TENNIS TUESDAY: Osaka Reaches World #4; Kiki Hits Top 10, Sabalenka at 11; Fed/Nole/Delpo Battle For #2 In Shanghai; Woz Wins Title #30

OSAKA, BERTENS, SABALENKA REACH CAREER HIGHS
2018 US Open champion Naomi Osaka reached World #4 in the rankings, matching the highest ever ranking by a Japanese female player (Kimiko Date). Osaka has played very well since becoming a major champion, reaching a final and semifinal in consecutive tournaments. Kiki Bertens cemented her career-best year by reaching the Top 10 for the first time on the back of winning 3 titles in 2018. She becomes the first Dutch woman to reach this height since Brenda Shultz-McCarthy. Bertens just edged out Aryna Sabalenka, who is at #11 in the rankings and clearly poised to go higher. Sabalenka was the only player to take a set off of Osaka in New York and won the Wuhan Open and followed that up by defeating Garbine Muguruza in Beijing, where she reached the quarterfinals. Sabalenka first reached the Top 100 for the first time almost exactly a year ago.

FEDERER, DJOKOVIC AND DEL POTRO IN RACE FOR WORLD #2.
The 2018 US Open finalists Novak Djokovic and Juan Martin del Potro are in the hunt to replace Roger Federer at the World #2 spot. Federer is the defending champion at the Shanghai Masters (which has one of the fastest court speeds on the ATP Tour). All Djokovic reaches the final in Shanghai he will be the new world #2, and has a chance to end the year at World #1 by doing well at the year-end championships in London, which he as won 5 times already. Del Potro has to hope the Serbian loses before the semifinals and that he wins the title to reach world #2. In the unlikely event that happens, a streak of 13 years where the top 2 spots have been held by members of the big 4  (Federer, Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray) will come to a close.

HALEP LIKELY TO END 2018 AS YEAR-END #1
Since Angie Kerber lost early in Beijing, Simona Halep should be able to maintain her lead at the top spot through the Year-End Tour Championships in Singapore. Wozniacki is the defending champion so she can't increase her points total to challenge Halep at the top of the WTA rankings, despite winning her 30th career title in Beijing last weekend.

2018 US OPEN: Women's Quarterfinals Preview

Here are my predictions for the women's quarterfinals at the US Open for 2018. Last year I correctly predicted 3 of 4 women's quarterfinals and correctly predicted 2 of 4 men's quarterfinals.  I also have  a prediction for the men's quarterfinals.

Serena Williams (USA) [17] Simona Halep (ROU) [1] vs. Karolina Pliskova (CZE) [8]. First I would like to recognize Kaia Kanepi, the hard-hitting veteran Estonian who took out my pick for the 2018 US Open title and played a nerveless, entertaining match against Serena Williams in the 4th round on Sunday despite losing the first set 6-0 in under 19 minutes. I believe that was exactly the match Serena needed to prepare her for this showdown with Karolina Pliskova who last beat her on this court just two years ago, in the 2016 US Open semifinals, just a few rounds after beating Venus Williams. last meeting in Stuttgart this year and they also split their 2 hard court matches. I saw Pliskova overwhelm Ash Barty the round before and she actually moves better than I expected (she's no Lindsay Davenport!) But Serena hates to lose to players in consecutive matches so she will be well prepared for this match. In some sense, her tough draw may actually have helped her raise the level of her game, which is approaching the level she was at pre-pregnancy. It's somewhat surprising these two have only played twice, so Serena has not really been active on the WTA tour as Pliskova became World #1 (briefly) and remains ensconced in the Top 10. As others have noted, one blaring hole in Serena's comeback to the tour this year has been her inability to win against Top 10 players this year and Pliskova will be her first she will be facing in New York. Despite that, I think Serena will find a way to reach yet another semifinal in New York.  PREDICTION: Williams.

 Anastasja Sevastova (LAT) [16] Elina Svitolina (UKR) [4] vs. Sloane Stephens (USA) [3]. This is a rematch of last year's quarterfinal which was quite a barnburner. Stephens had to come back from 1-3 down in the final set. Sevastova clearly plays her best tennis in New York and is completely unafraid of big stages. I saw her demolish the #7 seed Elina Svitolina in the relative obscurity of the Grandstand court on Saturday (winning 6-0 in the final set). We are no longer surprised by Stephens success in big matches, as her World #3 ranking and 2 major finals in the last 12 months have demonstrated. How the defending champ takes care of someone who gave her so much trouble last year will tell us a lot about whether Stephens will be able to defend her title as she most likely will face the ultimate test in Serena Williams. I believe she will beat Sevastova, but I don't think it's going to be easy. PREDICTION: Stephens.

