2019 WIMBLEDON: Women's Final Preview (and Semifinals Review)

Serena Williams (USA) [11] vs Simona Halep (ROU) [7]

This is my prediction post for the 2019 Wimbledon women's final. Last year I did not predict that Angie Kerber would defeat Serena Williams. This year I correctly predicted the results of  2 of 2 men's semifinals, 2 of 2 women's semifinals, 4 of 4 men's quarterfinals and 3 of 4 women's quarterfinals. 

WOMEN'S SEMIFINALS REVIEW

Serena Williams (USA) [11] d. Barbora Strycova (CZE) 6-1 6-2.  This was a devastating performance by Serena; she had 28 winners to just 10 errors. Although there was much ink spilled about how Strycova was replacing Roberta Vinci as the oldest first-time major semifinalist and what this might portend for Serena's chances to win this match. However, by playing first-strike tennis Serena was able to rush her opponent and not give her a chance to deploy her net-based skills and tricky spins Strycova also did not player her best. She attempted multiple drop shots that failed to clear her side of the net and suffered double faults at inopportune times. For Serena it was an awe-inspiring performance.

Simona Halep (ROU) [7] d. Elina Svitolina (UKR) [8] 6-1 6-3. Each of the first two games of this match were extremely high quality and were tense, 10-minute affairs that featured over 10 deuces between them, and multiple break points and game points and very long rallies. But Halep won both of these games and did not look back from there as she served out the set quickly. In the second set Svitolina put up much more fight but once the first break happened Halep took advantage and never looked back.

WOMEN'S FINAL PREVIEW

Despite now holding the record for the oldest woman to appear in a major final, Serena has to be considered the overwhelming favorite to win her 24th major title. Serena has a dominant 9-1 head-to-head record against Simona Halep. But this is the third time in a year when she had an opportunity to win her 24th major title and in the first two (2018 Wimbledon loss to Angie Kerber and 2018 US Open loss to Naomi Osaka) Serena was unable to play anywhere close to her best tennis. Most observers attributed these results to Serena's nervousness and tension caused by finally confirming her G.O.A.T status by winning her 24th title. I agree that the emotional/mental side was part of the reason she lost those matches (especially the  US Open final) but also she never looked like she was moving as well as she has in the past and her serve was not as effective as it has been in this tournament. With all that said, I think Halep has a non-trivial chance to win the match. The courts are playing more like a clay court and Halep is a better mover than Serena on clay (or slow) courts. She will get a lot of balls back in play and this may frustrate Serena if she has to hit 2 or 4 winners to win the point. But I think Serena will be mentally prepared and physically to do so. MadProfessah's pick: Serena.  

2018 FRENCH OPEN: Simona Halep Wins 1st Major (Over Sloane Stephens)

As I predicted, World #1 Simona Halep of Romania won her first major title today, defeating American Sloane Stephens 3-6 6-4 6-1. This was a seesaw match that resembled last year's final with Jelena Ostaphenko but this time Halep was the one who came back from a set and break down to even the match and then ran away with the deciding set as Stephens seemed to tire and lose focus as she lost the first five games and then avoided the bagel by holding once but lost the match when Halep easily served it out to win the championship.

Halep joins great players like Chris Evert and Kim Clijsters who lost their first 3 major finals and then went on to win multiple majors. She strengthens her case as the best player in the world, having been ranked #1 for most of the last year and is now also a major champion.

HOW THE FINAL WAS WON
The match began with Halep looking extremely tight and making several unforced errors in the first game. One of Stephens' strengths is her metal equanimity and she calmly broke early and consolidated it to go up 3-1. Play stayed on serve with Sloane making very few errors and Halep pressing and overhitting; she lost the set 6-3. She then had the worst possible start to the second set by losing her serve and Sloane again consolidated and went up 2-0. Then, amazingly in the 4th game, serving 2-1 up, Sloane appeared to get nervous and and started making errors to lose the next three games and go down 2-4. However, the plot twists continued because now Halep was unable to maintain her lead and was broken while serving up 4-3 and the score was tied all up at 4-all. Halep then held her serve and in the 10th game earned a breakpoint which was a set point. She won the point and the match was dead even. Stephens definitely looked shaken and Hlep looked determined. She got behind in the first service game of the third set but was able to hold and after that really didn't look back, racing out to a 5-0 lead and eventually won the match 6-1 in the 3rd.

Mathematical Analysis of Women's Tennis Open-Era Challenges Serena's GOAT Status

On the eve of the start of her campaign to secure her 22nd major title, fourth of the year, Serena Williams's claim to the title of Greatest of all Time is being analyzed in an article at Five Thirty Eight titled "Serena Williams And The Difference Between All-Time Great And Greatest Of All Time." The article uses a particular mathematical technique called computing an ELO rating to assign a number (which varies over time) to the relative strength of players in head-to-head competition. The graph of all the major champions (Navratilova, Evert, Graf, Seles, Henin, Venus and Serena) are depicted.

