2024 Oscars: My Predictions in the Top 8 Categories

Here is my annual prediction post for the 2023 Oscars, i.e. the 96th Academy Awards. I really just consider the Top 8 categories on the blog but I often play the Oscar prediction game like lots of other people (on other websites) where I think about all of the categories. I generally split my predictions into who I want to win versus (i.e. who I would vote for) as opposed to who I think will win (i.e. who the Academy voters will vote for).

In 2023 I predicted five of the top eight correctly. This year I have seen nine of the (bolded) 10 Best Picture nominees (haven't seen Killers of the Flower Moon and I don't really intend to). Five of the nine we saw on streaming (either Amazon Prime or Netflix).

Best Picture:

• "American Fiction" 
• "Anatomy of a Fall" 
• "Barbie"
• "The Holdovers"
• "Killers of the Flower Moon" 
• "Maestro"
• "Oppenheimer"
  
• "Past Lives"
• "Poor Things"
• "The Zone of Interest"
  

I have been a Christopher Nolan fan boy since his film Memento broke my brain in the early 2000s. I literally listen to the soundtrack of either Interstellar, Inception or The Dark Knight on every single flight I take. I am very psyched that Oppenheimer led the nominations this year with13 (Poor Things close behind with 11) and very confident this will be his year to win Picture and Director.

SHOULD WIN: Oppenheimer.
WILL WIN: Oppenheimer.

Director:

• Justine Triet (“Anatomy of a Fall”)
• Martin Scorsese (“Killers of the Flower Moon”) 
• Christopher Nolan (“Oppenheimer”) 
• Yorgos Lanthimos (“Poor Things”) 
• Jonathan Glazer(“The Zone of Interest”)
  

If this award was for "Most Directing" than Lanthimos would win for Poor Things. But Nolan won the DGA and there is a critial consensus his time has come (he's actually overdue, in my mind!)

SHOULD WIN: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer.

WILL WIN: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer.

Lead Actor:

• Bradley Cooper(“Maestro”)  
• Colman Domingo (“Rustin”) 
• Paul Giamatti (“The Holdovers”)
• Cillian Murphy (“Oppenheimer”) 
• Jeffrey Wright (“American Fiction”) 
  

It is a very rare occasion when there are two Black men in the Best Actor race, and they are both very deserving to be here, albeit at veru different stages of their career. I wish I could say one of them is going to win, but Cillian Murphy is pretty much a lock this year, having won most of the precursor awards that matter (Golden Globe and SAG). That being said, if I had a vote, I would vote for Jeffrey Wright, as  a career appreciation award, with Giamatti a close behind. The performance that I thought was the most amazing was Bradley Cooper's--he completely inhabits the role of Leonard Bernstein and your forget that Cooper is playing the role.

SHOULD WIN: Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction or Bradley Cooper, Maestro.

WILL WIN: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer.

Lead Actress:

• Annette Bening (“Nyad”) 
• Lily Gladstone (“Killers of the Flower Moon”) 
• Sandra Hüller (“Anatomy of a Fall”)
• Carey Mulligan (“Maestro”) 
• Emma Stone (“Poor Things”)

Only Emma Stone has won an Oscar before and she is the frontrunner for her revelator performance in Poor Things. But does she really belong in the pantheon of Double Best Actress winners like Katharine Hepburn (4), Meryl Streep (2), Jodie Foster (2), Sally Field (2) and Frances McDormand (3)? I have my doubts. This is why I think they Lily Gladstone will win as the first Native American winner, one year after Oscar crowned the first Asian American winner. However, if I was voting, I would give it to Hüller, whom I had never seen before this year and who is absolutely stunning in two European films this year that are noinated for Best Picture: The Zone of Interest and Anatomy of a Fall.

 

 SHOULD WIN: Sandra Huller, Anatomy of a Fall.

WILL WIN: Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon.

