GODLESS WEDNESDAY: Ireland Votes To Abolish Blasphemy Laws

This past weekend voters in Ireland decided to abolish laws against blasphemy by approving a  referendum to remove the word "blasphemous" from the following clause in the constitution of the republic of Ireland:

The publication or utterance of blasphemous, seditious, or indecent matter is an offence which shall be punishable in accordance with law.

There was also a 2009 law on the books (the Defamation Act of 2009) which included blasphemy as an offense and had never been used but came to public notice in 2015 when openly gay actor Stephen Fry was investigated by the Irish police (after a complaint by an unknown  member of the public) for saying on Irish television "The god that created this universe, if it was created by a god, is quite clearly a maniac, utter maniac, totally selfish." Fry's potential legal jeopardy put the issue on the map, which eventually led to the referendum this week in which 64.85%  voted YES (43% turnout) to remove blasphemy from the Irish constitution. The government will follow with legislation to implement the will of the people to abolish the "crime" of blasphemy.

Good news!

SUNDAY POLITICS: Comparing Presidential Approval Rating Variability

Hat/tip Political Wire

POLL: Support for marriage equality now 67% Yes 33% No

I'm still on vacation in Iceland but could not resist posting the information that public support for marriage equality has now been completely inverted in the last two decades, from 2:1 opposition to 2:1 support! I have been working for and involved with the freedom to marry movement since the early 1990s so this result is quite heartwarming.

Hat/tip USA TODAY

GOOD NEWS! Australia Plebiscite Shows 61.6% Support Marriage Equality

The results of the months-long mail-in plebiscite on marriage equality in Australia were released yesterday and show that a vast majority of the country supports marriage equality down under!

The New York Times reports:

MELBOURNE, Australia — A solid majority of Australians voted in favor of same-sex marriage in a historic survey that, while not binding, paves the way for Parliament to legally recognize the unions of gay and lesbian couples. 

Of 12.7 million Australians who took part in the government survey, 61.6 percent voted yes and 38.4 percent voted no, officials announced on Wednesday morning. Participation was high, with 79.5 percent of voting-age Australians sending back their postal ballots. 

“The Australian people have spoken, and they have voted overwhelmingly ‘yes’ for marriage equality,” said Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, who called the survey in a move described by advocates as a delay tactic devised to appease his party’s far-right faction. “They voted ‘yes’ for fairness, they voted ‘yes’ for commitment, they voted ‘yes’ for love.” 

The high turnout and unequivocal result amounted to a rebuke for Australia’s most conservative politicians, many of whom saw a majority of their constituents vote to support same-sex marriage despite their arguments against it.

Woo hoo! I think it may be time to plan a return trip to Oz in 2018!

GODLESS WEDNESDAY: Partisan Differences In Religious Affiliation

From Five Thirty Eight comes this interesting analysis of a report from the Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI) which discusses the implications from looking at the differences in partisan affiliation of various religious groups. There are opportunities and challenges for Democrats:

There’s also evidence in the report that young religious voters of color in particular may feel less loyalty to the Democrats than older generations did. Only 35 percent of Hispanic Catholics under the age of 30 identify as Democrats, compared to 56 percent of Hispanic Catholic seniors. Similarly, just 58 percent of black Protestants under 30 say they’re Democrats, compared to 79 percent of black Protestants over the age of 65.

and Republicans:

So far, having a base that’s composed overwhelmingly of one demographic group hasn’t doomed Republican candidates — white, conservative Christian voters have been the bedrock of the GOP base since the 1980s and helped deliver President Trump to the White House last year. In 2016, a whopping 35 percent of Republicans were white evangelical Protestants, 18 percent were white mainline Protestants, and 16 percent were white Catholics; together, those groups account for nearly 70 percent of the Republican base.

To me, the most interesting aspect of the report is the age breakdown of the "religiously unaffiliated" (which I would call "the godless").  The results are 34% are age 18-29, 37% are 30-49, 19% are 50-64 and 10% are 65+.

