Showing posts with label G.O.A.T.. Show all posts
Showing posts with label G.O.A.T.. Show all posts

Saturday, July 13, 2019

2019 WIMBLEDON: Halep Stuns Serena To Win 2nd Major Title






To the surprise of most observers, World #7 Simona Halep put on a devastating display of accurate, defensive, propulsive tennis on Wimbledon Centre Court to defeat 23-time major champion Serena Williams 6-2 6-2 in 56 minutes to win her second major title.  The loss means that Serena is still stuck at 23 major singles trophies, the most in the modern era, but still 1 behind the odious Margaret Court, who won 24 (although 11 were from her home country's tournament in Australia, at a time when it is quite difficult to really consider the Australian Open a grand slam tournament). The 6-2 6-2 drubbing she received is her worst loss in  a major final (where she is now 23-9) since she lost the 2014 French Open to Garbine Muguruza by the same score. She has now lost 3 major finals in a row, to Kerber, Naomi Osaka and Halep.

WOMEN'S FINAL REVIEW
For the second year in a row, Serena lost in the Wimbledon final after making it through the draw in dramatic fashion, but without having to play a Top 10 player before the championship match. Last year she lost to Angie Kerber in straight sets and today it was Simona Halep. In both cases the reasons for these results are complex, but I feel like in today's match too many people are chalking it up to amazing play by Halep and downplaying the weaknesses that Serena revealed. It is true Halep had a mere 3 unforced errors in 2 sets today. But Serena had double that number of unforced errors in the first two games. Her serve was NOT ready to go at the beginning of the match, and after 11 minutes she was down 0-4. Both her serve and her return, two of the best parts of her game, and probably the best in women's tennis, completely disappeared. I suppose that would be enough to rattle anyone, but there were multiple times when she was in a winning position with a ball to hit out of reach that she would overhit it, trying to bludgeon it and intimidate her opponent. Instead, she hit the ball over the line. This must have happened at least a half-dozen times. Also, Serena seemed unprepared for Halep amazing defensive skills, powered by incredible anticipation and stupendous movement. Serena would hit what she thought was a winner, Halep would get it back and Serena would hit another shot that would win the point against most players, Halep would make a ridiculous get and then Serena would hit an error. I believe these mistakes were primarily caused by her lack of match play and the fact she hadn't played a top player in the tournament up to that point and she has had almost zero match play outside of the majors since she returned to competitive tennis in May 2018. She is yet to have won a title of any kind since the January 2017 Australian Open. At age 37 (38 in September) it is becoming increasingly clear she just simply can not continue to just focus on the majors, unless she finds a way to completely overhaul her mental approach to playing  a major final, which is a very unlikely prospect. I still believe (and hope) that she will win 24 (or more!) grand slam singles titles, but even if she doesn't, there's no doubt in my mind that Serena Williams should be considered the G.O.A.T.

Friday, July 12, 2019

2019 WIMBLEDON: Women's Final Preview (and Semifinals Review)

Serena Williams (USA) [11] vs Simona Halep (ROU) [7]

This is my prediction post for the 2019 Wimbledon women's final. Last year I did not predict that Angie Kerber would defeat Serena WilliamsThis year I correctly predicted the results of  2 of 2 men's semifinals, 2 of 2 women's semifinals, 4 of 4 men's quarterfinals and 3 of 4 women's quarterfinals

WOMEN'S SEMIFINALS REVIEW

Serena Williams (USA) [11] d. Barbora Strycova (CZE) 6-1 6-2.  This was a devastating performance by Serena; she had 28 winners to just 10 errors. Although there was much ink spilled about how Strycova was replacing Roberta Vinci as the oldest first-time major semifinalist and what this might portend for Serena's chances to win this match. However, by playing first-strike tennis Serena was able to rush her opponent and not give her a chance to deploy her net-based skills and tricky spins Strycova also did not player her best. She attempted multiple drop shots that failed to clear her side of the net and suffered double faults at inopportune times. For Serena it was an awe-inspiring performance.

Simona Halep (ROU) [7] d. Elina Svitolina (UKR) [8] 6-1 6-3. Each of the first two games of this match were extremely high quality and were tense, 10-minute affairs that featured over 10 deuces between them, and multiple break points and game points and very long rallies. But Halep won both of these games and did not look back from there as she served out the set quickly. In the second set Svitolina put up much more fight but once the first break happened Halep took advantage and never looked back.