Supporting Actor:

• Sterling K. Brown (“American Fiction”) 
• Robert DeNiro  (“Killers of he Flower Moon”) 
• Robert Downey, Jr. (“Oppenheimer”)
• Ryan Gosling (“Barbie”) 
• Mark Ruffalo (“Poor Things”) 

Here DeNiro has (of course) won Oscars before, including in this category and been nominated  a total of 9 times. This is Sterling K. Brown's first Oscar nomination but he has won 3 Emmy awards. The frontrunner is Downey, and he is a key reason why Oppenheimer works so well despite its 3-hour running time. Ruffalo is devouring the scenery in Poor Things, and going against his type as an affable guy. But if I was voting I would vote for Gosling's Ken, without which Barbie would not be as effective at all.

SHOULD WIN: Ryan Gosling, Barbie

WILL WIN: Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer.

Supporting Actress:

• Emily Blunt (“Oppenheimerr”) 
• Danielle Brooks (“The Color Purple”) 
• America Ferrera (“Barbie”)
• Jodie Foster (“Nyad”) 
• Da'Vine Joy Randolph (“The Holdovers”)

Again, very psyched to see two black actors in the same category! This time one of them is the rontrunner: Randolp has won most of the precursor awards and she is one of the best things about The Holdovers--without her it would have been basically been a TV movie.

SHOULD WIN: Da'Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers.

WILL WIN: Da'Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers.

Adapted Screenplay:

• “American Fiction,” Written for the screen by Cord Jefferson
  
• “Barbie,” Written by Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach
  
• “Oppenheimer,” Written for the Screen by Christopher Nolan
  
• “Poor Things,” Screenplay byTony McNamara
  
• “The Zone of Interest,” Written by Jonathan Glazer 
  

This is one category Oppenheimer is definitely going to lose, because Nolan is definitely going to win Director and there's no reason to give him THREE Oscars (since he will lamost certainly win Best Picture as well). American Fiction is the standout here, although if Oscar voters may want to make sure that the creative force behind the Billion Dollar Barbie movie gets some recognition, this is their prime opportunity to do so.

 

SHOULD WIN: American Fiction.

WILL WIN: Barbie.

Original Screenplay:

• “Anatomy of a Fall,” Screenplay by Justine Triet and Arthur Harari
• “The Holdovers,” Written by David Hemingson
  
• “Maestro,” Written by Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer
• “May December,” screenplay by Samy Burch; story by Samy Burch and Alex Mechanik
• “Past Lives,” Written by Celine Song

I love when directors are also screenwiters and in this case Past Lives, Anatomy of a Fall and Maestro fit the bill. I didn't see May December (but intended to, and still do) but in my opinion the strongest of the bunch is Anatomy of a Fall. It looks like it must be based on prior material, but it's a completely original idea--very well-executed by Triet, who becomes one of the few women in Oscar history to be nominated for Directing.

SHOULD WIN: Anatomy of a Fall.

WILL WIN: Anatomy of a Fall.

FILM REVIEW: Sicario

I've been a big fan of director Denis Villeneuve since I saw Incendies and the emotionally complex film became one of my favorites of 2011. I also saw his 2013 film Prisoners (starring Hugh Jackman, Jake Gyllenhaal, Viola Davis, Paul Dano, Terrence Howard and Maria Bello) which is a taut thriller about suspicion and kidnapping. Both Incendies and Prisoners have very good ratings from rottentomatoes.com (92% and 81%, respectively).

Villeneuve is back this year with Sicario, (starring Emily Blunt, Benicio Del Toro, and Josh Brolin) a thriller about the drug war. Sicario is also critically acclaimed, with a rottentomatoes.com rating of 93%.

The film revolves around Blunt's character who is an FBI agent who is pressured into volunteering for an inter-agency Task Force to work with characters played by Brolin and Del Toro after she discovers a house in a Phoenix suburb with dozens of corpses that are directly linked to a Mexican drug cartel.

