2016 AUS OPEN: Kerber Shocks Serena To Win 1st Major Title

Defying my predictions and confounding history, Angelique Kerber outlasted Serena Williams 6-4 3-6 6-4 to win her first major title, at the 2016 Australian Open. Serena was aiming to match Steffi Graf's career total of 22 major titles while Kerber was aiming to become the first German player since Graf to win a major title. Serena was 21-4 in major finals and had only ever lost to three women in major finals (Venus Williams, Maria Sharapova and Samantha Stosur). Kerber was match point down in the very first round of the tournament but after coming through that she was able to play her very best tennis calmly and effectively and after getting a dream draw was able to come back from a huge deficit against Victoria Azarenka and continue that momentum to reach her first major final against Serena and win it! Now that's two consecutive majors where we have had first time slam winners. First Flavia Pennetta did it in New York last September and now 28-year-old Kerber is the champion in Melbourne.

How The Match Was Won
Serena had not dropped a set going into her 7th Australian Open final, the first time she had ever done that, and since she had won all previous six finals in Melbourne this was viewed as a positive omen. However, what happened when the final began was that Serena started nervously and was broken quickly. This was a slight surprise, but since it had also happened against Maria Sharapova most fans didn't worry and fully expected Serena to right the ship quickly. She did come back and evened the set at 3-all. Then surprisingly, Serena got broken again and Kerber's improved serve was able to carry her to take the first set in the face of  nearly two dozen unforced errors from her opponent and (ominously) no aces.

Surprisingly, we then discovered that Serena has only won 2 of 6 grand slam finals where she loses the first set, although she had never previously lost a 3-set major final (8-0). So, the key thing to do is win the first set when playing Serena in a final (because it usually means that she is having a very bad day and may actually go down in straight sets).

Serena finally started serving a bit better in the second set, but she never really punished Kerber's second serve like it deserved. However, she was able to get a break early and rushed out to a 4-1 lead, which she was able to maintain to take the middle set 6-3. (Kerber did well to hold after being down 2-5, 30-all to force Serena to serve out the second set and earn the right to serve first in the 3rd.)

The third set was one of the most compelling sets of tennis on the women's game in a really, really long time. Kerber hit 12 winners and only 3 unforced errors while Serena hit 19 winners and 18 unforced errors. Serena fell down 0-2 but was able to battle back to even the score at 2-all and after Kerber held the two played an intense 10-minute, 5-deuce game that Serena lost to go down 2-4 in the final set. Kerber was again able to hold despite not serving well (she was 56% first serves in for the match and won 60% of first serves points and 58% of second serve points, all stats in which she surpassed Serena today.)

Amazingly, despite being down 2-5 in the final set, Serena was able to come back and get back on serve, and she had a game point serving at 4-5, 40-30 but she missed that first serve and hit a very weak second serve which Kerber pummeled down the line for a winner to get to deuce. After a long rally, Serena went for a crosscourt winner but hit the top of the tape and set up championship point. Serena lost this point on a volley error (it was an easy volley that sailed well over the baseline).

Overall, a really great match. Serena was nervous, and frankly had the wrong game plan to come to net in an attempt to win points. Kerber was too fast and her lefty spin makes volleying difficult and it showed with Serena only making 15 of 32 net points. However, I'm happy to see Serena so fot so early in the year and I'm confident that if she stays healthy all year Serena will still reach Steffi's total of 22 titles this year (and probably end her career with 24 or 25). It takes the pressure off the rest of her year, so she should be extra motivated to get 22 in either Paris, Wimbledon (more likely) or New York (in addition to more Gold in Rio).

Kerber will move up to World #2 when the rankings come out on Monday, bumping down Simona Halep to #3 and elbowing out Sharapova out of the Top 5 as Radwanska and Muguruza round out the top 5. Amusingly, Pennetta is still in the Top 10 at #7 even though she retired at the end of 2015! I think it will be tough to end the year at #2 but I do expect her to remain in the Top 5 and to see Azarenka return to the Top 5 by the end of the year.

2015 AUS OPEN: Women's Semifinals Preview

The women's semifinals are now set at the 2015 Australian Open. Last year, I predicted 1 of 2 women's semifinals correctly and 1 of 2 men's quarterfinals correctly. This year I correctly predicted 2 of 4 women's quarterfinals and 3 of 4 men's quarterfinals (blogger ate the post!).