WOMEN'S FINAL PREVIEW


Despite now holding the record for the oldest woman to appear in a major final, Serena has to be considered the overwhelming favorite to win her 24th major title. Serena has a dominant 9-1 head-to-head record against Simona Halep. But this is the third time in a year when she had an opportunity to win her 24th major title and in the first two (2018 Wimbledon loss to Angie Kerber and 2018 US Open loss to Naomi OsakaSerena was unable to play anywhere close to her best tennis. Most observers attributed these results to Serena's nervousness and tension caused by finally confirming her G.O.A.T status by winning her 24th title. I agree that the emotional/mental side was part of the reason she lost those matches (especially the  US Open final) but also she never looked like she was moving as well as she has in the past and her serve was not as effective as it has been in this tournament. With all that said, I think Halep has a non-trivial chance to win the match. The courts are playing more like a clay court and Halep is a better mover than Serena on clay (or slow) courts. She will get a lot of balls back in play and this may frustrate Serena if she has to hit 2 or 4 winners to win the point. But I think Serena will be mentally prepared and physically to do so. MadProfessah's pick: Serena.  

Tuesday, July 09, 2019

2019 WIMBLEDON: Men's Quarterfinals Preview (and Predictions)


Here are my predictions for the men's quarterfinals at the 2019 Wimbledon Championships I have also predicted the men's quarterfinals. Last year I predicted 2 of 4 men's quarterfinals correctly and 4 of 4 women's quarterfinals correctly. I also correctly predicted 3 of 4  women's quarterfinals this year.

Novak Djokovic (SRB) [1] vs David Goffin (BEL) [21].  Djokovic has yet to lose a set at this year's tournament and is currently on 31 of 32 Grand Slam winning streak. His only loss since winning Wimbledon 2018, US Open 2019 and Australian Open 2019 is a semifinal loss to Dominic Thiem on clay at last month's Roland Garros. He holds a 5-1 head-to-head lead over David Goffin but the two have never played on grass. People are saying the grass courts this year are playing like clay courts, which is Goffin's best surface. The big 3 have been putting on a clinic on how to dismantle opponents; Djokovic only gave up 8 games in his previous round. I don't think the score will be that lopsided in the quarterfinal but the result will be the same. Mad Professah's pick: Djokovic.

Guido Pella (ARG) vs Roberto Bautista Agut (ESP) [23]. Before the tournament started the draw (and who should be seeded #2, Federer or Nadal) was a large point of contention. Djokovic was the winner in both respects because both of his fellow members of the trivalry are in the other half this year, and his top half of the draw has collapsed. To reach the final, the world #1 will face opponents who he has a 13-4 advantage against. Guido Pella did amazingly well to outlast 2016 finalist Milos Raonic. Amazingly, Pella has defeated 3 former Wimbledon finalists in the last 2 years (2017 Finalist Marin Cilic last year and  2018 finalists Kevin Anderson in the 3rd round this year). Bautista Agut is having a great year and he has already beaten Djokovic twice this year already. Mad Professah's pick: Bautista Agut.

Rafael Nadal (ESP) [3] vs Sam Querrey (USA). Sam Querrey and Rafael Nadal have not played for more than 2 years, but the American's last meeting was a victorious one on the hard courts of Acapulco. Querrey is putting on a serving clinic in this tournament and has only had  his serve broken once! He knows that he can beat the very best at Wimbledon, having done so in 2016 when he defeated Djokovic, who had just achieved the historic Nole Slam. That defeat lead to a 2-year spiral for Djokovic which he only pulled out of at last year's Wimbledon. The problem for Querrey is that the courts are resembling a clay court and that is a bad sign for anyone not named Nadal. Mad Professah's pick: Nadal.

Roger Federer (SUI) [2] vs Kei Nishikori  (JPN) [8]. Kei Nishikori has a respectable head-to-head of 3-7 against the Greatest of all Time, and even won their last meeting in straight sets at the 2018 Year-End Championships in London. Federer won their only grass meeting in Halle. Nishikori has done something unusual for him at this year's Wimbledon: he lost only 1 set and won 12 to reach the qurterfinals. Typically the Japanese #1 gets caught up in long 5-set matches in early rounds of majors and thus doesn't get very far in the second week. Will it matter the way Federer is playing at the moment as evinced by his demolition  of young excellent grass-court player in Matteo Berettini? Probably not.  Mad Professah's pick: Federer.

Tuesday, June 11, 2019

2019 FRENCH OPEN: Nadal Wins 18th Major, Record 12th(!) Roland Garros Title





As I predicted, Rafael Nadal won his 12th Roland Garros title on Sunday, defeating Dominc Thiem for the second year in a row  6-3 5-7 6-1 6-1. The King of Clay is now 93-2 on the clay courts in Paris, having only ever lost to Novak Djokovic (2015) and Robin Soderling (2009).