GODLESS WEDNESDAY: Australians Becoming Much More Godless!

There's some interesting news out of Australia and the changing (decreasing) prevalence of religiosity among their populace. They conduct a census every 5 years and one of the questions they ask is about religion.

The 2016 results were published this week:

After decades of rapid growth, the number of Australians marking “no religion” on their census forms has for the first time surpassed Catholicism as the most common answer to a prompt in the country's 2016 Census about religion, according to data released Monday. If all Christian denominations are considered together, they would make up just over half of respondents. 

The number of respondents who identified as nonreligious — 30.1 percent — almost doubled from 15.5 percent in 2001. Less than 1 percent identified that way in 1966, the year Australia lifted its “White Australia Policy,” which opened up immigration to non-Europeans and kicked off broader demographic changes. Australia's population has also more than doubled since then.

Hmmm, so we learn several things from this excerpt. First, Australia had a "White Australia Policy" until 1966! Secondly, 30% of Australians identify as essentially irreligious (or "Godless" as we like to say around here). That compares pretty favorably to the rate in the United States, which PRRI estimates to be 25% (in 2016). The following graph also indicates that the growth in the fraction of the population in the United States that is "religiously unaffiliated" has changed dramatically in the last few decades.

Hat/tip to Washington Post and PRRI

GODLESS WEDNESDAY: Poll Reveals Republicans Do Not Believe In Religious Liberty

Here at MadProfessah.com we are extremely interested in religious liberty, especially for those who are atheists agnostic or godless. A new exclusive poll from PPP for DailyKos.com reveals that Republicans (who seem to spend a fair amount of their time bleating about religious liberties) really don't seem to understand what taht term actually means.

Nationwide, more than a third of Republicans say that Islam should be illegal in the United States, according to a new PPP poll provided exclusively to Daily Kos Elections. Nearly half—a 44 percent plurality—say Christianity should be our official religion. 

[...] 

Lest you think this is solely confined to Republicans, smaller numbers of both Democrats and independents also admitted to wanting to outlaw Islam (15 percent of Democrats, 20 percent of independents) and make Christianity our official religion (28 and 24 percent, respectively). 

Overall, for all respondents, the share that supports freedom of religion in deed, not just in word, barely clears the halfway mark: Just 53 percent of voters oppose making Christianity the official religion of the United States, and only 56 percent think Islam should be legal.

As the post describes this result: It looks like we are "halfway to theocracy"!

POLL: Support For Marriage Equality Holds Steady In Post-Obergefell Era

Now that marriage equality is the law of the land everywhere in the United States thanks to the U.S. Supreme Court ruling in Obergefell v. Hodges on June 26, activists and pundits have been waiting to see what impact this fact would have on public opinion. One poll released earlier this month from the Associated Presss showed a decided decrease in support for marriage equality (of 6 points), but the well-respected Gallup organization is out with its new poll, which it released with the headline "U.S. Support for Gay Marriage Stable After High Court Ruling."

Though the Supreme Court's decision has not immediately influenced Americans' overall opinion on the issue of same-sex marriage, this is not to suggest it will not affect opinion in the long run. 

Even after a 1967 Supreme Court decision that legalized interracial marriages, Gallup's polling in 1968 found that only one in five Americans (20%) approved of such marriages. It took three more decades to reach a majority of support. 

The path to legality of interracial marriage differed from same-sex marriage, though, in that the Supreme Court led public opinion bylegalizing something that Americans largely disapproved of at the time. Approval of same-sex marriage, however, has ascended significantly faster, and has enjoyed majority support for a few years before the court's decision. Still, a long view of the trend on gay marriage illustrates that support for it was steady and incremental, and that the movement's big victories in statewide ballot initiatives and legislature-enacted laws had limited effect on public opinion at large.

I really do not understand how one person's civil marriage affects someone else's. Hopefully even Republican Presidential candidates will figure that out eventually!