From the graph it can be shown that Serena does not achieve the highest ELO rating of all time.

Elo definitely puts Williams in the top tier of female tennis players, but it tells a slightly more muted story than other measures. In particular: While Williams has been great, and has been doing unprecedented things for a player of her age, the relative weakness of the tier of players beneath her undermines her GOAT claim. 

The possibility that Serena has benefited from “weaker competition” is pretty conventional, and certainly debatable, but Elo gives us a useful way to examine exactly what that possibility means and what it implies.
For the unfamiliar, Elo is a rating method originally developed for chess, but eminently suitable for tennis. It’s very simple: Two players enter a match with Elo ratings based on their prior results. Elo uses their ratings to predict their head-to-head outcome, and then updates those ratings depending on the outcome.² It’s not without limitations: Elo makes every head-to-head prediction based solely on the two players’ ratings, which, in turn, are only affected by previous match results.

However, one aspect of Serena which makes her career unique is her 2nd peak in her ELO rating, which has happened at an unprecedented stage of her career, in her 30s. It also claims that Serena was at her best in 2003 (when she won her first Serena slam).

I understand that these results will disappoint some and encourage others but I appreciate the analysis in that bring at least a measure of quantitative rigor to a discussion which is essentially Qualitiative and subject in nature: Who is the Greatest of all Time? In my mind, the figures STILL indicate hat the answer is Serena Williams.

2015 FRENCH OPEN: Serena Wins 20th Major, 3rd FO Despite Losing Huge Lead Over Safarova

As I predicted, Serena Williams won her 20th major title, her 3rd French Open at Roland Garros, by defeating Lucie Safarova. The win means that she becomes the second player in the open era (after Steffi Graf) to win at least 20 major titles, and that she has won the last three major tournament. If she wins Wimbledon in a month, she will have her second Serena slam, and it is very possible she could complete the calendar Grand Slam by then winning the U.S. Open (for the fourth consecutive year).

However, the match itself was anything but predictable. After hitting the ball cleanly and powerfully for a full hour and wracking up an apparently insurmountable lead at 6-3, 4-1, 40-15 serving, Serena (as she herself put it) "choked." Safarova hit a screaming return winner at that point and Serena started putting the ball into the net and suddenly she couldn't buy a first serve and started double faulting. Okay, we thought, it's a good thing she's up an insurance break, surely she will right the ship when serving at 4-3? Nope! She double-faulted multiple times, including on break point and again Safarova held, to go up 5-4 in the second set. Seren played a strong service game and broke Safarova to serve for the championship, getting to 30-15 (2 points away!) before Safarova struck back again, hitting powerful ground strokes and earning weak replies to break Serena and take the match to a middle set tiebreak. Safarova had played 5 tiebreaks in the tournament to date and won all 5 of them, and the sixth was no different, with Serena continuing to have service difficulties, including a double fault and no aces.

Amazingly the drama was not complete, because Serena started the third set by unceremoniously losing her serve, which Safarova consolidated. Serena at this point was absolutely livid, and received a code violation for the numerous and vociferous expletives she hurled into the Paris sunshine. It must have worked because the American was able to rattle off 6 consecutive games (a repeat of what she did last Saturday when she was down 0-2 in the final set against Victoria Azarenka in the 3rd round) and won the match and the championship 6-3 6-7(3) 6-2.

Serena is now 31-1 for the year and is on a  21-match winning streak at the major tournaments dating back to the 2014 U.S. Open.

TENNIS TUESDAY: Djokovic Skips Madrid; Kerber On Clay Hot Streak; Isner Turns 30; Mauresmo On Maternity Leave

Kerber On 11-Match Winning Streak On Clay; Keys, Sharapova, Wozniacki In Her Wake
Building on her win on the green clay of Charleston a few weeks by coming back from 1-4 down in the final set to defeat Madison Keys, German Angelique Kerber has been absolutely on fire during the clay season so far. She defeated the reigning French Open champion on Thursday and then continued her winning ways by coming back from 3-5 down in the final against Caroline Wozniacki to ride the hometown crowd support to snatch the Stuttgart title. This is her 5th career title and she had to defeat two Top 5 players to do it, which she did in two 3-set thrillers.

John Isner Turns 30
John Isner had a big birthday on Sunday, turning thirty years old. The Top American has not made as much an impact in the majors as Andy Roddick but in this era of men's tennis it is very possible for 30-somethings to have success on the tour and hoping that continues with Isner in the next few years.

Djokovic Says Enough Is Enough; Gives Someone Else A Chance To Win Something!
After winning the first three Masters series titles of 2015, World #1 Novak Djokovic has decided to withdraw from next week's Madrid Masters. Since he also didn't play last year he is not losing any ranking points. I'm sure the rest of men's field thanks Nole and wishes him a peaceful week!