The win brings Nadal, 33, to 18 major singles title, just 2 behind Roger Federer, 37 and 3 ahead of Djokovic's 15. Djokovic still is the World #1, but Nadal has reached two major finals this year and won one of them. Djokovic has the maximum number of points to defend at Wimbledon and the U.S. Open while Nadal has semifinals points to defend in both (Wimbledon l. Djokovic, US Open l. Juan Martin del Potro). To me there's no question that Nadal is the greatest of all time on clay, but I think the question of who is the greatest tennis player of all time it's still too early too tell, but currently Federer occupies that spot with his astonishing 20 major singles title. Amazingly, Nadal's 12 titles at Roland Garros is more major titles than Rod Laver, John McEnroe, Bjorn Borg, Andre Agassi, Stefan Edberg and many other great players earned in their entire career. Only 4 players, (Don Budge, Pete Sampras, Djokovic and Federer) have won more majors than Nadal has won French Open titles. To me, Nadal's extreme dominance in one area is a counter-argument to his claim to greatness because he has only won3 US Opens, 1 Australian Open and 2 Wimbledons, which are not really "notable achievements" taken together. Regardless, the conversation and arguments will continue until all 3 retire, which hopefully will not be for quite awhile!

Friday, June 07, 2019

2019 FRENCH OPEN: Men's Semifinals Preview


Here are my predictions for the women's semifinals at the 2019 French Open I have also predicted the women's semifinals. This year I predicted 0 of 4 women's quarterfinals correctly and 4 of 4 men's quarterfinals correctly. Last year I predicted 2 of 2 men's semifinals correctly and 2 of 2 women's semifinals correctly.


Novak Djokovic (SRB) [1] vs Dominic Thiem (AUT) [4]

 Unlike the women's tournament, where there will be a first-time grand slam winner and there are two unseeded teenage players in the semifinals, the men's tournament features a player in his 4th consecutive Roland Garros semifinal, and he's the least accomplished player of the quarter remaining in the draw! This is the 8th meeting between Djokovic and Thiem and the 15-time major champion leads 6-2, including 3-2 on clay. But Thiem beat Djokovic in the semifinal round here 2 years ago in straight sets, when Djokovic was close to his nadir. However, the World #1 has now won 26 Grand Slam matches in a row and there's pretty good chance that he will win his second career Nole Slam on Sunday. Such a feat would cement his status as the future G.O.A.T, ahead of his two contemporaries in the golden "trivalry" of Federer-Nadal-Djokovic. Only the Prince of Clay stands in his way from a potential (record!) 55th meeting with Nadal in the final of Roland Garros on Sunday, the most difficult feat in tennis, one that he has accomplished once before. It's hard to bet against him, and I wouldn't. Mad Professah's pick: Djokovic.

Rafael Nadal (ESP) [2] vs Roger Federer (SUI) [3] 
Well here we are! After skipping the clay for the last three years in the second wind of his career to concentrate on winning Wimbledon, Federer surprised the tennis world by agreeing to play the clay season. I agree with most observers who think this will probably be the last time we see Federer play on clay, and this is one reason he is happy to have made the semifinals (and the concomitant ranking points) as well as this last opportunity to meet Rafa on clay, where he has lost 13 of 15 matches the two have played.  Interestingly, this semifinal result is the best Federer has had in the last four slams, having lost in the fourth round in Australia (to Stefanos Tsitsipas) and New York (to John Millman) and the quarterfinal (to Kevin Anderson). Presumably, he expects his results in the next four slams to be decidedly better as he prepares to retire after the Tokyo Olympics (as he chases the elusive Singles Gold medal). This Federer-Nadal XXXIX or #Fedal39 and even though Federer has won the last 5 meetings against Nadal (bringing the head-to-head deficit to only 15-23 thanks to a tennis racquet with a larger head and a more forceful and aggressive topspin backhand) the matchup has never been great for the Swiss Maestro, especially on clay. I would love for Federer to win this match, but I find it hard to even see him winning a set, frankly. And I'm okay with that. I wish the draw had been different and Thiem was in Federer's half and Nadal in Djokovic's. Then I would think there's a VERY good chance of a Federer-Djokovic final. This year, I don't think that's gonna happen. Mad Professah's pick: Nadal.

