CELEBRITY FRIDAY: Hillary Clinton Turns 71 Today

Hillary Rodham Clinton turns 71 today. She is the wife of  former U.. President William Jefferson Clinton and the winner of the popular vote in the 2016 presidential election. The winner of the electoral  vote, President Trump was born June 17, 1946, so is 72 years old.

Happy Birthday, Hillary!

4 Days After #ElectionDay: Clinton 228, Trump 290. MI(16),NH(4) Uncalled!

It is now 4 days after Election Day and the full results in the presidential election are still not known. Donald Trump is the president-elect of the United States because he has won more vote in enough states to claim more than 270 electoral votes. However, Hillary Clinton now leads by over  600,000 votes in the popular vote total; this is expected to swell to over 1 million by the time California certifies its results in December. Currently, they have only tabulated roughly 9 million votes in a state where 12 million people votes in 2012 and Clinton leads 2-to-1.

Since I blogged last on Wednesday, Arizona (11 electoral votes) was called definitively for Trump on Friday even though he won there relatively handily 49-44 in what used to be thought of as a non-swing state. In Michigan, Trump leads by roughly 13,000 votes out of 4.7 million votes cast. In New Hampshire (4 electoral votes) Clinton, is ahead by a narrow total of 2528 votes out of 700,000 cast. The U.S. Senate race in New Hampshire (which, at an estimated total of $100 million spent, was the most expensive of the year) was decided in Governor Maggie Hassan's favor over incumbent Kelly Ayotte by a mere 743 votes! Ayotte has surprisingly conceded the race without requesting a recount.

Stay tuned!

2016 ELECTION: Trump 279, Clinton 228. AZ(11),MI(16),NH(4) Uncalled

Donald Trump was elected 45th President of the United States  last night this morning when Pennsylvania and Wisconsin were called for the GOP candidate, eliminating Hillary Clinton's path to 270 electoral votes, as Trump surpassed that threshold.. Like in 2000, the Democratic candidate will win the popular vote, but lose in the electoral college. The 27 electoral votes of Arizona (11) and Michigan (16), New Hampshire (4) are still close to call but Trump is leading there. He also won a rare electoral college vote in the North East by wining Maine's 2nd congressional district.

Today is #ElectionDay! Clinton 0.716, Trump 0.284

Today is (finally!) election day in America. The final 538.com election prediction has a 71.6% chance of winning for Clinton-Kaine and a 28.4% chance of winning for Trump-Pence. This is slightly up from previous days in the last week, when 3 days ago Trump's chances of becoming president were just above 35%. All will be revealed tonight!

1 Day Until #ElectionDay: Clinton 0.658, Trump 0.342

Tomorrow is Election Day! With 1 day of the 2016 presidential race remaining, Clinton-Kaine have a 65.8% chance of winning, while Trump-Pence have a 34.2% chance of success, according to 538.com.

2 Days Until #ElectionDay: Clinton 0.649, Trump 0.35

Today's snapshot of the 538.com probability of who will win the election on Tuesday November 8th is being posted late because I travelled from Los Angeles to Washington, D.C. The current numbers are Clinton-Kaine 64.9% and Trump-Pence 35%, which are essentially unchanged from yesterday but very different from what they were 2 weeks ago.

3 Days Until #ElectionDay : Clinton 0.647, Trump 0.352

4 Days Until #ElectionDay: Clinton 0.684, Trump 0.315

Source: FiveThirtyEight.com

5 Days Until #ElectionDay: Clinton 0.669, Trump 0.331

Source: FiveThirtyeight.com

6 Days Until #ElectionDay: Clinton 0.707, Trump 0.292

Source: FiveThrtyEight.com

1 Week Until #ElectionDay: Clinton 0.738, Trump 0.262

The 2016 presidential election is just one week (7 days!) away. The 538.com forecast shows a significant movement towards the Trump-Pence ticket from last week's numbers. Right now, Clinton-Kaine has a 73.8% chance of winning the presidency, while Trump-Pence is 26.2% (which is up from last week's 13.8%).

2 Weeks Until #ElectionDay: Clinton 0.861, Trump 0.138

There are only 2 weeks left (14 days!) before the 2016 Presidential Election will be determined on November 8. This week, the 538.com forecast has Clinton-Kaine ticket has an 86.1% chance of winning, with Trump-Pence having a 13.8% chance of winning. This is slightly changed from last week's probabilities (88.2% Clinton-Trump, 11.8% Trump-Pence).

3 Weeks Until #ElectionDay: Clinton 0.882, Trump 0.118

The probabilities in the 2016 presidential race have moved sharply in favor of the Clinton-Kaine ticket in the last week. With just 21 days (3 weeks) before election day, the latest numbers from FiveThirtyEight.com show a 0.882 probability America will elect its first female president, with just a 0.112 chance Donald Trump will win his first elected office on November 8th. Last week, the probabilities were 0.84 Clinton, 0.16 Trump. Since i began blogging about the data, the probabilities have been as close as Clinton 0.546, Trump 0.454 just 3 weeks ago so the numbers can change rather rapidly. 

Will they change again? We'll know more in 21 days!

4 Weeks Until #ElectionDay: Clinton 0.84, Trump 0.16

Election Day is now exactly 4 weeks (28 days!) away. FiveThirtyEight's election prediction model says that Hillary Clinton has a probability of  0.84 of becoming president, while Donald J. Trump has a 0.16 probability of winning the 2016 presidential election. This is a significant change from last week, when their relative chances were 0.718 for Clinton-Kaine and 0.282 for Trump-Pence.