Serena Williams (USA) [1] vs Madison Keys (USA) Venus Williams (USA) [18] Petra Kvitova (CZE) [4]. Madison Keys is the breakout teenage female star of this year's Australian Open. The question is, following similar star-making turns by fellow teenagers in 2013 (Sloane Stephens) and 2014 (Eugene Bouchard), whose career path will she follow, the American or the Canadian? Hopefully, it will be the latter's not the former's. Keys impressed me with her mental and physical fortitude to gut out a win against her idol Venus Williams in the quarterfinal, despite repeatedly falling behind a break in the deciding set. This demonstrates why someone like Lindsey Davenport agreed to work with Keys and why her name has been bandied about as a future multiple slam winner for years. However, beating Venus at this stage in her career is one thing, taking out her 18-time major champion sister is quite another. Especially since Serena looks like she has righted the ship and demolished last year's finalist Dominika Cibulkova like it was a first week warm-up match, not a quarterfinal. Serena has won this thing 5 times before, usually in odd years, and has never not won the tournament when she reaches the semifinal. Then there's the extra wrinkle that Keys definitely injured herself in her win over Venus, things do not look well for a teenage finalist. Only seven players have ever defeated both Williams sister at the same tournament, and the people who did it at a major are multiple slam winners: Kim Clijsters, Justine Henin and Martina Hingis. Does Madison Keys belong on this list? We'll know soon! Mad Professah's pick: Williams in 2 sets.

Ekaterina Makarova (RUS) [10] vs Maria Sharapova (RUS) [2]. Makarova did well to dismiss a surprisingly uncombative Simona Halep in the quarterfinals, giving up only four games. As other observers have pointed out, the lefty Russian is "sneaky good" and is peaking somewhat late in her career by reaching two consecutive semifinal runs at majors. However no one, perhaps even Makarova herself, believes that she can actually win a major. Maria Sharapova definitely believes she can win any major, and has been playing the best tennis at this one of anyone at the top of the women's game and may be rewarded with the #1 ranking again. She put on a master class against Eugene Bouchard (a.k.a. Sharapova 2.0), making a not-very-subtle statement to the heir apparent that Masha is not ready to leave the big stage and that others need to wait their turn. The question is, is she really ready to finally turn around a decade-long losing streak to Serena Williams in the final? That will definitely indicate mental toughness. Mad Professah's pick: Sharapova in 2 sets.

2014 WTA YEC: Serena Routs Halep To Win 3rd Consecutive YEC; 5th Of Career

Serena Williams got quick revenge for her bad loss earlier in the week to Simona Halep by winning the 2014 WTA Year-Ending Championship final 6-3 6-0. Serena's win means that she has won the year-ending championship three consecutive years and five times in her career (2001 d. Lindsay Davenport (walkover), 2009 d. Venus Williams, 2012 d. Maria Sharapova, 2013 d. Li Na and 2014). She is now tied with Stefi Graf with the number of year-ending championships but is behind Martina Navratilova's eight. She also matches Monica Seles' feat of winning three consecutive year-ending championships. It is Serena's 64th career title.

Serena ends the year 52-8, a surprisingly large number of losses for the World #1, including an improbable 3 losses this year to Alize Cornet, but notably none to World #2 Maria Sharapova (whom she has not lost to in over a decade) or last year's rival Victoria Azarenka.

However, the most important aspect of her tennis year was that she won another major, her 18th at the US Open in September, tying her with Chris Evert and Navratilova. 2015 will be all about breaking that tie and trying to reach Graf's seemingly unsurmountable 22 majors before she retires.

2014 WIMBLEDON: Kvitova Dominates Bouchard To Win 2nd Major Title

As I predicted yesterday, Petra Kvitova of the Czech Republic won her second major title by defeating Genie Bouchard in the 2014 Wimbledon final. However, what was unexpected was the lopsided nature of the match: 6-3 6-0 (the fewest amount of games lost by the champion since Steffi Graf beat Monica Seles in the Wimbledon final in 1992). Kvitova just dominated her opponent in all aspects of the game: 28 winners to just 12 unforced winners in 15 games played and winning 6 of 13 breakpoints while serving at 68%. Bouchard hit 8 winners to just 4 unforced winners but the outcome of the match was not really in her hands due to Kvitova's stellar performance.

Kvitova will now be ranked #4 in the World on Monday while Bouchard will be World #7. By winning her second major final, Kvitova joins others like Lindsay Davenport, Monica Seles and Jennifer Capriati who won their first two major finals played. Kvitova clearly plays her best tennis at Wimbledon: in the last 5 years she has won 2 titles here (reaching the quarterfinals or better) and lost two Serena Williams in 2010 and 2012 when the American won the title instead.

Interestingly, the toughest match that Kvitova had in the entire two weeks this year was her amazing 3-set match against 5-time Wimbledon champion Venus Williams where she won 5-7 7-7(5) 7-5. For Bouchard, this year in every last major tournament she has lost to the eventual winner, which is a very good sign for the 20-year old, especially considering she has only played six major tournaments in her career and just two years ago she won the Junior Wimbledon title.

It will be very interesting to see how the rest of their years will go. With something not right with Serena, there is an opening at the top of women's tennis right now. Will one of these players occupy the void?

