GODLESS WEDNESDAY: Hallelujah! U.S. Church Membership Rate Fall Below 50%

Godless Wednesday makes a rare return to the blog with the amazing news that membership in houses of worship (churches, synagogues, mosques, etc) has fallen below 50% (to 47%) for the first time ever that Gallup has been measuring it. As recently as 1999 (when The Matrix came out) the worship rate was 70%. Gallup says:

The decline in church membership is primarily a function of the increasing number of Americans who express no religious preference. Over the past two decades, the percentage of Americans who do not identify with any religion has grown from 8% in 1998-2000 to 13% in 2008-2010 and 21% over the past three years.

As would be expected, Americans without a religious preference are highly unlikely to belong to a church, synagogue or mosque, although a small proportion -- 4% in the 2018-2020 data -- say they do. That figure is down from 10% between 1998 and 2000.

Given the nearly perfect alignment between not having a religious preference and not belonging to a church, the 13-percentage-point increase in no religious affiliation since 1998-2000 appears to account for more than half of the 20-point decline in church membership over the same time.

This is excellent news because the decrease in religiosity of Americans will hopefully lead to an increase in fact-based, evidence-based decision-making and public policies. (One can dream!)

BOOK REVIEW: White Fragility by Robin DiAngelo

White Fragility is a short but affecting read; it is revelatory, informative and inspirational. The author provides insight into the myriad ways that white people respond to discussions about race and white supremacy. This excerpt (from page 2) basically encapsulates the primary thesis of the book: Socialized into a deeply internalized sense of superiority that we are unaware of or can never admit to ourselves, we become highly fragile in conversations about race. We consider a challenge to our racial worldviews as a challenge to our very identities as good, moral people. Thus, we perceive any attempt to connect us to the system of racism as unsettling and unfair moral offense. The smallest amount of racial stress is intolerable--the mere suggestion that being white has meaning often triggers a range of defensive responses. These include emotions such as anger, fear, and guilt and behaviors such as withdrawal from the stress-inducing situation. These responses work to reinstate white equilibrium as they repel the challenge, return our racial comfort, and maintain our dominance within the racial hierarchy. I conceptualize this process as white fragility. The author Robin Diangelo uses the words "we" and "ours" in this quote and throughout the book to be explicit and forthright about her positionality as a white woman discussing racism. I imagine White Fragility would be very difficult for white people to read this book without experiencing some of the reactions that the author describes above. In fact, the author recognizes this and spends a significant amount of time in the book speaking directly to white readers of the text, to attempt to modulate and potentially forestall these reactions. I have to imagine how white readers will respond to reading about the ubiquity and resilience of white supremacy because I am not a white person.  Despite this fact, the experience of reading White Fragility as a non-white person is an exciting experience. My primary feeling was one of admiration (at the thoughtfulness and precision of the language of the book and the cogent and contemporaneous nature of the ideas included) and amazement (at the sheer number of "secrets" revealed and taboos broken about discussing race, anti-blackness and white supremacy). While it is well under 200 pages, White Fragility provides numerous resources for facilitating the process of getting white people to talk about racism, such as the pages of footnotes at the end of the book providing evidence for claims made in the text, as well as "Books, Articles and Blogs" for the reader to continue their education on the subject(s) of race, racism and white supremacy. Additionally, there are very useful lists included in the book which distill and highlight some of the key concepts. An example is this list of the functions of white fragility (found on page 122): Maintain white solidarity Close off self-reflection Trivialize the reality of racism Make white people the victims Hijack the conversation Protect a limited worldview Take race off the table Focus on the messenger, not the message Rally more resources to white people Another strong aspect of the book are the particular chapters devoted to "White Women's Tears," "Anti-Blackness," and "The Good/Bad Binary." Overall, White Fragility is a tour de force explication of why it is so difficult to have conversations about racism and (therefore begin) the process of dismantling white supremacy. In the end, I found the book somewhat depressing because it makes the prospect for improved race relations in the United States appear to be unlikely by analyzing and enumerating what would be entailed in producing such a future. With that said, the problem is not with the book, which does a great service to us all by illuminating and elucidating ideas and actions about race and white supremacy, but with us, the reader(s). RATING: FIVE STARS.

Title: White Fragility: Why It's So Hard For White People To Talk About Racism.
Author: Robin Diangelo.
Paperback: 462 pages.
Publisher: Tor Books.
Date Published: March 26, 2019.
Date Read: July 27, 2019.

GOODREADS RATING: ★★★★½☆  (4.5/5.0).