Monday, March 04, 2019

2019 DUBAI: Federer Wins 100th ATP Career Title! #RF100


Roger Federer won his 100th career title in Dubai on Saturday, becoming the second male player to reach this landmark, after Jimmy Connors who ended his career with 109 titles. Can Federer equal or break this record? Possibly, but it will be tough unless either he plays beyond the 2020 Olympics, which many of us doubt he will do, or he goes on a winning spree in the next 15 months or so.

Another question is will Federer's title haul exceed his other rivals for G.O.A.T. status, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic, both of whom have more Masters Series shields than the Swiss player. Djokovic has 73 titles while Nadal has 80, but they are both 6 and 5 years younger than Federer, respectively.

Federer's 100th title came at the Duai Duty Free Open, where he has now been champion 8 times in his career. He beat Stefanos Tsitsipas the 21-year-old Greek phenom who ended Federer's title defence of the Australian Open this January. Tsitsipas has a game style reminiscent of Federer's (great movement, shot-making, one-handed backhand) but he's 6-foot-4. Federer had an awful conversion rate on breakpoints in their first meeting in Melbourne but in Dubai he broke in the very first game of the match, defended the 2 breakpoints he had serving out the first set, and then broke Tsitsipas again in the 19th game of the match and easily held serve to win the second set and championship 6-4 6-4.

Sunday, September 09, 2018

2018 US OPEN: Djokovic Wins 14th Major (defeating del Potro)





Surprising some, Novak Djokovic won the 2018 U.S. Open men's singles title by defeating Juan Martin del Potro 6-3 7-6(4) 6-3. With this win Djokovic has jump started hisyear by winning two majors, Wimbledon and the U.S. Open, and brought his career total to 14 majors, tying Pete Sampras at #3 on the all-time list, behind Rafael Nadal at 17 and Roger Federer at 20. Since he is 31, Nadal is 32 and Federer is 37 the Serb has a reasonable chance of ending his career with more majors than the Spaniard, and may even catch the Swiss's total. His partisans note that, right now, he has a head-to-head advantage of 24-22 over Federer, 27-25 over Nadal and 25-11 over Andy Murray and 19-5 over Stan Wawrinka.

Could these two consecutive major title wins be the first half of a second Nole slam (to be completed in 2019)?

Saturday, July 14, 2018

2018 WIMBLEDON: Women's Final Preview (and Semifinals Review)

Angelique Kerber (GER) [11] vs Serena Williams (USA) [25] 

Here are my predictions for the women's final at the Wimbledon Championships for 2018. This year I correctly predicted 2 of 4 men's quarterfinals, correctly predicted 4 of 4 women's quarterfinals, and 2 of 2 women's semifinals. Last year I incorrectly predicted Venus Williams would defeat Garbine Muguruza. 


WOMEN'S SEMIFINALS REVIEW

 Angelique Kerber (GER) [11] dJelena Ostapenko (LAT) [12] 6-3 6-3. This was a much more complicated match than is reflected by the score. The result was ultimately decided by Ostapenko's refusal to stop aiming for the lines and making far too many errors (in addition to blasting dozens of winners). Basically, Kerber's defense was more effective than Ostapenko's offense. However, Kerber was up 5-1 in the second set and started making errors, Ostapenko stopped missing and suddenly things got complicated when serving for the match in the 9th game, but ultimately she held and won the match.

 Serena Williams (USA) [25] d. Julia Goerges (GER) [13] 6-2 6-4This was the match that demonstrated to most observers that Serena is almost back to the level she was at before she left the tour to have a child. Although she lost as many games as Kerber did in her match, the result of this one never really seemed in doubt. In other words, the result of this match was not as close as the score indicates. Goerges acquitted herself well and did not seem negatively affected by the occasion of playing in her first major semifinal. The main reason she lost was because Serena was simply the better player that day.

WOMEN'S FINAL PREVIEW

This match-up is a reprise of the 2016 Wimbledon final which was won be Serena after the two had met at the Australian Open where Kerber had stunned Serena to win in three sets. This is Serena's 30th major final and she has a superlative 23-6 record. She has only lost major finals to 5 people, and only her sister Venus Williams has done it twice (2001 US Open, 2008 Wimbledon). The others are Maria Sharapova (2004 Wimbledon), Sam Stosur ( 2011 US Open), Angelique Kerber (2016 Australian Open), and Garbine Muguruza (2016 French Open). The two have played 8 times on tour and Kerber has won twice (2012 Cincinnati Open and 2016 Australian Open). Kerber at least has had the experience of beating Serena in a final so she knows its possible, Serena is also very aware of this fact and has great respect for the German's counterpunching skills. 