2013 WIMBLEDON: Women's Final Preview

Sabine Lisicki (GER) [23] vs. Marion Bartoli (FRA) [15]

The players are set for the 2013 women's final at the Wimbledon Championships. Last year I correctly predicted Serena Williams would defeat Agnieska Radwanska in the Women's Final and I also correctly predicted Roger Federer would defeat Andy Murray in the Mens Final. This year I correctly predicted 2 of 2 women's semifinals and and the 2 of 2 men's semifinals. What follows is my analysis of this year's women's final between Sabine Lisicki and Marion Bartoli.

How They Got Here: Women's Semifinals Review

Sabine Lisicki (GER) [23] d. Agnieszka Radwanska (POL) [4] 6-4 2-6 9-7. Somewhat surprisingly, this was the best match of the tournament so far, which is something I didn't think we would be saying after Lisicki's astonishing 6-2 1-6 6-4 termination of Serena William's winning streak in the Round of 16. Many people expected that Radwanska's "bag of tricks" would be too much for the somewhat one-dimensional "Big Babe" playing style of Lisicki, who is known as Boom-Boom for her big serve and forehand. Radwanska doesn't force a win in her matches, she forces her opponents to go for too much so that they lose the match. This is a brilliant strategy in a game which is built around the mathematics of the zero sum: every point your opponent loses is a point that you win. No one embodies that central rule of tennis into their game like the World #4. Lisicki loves to play on grass and on Centre Court especially. All of her best results (really, all of her major results) have occurred at Wimbledon. But Radwanska loves this tournament too, since she reached her first major final here last year. 

The book on Lisicki is that she can play strongly for periods of time, but that eventually she will go off and that's where your opponent has their chance. Serena thought that's what had happened when she was up 3-0 in the third set and surely Radwanska must have thought the same thing when she was in the same position. The only person at Wimbledon who thought that Lisicki would be able to complete another comeback from such a deficit was Lisicki herself, and she did it. But then Radwanska refused to buckle and the two went deep into the deciding set, past 4-all, to 5-all, 6-all and even 7-all. Radwanska was then broken in the 15th game of the third set after some hard hitting returns and a volley error by the Pole. Boom-Boom did a better job of serving for the match on her second opportunity (she had done so at 5-4 but was only one point on serve that time), going up quickly to 40-0 to triple match point and after blowing one she was able to finish it off with a clear winner on the return of service return. She becomes the first German player to reach a grand slam final since Fraulein Forehand herself, Stefanie Graf did, in 1999. (It should be noted, Graf lost that final to Lindsay Davenport).

Marion Bartoli (FRA) [15] d. Kirsten Flipkens (BEL) [20] 6-1 6-2. This match turned out to more of a mismatch, as Bartoli came out with a determined game plan to absolutely crunch ever service return and Flipkens' backhand slice did not prevent the Frenchwoman from pounding the ball into the corners on both wings. Clearly the Belgian did not play her best tennis, seemingly a bit overwhelmed by the occasion, but Bartoli saw her opportunity, grabbed it by the throat and throttled it viciously, reaching only her 2nd major final in 6 years, the longest gap since her countrywoman (and part-time "advisor") Amelie Mauresmo took 7 years between reaching the Australian Open finals in 1999 (l. Martina Hingis) and 2006 (d. Justin Henin). Could the second time be as charmed for this Frenchwoman?

What Will Happen: Women's Final Preview

Sabine Lisicki (GER) [23] vs. Marion Bartoli (FRA) [15]. Mentally you have to give the edge to Bartoli because she has reached the final of Wimbledon before and she has to be less mentally tired having a much easier run to the final (the Frenchwoman has not dropped a set!) compared to Lisicki who had two emotionally draining victories against Serena in the 4th round and Radwanska in the 6th round. I think Bartoli's apparently large mental edge is countered somewhat by the Lisicki's inherent belief that she is destined to win Wimbledon. From the beginning of the tournament she has been telling the press that she knows it takes seven matches to win the tournament, even though she embraces her reputation as a Giantkiller who can put together a great match against any one in the draw. Clearly the bookmakers agree, since they have made the German the betting favorite ever since she eliminated the defending champion from the draw. 

Physically you have to give the edge to Lisicki, primarily because she is in better shape than Bartoli and because she is a better mover, especially on grass. Bartoli plays with two hands on both sides, a la Monica Seles which gives her balanced power on both sides at the expense of reach. She also has surprisingly good hands and can generate spins whenever she wants, which is something Lisicki is not known for. The German is fond of her drop shots, and I expect she will be deploying that fairly often to exploit the deficits in movement of her opponent. But Bartoli is in much better shape than she was when she got to the final in 2007 and is faster than she looks. On the forehand side, Lisicki is clearly superior but on the backhand side Bartoli has the edge, and her edge on the backhand side is bigger than Lisicki's on the forehand side. The serve you have to also give to Lisicki, both  her first and second serve are better than Bartoli, but "The Genius" has shown us that she can produce brilliant serving before, most notably when she took out the defending Wimbledon champion Serena Williams in 2011. (It should be noted that the very next round she played Lisicki and lost a tough 3-set quarterfinal, getting blown out in the 3rd set.) 