5 Weeks Until #ElectionDay: Clinton 0.718, Trump 0.282

There are now 5 weeks (35 days) until November 8, 2016, election day. The FiveThirtyEight election forecast  now says the probability that Hillary Clinton will be elected president is now 0.718 (Donald Trump's chance of winning is now 0.282). This is a dramatic jump from last week, where the probability was 0.546 Clinton, 0.454 Trump. That shows the volatility in the prediction, although it must of course be noted that in between now and then, the most watched presidential debate in historym occurred, with more than 84 million people viewing the debate on Monday September 26.

The Vice-Presidential debate is tomorrow night. Can it possibly have as large an effect on the probabilities? The second Presidential debate is next Sunday, October 9th.

6 Weeks Until #ElectionDay: Clinton 0.546, Trump 0.454

I've been busy all day so I didn't get to post the latest prediction by FiveThirtyEight.com about the candidates' relative chances to be president with 42 days remaining (6 weeks) before election day. Hillary Clinton has a probability of 0.546 while Donald Trump has a probability  of 0.454. Last week, Clinton had a probability of 0.589 while Trump had a probability of 0.411.

7 Weeks Until #ElectionDay: Clinton 0.589, Trump 0.411

There are 7 weeks (49 days) until election day, November 8 2016. FiveThirtyEight.com's forecasting model of the 2016 presidential election gives Hillary Clinton approximately a 59% chance of winning, compared to Donald Trump's 41%. Last week, these numbers were 0.682 (Clinton) and 0.318 (Trump).

8 Weeks Until Election Day: Clinton 0.682, Trump 0.318

It's that time again! 56 days from today (8 weeks) we will learn who will be the 45th President of the United Status as Americans in every state go to the polls on November 8. My current employment status as a federal employee does not allow me to comment publicly on partisan races but it doesn't preclude me from sharing information. I did this last time in the Obama-Romney election as well, but I started much earlier and used the Talking Points Memo Electoral College Scoreboard.

Periodically for the next eight weeks I will post election forecasts, probably from Nate Silver's fivethirtyeight.com. Instead of posting estimated electoral vote tallies, Five Thirty Eight comes up with a probability (i.e. a number between 0 and 1) of who will win the presidential race if it were held right now. That is the information I will post regularly here. Enjoy the next 8 weeks!

June 26 is National #LGBTEquality Day (1 Year Since Nationwide Marriage Equality!)

Today is June 26 and it is being called "National LGBT Equality Day" by openly lesbian United States Senator (I just love saying that!!) Tammy Baldwin. This year, June 26th is the one-year anniversary of the release of Obergefell v. Hodges (which legalized marriage equality nationwide), the 3-year anniversary of United States v. Windsor (which repealed the so-called Defense of Marriage Act) and Hollingsworth v. Perry (which repealed Proposition 8 and restored marriage equality to California) and the 13-year anniversary of Lawrence v. Texas (which struck down any remaining laws criminalizing homosexuality).

Those are some pretty momentous events which should be officially commemorated, I think!

Hillary Clinton thinks so, as well:

“One year ago today, we celebrated a watershed moment for equality in America. Thanks to the bravery of LGBT Americans like Jim Obergefell and Edie Windsor, and the determination and tireless organizing of the LGBT community and their allies, marriage equality became the law of the land in all 50 states. 

“Over the last year, more barriers to equality have fallen – including, finally, the last state law banning same-sex couples from adopting. Just this month, President Obama designated Stonewall as the first national monument commemorating LGBT history in America. 

“We’ve also seen how much work is still unfinished. The attack in Orlando broke our hearts, and reminded us that LGBT people – particularly people of color – are still targets for harassment and violence. Discriminatory laws in states like North Carolina highlight the need for full federal equality under the law for LGBT Americans. And Donald Trump’s pledge to consider appointing Supreme Court justices who would overturn marriage equality underscores the fact that so much of the progress we’ve made is at stake in November. 

“But even when the road ahead seems daunting, never forget: on this day in history, love triumphed in the highest court in the land. Today, our march toward a more perfect union continues—toward equality, dignity, and justice for all.”

QUEER QUOTE: Hillary Clinton Blasts Roy Moore's Attempts To Obstruct Marriage Equality in Alabama

Our first Queer Quote of 2016 comes from Hillary Clinton who blasted Alabama Chief Judge Roy Moore's bizarre attempt to prevent marriage equality in Alabama. Here's the quote:

“Marriage equality is now the law of the land—including in Alabama. Today’s unconstitutional order reminds us that, despite the Supreme Court's ruling that all Americans have the right to marry the person they love, our work is far from over.  There are still judges who are determined to stand in the way of people's rights.  There are still politicians who argue the Court got it wrong and states should ignore its ruling.  We need to ensure that marriage equality is guaranteed and enforced nationwide.   And we need to fight discrimination against LGBT Americans wherever it occurs.  There are places where you can get married on Sunday and are at risk of being fired from your job or evicted from your home on Monday because you're gay.  That's not how it should be in the United States of America.  As President, I'll fight for the equal rights of all Americans, no matter who they are or who they love.”

Hat/tip to New Civil Rights Movement