Mauresmo Is Pregnant And Taking Time Off From Coaching Andy Murray 
Andy Murray has made an important statement for women's equality in sports by naming former WTA #1 Amelie Mauresmo as his coach. Mauresmo, 35,  announced recently that she is expecting her first child in August, and while she is on maternity leave (an issue which has never come up before for the coach of an elite men's player) she will be replaced (temporarily) by Jonas Bjorkman.

Wawrinka Getting Divorced And Nobody's Happy
Stan Wawrinka had previously separated from his wife (ostensibly in order to focus on his tennis) but later reconciled well before he won his first Grand Slam title in Australia last year. Recently he announced that the two are definitely getting divorced and his wife issued a statement of her own clarifying her side of the story. His results have been spotty in 2015, with the former World #3 now down to #9 in the latest rankings.

Serena Officially 3rd Longest Stay At #1 (Behind Steffi and Martina)
Serena Williams has now been World #1 for 114 weeks in a row, which is third all-time, behind Martina Navratilova's 156 weeks (3 solid years!!) and Steffi Graf's 186 weeks and just 1 week ahead of Chris Evert's 113 weeks. Her current streak is exactly twice as long as her longest previous hold on the #1 ranking at 57 weeks. She has been #1 on 6 different occasions in her career. In her current #1 streak only 8 players have beaten her, but bizarrely Alize Cornet has done so three times!

2015 MIAMI: Serena Wins 66th Title, 8th In Miami, Now On 21-Match Win Streak

As I predicted, World #1 Serena Williams defeated Carla Suarez Navarro to win her record 8th Miami Open title, the 66th of her storied career. The score was 6-2 6-0, but really there was only something like 15-20 minutes of tension because after 5 consecutive holds of serve, Serena broke to go up 4-2 and never looked back, winning the next 8 consecutive games to close out the match and remains officially undefeated in 2015 (18-0) and was won the last 21 she played.  It should be noted that she defaulted her Indian wells semifinals against Simona Halep two weeks ago. Her last official loss on the WTA Tour was 22 matches ago in the round-robin of the Year End Championships in Singapore, when she lost 6-0 6-2 to Halep.

This is the first tournament Serena now won eight times, including the last three years (2015, 2014, 2013, 2008, 2007, 2004, 2003, 2002). Her win also insures that she will extend her reign at #1 to go past 113 weeks and jump past Chris Evert to the #3 position for most consecutive weeks at #1 (Martina Navratilova is at 156 and Steffi Graf is at 186). She is at #4 on the WTA Tour titles list (Martina at 167, Evert at 157, Graf at 110).

2015 AUS OPEN: Serena Beats Sharapova For 16th Consecutive Time To Win 19th Major

As I predicted yesterday, Serena Williams defeated Maria Sharapova for the 16th match in a row to win her 6th Australian Open and 19th grand slam title, 6-3 7-6(5). This win means that Serena is now only 3 behind Steffi Graf's 22 majors and improves to an incredible 19-4 in major finals and an undefeated 6-0 in Australian Open finals.

For Sharapova, the #2 player in the world it must be frustrating to have had so many opportunities and so many losses in the last 11 years. However, on the bright side, this was one of the Russian's better performances against Serena. It was only the third tiebreak set in 42 sets the two have played against each other, and one of the very few where Serena has failed to break her serve, despite having multiple opportunities, including one at 4-5 that was a Championship point! 

In the second set, Serena started hitting more errors, but also, more aces. In the first set she hit 3 aces and 3 doubles faults, but in the second set she had only one double fault and hit 15 aces (including one on her third championship point, the first on her own serve). At some point in the future (although probably not in a major final) Sharapova will reverse the streak (I think). Another thing Sharapova can look forward to is that she is 5 years younger than Serena and can possibly have success when Serena either exits the stage or her game starts to deteriorate with age.

As for now, though, Serena looks well placed to reach or exceed Graf's 22 majors and possibly even Margaret Court's 24!

2014 US OPEN: Serena Wins 18th Major, 3rd Consecutive U.S. Open

As I predicted, Serena Williams defeated her good friend Caroline Wozniacki in the final of the 2014 U.S. Open, winning her 18th major championship, 3rd consecutive in New York City. Serena won in dominant fashion, 6-3 6-3, despite a nervous first set that saw her barely making more than 1-in-3 first serves and featured 5 breaks of serve in the first 6 games. After that, both players settled down, and once Serena's service percentage went up, she concentrated on maintaining her early break advantage in the final set by serving powerfully and pushing her opponent all over the court,, eventually ending the match on another service break two points after a thrilling 26-stroke rally that the American also won.