In their career head-to-head Lisicki leads 3-1, although the two have split their two meeting here at Wimbledon on grass, with Lisicki winning their last meeting in 2011 and Bartoli winning their first in 2008 when both players were very different players. This is a pretty hard match to call, but just as the Li-Radwanska and Lisicki-Radwanska matches, I have to go with the power over control, with the better athlete. (I was wrong in the first example, but vindicated in the second.) I have been told that it is likely that this match will be first-strike tennis, with lots of short points. If this does happen, it would greatly favor Bartoli, and she could win in two lopsided sets (especially if Lisicki is overwhelmed by the occasion.) But I think that Lisicki can scramble enough to complicate things for Bartoli fairly often, and with good serving on Lisiki's end, more of the scoreboard pressure will be on Bartoli, who may also have more pressure because she wants it too much. At age 28 she knows how rare these opportunities arise in a career. That being said, it is a great day for women's tennis when a new Grand Slam champion is crowned and regardless of who wins tomorrow will be a great day.

PREDICTION: Lisicki. 

CHARLESTON 2013: Serena Wins 49th WTA Title (Over Jankovic)

AP/Mic Smith

As I predicted, Serena Williams won her 3rd consecutive Family Circle Cup title by defeating Jelena Jankovic, 3-6 6-0 6-2, in Charleston, S.C. Jankovic played fearlessly and well, and deserved to win the first set. Serena failed to convert 5 break points in the 4th game of the 1st set and was promptly broken at love in her service game and went on to lose the first set 3-6 after getting broken again. In her win over sister Venus Williams on Saturday, Serena had had zero unforced errors in the first set but against Jankovic she had 12. Serena was able to break early in the 2nd set and consolidated the break.

The key moment in the match was the 3rd game of the second set with Jankovic serving when Serena put up her racquet saying she wasn't ready. Jankovic has a habit of not looking at the receiver when she serves and has been accused of "quick serving" opponents on multiple occasions. According to Sports Illustrated, here's what happened:

Jankovic: “How long do I have to wait?”Serena: “Until I’m ready. I don’t play slow.”Jankovic: “But you go like this [crouching in return position]Serena: “Honestly, you got a problem? I’m not the one.”

It was quite an extraordinarily dramatic moment for a tennis match (watch it yourself here). Unfortunately for Jankovic, the end result was that she lost the next 4 games and the set after the verbal exchange. It appeared to lower the level of her play and raise Serena's. Serena ended the match by winning 12 of the last 14 games. Her first clay court win over Jankovic improved her career head-to-head to 6-4.

In the end, Serena finished the match with 39 winners to 25 unforced errors. The 2013 Family Circle Cup was her 2nd consecutive title in as many weeks, on two different surfaces. It was her 49th career title and her 3rd of the year (Brisbane, Miami and Charleston).

According to the WTA:

Only nine women have won 50 or more WTA titles, namely Martina Navratilova (167), Chris Evert (154), Steffi Graf (107), Margaret Court (92), Evonne Goolagong (68),Billie Jean King (67), Lindsay Davenport (55), Virginia Wade (55) and Monica Seles (53).

Serena will almost certainly exceed Lindsay Davenport's career title haul of 55 but I doubt she will get to Billie Jean King's gaudy total of 67. The most titles she has won in a year was in 2002, when she won 8, but last year she won 7 and this year to date she has already won 3 titles before her best part of the year has arrived (summer hard court and grass). This augurs well for Serena's 2013.

WTA TOUR FINALS: Serena v Sharapova in final

Serena Williams continued her deadly efficient demolition of the elite draw at the WTA Tour Championships, this time defeating World #3 Agnieska Radwanska 6-2 6-1 to reach the final, where she will face World #2 Maria Sharapova in a reprise of the 2012 London Olympics gold medal match. The two semifinals were, respectively, repeat showdowns of the 2012 Wimbledon final and the 2012 Australian Open final. The Wimbledon result was repeated with Serena winning over Aga while in the other Sharapova was able to reverse the result with her first hard court win against World #1 Victoria Azarenka since 2009(!) by the fairly easy score of 6-4 6-2. Azarenka had serving troubles throughout the match (as well as during her loss to Serena earlier in the week) and in the latter stages was hampered in her usually superior movement with what looked like a thigh or hamstring injury.

Serena is 9-0 against Top 5 players in 2012 and has only lost two matches since late March (and a mere four matches all year long despite playing a complete season for the first time since 2009).

Serena will face Sharapova, who played excellent tennis to finally stop her hard-court losing streak to Azarenka. The problem for Sharapova is that the last time she played Serena she barely won a game, and the fact is that she has not beaten Serena since the finals of the 2004 WTA Championships in Los Angeles (which I attended). She doesn't only lose to Serena, she loses badly. The recent matches have not even been very close (although the earlier meetings used to be). One really can't call theirs a rivalry because Sharapova has won so few of their matches over the years. This fact should free up Sharapova to go for broke because she literally has nothing to lose. No one expects her to win this match so she should hit the ball even harder than usual.