The story (written by Taylor Sheridan) proceeds at breakneck pace, as both we and Blunt's character are swept along by events, crossing the border from the United States to Mexico and back again to retrieve a person we are old is a person of interest in the ongoing investigation, without much more of an explanation as to what is going on and why. Eventually we are told that Brolin's character is ostensibly trying to cause a big enough of a ruckus so that the head of the cartel that was responsible for the bodies found in the Phoenix area will take notice and make a move that would expose him to capture by law enforcement.

However things are not what they seem and eventually it becomes clear that the motives of the characters played by Brolin and Del Toro are not completely aligned with those of the FBI and Blunt's character. This is exposed in a harrowing sequence where all of the main characters go into a long drug-running tunnel where some surprising (and very violent) events occur and Blunt's suspicions are confirmed.

Overall, Sicario is suspenseful, adrenaline-pumping ride which depicts the realities and ethical dilemmas of the drug war with compelling verisimilitude.

Title: Sicario.
Director: Denis Villeneuve.
Running Time: 121 minutes.
MPAA Rating: Rated R for strong violence, grisly images, and language.
Release Date: October 2, 2015.
Viewing Date: November 27, 2015.

Writing: A-.
Acting: A-.
Visuals: A+.
Impact: B+.

Overall Grade: A/A- (3.75/4.0)

MOVIE REVIEW: Edge of Tomorrow

This summer has been somewhat disappointing to me in the number of summer blockbusters I have been interested in seeing. Maybe I'm just getting older  but I really don't have much interest in seeing the any Transformers movie, or the new reboot of Spider-Man or the sequel to How To Train Your Dragon, even though these may be fine movie. Some of the movies I thought I would want to see ended up getting pretty mediocre reviews on rottentomatoes.com (like Godzilla: 74%, A Million Ways To Die in The West: 17%) since generally I won't see anything that is not above an 80% rating. I did enjoy X-Men: Days of Future Past (which has a 92% rating). Really the only other movie I've seen from this year is the interesting The Grand Budapest Hotel (91% rating).

I really did not expect to go see the new Tom Cruise flick Edge of Tomorrow but when I found out that it had a 90% rating on rottentomatoes.com I was intrigued. When I discovered that it was science fiction and Emily Blunt was in it, I decided to go with some of my friends on July 4th to see it. Apparently we were the exceptions to the rule because the Hollywood trades are full of stories bemoaning the pitiful box-office for this usually boffo weekend.

Edge of Tomorrow is an adaptation of the Japanese novella titled All You Need Is Kill published in 2009. Tom Cruise plays Major William Cage, an American public-relations officer who is sent over to England on the eve of a huge united assault by human forces against an alien invasion which has basically decimated most of western Europe. Emily Blunt plays Rita Vrataski, a soldier whose fighting exploits are near legendary and whose story Cage has used effectively in the media to encourage hundreds of thousands of people to sign up to fight the alien invaders, known as "Mimics." Blunt is known as "The Angel of Verdun" for basically singlehandedly saving dozens of lives against overwhelming odds and as "Full Metal Bitch" by others. Her image is on recruitment posters seen throughout the film.

The story proceeds with Maj. Cage waking up on a helicopter on his way to London to meet  General Brigham (Brendan Gleeson), the commander of International United Defense Forces (IUDF). Cage is told at that meeting (much to his surprise and dismay since he has no combat training whatsoever) that he being sent to the front lines of tomorrow's surprise attack on the enemy in France. Cage's deployment to the front goes wrong within seconds and he is killed within minutes of anding on the shore when the enemy responds with surprisingly vicious (and effective) force to the IUDF sneak attack. Amazingly, Cage wakes up and proceeds to relive the 24 hours from the time he regains consciousness before the surprise attack over and over again. It's like a mash-up of Groundhog Day with Full Metal Jacket. Eventually he finds Vrataski and the discovers that she had previously experienced the same time loop phenomenon and they try to figure out how to exploit this fact to defeat the Mimics.

The time loop is depicted in a nice way, with minimal exposition (although of course it doesn't make much actual sense) but the best part of this aspect of the movie is that Cage's deaths (time line resets) are depicted in a humorous fashion where basically at the drop of a hat Vrataski will threaten Cage with a bullet to the head in order to reset the time line.