So, it is possible that Serena could lose this match, but it is unlikely. If she does win, it will be an amazing achievement to come back and win a major title after more than a year's absence from tennis, having a baby and experiencing life-threatening consequences. With 24 major titles, Serena will have as many major titles as anyone who has ever played tennis and will most likely go on to win more to cement her status as the Greatest of all Time. 

MadProfessah's pick: Serena.

Sunday, June 10, 2018

2018 FRENCH OPEN: Nadal Wins 17th Major (11th French Open) By Beating Dominic Thiem






As I predicted, Spaniard Rafael Nadal won his 11th French Open title in Paris on Sunday, his 17th major overall by defeating Dominic Thiem of Austria by the score of 6-4 6-3 6-2. Nadal won the tournament by only dropping a single set (in the quarterfinals of Diego Schwartzman of Argentina).

HOW THE FINAL WAS WON
Thiem started off the match very badly, losing the first 6 points in a row and was broken immediately. However, quite surprisingly he was able to break back and even the score at 2-all. Games went on sere until Thiem was serving at 4-5 when suddenly he payed a horrible game, going down 0-40 (triple set point for Nadal) and lost the next point to lose the first set. He also got broken almost immediately in the second set ad it was basically all down hill from there, with another straight sets win for Nadal.

ANALYSIS OF THE RESULT
Amazingly, Federer and Nadal have won the last 6 major titles, both over the age of 30. It means that Nadal, 32, is still only 3 major titles behind Federer's 20, and is 5 years younger (Federer tuns 37 in August). Today's win also means Nadal maintains the possibility (perhaps even the likelihood) of eventually evening and perhaps surpassing Federer's total of major singles titles. I would argue that the fact that Nadal is clearly the best on clay ever and has won 11 of his 17 titles on clay actually is an argument AGAINST the claim that Nadal is te G.O.A.T. It demonstrates that the source of his greatness is his dominance of clay (which is amazing) but the same cannot be said for either Grass (where he has 2 Wimbledon titles to Federer's 8) or hardcourts (where he has 4 major titles: 3 US Open and 1 Australian to Federer's 11: 5 US Open and 6 Australian).

The baton now switches to Federer to see if he can raise the G.O.A.T stakes again by winning Wimbledon, like he did last year. Only time will tell.

Tuesday, February 20, 2018

TENNIS TUESDAY: Federer Returns To #1; Kvitova Win Streak Reaches 13 and WTA Top 10; Young-Harrison Racial Controversy


FEDERER RETURNS TO ATP #1; BREAKING EVEN MORE RECORDS
By reaching the semifinals of the Amsterdam indoor tournament (after defending his 2017 Australian Open title last month) Roger Federer is now the #1 player for the first time in 5 years and at age 36 he eclipses Andre Agassi as the oldest player to ever reach the top of the ATP rankings. He sets and breaks multiple records by reaching the pinnacle of men's tennis again, replacing long-time rival Rafael Nadal at #1. He extends his record of most weeks at #1 to at least 303 and 5 years is the largest gap anyone has ever had between losing and regaining the #1 ranking.

FEDERER DEMOLISHES DIMITROV TO WIN 97TH CAREER TITLE
Not satisfied to simply reach the semifinals and return to World #1 at the ABN AMRO Indoors, Federer ended up winning the tournament by defeating Andreas Seppi followed by Grigor Dimitrov to win his 97th career title. His win over World #5 Dimitrov in the final was one of his most one-sided victories in  tour final (6-2 6-2) and is a good measure of his excellent form at the moment. Federer is now looking forward to reaching triple-digits in tour titles and may even be contemplating trying to surpass the all-time record of Jimmy Connnors at 109 before he retires.

KVITOVA WINS 13 MATCHES IN A ROW; INCLUDES BACK-TO-BACK TITLES
Despite having a tough first round loss to Andrea Petkovic (10-8 in the 3rd set!), Petra Kvitova has turned her year into high gear by winning 13 matches in a row (against top competition). The streak has earned her titles at the St. Petersburg and Doha tournaments. In Doha, she beat World #3 Elina Svitolina, World #1 Caroline Wozniacki and World #4 Garbine Muguruza! The win returns the 2-time major champion to the Top 10 on the WTA tour.

DONALD YOUNG ALLEGES RACIST REMARKS PART OF VERBAL DISPUTE DURING MATCH WITH RYAN HARRISON
After losing in straight sets to fellow American Ryan Harrison in a match that clearly features verbal fireworks between the players Donald Young tweeted "I’m shocked and disappointed, Ryan Harrison, to hear you tell me how you really feel about me as a black tennis player." Harrison strongly denied the accusation and an investigation by the ATP has resulted in no corroboration of Young's version of events. However, many people have noted that Harrison has been in several verbal clashes with his opponents in the last year, including  with Dudi Sela a few weeks ago at this year's Australian Open.