As for Serena, her problem may be over confidence. She is now 11-1 against World #1 Azarenka and 9-2 against World #2 Sharapova and in 2012 has won 7 consecutive matches against her putative rivals for the throne at the top of women's tennis. With a win on Sunday she will end the year with 58 wins and only 4 losses on the year.

That being said, Sharapova can be dangerous. However Serena looks like a woman on a mission and is determined to reach World #1 again. Serena has won a tour-leading 6 titles in 2012 (tied with Azarenka) and if she wins in Istanbul it will be her 7th title of the year in as many finals and her 3rd time winning the year-end championships (2001 walk over Lindsay Davenport and 2009 d. Venus Williams).

In fact, I would not be surprised if we start talking about a Serena slam sometime in 2013, especially if Serena wins the Australian Open, which is rather likely. She has a mere 3 more majors before she reaches the gaudy totals of the all-time greats Martina Navratilova and Chris Evert, which at the age of 31 is something she could very well reach in the not too distant future!

KEY BISCAYNE 2012: Venus, Serena, Azarenka Lose!

Getty

At the Sony Ericsson Open in Miami (Key Biscayne), Victoria Azarenka's 2012 winning streak ended at 26 consecutive matches and 4 titles when she lost to Marion Bartoli of France 6-3 6-3 in the quarterfinals. Bartoli is now World #7 and when she is on, can beat any player on the WTA Tour and proved it on Wednesday, coming back from 1-3 down in the second set to rattle off 5 games and stun the World #1 and defending champion who was struggling mightily (and unsuccessfully) to control her groundstrokes. Azarenka was coming off winning the Indian Wells tournament the week before and the only players on the WTA tour to do the Indian Wells-Key Biscayne double are Steffi Graf and Kim Clijsters (who was forced to withdraw with a hip injury which will keep her out of the game for 4 weeks).

Losing within 18 hours of each other were Venus Williams dropping 6-4 6-1 to World #4 Agnieska Radwanska (who is 0-4 against Azarenka in 2012 but 24-0 against the rest of the field) and sister Serena Williams losing 6-4 6-4 to former World #1 Caroline Wozniacki. It was the second time in 7 meetings that Venus had lost to Radwanska and the first time in 3 meetings that Serena had lost to Wozniacki. In fact, when Wozniacki won, Tennis Channel commentator Lindsay Davenport called it "perhaps the biggest win of [her] career" because the Dane has so few victories against the purveyors of Big Babe tennis. Between the two of them, Venus and Serena had won this tournament in Key Biscayne (which is very close to the home they share together in Palm Beach Gardens) a combined 8 times in the last 12 years. Serena has done it 5 times, and Venus thrice.

In the semifinals Wozniacki will face Maria Sharapova (who beat Li Na in the quarterfinals), the one big babe she has actually beaten before (twice). Radwanska will face Bartoli in the other semifinal.

PREDICTION: Radwanska-Sharapova final.

WIMBLEDON 2011: Women's Final Preview

Maria Sharapova RUS (5) vs. Petra Kvitova CZE (8). 

This year I correctly predicted 3 of 4 men's quarterfinals, 4 of 4 women's quarterfinals, 1 of 2 men's semifinals and 2 of 2 women's semifinals.

Here are my predictions for the women's final at the Wimbledon Championships for 2011.

For the first time since 2006 there will not be a Williams playing the final women's match at Wimbledon. Instead we have the now-veteran Maria Sharapova, at 24, seeking her 2nd Wimbledon crown and 4th major title overall. After she broke through as a teenage phenom to win Wimbledon in 2004 by blasting Serena Williams off the court in straight sets many hailed the blonde, blue-eyed Russian as the new Ice Princess of Tennis and her face quickly became the most photographed countenance in all of women's sports, leading to untold riches off the court in the endorsement jackpot. However, since those heady days, Sharapova has only won 3 major titles, like clock work, every even year: 2004 Wimbledon, 2006 U.S. Open and 2008 Australian Open. This put her in the company of past champions like Lindsay Davenport, Jennifer Capriati and Kim Clijsters and not legends of the game like Martina Navratilova, Chris Evert or Serena Williams. Sharapova's metronomic Grand Slam winning pattern was interrupted by an October 2008 shoulder surgery after which she suffered the indignities of failing to get past the Round of 8 in any major for two full calendar years due to intermittent serving difficulties.

However, now it's 2011 and  for the last month or so Sharapova has gotten back to doing what she does best: hitting the bejeezus out of the little yellow ball into the corners of the court followed by an ear-shattering "grunt." She came very close to completing the career slam in Paris but was outlasted by a steadier player, Li Na who went on to win the title.  