There is a nice bit of misdirection in the third act which I was surprised by and then the film ends with some exciting set action pieces. All in all, I was pleasantly surprised by the high quality of Edge of Tomorrow.

Title: Edge of Tomorrow.
Director: Doug Liman.
Running Time: 1 hour, 53 minutes.
MPAA Rating: Rated PG-13 for intense sequences of sci-fi action and violence, language and brief suggestive material.
Release Date: June 6, 2014.
Viewing Date: July 4, 2014.

Writing: B.
Acting: A-.
Visuals: B+.
Impact: B.

Overall Grade: B+/B (3.25/4.0).

MOVIE REVIEW: Looper

Recently I went out with co-workers to the same AMC movie theaters in the Courthouse section of Arlington that I saw Clint Eastwood's J. Edgar and Woody Allen's To Rome With Love. The movie theaters were pretty run-down and sorta nondescript but the company was good and the movies were okay.

This time when we entered the movie theater we discovered it had been radically transformed through an astonishingly luxurious (and expensive-looking) renovation. Atleast half the seats had been removed and replaced with cushy, red leather recliners that were more comfortable than the seats on most Business or First Class flights. Astonishingly, the price of the film has not gone up. I have now discovered my favorite place to see a movie in the Washington, D.C. area, perhaps in the country are the AMC Courthouse 8 theaters. Even in Los Angeles, a movie-going mecca, only the Arclight Cinemas have the level of service and style (individual seat reservations, gourmet food at the concessions, knowledgeable ushers!) equivalent to the newly renovated AMC theaters in Courthouse. But Arclight charges a premium (about $14 a ticket) for these enhanced amenities, while the AMC Courthouse tickets are just $10.75 ($11.25 for real3d). It's quite a bargain.

Looper has a very healthy rating of 93% on rottentomatoes.com among critics. It also features a stellar cast which includes Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Bruce Willis, Emily Blunt, Paul Dano and Jeff Daniels. The film is written and directed by Rian Johnson and it is his vision which is the primary creative force behind the film.

One of the best aspects of the film is its visuals, which are outstanding. The film is set in 2044, in Kansas City, and the art direction and set dressing is managed cleverly to indicate the future without being too obvious or visually obtrusive about it. There are subtle touches, like the ubiquitous presence of solar panels, on cars and buildings as well as a general sense of decay which communicates that the film is depicting a very different world from our own. The costume designer cleverly has most of the characters dress in styles that we would recognize now and the script explains that "retro" fashion is very popular.

The most important aspect of the film is its plot, which simply is about Joe (Gordon-Levitt's character) failing to shoot Bruce Willis' character, who is Joe from 2074. Joe is a "looper," someone who shoots the people who bad guys from the future send back periodically. Eventually, he knows that the person sent back will be himself and he is expected to shoot his future self and "close the loop." Because this fails it leads to some typical mind-bending time-travel induces paradoxes, but the real impact of the film is given by Old Joe's relationship with a woman he meets during the 30 years of life he experiences before he shows back up to screw up Joe's life in 2044 as well as Joe's relationship with a woman and a young boy who (may) hold the secret to why 2074 is so messed up and why recently a lot of loopers are suddenly having their loops closed. The tension between Joe and Old Joe, who are technically the same person, but in different time lines with very different agendas, is an absolute scorcher of a central idea to wrap a movie around, and Rian Johnson pulls it off in style.

Overall, Looper is a surprisingly good science fiction thriller with a complex central twist that is effectively and stylishly executed.

Title: Looper.
Director: Rian Johnson.
Running Time: 1 hour, 59 minutes.
MPAA Rating: Rated R for strong violence, language, some sexuality/nudity and drug content. Release Date: September 28, 2012.
Viewing Date: October 23, 2012.

Writing: A-.
Acting: A.
Visuals: A+.
Impact: A-.

 Overall Grade: A/A- (3.917/4.0).