2020 OSCARS: My Predictions in the Top 8 Categories

Here is my annual prediction post for the 2020 Oscars, i.e. the 92nd Academy Awards. I really just consider the Top 8 categories on the blog but I play the Oscar prediction game like lots of other people (on other websites) where I think about all 24 categories. Last year I predicted 4 of 8 categories correctly and 12 of 24 overall. This year I have only seen a few of the nominated pictures.

Best Picture:

• “Ford v Ferrari” 
• “The Irishman” 
• “Jojo Rabbit” 
• “Joker” 
• “Little Women” 
• “Marriage Story” 
• “1917” 
• “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” 
• “Parasite” 

SHOULD WIN: Parasite.
WILL WIN: 1917.

Director:

• Martin Scorsese (“The Irishman”)
• Todd Phillips (“Joker”)
• Sam Mendes (“1917”)
• Quentin Tarantino (“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”)
• Bong Joon Ho (“Parasite”)

SHOULD WIN: Bong Joon Ho, Parasite.

WILL WIN: Sam Mendes, 1917.

Lead Actor:

• Antonio Banderas (“Pain and Glory”)
• Leonardo DiCaprio (“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”)
• Adam Driver (“Marriage Story”)
• Joaquin Phoenix (“Joker”)
• Jonathan Pryce (“The Two Popes”)

SHOULD WIN: Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory (Dolor y Gloria).

WILL WIN: Joaquin Phoenix, Joker.

Lead Actress:

• Cynthia Erivo (“Harriet”)
• Scarlett Johansson (“Marriage Story”)
• Saoirse Ronan (“Little Women”)
• Charlize Theron (“Bombshell”)
• Renee Zellweger (“Judy”)

SHOULD WIN: Renee Zellwegger, Judy.

WILL WIN: Renee Zellwegger, Judy.

Supporting Actor:

• Tom Hanks (“A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood”)
• Anthony Hopkins (“The Two Popes”)
• Al Pacino (“The Irishman”)
• Joe Pesci (“The Irishman”)
• Brad Pitt (“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”)

SHOULD WIN: Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.

WILL WIN: Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.

Supporting Actress:

• Kathy Bates, “Richard Jewell”
• Laura Dern (“Marriage Story”)
• Scarlett Johansson (“Jojo Rabbit”)
• Florence Pugh (“Little Women”)
• Margot Robbie (“Bombshell”)

SHOULD WIN: Laura Dern, Marriage Story.

WILL WIN: Laura Dern, Marriage Story.

Adapted Screenplay:

• Taika Waititi (“Jojo Rabbit”)
• Steve Zaillian (“The Irishman”)
• Anthony McCarten (“The Two Popes”)
• Greta Gerwig (“Little Women”)
• Todd Phillips and Scott Silver (“Joker”)

SHOULD WIN: Little Women

WILL WIN: Jojo Rabbit.

Original Screenplay:

• Rian Johnson (“Knives Out”)
• Noah Baumbach (“Marriage Story”)
• Sam Mendes and Krysty Wilson-Cairns (“1917”)
• Quentin Tarantino (“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”)
• Bong Joon Ho and Han Jin Won (“Parasite”)

SHOULD WIN: Parasite.

WILL WIN: Parasite.

2018 OSCARS: My Predictions for the Top 8 Categories

Here is my prediction's post for the Top 8 categories in this year's Oscars, the 90th Annual Academy Awards. In blue are the people who I want to win, or who I would vote for (if I had an Oscar ballot) while in red are the people who I think will win. Last year I only predicted 3 of the Top  8 categories correctly (in both of the red and blue votes); Overall I did better, predicting 14 of 24 categories correctly.

Best Picture:

• “Call Me by Your Name”
• “Darkest Hour”
• “Dunkirk”
• “Get Out”
• “Lady Bird”
• “Phantom Thread”
• “The Post”
• “The Shape of Water”
• “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

(The ones in bold are the Best Picture nominees I have seen as of this writing.)

WILL WIN: The Shape of Water.

SHOULD WIN: Get Out.