Serena's win was the 5th time that she has won a major title without dropping a set--in fact no player won more than 3 games in a single set with her all tournament long. Winning 18 majors means that she will go down in history as a legendary American tennis player, currently tied with the great Chris Evert and Martina Navratilova and could possibly catch up to Steffi Graf's 22 before she retires. At age 32 (just a few weeks before her 33rd birthday) Serena is the oldest major champion since Navratilova won her ninth(!) Wimbledon title at age 33 in 1990.

Currently ranked #1 and threatening to play until at least the Rio Olympics in 2016, Serena has a decent chance of reaching at least 20 titles.

2014 US OPEN: Women's Final Preview

Here are my predictions for the women's final at the 2014 US Open. This year I have correctly predicted 2 of 2 women's semifinals, 2 of 4 women's quarterfinals, 0 of 2 men's semifinals and 3 of 4 men's quarterfinals at the U.S. Open. Last year I correctly predicted Serena Williams would defeat Victoria Azarenka in the 2013 U.S. Open women's final.

WHAT HAPPENED: Women's Semifinal Review

Serena Williams (USA) [1] d. Ekaterina Makarova (RUS) [17] 6-1 6-3. Serena Williams got revenge for her loss to Makarova in the doubles draw by opening up a can of whoops a** in their singles match. Serena had lost to the lefty Russian in a major before so she took this match very serious and was never in any danger of losing, enjoying hefty leads in both sets. Serena ended the match with 24 winners to only 15 unforced errors.

Caroline Wozniacki (DEN) [10] d. Shuai Peng (CHN) 7-6(1) 4-3 (ret.). As expected, Wozniacki was able to reach her second career major final by outlasting Peng Shuai. However, what was unexpected was the near-farcical manner in which the match concluded when Peng collapsed on the court due to heat exhaustion after leaving the court for 10 minutes prior where she was assessed and treated by medical professionals. The match ended with a retirement from Peng and soon after she was removed from the court in wheelchair!

WHAT WILL HAPPEN: Women's Final Preview

Serena Williams (USA) [1] vs Caroline Wozniacki (DEN) [10].  Serena boasts an 8-1 head-to-head over her gal pal Caro and has to be highly favored to finally win the 18th major title of her career. The main problem for Wozniacki is that she has no weapon that  Serena has to fear. Wozniacki's best chance to win the match (which certainly is possible) is if she is able to absorb and redirect her opponent's power and ultimately frustrate Serena into making too many unforced errors. 
This is unlikely to happen because Serena does not have to bring out her overwhelming weaponry to overpower Caroline. 

It is significant that the two have met twice in the last three weeks and both matches were tight, tough 3-set affairs decided late in the 3rd set. It is also true, that mentally, more pressure will be on Serena, because she will be expected to win this match. For Wozniacki no one ever thought she would reach another major final, so just by reaching the final she has exceeded expectations. However, as Billie Jean King says, "Pressure is a privilege" and I'm confident Serena will get through the pressure situation to win her 3rd consecutive title in New York, and record 18th overall, tying the mark of Martina Navratilova and Chris Evert. PREDICTION: Williams.

TENNIS TUESDAY: Serena,Sveta,Raonic Win Titles; Ivanovic Returns To Top 10

Serena Williams came back from 1-5 down in the first set of the final of the Bank of the West Classic at Stanford University against Angelique Kerber, saved two set points and won the match 7-6(1) 6-3 to win her 4th title of 2014. It was both competitors fourth final appearance of the year but Serena has not lost a final and Kerber is yet to win one. Serena, playing in her first tournament back after her disastrous French Open and Wimbledon results, confirmed her #1 ranking, which she has now held for an astonishing 200 weeks in her career. Only Steffi Graf (377), Martina Navratilova (332), Chris Evert (260) and Martina Hingis (209) have held the top spot longer. Serena now has 61 career titles, having won earlier this year in Rome (d. Errani), Miami (d. Na) and Brisbane (d. Azarenka).

Also wining titles this weekend were Sveta Kuznetova, who won her first title in four years by outlasting tough competitor Karumi Nara 6-3 4-6 6-4 in the final of the Citi Open in Washington, DC. It was vindication for the 2-time major champion, who led 3-0 in the second set. It was just Kuznetsova's 14th career title. Last year, I attended the men's final of the D.C. tournament, seeing John Isner lose to Juan Martin del Potro in three sets. This year it was an all-Canadian affair, with Milos Raonic defeating Vasek Pospisil 6-1 6-4.

Raonic is now at #6 in the world, just two slots above fellow "Young Gun" Grigor Dimitrov who moves up to World #8. The Top 5 was unchanged with injured del Potro making his way out of the Top10.

For the women, Ana Ivanovic returns to the Top 10 after a 4-year absence, while Serena celebrates her  200th week at #1. Next week, 2014 French Open finalist Simona Halep will rise to #2 because Li Na has withdrawn from the entire summer hard court season (Canada, Cincinnati and New York) with an injury.