OVERALL GRADE: A- (3.67/4.0).

PLOT: A-.
IMAGERY: A-.
IMPACT: B+.
WRITING: A.

WATCH: Ta-Nehisi Coates' Opening Statement in Reparations Congressional Hearing

GODLESS WEDNESDAY: "Nones" Become Largest Religious Group In The United States

Woo hoo! Fear not godless heathens, you are not alone! The Friendly Atheist reports on the latest polling data from the General Social Survey on religion that shows that the percentage of Americans who say that have "no religion" (often called the "Nones" by demographers) is now the largest segment of the population.

Religious News Service reports (and includes the graphic at the top of this post):

According to newly released General Social Survey data analyzed by Ryan P. Burge of Eastern Illinois University, Americans claiming “no religion” — sometimes referred to as “nones” because of how they answer the question “what is your religious tradition?” — now represent about 23.1 percent of the population, up from 21.6 percent in 2016. People claiming evangelicalism, by contrast, now represent 22.5 percent of Americans, a slight dip from 23.9 percent in 2016.  

That makes the two groups statistically tied with Catholics (23 percent) as the largest religious — or nonreligious — groupings in the country.   

“Nones have been on the march for a long time now,” Burge said. “It’s been a constant, steady increase for 20 years now. If the trend line kept up, we knew this was going to happen.”

So when will public policy (and politics) start recognizing this fact that the populace (and electorate) is changing?

Hat/tip to Friendly Atheist

Federal LGBT Civil Rights Bill #EqualityAct Introduced In U.S. House

There are 28 states where it is perfectly legal to fire someone for being a member of the lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender (LGBT) community today. Most American believe that LGBT citizens should have (and already have) equal civil rights in the United States.

On March 13, the Equality Act, a comprehensive federal LGBT civil rights bill was introduced into the Congress with one House almost certain to pass it due to the fact Democrats have a majority in the House of Representatives.

The Williams Institute at UCLA Law School did an analysis of the state of cvil rights for LGBT Americans and published a report summarizing its findings. Key among these, are:

• An estimated 8.1 million LGBT workers age 16 and older live in the United States. About half of these workers—4.1 million people—live in states without statutory protections against sexual orientation and gender identity discrimination in employment.
• There are over 3.5 million LGBT students age 15 and older in the U.S. About 2.1 million live in states without statutory protections against sexual orientation and gender identity discrimination in education.
• There are an estimated 13 million LGBT people age 13 and older in the U.S. Approximately 6.9 million live in states that do not statutorily prohibit sexual orientation and gender identity discrimination in public accommodations. 
• There are an estimated 11 million LGBT adults in the U.S. Over 5.6 million live in states without statutory protections against sexual orientation and gender identity discrimination in housing and 8 million lack such protections in credit.

Hat/tip to Williams Institute

REPORT: 4.5% of U.S. Adult Population is LGBT, 11+ Million People

The Williams Institute at UCLA Law School, an LGBT public policy think tank, has released their latest estimate of the percentage of the size of the LGBT population in the United States. The number is 11.3 million, or 4.5% of U.S. adults identify as lesbian, gay, bisexual or transgender.

Hat/tip Williams Institute

GODLESS WEDNESDAY: Supreme Court Hears Oral Arguments Today in Church-State Separation Case

Today the United States Supreme Court is hearing oral arguments in an important case involving the separation of church and state. The case is The American Legion v. American Humanist Association and involves a 93-year-old World War 1 memorial called the Bladensburg Peace Cross erected on public lands and maintained using public funds in Bladensburg, Maryland.

The questions before the Court are:

(1) Whether a 93-year-old memorial to the fallen of World War I is unconstitutional merely because it is shaped like a cross; (2) whether the constitutionality of a passive display incorporating religious symbolism should be assessed under the tests articulated in Lemon v. Kurtzman, Van Orden v. Perry, Town of Greece v. Galloway or some other test; and (3) whether, if the test from Lemon v. Kurtzman applies, the expenditure of funds for the routine upkeep and maintenance of a cross-shaped war memorial, without more, amounts to an excessive entanglement with religion in violation of the First Amendment.

NPR's Nina Totenberg claims that the Court is expected to reverse the 4th Circuit's holding that the monument has the "primary effect of endorsing religion and excessively entangles the government in religion." The real question is how far will the Court's conservative majority go in dismantling the wall between church and state in this case?