Her opponent is a 21-year-old first-time finalist from the Czech Republic, the same age the great Martina Navratilova was when she won her first of 9 Wimbledon singles titles. Whether Petra Kvitova will go on to as storied  a career as her fellow countrywoman is something we can not know now, but the two have a lot of similarities in their games. They both are big-serving lefties, with hard-hitting ground strokes on both wings and a willingness to approach the net. Martina was the consummate serve and volleyer, the dominant strategy of her era, while Kvitova is the epitome of the modern game, able to blast winners from any position in the court.

Sharapova has not dropped a set on her way to the final and hasn't had to play anyone very troublesome along the way, except for wild card Sabine Lisicki. The German had been playing some of the best grass court tennis of the year, dispatching Marion Bartoli (who had dismissed 2-time defending champion Serena Williams) and Li Na in two very exciting matches. The mouthwatering "Mean Girls" quarterfinal with Sharapova and "World #1" Caroline Wozniacki never materialized because Pocket Rocket Dominika Cibulkova dismissed the new It girl in the 4th round and was rewarded by being demolished by Sharapova in the quarterfinals. Hometown favorite Laura Robson was able to ride the crowd's enthusiasm to a first-set tiebreaker in the second round but Sharapova hasn't even faced a set point for the entire tournament.

Kvitova, on the other hand, has had to play 3 tough sets to go through World #5 Victoria Azarenka and had another tight 3-set match with Tsevetana Pironkova, the woman who dismissed Venus Williams, the best female grass-court player of her generation from Wimbledon, in two consecutive years by the same exact score!

Head-to-head the two have played only once with Sharapova winning easily (on clay before Kvitova made her breakthrough by reaching the semifinals of Wimbledon last year). The intangibles definitely favor Sharapova; she has won before, this is her 5th major final, it is Kvitova's first. However, if you look at their style of play you see that Sharapova has had 11 more double faults than aces (32 to 21) while Kvitova has 22 more aces than double faults (35 to 13). Summary: Kvitova's serve is a weapon, while Sharapova's is a liability.  Generally, on grass, the person with the better serve wins, unless the other person has better movement and better returning. Sharapova does have a better return than Kvitova: she will go for a direct winner on both first and second serves. Is Sharapova a better mover than Kvitova? Doubtful, though quite honestly neither of them are superb in this category. All-in-all, Kvitova has the game to win the title, and I believe she will.

MadProfessah's PREDICTION: Kvitova.

AUS OPEN 2011: Clijsters Wins 4th Major Title

AFP PHOTO / GREG WOOD

AFP PHOTO / HO / FIONA HAMILTON 

As I predicted, Kim Clijsters of Belgium defeated Li Na of China in the 2011 Australian Open women's final in Melbourne 3-6 6-3 6-3 to win her first Australian Open title and fourth major title overall. Clijsters even her career record in finals to 4-all, and improved her post-retirement record to 3-0 in finals. By winning 4 majors, she moved ahead of Lindsay Davenport, Jennifer Capriati and Maria Sharapova. Li Na made history as the first person from Asia, and particular China, to reach a Grand Slam final.

The match ended up being much more competitive than most observers predicted, with Li dropping the first 8 consecutive points but breaking back repeatedly and going for her shots with comparable power to Clijsters. Clijsters repeatedly was unable to consolidate breaks of Li's serve. The Chinese player was able to take the first set by winning the last three games convincingly. Unfortunately, she lost her serve immediately at the start of the second set (in fact she lost her first service game in every set she played in the final) but then was able to break back again to even the score. This began a rash of service breaks which by the conclusion of the 9 game second set ended up being a majority of the service games (5). The third set began with a strong hold by Clijsters at love, followed by another break of Li's serve. The Chinese player was able to break back again but was unable to hold her service game again and fell back 1-3 in the deciding set. At this point Li started to look tired and made a series of forehand errors to allow Clijsters to go up 4-1 via another hold of serve by the Belgian. Li falls down 15-30 in her service game but through an important line call challenge is able to get to 30-30 and eventually hold to deny Clisters a second "insurance" break. Clijsters holds serve again easily to go up 5-2 and all signs seem to indicate the match will soon be over. However, Li holds serve concincingly at 15, forcing Clijsters to serve for the championship, which she does with three first serves and three return of service return winners, followed by a Li error giving Clijsters her first Australian Open title.

Serena Williams Now #1 for 100 Weeks

Serena Williams has become the 7th player to spend 100 weeks at #1, following in the footsteps of other players such as Steffi Graf (377), Martina Navratilova (332), Chris Evert (260), Martina Hingis (209), Monica Seles (178) and Justine Henin (117).

There have been 19 players to ever hold the World #1 ranking since 1975. Serena's sister, currently ranked at #4 has spent 11 weeks at #1.

AUSSIE OPEN 2010: Women's Final Preview

Justine Henin BEL v. Serena Williams USA (1)

One of the most exciting major tournaments in recent tennis history, and the first Grand Slam tennis tournament of the new decade, is hurtling to a conclusion with a mouthwatering final where the competitors have a combined 18 Grand Slam titles between them, which is far more than we have seen since the legendary Steffi Graf was still competing in finals more than a decade ago.