2013 WTA YEC: Serena vs Li Na In Final

As expected, Serena Williams continued her recent undefeated streak by outlasting Jelena Jankovic 6-4 2-6 6-4 in the semifinals of the TEB BNP Paribas WTA Championships in Istanbul. Williams will face Li Na, who defeated the 2011 WTA Championships winner Petra Kvitova 6-4 6-2. With her win, Li will reach world #3 for the first time, becoming the highest ranked player of Asian descent, male or female.

Serena was clearly physically hampered in her match with Jankovic, who is one of the rare players on tour to have beaten Serena four times and matches up well with her. Oddly, both players ended the match with an equal number of winners and errors, 40 each for Williams and 22 each for Jankovic. But somehow Serena was able to gut out her record 77th win of the year.

In the final, Serena has a 9-1 head-to-head advantage over Li Na, although the two have played some relatively close matches this year that were decided by a single service break or less per set. With Serena ailing and Li Na ascendant, this is probably the Chinese player's best chance to score  a big win over Serena.

However, Serena is playing in her 6th year-end championship (having won 3 times before, including last year) while Li Na is playing in her first. Serena is playing for history, since only Chris Evert (4), Steffi Graf (6) and Martina Navratilova (8) have won more than four year-end championships.

MadProfessah's prediction: Serena.

2013 US OPEN: Serena Defeats Vika To Win 17th Major Title

As I predicted earlier today, World #1 Serena Williams outlasted World #2 Victoria Azarenka to win her 17th major title and 5th U.S. Open women's singles championship. The final score was 7-5 6-7(6) 6-1 and at 2 hours and 45 minutes is the longest women's final since 1980, when duration records started being kept.

The win puts her major title total at seventeen, just one behind fellow all-time great American players Martina Navratilova and Chris Evert, and resulted in one-day payday of $3.6 million, $2.6 million for winning the US Open women's singles championship itself and an extra $1 million bonus for winning the US Open Series. That is the single largest payday in women's tennis history and is larger than the career earnings of every single active American male player.

In addition, Serena now has 67 wins and 4 losses (2 to her final opponent  Azarenka) on the year, including 9 WTA tour titles to add to her career haul of 55. The win also cements her World #1 ranking and assures she will end the year as #1, having won two majors in a calendar year for the 6th time and defending a major title for only the 4th time.

2013 FRENCH OPEN: Serena Wins 2nd FO Title; 16th Major

As I predicted, Serena Williams won her second French Open title, exactly 11 years after her first, by defeating the defending 2012 champion Maria Sharapova 6-4 6-4 and claim her 16th major title.

How It Happened
The match was a surprisingly close affair, despite Serena winning the first three points on Sharapova's serve to go up triple breakpoint in the very first game. Sharapova escaped that game with some clutch serving, including some powerful second serves. Amazingly, the very next game Serena was broken to begin the championship match with 0-2 deficit. She missed a lot of first serves just long and Sharapova returned well and traded powerful groundstrokes with Serena until an error resulted. However, Serena was able to break Sharapova in her next service game and hold her own to nudge ahead 3-2. Serving at 4-3 Serena was broken again by some strong play from Sharapova but Serena buckled down and broke back and then calmly served out the first set to go up 6-4.

In the second set Serena started serving well so all the pressure was on Sharapova's service games. Serena had five break points in Sharapova's first service game but again the Russian was able to hold, this time with some strong baseline play and forehand errors from Serena. However, in the next service game Serena was able to break and hold serve to go up 3-1. Serena tried to get a double break in the 5th game but when Sharapova held Serena just calmly held serve the rest of the way, including an ace on championship point.

Serena ended with 10 aces and no doubles faults (compared to Sharapova's 2 aces and four double faults) and 29 winners to 20 unforced errors (Sharapova had 10 winners and 17 unforced errors). There was no question that Serena was the better player, but the fact that it was not a blowout is a testament to Sharapova's tenacity and mental toughness (and improved movement).

Implications
Serena's 16th major (5 Australian, 2 French, 5 Wimbledon, 4 US Open) puts her within striking distance of the 18 held by Martina Navratilova and Chris Evert. She has now won every grand slam singles and doubles title multiple times. She improves to 16-4 in major finals and 14-2 lifetime over Sharapova. It was her 52nd WTA career title.

At age 31, Serena is the oldest female player to win a major title since Martina Navartilova won the 1990 Wimbledon at age 33. If she really does play until the 2016 Olympics in Rio de Janeiro, she may even match Steffi Graf's haul of 22 major titles and will almost certainly end her career with more titles than Roger Federer.