Hat/tip to SCOTUSblog

GODLESS WEDNESDAY: Poll Says Atheism Is No Longer An Impediment To Elected Office

Previously I have blogged (repeatedly) about Americans uneasiness with voting for an atheist for president. However, a new survey from the American Humanist shows that progressive voters (who are pro-marriage equality and pro-choice) are happy to support an agnostic or atheist candidate for elected office.

The survey finds that 72% of liberal Democrats would vote for an atheist on the ballot. 74% of them would support a more generic “non-religious” or “agnostic” candidate.
Also interesting? 14% of those voters said they would be more likely to support an atheist while only 7% say the opposite.

Hat/tip to Friendly Atheist.

2018 CHESS: Carlsen Retains Title By Defeating Caruana In Playoff (After 12 Draws In Standard Play)

World champion Magnus Carlsen will retain his title for another two years after defeating Fabiano Caruana 3-0 in the 2018 World Chess Championship playoffs. After twelve consecutive draws in standard play of 40 moves in 150 minutes Carlsen and Caruana were scheduled to play four games of rapid (25 minutes for each side for the entire game) with the first to 2.5 points to win the title. Carlsen swept the first three games, illustrating his dominance in quicker speed games and cementing his status as the best chess player in the world (again).

Here are the three decisive matches:

Game 1

Game 2   
Game 3   
Congrats, Magnus!

2018 World Chess Championship: Carlsen versus Caruana (London, November 9-28)

The 2018 World Chess championship is being held in London starting today and should last until November 28th or so. It is between the defending world champion 27-year-old Magnus Carlsen of Norway, and 26-year-old Fabiano Caruana of the United States. Carlsen has been the World #1 ranked chess player since 2010, and first won the World Championship by defeating Viswanathan Anand in 2013 at the age of 22.

However, Caruana is the first American player to challenge for the World Chess champion title since Bobby Fischer in 1972. This is a *big* deal and he is the real deal. I didn't know much about him but this article informed me of his bona fides.

Carlsen-Caruana is the matchup that the chess world was hoping for. It’s world No. 1 versus world No. 2—the first World Championship match between the top two since Garry Kasparov and Anatoly Karpov went at it for the fifth and final time in 1990. Caruana only sits three Elo rating points behind Carlsen at 2832 to 2835, both the highest combined rating and the smallest ratings difference in World Championship history. If Caruana wins the match within the 12 classical games, he’ll not only take the title but also the world No. 1 spot that Carlsen has held continuously since July 2011—about which Magnus has said, “I would like to give you some boring, politically correct answer, but the truth is, yeah, it does bother me!”

This should be awesome!

POLL: More Oppose Kavanaugh #SCOTUS Nomination Than Support It

Brett Kavanaugh, Donald Trump's choice to replace Anthony Kennedy on the United States Supreme Court now has the dubious distinction to become the first high court nominee  in modern history to have more people expressing opposition to his elevation than support it.

NBC News reports:

In the poll — which was conducted Sunday (when the accusation from Christine Blasey Ford was first made public) through Wednesday — 38 percent of voters say they oppose Kavanaugh’s nomination to serve on the nation’s highest court, including 27 percent who “strongly” oppose him. 

That’s compared with 34 percent who support his nomination, including 25 percent who “strongly” support him. Twenty-eight percent say they don’t enough to have an opinion.

The support for Kavanaugh has gotten worse over time.

The next Supreme Court term begins October 1.

GRAPHIC: Demographics of Immigrant Fraction Of United States Has Varied Over Time

This is an interesting graphic which shows the demographics of the non-native population of the United States has varied over time. Axios summarizes the changes over time thusly:

• For most of the 19th and 20th centuries, the vast majority of immigrants came from Western and Northern Europe. The Irish fled famine, the Germans fled political instability, and Italians primarily wanted better economic opportunity.
• The 1965 act ended a program that allowed Mexicans to work on U.S. farms but remain residents of Mexico. That changed the nature of immigration from Mexico and from Central America "to primarily unauthorized," Batalova says.
• In 1986, the U.S. gave legal status to almost 3 million undocumented immigrants — an overwhelming majority of them from Mexico. These new green card holders could then sponsor additional family members.
• There has been a surge of Central American asylum seekers in the U.S. over the past several years as political chaos, poverty and violence have ravaged many of those nations.
• New laws also opened the door to immigration from Asia — initially from India and Taiwan, and later China.
• Following the Vietnam War, there was an influx of Vietnamese people and other citizens of the region who fled to the U.S. as refugees.
• Most recently, there's been a wave of immigration from African countries that began in the 1990s and 2000s for a wide variety of economic, political and humanitarian reasons.

