Here is my annual prediction post for the 2022 Oscars, i.e. the 94th Academy Awards. I really just consider the Top 8 categories on the blog but I often play the Oscar prediction game like lots of other people (on other websites) where I think about all 24 categories. In 2019 I predicted 4 of 8 categories correctly and in 2020 I predicted 6 of 8 correctly. Last year, I predicted 5 of 8 correctly. This year I have seen 7 of the (bolded) 10 Best Picture nominees (haven't seen Drive My Car, West Side Story or CODA). I do intend to see CODA regardless of whether it wins Best Picture.
Best Picture:
- "Belfast"
- "CODA"
- "Don't Look Up"
- "Drive My Car"
- "Dune"
- "King Richard"
- "Licorice Pizza"
- "Nightmare Alley"
- "The Power of the Dog"
- "West Side Story"
SHOULD WIN: Dune.
WILL WIN: The Power of the Dog.
Director:
- Kenneth Branagh (“Belfast”)
- Ryusuke Hamaguchi (“Drive My Car”)
- Paul Thomas Anderson (“Licorice Pizza”)
- Jane Campion (“The Power of the Dog”)
- Steven Spielberg (“West Side Story”)
SHOULD WIN: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog.
WILL WIN: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog.
Lead Actor:
- Javier Bardem (“Being the Ricardos”)
- Benedict Cumberbatch (“The Power of the Dog”)
- Andrew Garfield (“Tick,Tick,...Boom!")
- Will Smith (“King Richard”)
- Denzel Washington (“The Tragedy of Macbeth”)
SHOULD WIN: Will Smith, King Richard.
WILL WIN: Will Smith, King Richard.
Lead Actress:
- Jessica Chastain (“The Eyes of Tammy Faye”)
- Olivia Colman (“The Lost Daughter”)
- Penélope Cruz (“Parallel Mothers”)
- Nicole Kidman (“Being the Ricardos”)
- Kristen Stewart (“Spencer”)
SHOULD WIN: Kristen Stewart, Spencer.
WILL WIN: Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Supporting Actor:
- Ciarán Hinds (“Belfast”)
- Troy Kotsur (“CODA”)
- Jesse Plemons (“The Power of the Dog”)
- J.K. Simmons (“Being the Ricardos”)
- Kodi Smit-McPhee (“The Power of the Dog”)
SHOULD WIN: Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog.
WILL WIN: Troy Katsur, CODA.
Supporting Actress:
- Jessie Buckley (“The Lost Daughter”)
- Ariana DeBose (“West Side Story”)
- Judi Dench (“Belfast”)
- Kirsten Dunst (“The Power of the Dog”)
- Aunjanue Ellis (“King Richard”)
SHOULD WIN: Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard.
WILL WIN: Ariana DeBose, West Side Story.
Original Screenplay:
- Kenneth Branagh (“Belfast”)
- Adam McKay; Story by Adam McKay & David Sirota (“Don't Look Up”)
- Zach Baylin (“King Richard”)
- Paul Thomas Anderson ("Licorice Pizza")
- Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier (“The Worst Person in the World”)
SHOULD WIN: Belfast.
WILL WIN: Belfast.
Adapted Screenplay:
- Siân Heder (“CODA”)
- Ryusuke Hamaguchi and Takamasa Oe (“Drive My Car”)
- Jon Spaihts and Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth (“Dune”)
- Maggie Gyllenhaal ("The Lost Daughter")
- Jane Campion (“The Power of the Dog”)
SHOULD WIN: Dune.
WILL WIN: CODA.