Celebrity Friday: Li Na On Cover Of Time Magazine

Li Na has been named as one of the 100 most influential people in the world by Time magazine and chosen to be one of the 7 alternate covers for the special double issue of the news magazine. Chris Evert wrote the blurb about the 2011 French Open champion:

Li Na is a maverick. Who else would stand up to the centralized Chinese sports system as Li did, back in 2008, when she pushed for more control over her career? Li persuaded the Chinese Tennis Association (CTA) to start the “fly alone” policy, which gives players more independence. Now they keep more of their money, giving just a fraction of their earnings to the CTA, compared with the bulk before. Rather than let the bureaucrats pick her coach, Li went with Jiang Shan, who is now her husband. Li has soared. She’s ranked fifth in the world and won the 2011 French Open, becoming the first Asian-born player to win a Grand Slam singles tournament.

Congratulations to Li Na!

WTA TOUR FINALS: Serena Wins 3rd YEC, 58-4 in 2012

As expected, Serena Williams continued her domination of the top of women's tennis by dismissing World #2 Maria Sharapova 6-4 6-3 to win her 3rd WTA Tour year-end championships. This was Serena's 7th title of 2012 and her 58th tour win for the year (balanced with an awe-inspiring low total of only 4 losses).

Serena again re-affirmed her domination of Sharapova, winning her 10th match in 12 meetings (the only losses to the Russian coming in two huge matches, the 2004 Wimbledon final and the 2004 WTA Tour year-end championship match, when Sharapova was a teenage phenom). You read that right, Serena has not lost to the 4-time major champion for 8 long years, and they both know it every time they step on to court together. Playing Sharapova concentrates Serena's mind so that her unforced errors drop precipitously while her deadly accuracy and power remain, a lethal combination which resulted in 40 winners (to a mere 14 errors) in the 89 minute championship match, while never even facing a break point.

But really 2012 was the year the now-31 year old Serena played an entire tour season completely healthy and committed to the game in a long time and the results are clear and convincing. Serena ended up winning 47 of her last 49 matches in 2012 and went on an 11-0 run against the Top 2 players in the world. During that time she won 2 majors and 2 Olympic gold medals.

However, by winning the year-end championships for the 3rd time at age 31, Serena became the oldest player to ever win the tournament and joined Steffi Graf, Martina Navratilova, Monica Seles, Kim Clijsters and Chris Evert as 3-time winners. She joined Victoria Azarenka as the only other player to win $7 million in a season.

As long as she remains healthy there is no reason to think that Serena will not continue her domination of women's tennis for at least the next year or two, which should allow her to reach (and possibly even surpass) the 18 majors that Evert and Navratilova share. Graf's total of 22 should be safe. Probably.

WTA TOUR FINALS: Serena v Sharapova in final

Serena Williams continued her deadly efficient demolition of the elite draw at the WTA Tour Championships, this time defeating World #3 Agnieska Radwanska 6-2 6-1 to reach the final, where she will face World #2 Maria Sharapova in a reprise of the 2012 London Olympics gold medal match. The two semifinals were, respectively, repeat showdowns of the 2012 Wimbledon final and the 2012 Australian Open final. The Wimbledon result was repeated with Serena winning over Aga while in the other Sharapova was able to reverse the result with her first hard court win against World #1 Victoria Azarenka since 2009(!) by the fairly easy score of 6-4 6-2. Azarenka had serving troubles throughout the match (as well as during her loss to Serena earlier in the week) and in the latter stages was hampered in her usually superior movement with what looked like a thigh or hamstring injury.

Serena is 9-0 against Top 5 players in 2012 and has only lost two matches since late March (and a mere four matches all year long despite playing a complete season for the first time since 2009).

Serena will face Sharapova, who played excellent tennis to finally stop her hard-court losing streak to Azarenka. The problem for Sharapova is that the last time she played Serena she barely won a game, and the fact is that she has not beaten Serena since the finals of the 2004 WTA Championships in Los Angeles (which I attended). She doesn't only lose to Serena, she loses badly. The recent matches have not even been very close (although the earlier meetings used to be). One really can't call theirs a rivalry because Sharapova has won so few of their matches over the years. This fact should free up Sharapova to go for broke because she literally has nothing to lose. No one expects her to win this match so she should hit the ball even harder than usual.

As for Serena, her problem may be over confidence. She is now 11-1 against World #1 Azarenka and 9-2 against World #2 Sharapova and in 2012 has won 7 consecutive matches against her putative rivals for the throne at the top of women's tennis. With a win on Sunday she will end the year with 58 wins and only 4 losses on the year.

That being said, Sharapova can be dangerous. However Serena looks like a woman on a mission and is determined to reach World #1 again. Serena has won a tour-leading 6 titles in 2012 (tied with Azarenka) and if she wins in Istanbul it will be her 7th title of the year in as many finals and her 3rd time winning the year-end championships (2001 walk over Lindsay Davenport and 2009 d. Venus Williams).

In fact, I would not be surprised if we start talking about a Serena slam sometime in 2013, especially if Serena wins the Australian Open, which is rather likely. She has a mere 3 more majors before she reaches the gaudy totals of the all-time greats Martina Navratilova and Chris Evert, which at the age of 31 is something she could very well reach in the not too distant future!