hat/tip: Axios

NEWS: United States Places First In International Mathematics Olympiad

The U.S. team won first place at the 59th International Mathematical Olympiad (IMO), which took place in Cluj-Napoca, Romania on July 3-14, with 116 countries and 615 students participating. The USA Mathematical Olympiad Team cosisted of: Adam Ardeishar, Andrew Gu, Vincent Huang, James Lin, Michael Ren, and Mihir Singhal.  Individually they also took home five gold medals (Lin scored a perfect 42) and one silver medal. Gu, Huang, and Lin are returning IMO team members from 2017. Teams from Russia and China placed second and third, respectively

Hat/tip to American Mathematics Society and Mathematical Association of America.

SUNDAY POLITICS: Comparing Presidential Approval Rating Variability

Hat/tip Political Wire

2018 FRENCH OPEN: Women's Final Preview (and Semifinals Review)

Simona Halep (ROU) [1] vs Sloane Stephens (USA) [10]

Here is my predictions post for the women's final at the 2018 French Open. Last year I incorrectly predicted that Simona Halep would defeat Jelena Ostapenko. This year I correctly predicted 4 of 4 women's quarterfinals, 2 of 2 women's semifinals, 2 of 2 men's semifinals and 3 of 4 men's quarterfinals.

WOMEN'S SEMIFINALS REVIEW

Simona Halep (ROU) [1] d. Garbiñe Muguruza (ESP) [3] 6-1 6-4.  This was expected to be a tough 3-setter but the World #1 ran away with the first set, doing to Muguruza what she did to Sharapova in her quarterfinal match. The second set was far more competitive, with Muguruza earning an early break but then was unable to maintain the advantage to the end of the set and was broken in the 8th game. The key turning point of the match was the epic 9th game with Halep serving. Muguruza had multiple breakpoints but was unable to convert, despite the fact Halep was missing more than two-thirds of her first serves. However eventually (after 13 minutes) she was able to hold and serving to stay in the match Muguruza faded quickly, succumbing to a love break to lose the set and the match.

Sloane Stephens (USA) [10] d. Madison Keys (USA) [13] 6-4 6-4. This was a closer match than their match at the 2017 US Open final, because this time Madison could actually control some of her emotions and was able to show the hard-hitting tennis that makes her one of the most feared opponents on the WTA tour. But her good friend Sloane, who is just two years older (25 instead of 23) appears to be more than 2 year more mature than Madison and this shows in how they treat big matches. Sloane has only lost 1 set in her 6 tour finals she has appeared in, while Madison has only won 3 titles. Despite all that the match score line ended up being relatively close, even if the result of the match never felt much in doubt primarily due to the lack of unforced errors coming off the Sloane racquet compared to the large number Madison was hitting.


WOMEN'S FINAL PREVIEW
For the second time in the last three major tournaments both of these players will be appearing in their secod major final. Sloane at  the 2017 US Open while Halep's was at the 2018 Australian Open. (Halep is also appearing in her 3rd Roland-Garros final). Sloane is definitely the mentally tougher of the two, sporting a perfect 6-0 in WTA tour finals while Halep has a less than stellar 16-14 record in finals. However the two have played 7 times before and Halep leads 5-2. Interestingly, most pundits seem to be giving Stephens the edge in this match up but I'm not so sure. I'll be happy with either player winning, but I think I would be happier if Halep were to finally get that inaugural slam win and cement her standing at the top of the women's game. After all, if she loses her first four major finals that may start reducing the belief that she will actually win one of these eventually. Last year Halep was the prohibitive favorite against Jelena Ostapenko and played like it for a set and a half but when thing started to get tight Halep crumbled and lost after being up a set and a break ahead. I do believe she has learned from these experiences and the fact that Sloane is a known quantity should assist Halep in treating this like a regular tour match, in which case she would win easily. The problem is that it's not just a tour match and as the end of the match approaches I think Halep will have even more difficulty handling the pressure. However, with all that being said, I still give her the edge to (finally) win her first major title. PREDICTION: Halep. 

GRAPHIC: Per Capita Spending on Education in the United States

Education Week released its analysis of per capita spending on education by the various states in the Union. The national average is $12,526 but Utah spend $7,207 per student while Vermont ($20,795) and Alaska ($20,640) are at the very top. At this link you can mouse over the map and see how your state compares.

California is at $9,417.

Hat/tip to Education Week.