Director:

• “Dunkirk,” Christopher Nolan
• “Get Out,” Jordan Peele
• “Lady Bird,” Greta Gerwig
• “Phantom Thread,” Paul Thomas Anderson
• “The Shape of Water,” Guillermo del Toro

WILL WIN: The Shape of Water, Guillermo del Toro.

SHOULD WIN: Dunkirk, Christopher Nolan.

Lead Actor:

• Timothée Chalamet, “Call Me by Your Name”
• Daniel Day-Lewis, “Phantom Thread”
• Daniel Kaluuya, “Get Out”
• Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour”
• Denzel Washington, “Roman J. Israel, Esq.”

WILL WIN: Darkest Hour, Gary Oldman.

SHOULD WIN: Call Me By Your Name, Timothée Chalamet.

Lead Actress:

• Sally Hawkins, “The Shape of Water”
• Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
• Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya”
• Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird”
• Meryl Streep, “The Post”

WILL WIN: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Frances McDormand.

SHOULD WIN: Ladybird, Saoirse Ronan.

Supporting Actor:

• Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project”
• Woody Harrelson, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
• Richard Jenkins, “The Shape of Water”
• Christopher Plummer, “All the Money in the World”
• Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

WILL WIN: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Sam Rockwell.

SHOULD WIN: The Shape of Water, Richard Jenkins.

Supporting Actress:

• Mary J. Blige, “Mudbound”
• Allison Janney, “I, Tonya”
• Lesley Manville, “Phantom Thread”
• Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird”
• Octavia Spencer, “The Shape of Water”

WILL WIN: I, Tonya, Allison Janney.

SHOULD WIN: Lady Bird, Laurie Metcalfe.

Adapted Screenplay:

• “Call Me by Your Name,” James Ivory
• “The Disaster Artist,” Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber
• “Logan,” Scott Frank & James Mangold and Michael Green
• “Molly’s Game,” Aaron Sorkin
• “Mudbound,” Virgil Williams and Dee Rees

WILL WIN: Call Me By Your Name, James Ivory.

SHOULD WIN: Call Me By Your Name, James Ivory .

Original Screenplay:

• “The Big Sick,” Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani
• “Get Out,” Jordan Peele
• “Lady Bird,” Greta Gerwig
• “The Shape of Water,” Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor
• “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” Martin McDonagh

WILL WIN: Get Out, Jordan Peele.

SHOULD WIN: The Big Sick, Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani.

2018 OSCARS: Nominations List For Top 8 Categories

Best Picture:

• “Call Me by Your Name”
• “Darkest Hour”
• “Dunkirk”
• “Get Out”
• “Lady Bird”
• “Phantom Thread”
• “The Post”
• “The Shape of Water”
• “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

(The ones in bold are the Best Picture nominees I have seen so far.)

Director:

• “Dunkirk,” Christopher Nolan
• “Get Out,” Jordan Peele
• “Lady Bird,” Greta Gerwig
• “Phantom Thread,” Paul Thomas Anderson
• “The Shape of Water,” Guillermo del Toro

Lead Actor:

• Timothée Chalamet, “Call Me by Your Name”
• Daniel Day-Lewis, “Phantom Thread”
• Daniel Kaluuya, “Get Out”
• Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour”
• Denzel Washington, “Roman J. Israel, Esq.”

Lead Actress:

• Sally Hawkins, “The Shape of Water”
• Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
• Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya”
• Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird”
• Meryl Streep, “The Post”

Supporting Actor:

• Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project”
• Woody Harrelson, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
• Richard Jenkins, “The Shape of Water”
• Christopher Plummer, “All the Money in the World”
• Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Supporting Actress:

• Mary J. Blige, “Mudbound”
• Allison Janney, “I, Tonya”
• Lesley Manville, “Phantom Thread”
• Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird”
• Octavia Spencer, “The Shape of Water”

Adapted Screenplay:

• “Call Me by Your Name,” James Ivory
• “The Disaster Artist,” Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber
• “Logan,” Scott Frank & James Mangold and Michael Green
• “Molly’s Game,” Aaron Sorkin
• “Mudbound,” Virgil Williams and Dee Rees

Original Screenplay:

• “The Big Sick,” Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani
• “Get Out,” Jordan Peele
• “Lady Bird,” Greta Gerwig
• “The Shape of Water,” Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor
• “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” Martin McDonagh