POLL: Americans See Michael Brown Shooting Very Differently By Race and Party

Not TOO surprisingly there are stark racial differences in how Americans of different racial backgrounds view the shooting of Michael Brown, a poll by Huffington Post reveals.

As YouGov puts it:

There is a massive racial divide between white and black Americans about whether Darren Wilson should face punishment for killing Michael Brown. While only 22% of whites say that wilson was at fault and should be punished, just under two-thirds (64%) of black Americans want the officer to be punished. 30% of whites, and 11% of blacks, say that the shooting was a tragic accident. 29% of whites say that officer Wilson was fully justified in shooting Brown, something only 4% of black Americans agree with.

Views of the Ferguson incident are not only bifurcated by racial identity but also by party identification:

Democrats were also three times more likely than Republicans to say Wilson was at fault, and to fear that he would be punished too leniently. 

Perhaps the biggest divide, however, was on whether the shooting represented an isolated incident or part of a broader pattern in how black men are treated by the police. While Americans overall were split, 74 percent of black Americans and 57 percent of Democrats, compared with 31 percent of whites and 18 percent of Republicans, saw the shooting as part of a larger pattern.

Despite this being an incident that involves a white cop and  a Black victim I would be interested in seeing data about how other racial groups (especially Latino and Asians) view the Michael Brown situation. Race in America is far more complicated than just Black and white.

POLL: Americans Closely Divided On Homosexuality's Origin

Gallup has a recent poll (May 8-11, 2014) on attitudes of Americans towards certain social issues and the question of the origin of homosexuality continues to be a tight affair, with 42% saying it is innate and 37% saying it is environmental. The question's answer has important public policy implications because people who believe homosexuality is innate are vastly more likely to support LGBT equality. Since 1973, the question of whether homosexuality is a mental illness has been a settled one.

The contention on this question of a person's sexual orientation possibly reflects a lack of input from the scientific community, which historically has not shied away from offering its opinion on lesbian, gay, bisexual, or transgender (LGBT) issues and questions. The American Psychiatric Association removed homosexuality from its manual of mental disorders in 1973, giving credence to the nascent gay rights movement at the time. 

U.S. public opinion about gays has changed drastically in recent decades on the issues of marriage equalityand LGBT acceptance as a whole, possibly related to the fact that three in four Americans say they have a friend, relative, or coworker who has told them that he or she is gay. Though being gay as the result of genetics or other factors before birth has become a considerably more mainstream belief and is now mentioned by a plurality of Americans, it is still one held by slightly less than half of the U.S. population. This disagreement seems likely to continue as long as the scientific community remains agnostic about the question.

 What do you think? Why are Americans still divided on this question when they have clearly made up their mind in support of marriage equality and LGBT equality overall?

POLL: National Suport for Marriage Equality Now At 55%

The most recent Gallup poll indicates that support for marriage equality among the American people is at an all-time high of 55% nationwide. That is up 1 percentage point from last year's previous high water mark of 54%.

While recognizing the recent victories in Oregon and Pennsylvania, Gallup notes that there is still a majority against marriage equality among those who live in the Southern U.S.:

An important region on the radar of gay marriage advocates is the South, where a condensed cluster of bans on same-sex marriage exists. All southern states have constitutional bans on same-sex marriage, from Louisiana in 2004 through North Carolina in 2012, though bans have been challenged in Arkansas and Kentucky. The South (48%) is the only region where same-sex marriage support falls below the 50% mark. Support is highest in the East, where two-thirds (67%) of residents support gay marriage. 

For proponents of marriage equality, years of playing offense have finally paid off as this movement has reached a tipping point in recent years -- both legally and in the court of public opinion. The latest gains are in Pennsylvania and Oregon, with court challenges in Utah, Oklahoma, and Virginia likely to be determined soon. Having spent years trying to influence state lawmakers to take action, gay marriage supporters' game strategy has officially pivoted to challenging state bans in court. One key question in the legal battle is the constitutionality of voter-approved state bans. 