Monday, September 11, 2017

2017 US OPEN: Nadal Wins 16th Major



As I expected, Rafael Nadal defeated Kevin Anderson 6-3 6-4 6-4 to win the 2017 U.S. Open, claiming his 16th major title and 3rd in New York. He improved to 16-7 in major finals and reached the finals of 3 of the four majors in 2017, thus cementing his hold on the World #1 ranking for the year. Only Gilles Muller was able to beat him before the final round of a major this year, and that took an extraordinary 28-game final set. Roger Federer  and Nadal split the majors this year, with Federer winning the Australia Open (d. Nadal) and Wimbledon (d. Marin Cilic), and Nadal winning the French (d. Stan Wawrinka) and the U.S. Open. The other members of the big four, Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray failed to reach a major final in 2017 and have basically ceded the rest of the season to their older rivals.

Nadal's win means that just like this point last year, Nadal, 31, and Federer, 36, are again 3 major titles apart, but instead of being at 17 and 14 they have both separated themselves from the previous greats of the sport (Pete Sampras at 14) and now they are at 19 and 16 with the very real possibility they will both reach the once-inconceivable number of 20 singles slams each. Who will be the G.OA.T.?

Sunday, June 11, 2017

2017 FRENCH OPEN: Nadal Wins 15th Major, La Decima at Roland Garros






As expected, Rafael Nadal won his 15th major and 10th French Open title at Roland Garros today by defeating 2015 French Open champion Stan Wawrinka by the lopsided score of 6-2 6-3 6-1. Nadal's "La decima" is a historic sports achievement because no other player in the Open era had  ever won one of the major tennis tournaments ten times before. (Martina Navratilova won Wimbledon 9 times and Margaret Court won the Australian 11 times but *seven* of those wins were before the Open era began in 1968.)

For the third time in his career (2008 and 2010) Nadal won the French Open without dropping a set, in fact no one even won more than 4 games in any of the 27 sets he played this year, and he only gave up a grand total of 35 games, his stingiest performance yet.

The win means that Nadal is now by himself in second position on the all-time grad slam singles list, at 15, a mere 3 major titles behind Roger Federer who is five years older. There is a real question as to how many more French Opens Nadal can win, because no one expects him to stop competing at the tournament where he now sports a 85-2 record. If he ties Federer's record of 18, will Nadal be considered the G.O.A.T? In my opinion, he would have to surpass Federer's tally to convincingly win that argument, and Is still think that is unlikely to happen, but only time will tell!

2017 FRENCH OPEN: Men's Final Preview (and Semifinals Review)

Rafael Nadal (ESP) [4] vs. Stan Wawrinka (SUI) [3].
Here are my predictions for the men's final at Roland Garros. Last year I correctly predicted Novak Djokovic would beat Andy Murray in the men's final and incorrectly predicted Serena Williams would beat Garbine Muguruza in the women's finalThis year I did not predict that Jelena Ostapenko would beat Simona Halep in the final, but I did correctly predict 1 of 2 women's semifinals2 of 2 men's semifinals3 of 4 women's quarterfinals and 4 of 4 men's quarterfinals. 

Below is my review of the men's semifinals and my preview of the men's final at the 2017 French Open.

MEN'S SEMIFINALS REVIEW
Stan Wawrinka (SUI) [3] d. Andy Murray (GBR) 6-7(6) 6-3 5-7 7-6(3) 6-1. Although the final result was not that surprising (to me) the overall quality of the match was (to almost everyone). The World #1 and 2016 Roland Garros finalist had not been playing his best tennis in 2017 while the 2015 Roland Garros champion had not dropped a set in the first five rounds of play this year. However, somehow Murray was able to finally play some of his best tennis since he won this match-up last year, and Wawrinka (again) rose to the occasion, blasting an amazing 87 winners past Murray on clay!) The match was actually in Murray's control after the 3rd set but for unknown reasons he played an awful 4th set tiebreak and was quickly down 5-0 before putting up some more spirited resistance to dodge the final bagel set humiliation.