Craig Hickman has done his typically excellent job of summarizing the background as well as the liabilities and strengths of both Serena Williams and Justine Henin coming into tonight's final (which will be on at 12:30am PST, 3:30am EST Saturday).

Briefly, Serena leads their overall head-to-head 7-6, (4-1 on hard courts) but trails 2-4 in major tournaments, the majority of which came in a string of 3 losses to the Belgian in 3 consecutive grand slam quarterfinals in 2007. Their last meeting was a devastating 6-2 6-0 demolition of Henin by Serena in Miami in March the following year; 6 weeks later Henin announced her retirement from competitive tennis.

Despite winning the doubles title with her sister for the second consecutive year, Serena's physical frailty is apparent. In her tense semi-final win over Li Na, Serena at times was barely moving. Her serve has kept her in the tournament and has been impeccable. Henin has been serving atrociously but her overall game is still as impressive as it was before her hiatus; she possesses every shot in tennis, combined with surprising power and superior movement. She has displayed mental frailty like in her Brisbane loss to Clijsters and in her win against Elena Dementieva, but she has the support of her coach Carlos Rodriguez to draw upon.

Serena has the sharpest competitive spirit of any player on tour, and particularly in Australia Serena has often played some of her best tennis on her way to winning four Australian Open titles (in 2003 over Venus in what some commentators call the most competitive match between the sisters; in 2005 over Lindsay Davenport after trailing a set and a break she won 9 games in a row to win the title--this after saving two match points against Maria Sharapova the round before; and in 2007 over Sharapova she displayed her most impressive level of play, ever only allowing her opponent a mere 3 games).

Although I have correctly predicted the outcomes of 3 of the last 6 matches in the tournament, I want to change my method for prognostication and try and use probabilities (I am a math professor after all!) There are four possible ocurrences: Serena in 2 sets, Serena in 3 sets, Henin in 3 sets and Henin in 2 sets). I evaluate the probabilities of these events at 54%, 40%, 60% and46% respectively. (Of course these numbers are simply estimates, with the 2-set probability coming directly from their overall head-to-head record and the 3-set probability coming from my assessment of Serena's stamina). Crunching the numbers that gives Henin an overall 53% chance of winning, which is significantly better than a coin toss.

MadProfessah's pick: Henin (Williams in 2 sets, Henin in 3 sets).

AUSTRALIAN OPEN 2009: Women's Final Preview

Dinara Safina RUS (3)	Dinara Safina RUS (3)

For the fourth time in her career Serena Williams is in the final of the Australian Open, the first major tournament of the year. She has previously won the title in 2003 (over Venus Williams), 2005 (over Lindsay Davenport) and 2007 (over Maria Sharapova). Sharapova won the title over Ana Ivanovic last year, somewhat making up for the shellacking Serena had dealt her the year before. However, the defending champion is not here this year and with the mathematical inevitability indicated by the curious pattern of winning in every odd year this decade, the 9-time champion has been the overwhelming favorite to win her second consecutive Grand Slam title for the first time since she won all four in a row in 2003.

This time her opponent will be another Russian, although she's not "another 'ova" as the Americans once dismissed the large group of Russian and eastern European players years ago, she is Dinara ("no longer just Marat's little sister!") Safina. Whoever wins the match on Sunday will also receive the bonus of being crowned the World #1. Head-to-head, Serena has only lost to Safina once (last year) during the Russian's "dream tournament" in Berlin whens she beat (in successive rounds) Justine Henin, Serena Williams and Elene Dementieva to win her first Tier 1 title. Safina's brother won this title four years ago and she has been playing excellent tennis ever since her Berlin breakthrough. She did quite well to fend off a surprisingly stiff challenge from Vera Zvonareva in the Women's semis, winning 6-3 7-6(4).

In the other semifinal Serena was able to obain revenge for three consecutive losses against Dementieva by handing the vastly improved Russian her first loss of 2009 in three tournaments 6-3 6-4 relatively easily. She similarly dispatched Safina in the semifinals of the U.S. Open just over 4 months ago (how time flies!) and Saturday's final is very unlikely to have a different result.

Mad Professah's pick: Williams in 2 sets.

Serena, Venus and Lindsay Withdraw From L.A. Tourney

Awful news for the East West Bank Classic in Carson, CA: American tennis stars Lindsay Davenport, Venus Williams and Serena Williams have withdrawn from the WTA Tier II tournament that starts tomorrow.

Venus and Lindsay withdrew on Friday with knee injuries. Serena retired from her semifinal match against Aleksandra Wozniak on Saturday at the Bank of the West Classic at Stanford with an aggravation of her left knee injury. She was not moving at all and was down 2-6, 1-3, 40-15 when she stopped playing.

All three Americans are scheduled to represent their country at the Olympics which start on Friday August 8.

