Today is #ElectionDay! Clinton 0.716, Trump 0.284

Today is (finally!) election day in America. The final 538.com election prediction has a 71.6% chance of winning for Clinton-Kaine and a 28.4% chance of winning for Trump-Pence. This is slightly up from previous days in the last week, when 3 days ago Trump's chances of becoming president were just above 35%. All will be revealed tonight!

1 Day Until #ElectionDay: Clinton 0.658, Trump 0.342

Tomorrow is Election Day! With 1 day of the 2016 presidential race remaining, Clinton-Kaine have a 65.8% chance of winning, while Trump-Pence have a 34.2% chance of success, according to 538.com.

2 Days Until #ElectionDay: Clinton 0.649, Trump 0.35

Today's snapshot of the 538.com probability of who will win the election on Tuesday November 8th is being posted late because I travelled from Los Angeles to Washington, D.C. The current numbers are Clinton-Kaine 64.9% and Trump-Pence 35%, which are essentially unchanged from yesterday but very different from what they were 2 weeks ago.

3 Days Until #ElectionDay : Clinton 0.647, Trump 0.352

4 Days Until #ElectionDay: Clinton 0.684, Trump 0.315

Source: FiveThirtyEight.com

5 Days Until #ElectionDay: Clinton 0.669, Trump 0.331

Source: FiveThirtyeight.com

6 Days Until #ElectionDay: Clinton 0.707, Trump 0.292

Source: FiveThrtyEight.com

1 Week Until #ElectionDay: Clinton 0.738, Trump 0.262

The 2016 presidential election is just one week (7 days!) away. The 538.com forecast shows a significant movement towards the Trump-Pence ticket from last week's numbers. Right now, Clinton-Kaine has a 73.8% chance of winning the presidency, while Trump-Pence is 26.2% (which is up from last week's 13.8%).

2 Weeks Until #ElectionDay: Clinton 0.861, Trump 0.138

There are only 2 weeks left (14 days!) before the 2016 Presidential Election will be determined on November 8. This week, the 538.com forecast has Clinton-Kaine ticket has an 86.1% chance of winning, with Trump-Pence having a 13.8% chance of winning. This is slightly changed from last week's probabilities (88.2% Clinton-Trump, 11.8% Trump-Pence).

3 Weeks Until #ElectionDay: Clinton 0.882, Trump 0.118

The probabilities in the 2016 presidential race have moved sharply in favor of the Clinton-Kaine ticket in the last week. With just 21 days (3 weeks) before election day, the latest numbers from FiveThirtyEight.com show a 0.882 probability America will elect its first female president, with just a 0.112 chance Donald Trump will win his first elected office on November 8th. Last week, the probabilities were 0.84 Clinton, 0.16 Trump. Since i began blogging about the data, the probabilities have been as close as Clinton 0.546, Trump 0.454 just 3 weeks ago so the numbers can change rather rapidly. 

Will they change again? We'll know more in 21 days!

4 Weeks Until #ElectionDay: Clinton 0.84, Trump 0.16

Election Day is now exactly 4 weeks (28 days!) away. FiveThirtyEight's election prediction model says that Hillary Clinton has a probability of  0.84 of becoming president, while Donald J. Trump has a 0.16 probability of winning the 2016 presidential election. This is a significant change from last week, when their relative chances were 0.718 for Clinton-Kaine and 0.282 for Trump-Pence.

5 Weeks Until #ElectionDay: Clinton 0.718, Trump 0.282

There are now 5 weeks (35 days) until November 8, 2016, election day. The FiveThirtyEight election forecast  now says the probability that Hillary Clinton will be elected president is now 0.718 (Donald Trump's chance of winning is now 0.282). This is a dramatic jump from last week, where the probability was 0.546 Clinton, 0.454 Trump. That shows the volatility in the prediction, although it must of course be noted that in between now and then, the most watched presidential debate in historym occurred, with more than 84 million people viewing the debate on Monday September 26.

The Vice-Presidential debate is tomorrow night. Can it possibly have as large an effect on the probabilities? The second Presidential debate is next Sunday, October 9th.

6 Weeks Until #ElectionDay: Clinton 0.546, Trump 0.454

I've been busy all day so I didn't get to post the latest prediction by FiveThirtyEight.com about the candidates' relative chances to be president with 42 days remaining (6 weeks) before election day. Hillary Clinton has a probability of 0.546 while Donald Trump has a probability  of 0.454. Last week, Clinton had a probability of 0.589 while Trump had a probability of 0.411.

7 Weeks Until #ElectionDay: Clinton 0.589, Trump 0.411

There are 7 weeks (49 days) until election day, November 8 2016. FiveThirtyEight.com's forecasting model of the 2016 presidential election gives Hillary Clinton approximately a 59% chance of winning, compared to Donald Trump's 41%. Last week, these numbers were 0.682 (Clinton) and 0.318 (Trump).

8 Weeks Until Election Day: Clinton 0.682, Trump 0.318

It's that time again! 56 days from today (8 weeks) we will learn who will be the 45th President of the United Status as Americans in every state go to the polls on November 8. My current employment status as a federal employee does not allow me to comment publicly on partisan races but it doesn't preclude me from sharing information. I did this last time in the Obama-Romney election as well, but I started much earlier and used the Talking Points Memo Electoral College Scoreboard.

Periodically for the next eight weeks I will post election forecasts, probably from Nate Silver's fivethirtyeight.com. Instead of posting estimated electoral vote tallies, Five Thirty Eight comes up with a probability (i.e. a number between 0 and 1) of who will win the presidential race if it were held right now. That is the information I will post regularly here. Enjoy the next 8 weeks!