Carla Suárez Navarro (ESP) [30] Maria Sharapova (RUS) [22] vs. Madison Keys (USA) [15].  It's a quirk  of fate that Suárez Navarro's birthday falls in early September, so she has often had to play very important matches in her career on this date. 5 years ago when she turned 25 she famously lost to Serena Williams without winning a single game. Things did not look good when she was scheduled to play Maria Sharapova at night in Arthur Ashe stadium, where the 5-time major champion was 23-0. However, Suárez Navarro  was undeterred and although it was not a pretty match (both players were serving horrendously) it was quite entertaining. The Spaniard is mostly known for her clay court prowess but she has reached multiple quarterfinals at all the slams but Wimbledon. She has a one-handed backhand and is a great mover. The result was that she was able to end Sharapova's streak and dismiss the Russian in straight sets. Her opponent will be another big hitting, big serving player who moves a bit better: Madison Keys. Keys continued her domination of Dominika Cibulkova who looked a bit tired after her upset of Angie Kerber on Saturday in three sets. The fact that Keys is undefeated against Cibulkova is mysterious; the Slovak is too good a mover to be blasted off the court, but typically this is what happens in their matches, because Cibulkova likes to do that to her opponents, and with Keys she faces someone who goes for broke even earlier than she does. Keys is 3-0 against each of the players she could face to reach her second consecutive US Open final: Suárez Navarro, Osaka or Tsurenko. Will she do better dealing with the mental expectations of success this year than last year? I hope so. PREDICTION: Keys. 

Naomi Osaka (JPN) [20] vs. Lesia Tsurenko (UKR). It looks like 2018 may finally be the year for the breakout by the biracial 20-year-old Naomi Osaka into the big leagues of women's tennis. She won Indian Wells in a battle of the youngsters by defeating Daria Kasatkina (and a bevy of Top 10 players). However the rest of her season has been pretty quiet until reaching New York where she has been making a lot of noise by cutting through the draw like a scythe, losing only 7 games in the first three rounds. In the 4th round she faced a fellow youngster, 20-year-old Aryna Sabalenka who has been the hottest player on tour for most of the American summer hard court season. The two played a see-saw match which involved multiple breaks of serve and swings of momentum in the deciding set and ended on a double fault. (Happily I was in the stands at Louis Armstrong watching with delight.) The tennis was tension-filled because both players knew that they would have to face an unseeded player in their quarterfinal to reach the 2018 US Open semifinal. It looked that opponent would be 19-year-old lefty Marketa Vondrousova from Czech Republic but somehow 30-year-old Lesia Tsurenko was able to battle back and survive the brutal sun and humidity yesterday on the Grandstand court to deny the youngster. I don't think she'll be able to do that again.  PREDICTION: Osaka. 

2018 US OPEN: Kerber(4), Zverev(4), Kvitova(5), Garcia(6), Ostapenko(10)

I am attending the US OPEN this weekend and was treated to some amazing matches and more than a handful of shocking upsets (especially on the women's side) on Saturday.

The most prominent results of the day were the departure of the #4 seeds on both sides of the draw, who both happen to be German: Angelique Kerber and Alexandra Zverev. The matches I saw in person with my Day Session ticket to Arthur Ashe (which provides general admission to Louis Armstrong and Grandstand) were: Roger Federer defeating Nick Kyrgios, Naomi Osaka defeating Aleksandra Sasnovitch (6-0 6-0!), Kei Nishikori beat Diego Schwartzman, Philip Kohlschreiber beat Zverev and Aryna Sabalenka beat Petra Kvitova.

Other upsets that I didn't see were Maria Sharapova extending her undefeated night match record to 23-0 with a straight sets win over Jelena Ostapenko, Dominika Cibulkova outlasting Kerber in 3 tight sets, Carolina Garcia losing a 3rd set tiebreak to Carla Suarez Navarro and Kiki Bertens losing to 19-year-old Czech Marketa Vondrousova in a 3rd set tiebreak. These results mean that there is no Top 10 player remaining in the bottom half of the Round of 16 draw:

• Carla Suarez Navarro-Maria Sharapova
• Madison Keys-Dominika Cibulkova
• Aryana Sabalenka-Naomi Osaka
• Marketa Vondrousova-Lesia Tsurenko

It does feature some ferocious hard-hitters though: Sharapova, Keys, Cibulkova, Sabalenka and Osaka all bludgeon the ball, so I imagine it would come down to movement I would give Cibulkova and Osaja the edge in that department. Also, speaking of NextGen, Sabalenka, Osaka and Vondousova are all 20 years old or younger. Meanwhile the Top half of the women's draw looks like this:

• Kaia Kanepi-Serena Williams
• Ash Barty-Karolina Pliskova
• Sloane Stephens-Eise Mertens
• Anastasija Sevastova-Elina Svitolina

Defending champion Sloane Stephens is still in the mix and so is 23-major champion Serna Williams but Serena has a rough draw with Halep-beater Kaia Kanepi and a potential Karolina Pliskova (who has beat her in New York two years ago in the 2016 semifinals) in the way of a major semifinal meeting with Stephens.

Meanwhile the men;s draw look like:

• Nadal-Basilashvili
• Thiem-Anderson
• Del Potro-Coric
• Isner-Raonic
• Cilic-Goffin
• Nishikori-Kohlschreiber
• Djokovic-Sousa
• Millman-Federer

So there are only 4 unseeded players remaining in the men's draw, representing 15 different countries, with Croatia represented twice. The top half of both draws play today. I'll be watching (again) in person!