More Tennis News: Davenport AND Venus Ailing

Lindsay Davenport withdrew due to illness from her semifinal match again Maria Sharapova at the Bausch & Lomb Clay Court Championships in Amelia Island, Florida on Saturday. Sharapova will face either Dominika Cibulkova (who took out Amelia Mauresmo in straight sets) or Alize Corney in her first clay court final on Sunday.

In addition, there are now more details about Venus Williams "hiatus" from tennis announced earlier in the week. Her agent Carlos Fleming gave a phone interview where she said that Venus will return to the tour at the Italian Open in Rome on May 12.

Venus has assured me that there’s no serious medical problem,” Fleming said. “But she did see this timing as a good opportunity to have these evaluations to make sure that her health is in order.”

[...]

Fleming said Williams expects to be back on the court practicing sometime by the end of next week and fully intends to compete in the French Open, Wimbledon and U.S. Open—as well as the Beijing Olympics, where she aims to play in singles and in doubles with her younger sister Serena.

But Fleming said that an “ambitious” travel schedule so far in 2008, including stops in Doha, Qatar; Bangalore, India; and Melbourne, Australia, made the 27-year-old Williams want to “make sure that her health was 100 percent on track.”

Mrs. Leach Embarasses Ivanovic Then Loses To Crazy Russian

At the Sony Ericsson Open in Miami, Lindsay Davenport (also known as Mrs. Jon Leach) beat World #2 Ana Ivanovic 6-4, 6-2 in a match that was not as competitive as the one-sided score indicates.

Even though she gave birth to her first child a scant 10-months ago in June 2007, the American has always had some of the most powerful and accurate groundstrokes on the WTA Tour.

Craig Hickman has more details.

UPDATE: The day after embarassing the World #2, Lindsay lost (for the first time) to Russian Dinara Safina 6-3, 6-4.

Serena Williams will meet World #1 Justine Henin in a quarterfinal match (in a replay of last year's amazing title match, one of the best matches of the year), while her sister Venus Williams will meet World #3 Svetlana Kuznetsova in another quarterfinal.

AUSTRALIAN OPEN 2008: Women's Final Preview

Maria Sharapova RUS (5) versus Ana Ivanovic SRB (4).

After being humiliated by Serena Williams at the 2007 Australian Open women's final and failing to win more than a single title all year (Acura Classic) Maria Sharapova clearly showed up in Melbourne with a mission to win her first Australian Open title. Despite having a relatively difficult draw (dangerous floater Lindsay Davenport in round 2, #11 seed Elena Dementieva, #3 seed Jelena Jankovic and World #1 and #1 seed Justine Henin) Sharapova has reached the final for the second consecutive year without losing a set. Ana Ivanovic confirmed her status as the (higher ranked and) superior of the "Serbian sisters" by achieving her second Grand Slam final before her compatriot Jankovic has been in a single one. Even in their interesting quarterfinal match-ups of the Williams sisters versus Serbia, Ivanovic won her match more convincingly over much stiffer resistance. And then came Ivanovic's disastrous start of her semifinal match against Daniela Hantuchova where she lost the first 8 games in 45 minutes but somehow managed to reverse the momentum and win the match 0-6 6-3 6-4.

However, Ivanovic will need to not only be better than Jankovic, she will need to be playing at the level to beat a Williams sister in order to deny Maria Sharapova's her 3rd major title. It's unlikely, but not unthinkable that this coulld happen, but at least it would make for some delightful tennis to watch, which is what I really expect to see happen.

PREDICTION: Sharapova, in 3 sets.

AUSTRALIAN OPEN 2008: Day 1

The 2008 Australian Open has started. Check out the men's and women's previews over at Craig Hickman's blog.

Round 2 is starting tomorrow and will feature Lindsay Davenport vs Maria Sharapova(!)

Defending champion Serena has already won her first round match, and Venus plays hers tomorrow. Hapily they are both in the opposite half of the draw, and Serena can not meet Justine Henin until the semifinals.

Defending champion Roger Federer has been ill with a stomach virus but should get through his first round match tomorrow, where he may then face the winner of 6'10" John Isner or Fabrice "The agician" Santoro. I bet he wants Isner to win, who he took out easily at the 2007 US Open.

Davenport Wins Bali Title After 1 Year Off Tour

Lindsay Davenport with Bali trophy

and son Jagger Jonathan

Lindsay Davenport, former World #1 and 3-time Slam champion won her 53rd carrer title by defeating Daniela Hantuchova 6-4, 3-6, 6-2. Welcome back, Lindsay! Craig Hickman has more details.

Davenport Punctuates Her Return By Beating Top Seed Jankovic

Former World #1 and current #234 Lindsay Davenport beat World #3 and Top Seed Jelena Jankovic 6-4 2-6 6-2 at her first singles tournament back after having a child on June 10, 2007. With her win, the American 3-time Grand Slam champion made the semifinals of the Bali WTA tournament. Go, Lindsay!