2012 US OPEN: Serena Wins 15th Major Title

As I predicted, Serena Williams won her 4th US Open title and her 15th grand slam title of her legendary career by coming back from behind to defeat #1 seed Victoria Azarenka  6-2 2-6 7-5 in one of the most dramatic women's finals in New York in the last two decades. It was a match of historic proportions.

Not since 1995 had a women's final of the US Open gone to three sets (when Steffi Graf beat Monica Seles) and not since 1994 had a player come back from losing the first set to win the US Open, something Azarenka was poised to do when she broke Serena in the 7th game of the third set and held serve to go up 5-3 in the decider. Serena was able to hold serve in the crucial 9th game and force her opponent to serve out the match for her first US Open title. Azarenka cracked and Serena was able to break back to even the match at 5-all and then hold serve herself relatively easily to go up 6-5.

In the deciding game Azarenka was able to battle back from 15-30 down to reach deuce and had a game point to force a third set tiebreak, something which had not happened in a major final since Hana Mandlikova prevented Martina Navratilova from achieving the calendar Grand Slam in 1985. However, Serena won that point to force another deuce when Azarenka's backhand clipped the tape of the net and fell back on her side of the net. The deuce point ended on another Azarenka error and it was match point Serena. After another second serve returned powerfully by Serena Azarenka was behind in the point and eventually hit a backhand long to lose the point, the game, the set and the championship.

By winning the 2012 US Open Serena became the first woman over 30 years old to win the last major of the year since 1981, and her two major wins of the year establish her as the best player on the women's tour (though because she reached the final here last year, she will only rise to #4 in the rankings while Azarenka will remain atop the rankings at #1). This is her 15th major title, only three behind the final career totals of Navratilova and Chris Evert and it looks like Serena will be able to reach that gaudy total and vault herself into the conversation of greatest female tennis player ever.

2012 US OPEN: Women's Final Preview

Victoria Azarenka BLR (1) vs.  Serena Williams USA (4)

Here are my predictions for the women's final of the 2012 US Open. This year I have correctly predicted 3 of 4 women's quarterfinals, 3 of 4 of the men's quarterfinals, 2 of 2 women's semifinals and 2 of 2 men's semifinals.

How They Got Here: Women's Semifinals Review
Serena Williams USA (4) d. Sara Errani ITA (10) 6-1 6-2. 
Serena was never threatened by the diminutive Italian who has become her country's best player by dint of having one of the best seasons of any player this year. Errani has won all 6 of her WTA career singles titles this year, and reached the quarterfinals or better in  three majors, the first time she had ever progressed that far in any Grand Slam. Errani is a fighter but she has no shot that could trouble Serena, and the match was basically a mismatch, with the result never really in doubt.

Victoria Azarenka BLR (1) d. Maria Sharapova RUS (3) 3-6 6-2 6-4.
The other semifinal was completely different, one in which the result was hard to predict until the very last game, which was won by Azarenka. These two are establishing a significant rivalry, having played four times in 2012, with Vika winning three of these matches and now has a 6-4 lead in their career head-to-head.  The two have very similar playing styles with hard-hitting groundstrokes on both wins, with stronger backhands than forehands. Azarenka has significantly better movement, while Sharapova can have a significantly better serve when she gets in a groove. This match was a war of attrition, with Azarenka surviving Sharapova's firepower with her retrieving powers (the Russian ended with 44 winners and 42 unforced errors, while the Belarussian ended with 19 winners and 19 errors). Sharapova's mental toughness and competitive spirit has served her well in winning 4 majors but Azarenka is 2 years younger and could very well end her career with  an even larger numbers, depending on when Serena decides to retire.

The Women's Final: Prediction

Victoria Azarenka BLR (1) vs.  Serena Williams USA (4). Serena has an overwhelming 9-1 career head-to-head advantage against Azarenka and this really reflects the 90% probability that Serena will win this match. Despite this act, it should be a relatively close, hard-fought match, perhaps of the quality of their 3rd round match from 2011, which was won by Serena 6-1 7-6(5). This is pretty typical of their matches; Serena wins the first set relatively easily and when she gets up a break in the second she relaxes and gives Azarenka a chance to get back into the match and eventually has to gut out the second set in a close tiebreak. Serena does not feel any kind of animus towards Azarenka and will not try to blow her off the court as she did with Sharapova during her 6-0 6-1 drubbing to win the Gold Medal match at the London Olympics earlier this year.

However, after experiencing two bad experiences in New York in 2011 against Sam Stosur and in 2009 against Kim Clijsters, Serena has been on her best behavior this year. Serena was unable to play the 2010 tournament due to her year-long medically induced hiatus from the game, and she last won this title in 2008 (over Jelena Jankovic). It's amazing that  a few weeks before her 31st birthday Serena is the heavy favorite to win her 15th major title, pulling her within striking distance of the magic number of 18 that all-time greats Martina Navratilova and Chris Evert ended their storied careers with. If she were to get to the number then the question of Greatest of all Time would be another legitimate title to bestow upon her.