POLL: Support for marriage equality now 67% Yes 33% No

I'm still on vacation in Iceland but could not resist posting the information that public support for marriage equality has now been completely inverted in the last two decades, from 2:1 opposition to 2:1 support! I have been working for and involved with the freedom to marry movement since the early 1990s so this result is quite heartwarming.

Hat/tip USA TODAY

#NSF REPORT: U.S. Doctorate Recipients At Near All-Time High (2016 Data)

The National Science Foundation has released its annual Survey of Earned Doctorates and there are some interesting nuggets in the data (up to 2016):

• The largest share of doctorates awarded in 2016 was in the life sciences (nearly 23 percent), followed by engineering (17 percent), and psychology and the social sciences (16.5 percent). All fields of humanities and arts made up 10 percent of doctorates awarded.
• The time between students entering graduate school and receiving doctorates has fallen in all fields of study over the past 20 years, but, on average, it still takes years longer to earn a doctorate in non-S&E fields than in S&E fields.
• The number of S&E doctorates awarded to U.S. citizens and permanent residents grew 2 percent since 2015 and 39 percent since 2006. The number of doctorates in S&E fields awarded to temporary visa holders grew 2 percent since 2015 and 20 percent since 2006.
• The number of doctoral awards to temporary visa holders is highly concentrated -- 10 countries accounted for 71 percent of the doctorates awarded to temporary visa holders from 2006 to 2016. The top three countries -- China, India and South Korea -- accounted for 54 percent of the doctorates awarded to temporary visa holders.
• Women have earned a slight majority of all doctorates awarded to U.S. citizen and permanent residents each year since 2002, and women have earned more than 30 percent of all doctorates awarded to temporary visa holders over that period.
• From 1996 to 2016, the number of women earning degrees in S&E fields increased by 84 percent.
• The number of doctorates awarded to blacks or African Americans who are U.S. citizens or permanent residents increased by 32 percent from 2006 to 2016. For the same period, the proportion of doctorates earned by Hispanics or Latinos increased by 67 percent.

One key take-away for me is that 1) Latino doctoral recipients now outnumber African-American and that the gap between male and female STEM doctorates is actually slightly widening, even as both numbers increase (see the graphics at the top of this page).

Hat/tip STEMPROF newsletter edited by Mark Connolly.

TENNIS TUESDAY: Rafa Breaks More Records; Fed Cup Final Set; Babies Everywhere

NADAL WINS RECORD 11TH MONTE CARLO MASTERS ; 31ST MASTERS OVERALL
The King of Clay, Rafael Nadal won his 11th Monte Carlo Masters title (in 14 years) by defeating Kei Nishikori 6-3 6-2. Nadal won the title without dropping  a set and basially terrorized the rest of the men's field with his 6-0 6-2 drubbing of the "Prince of Clay" Dominic Thiem in the quarterfinals.
Nadal was able to retain his hold on the World #1 ranking by defending his title as World #2 Roger Federer is again sipping the clay court season to improve his chances at winning another Wimbledon title. Nadal nw has 31 ATP Masters shields, 1 ahead of the 30 Novak jokovic has and well ahead of Federer's 27, with two more clay court Masters tournaments to be played this year: Madrid and Rome.

FED CUP FINAL SET: UNITED STATES WILL FACE CZECHIA
The Fed Cup semifinals were last weekend and the United States defeated France 3-2 behind solid wins by Sloane Stephens and Madison Keys while the Czech Republic dominated Germany 4-1 with Petra Kvitova and Karolina Pliskova each eating Angie Kerber and Julia Goerges. The Czech Republic has been in the Fed Cup final.

BABIES, BABIES, BABIES! SPRING IS HERE AND EVERYBODY'S PREGNANT
John Isner announced that his wife Madison McKinley is expecting their first child. Also, Sania Mirza announced on instagram that she was pregnant, and noted tennis umpire Eve Asderaki answered Dasha Kasatkina's question "boy or girl?" while umpiring a Fed Cup match this weekend with "boy."

WARNING: Russian Teams Dominate Collegiate Prestigious International Programming Contest Standings

Things that make you go hmmmm! The ICPC 2018 (ACM International Collegiate Programming Contest) was just held last week and the results could be ominous for future technological success by the United States.

The top 2 places were taken by two teams from Russia: Moscow State University (#1) and Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology (#2). Teams from China, Japan and South Korea rounded out the rest of the top 5. The highest an American team placed was #10 (University of Central Florida), which just edged out #11, which was from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).

Of the 13 teams in the top tier, 4 were from Russia and 3 were from China.

Jus' saying...