Rafael Nadal (ESP) [4] d. Dominic Thiem (AUT) [6] 6-3 6-4 6-0. As the 9-time French Open champion demolishes the field on to his seemingly inevitable 10th title (called La Decima by the press) he is constantly setting new records.  By only losing 7 games in this semifinal (against someone who had beaten him on clay in the last month and who dismissed the defending champion in straight sets the round before!) Nadal reached the final here only dropping a total of 29 games, just two more than the all-time record set by Bjorn Borg. Although some people had given Thiem a chance of pulling the upset here it seemed like a near impossibility to me. Even when Thiem opened the match with a break of serve, he was still down 4-1 fifteen minutes later, and in the end only the first two sets were even "competitive" and that is stretching the meaning of the word. TheAustrian youngster, who almost certainly will win a French Open title at some point, was unable to avoid the humiliation of a final set decimation, which I am pretty sure was intentional on Nadal's part.

MEN'S FINAL PREVIEW

Wawrinka has been in 3 major finals and sports a perfect 3-0 record. Nadal has been in 21 finals and has an impressive 14-7 record. It's pretty amazing that after losing a major final in Melbourne to his arch-nemesis, Nadal has another opportunity to re-insert himself into the G.O.A.T. discussion by becoming only the second player in history to win 15 majors and to again bring himself within striking distance of Federer's total of 18. The discussion about the greatest clay court player of all time is over: Nadal is the winner by acclamation.

It is true that Wawrinka is incredibly mentally tough and credits this aspect of the game with allowing him to have his incredible breakthrough at the age age of 28. The problem is I think the final will come down to who is physically tough. The weather forecast indicates that it will be well over 90 degrees and Nadal is perfectly ready, willing and able to spend 5 to 6 hours on court to claim this 10th French Open title. I believe Wawrinka is willing to do the same, but is he able? He just spent well over 4 hours winning his 5-set match over Murray and he has spent almost 5 hours more on court than Nadal has in the last two weeks. I believe that will be the edge and that Nadal will again be biting the French Open trophy after the last point is played.

MadProfessah's pick: Nadal.

Sunday, January 29, 2017

2017 AUS OPEN: Federer Wins 18th Major Over Nadal In 5-Sets #Fedal35






As I predicted, 35-year-old Roger Federer defeated 30-year-old Rafael Nadal in the finals of the 2017 Australian Open to win his 18th major title (5th Aussie Open), extending his lead at the top of the all-time men's grand slam singles leaderboard.

Playing for the 35th time and a record 9th major final, Federer's win over Nadal brought his record to 3-6 (3-2 in non-clay major finals) and changed the overall head-to-head to 23-12. It was the first time Federer had beaten Nadal at the Australian Open in four matches played and the first time he had won a major final since the 2012 Wimbledon, a drought of nearly four-and-a-half years after losing 3 consecutive major finals (2014 Wimbledon, 2015 Wimbledon, 2015 U.S. Open) to Novak Djokovic. It was the first time Federer won a 5th set in a major final since the 2009 Wimbledon win over Andy Roddick and the first time he had won a 5th set in a major final against Nadal since the 2007 Wimbledon final.

Men's Final Review: How The Title Was Won
R. Federer (SUI) [17] d. R. Nadal (ESP) [9] 6-4 3-6 6-1 3-6 6-3 in 3 hours and 38 minutes. 
Federer had more than twice as many winners than Nadal (73 to 35) and nearly twice as many unforced errors as well (57 to 28). However, the match was of a very high quality, with Federer at +16 and Nadal at +7. The match was primarily played on Federer's terrain, he was forcing things by going for more although, somewhat surprisingly, this was not because  of frequent serve-and-volley, although he was effective when he approached the net (29/40). The big difference in the match was Federer's backhand, which he hit flatter and with more pace and almost completely avoided his slice backhand entirely. He had 14 backhand winners for the match (to just 3 for Nadal). Forehand winners were closer, but again Federer had the edge there, 26 to 19. Clearly, Federer had learned some strategy from watching his fellow one-handed backhand players like Stan Wawrinka and Grigor Dimitrov had handled Nadal recently.

I woke up at 3:15am EST and watched the entire match, was completely riveting. Each of the first four sets began with early service breaks which ended up being determinative, with the third set being extremely notable because Federer was able to end the set with a consolidated second service break (something Nadal was not able to do in the 2nd set, despite being up 4-0 at one point). So when the fifth set began with an early service break for Nadal things did not look good for our hero. Then when despite having multiple breakpoints in Nadal's first two service games Federer failed to break, memories of previous Fedal matches where Federer would go 1/10 or 3/20 on break points came to mind. Eventually, Nadal built up a 3-1 lead in the fifth set. Amazingly, Federer was able to win the last five games in a row to close out the match. How did that happen? In the sixth game Federer was finally able to get the service break back and he held serve easily to go up 3-4 in the deciding set. In the epic 8th game Federer went up 40-0 on Nadal's serve but incredibly Nadal was able to save three consecutive breakpoints and get back to deuce. Amazingly, it took 2 more breakpoints (the 10th and 11th of the set!) before Nadal finally succumbed and Federer went up 5-3 to serve for the championship. That game did not start well with Nadal blistering a service return winner on the backhand side and another forced error, eventually led to a 5-3,15-40 situation for Federer. Down the stretch his serve bailed him out of trouble and two first serves got him back to deuce and on his first championship point Federer sent a forehand long. Happily, he was able to again serve an ace to earn a second championship point and this time he hit a forehand smack on the line which Nadal immediately challenged (even though the linesman called it good) so there was a brief pause until the computer could confirm that the ball was indeed in and the match was over!