MadProfessah's Prediction: Serena.

2012 Wimbledon: Serena Wins 14th Major; 5th Wimbledon

As I predicted, Serena Williams defeated #3 seed Agnieska Radwanska 6-1 5-7 6-2 in a surprisingly tense Wimbledon ladies singles final to win her 14th major championship and 5th Wimbledon title. Her sister Venus Wiliams also has 5 singles titles, so the two have won 10 of the last 13 Wimbledon titles between them, with 2004 (Maria Sharapova d. Serena), 2006 (Amelie Mauresmo d. Justine Henin) and 2011 (Petra Kvitova d. Sharapova) being the years the title was not claimed by Venus or Serena. Serena and Venus will play for their 5th Wimbledon doubles title later today.

During the match Serena hit 17 aces, bringing her tournament total to an astonishing 102 aces, more than both of the men's finalists Roger Federer (59) and Andy Murray (74). It is widely being discussed as the most important and dominant shot in tennis, both men's and women's. To emphasize the point, in the 3rd set at 1-2, Serena served a "perfect game," 4 consecutive aces, to hold serve. After that Serena's play returned to her high standard.

Radwanska impressed observers with her tenacity, coming back from a 2-4 deficit to claw back to even in the middle set, despite the fact Serena had points on her serve to a 5-3 lead. Her service percentage plummeted as the weather got windy and wet. Radwanska took advantage of her opportunities, breaking Serena twice in consecutive service games on a mere two break points. In the 3rd set Serena had multiple opportunities to break, finally doing so in the 5th and 7th games and served out the win pretty easily, using her big serve to force a backhand crosscourt winner on championship point.

With Serena's 14th major title, she moves closer to the 18 singles held by Chris Evert and Martina Navratilova but is still behind Steffi Graf's 22 and Margaret Court's 24. She's moved 2 ahead of Billie Jean King.

What do you think, should this win move Serena higher up the official list of all-time tennis greats?

2012 FRENCH OPEN: Sharapova Gets Career Slam

CLIVE BRUNSKILL/GETTY IMAGES

AFP PHOTO/THOMAS COEX

Maria Sharapova became only the 6th woman to win the career Grand Slam (2012 French Open, 2008 Australian Open d. Ana Ivanovic, 2006 US Open d Justine Henin, 2004 Wimbledon d. Serena Williams) by defeating Serra Errani of Italy 6-3 6-2 in just under 90 minutes.

As I predicted yesterday, Errani was unable to provide enough offensive firepower due to her powder puff serve. In 17 games played, 9 served by Sharapova and 8 by Errani, the Italian was broken 5 times and held 3 times, while Sharapova held 7 times and was broken twice. This was actually slightly better than I had predicted, because I had thought that Erran would hold less times than she would break.

Although the score makes it seem like it was an easy match, the duration of the match and the number of breaks make it clear that the match was tougher than the final score indicates. In the first set, even though Sharapova broke and held twice to race to a 4-0 lead, Errani came back to win the next two games and held serve to force Sharapova to serve out the first set at 5-3, which she did after reaching a 30-all point with some good serving. In the second set Sharapova started with a break at love and held her serve to go up 2-0 but both the service games and the return games started to get closer as Errani started to go for her forehand and hit winners and successfully move her 6'2" opponent around the court to extend rallies. A series of holds followed until the 5th game when Sharapova broke again to take a 4-1 lead but the the two traded breaks to bring Sharapova to 5-2 to serve out the set and the match. Errani was not done fighting yet and fought off two championship points to get a break point, which Sharapova was able to gut out and then on the deuce point serve aces or service winners. On the 3rd championship point, Sharapova started with a good serve and got ahead in the point hitting a deep forehand cross-court to pull her opponent wide and then a backhand down the line which Errani attempted to slice back which barely made it into the net. Match over.

Sharapova's win is quite impressive considering most pundits thought her career was over after she had shoulder surgery in 2008 and for all of 2009 and 2010 had the service yips, often serving literally dozens of double faults in a match. But the Russian persevered, and made the semis here last year and then appeared in 3 of the last 4 grand slam finals, eventually winning her first Roland Garros title. The only other women to win all  4 majors are Martina Navratilova, Margaret Court, Chris Evert, Steffi Graf and Serena Williams. Even Monica Seles who gave Sharapova the title and who won 9 ,major titles, was unable to win Wimbledon. Great players like Venus Williams, Billie Jean King and Justine Henin all have more majors than Sharapova but do not have a career slam. It is very possible that with a little more luck Sharapova could win 1 or 2 more slams before she retires, and maybe even more if she plays after Serena retires.