Younger Americans are more supportive of same-sex marriage, and this will likely continue to drive overall support at the gradual pace it has increased over recent years. While the map of gay marriage is regionally diverse, it is not so in the South, where traditional marriage advocates still hold a majority of support. Public opinion in southern states will be a barometer to observe, as the bulk of future legal battles will play out there in the months and years to come.

Hat/tip to Joe.My.God 

GODLESS WEDNESDAY: Poll Says Religion Trumps Science For Most Americans

Ugh, chalk up another reason why I am a godless heathen: I believe in science, not mysticism. These results from a recent AP poll on the science literacy of Americans is simply embarrassing:

To the public "most often values and beliefs trump science" when they conflict, said Alan Leshner, chief executive of the world's largest scientific society, the American Association for the Advancement of Science. 

[...] 

Political values were closely tied to views on science in the poll, with Democrats more apt than Republicans to express confidence in evolution, the Big Bang, the age of the Earth and climate change. 

Religious values are similarly important. 

Confidence in evolution, the Big Bang, the age of the Earth and climate change decline sharply as faith in a supreme being rises, according to the poll. Likewise, those who regularly attend religious services or are evangelical Christians express much greater doubts about scientific concepts they may see as contradictory to their faith. 

"When you are putting up facts against faith, facts can't argue against faith," said 2012 Nobel Prize winning biochemistry professor Robert Lefkowitz of Duke University. "It makes sense now that science would have made no headway because faith is untestable."

The key phrase in that excerpt for me is "Confidence in evolution, the Big Bang, the age of the Earth and climate change decline sharply as faith in a supreme being rises." That is basically all I need to know to put my faith in a supreme being at zero.

WATCH: New Ad Featuring Mormon Couple Promotes Marriage Equality In Utah

The Utah Unites campaign is starting to air the ad shown above in the Beehive state as part of the campaign to win marriage equality in one of the most conservative states in the country and one in which tthe state's ban on marriage equality has been struck down by a federal judge.

The 10th U.S. Circuit will hear oral arguments in the state's appeal of Kitchen v. Herbert tomorrow.

POLL ANALYSIS: Support For Marriage Equality Is Accelerating!

Andrew Flores of the Williams Institute has a piece of the Monkey cage blog that analyzes the latest polls on marriage equality and makes a compelling argument that support for marriage equality is increasing at an increasing rate. (For you Calculus fans, we say that the graph of public support for marriage equality is "concave up"). The key point he makes is that since the Supreme Court issued its two marriage equality decisions (United States v. Windsor striking down the Defense of Marriage Act and Hollingsworth v. Perry effectively nullifying California's Proposition 8) in June 2013 (a date I like to call Gaytterdämmerung) popular support for marriage equality has ratcheted upwards at an accelerating pace.

The graphs below compare  the polling trends using a linear model or a polynomial model. It turns out that a polynomial model fits the polling data pre-Windsor and post-Windsor better than the linear model does for either time period..

This is a direct refutation of the idea that Kevin Drum posited recently that popular opinion on marriage equality has evolved about as rapidly as it did on interracial marriage. It also challenges an idea that Nate Silver promoted awhile back that the shift was due to opponents dying off and being replaced by a younger cohort which is overwhelmingly in support of marriage equality, leading him to predict an increase in support of roughly .5 percentage points per year in national polls.

Having a good estimate of the rate of increase in support for marriage equality is important, because as Flores says:

This has important implications for where public opinion is headed. If the stable linear trend were the right one, then by 2016 just over 56 percent of the public would be expected to support same-sex marriage. However, the accelerated trend predicts that support for same-sex marriage will be about 5 points higher by 2016. It is appropriate to infer that opinions are trending positively and changing exponentially as time goes on.

Regardless how you slice it, this is "good for the gays"!

(However, as a mathematician I truly wish that he hadn't used the word "exponentially" in that last sentence. There's a huge difference between polynomial growth and exponential growth. I think he meant the former when he said the latter. Regardless, it is still a good piece that I encourage you to read in full!)