Significance
Federer had (finally) won his 18th major title, doing it the hard way as the #17 seed by beating four Top 10 seeds (#10 Tomas Berdych, #5 Kei Nishikori, #3 Stan Wawrinka and #9 Rafael Nadal) and winning 3 five set matches along the way (Nishikori, Wawrinka and Nadal). He finally defeated his arch-nemesis at a Grand Slam tournament for the first time in nearly a decade  (the 2007 Wimbledon final). Amazingly, Federer achieved all this while playing in his first tournament since the 2016 Wimbledon, a injury-induced layoff of over 6 months. By increasing his lead in major singles titles over Nadal (and Pete Sampras) to four (18 to 14) Federer cements his status as the G.O.A.T. (greatest of all time) and makes it more likely this record will outlast the Big Four era since World #1 Andy Murray currently has 3 major titles and World #2 Novak Djokovic has 12.

Happy Federer Wins Day!

Saturday, July 09, 2016

2016 WIMBLEDON: Serena Beats Kerber To Win 22nd Major Title (7th Wimbledon)






As I expected, Serena Williams defeated Angelique Kerber 7-5 6-3 to win her 7th Wimbledon title and 22nd major title, tying Steffi Graf's open era record, and cementing her status as the greatest female tennis player of all time. (Technically, Margaret Court has 24 major singles titles, but only 11 of those were in the open era which began in 1968 and 7 of her 13 titles won before 1968 were in her home country of Australia, when not every top player competed in the Australian Open.)

Serena's win today means that she is 22-6 (79%) in major finals; it took her 346 grans slam matches to win 22 major titles, while it took Graf 303. Serena has won 304 grand slam matches (which is second behind Martina Navratilova's 306 grand slam match wins). At age 34, Serena is the oldest major champion ever, Graf won none of her titles over the age of 30, while Serena has won 10 (so far!) Serena won her first title at the age of 17 in 1999, but Graf won 9 of her titles before her 20th birthday.

WOMEN'S FINAL REVIEW
The match was a high quality affair, with both women hitting far more winners than errors. The key weapon in he match was Serena's serve. She had 13 aces, and only faced one break point (which she saved with an ace). From the back of the court, Kerber was superior, and when they got into long rallies the German was often the victor. However, with Serena holding serve relatively easily, most of the action was in Kerber's service games, and eventually the breaks came (in the 12th game of the first set) and the 8th game of the second set. Serena served out the match with 3 unreturnable serves and on championship point hit a duck volley into the open court.

Sunday, June 05, 2016

2016 FRENCH OPEN: Djokovic Wins 12th Major, Achieves Career Slam & Nole Slam At Same Time







As I predicted, Novak Djokovic won the 2016 Roland Garros men's singles title by defeating Andy Murray 3-6 6-1 6-2 6-4. Djokovic's win was historic: he finally won his first French Open title in his fourth appearance in the Roland Garros final, becoming the eighth man in history to achieve the career slam. In fact, he has now won the last four consecutive majors, becoming the first man in 47 years to simultaneously hold all four major titles, sometimes called the Nole slam.

MEN'S FINAL REVIEW
The final was of relatively high quality, although both players started off nervously, trading breaks at the very beginning. Murray settled down first and was able to nurse his break advantage to take the first set 6-3. Djokovic settled down almost immediately once the second set began and broke Murray immediately and ran away with the first set 6-1. It was clear by the time the third set was half over that Murray's moment had passed and it was only a matter of time before Djokovic would be achieving his longterm goal of the career slam.

Djokovic is now fourth on the all-time list of major singles titles, behind Roger Federer (17), Rafael Nadal and Pete Sampras (14). He increased his head-to-head  to 24-10 against Murray and is  now 5-2 in major finals against Murray and 12-8 in major finals overall. Murray falls to 2-8 in major finals.

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