2019 FRENCH OPEN: Nadal Wins 18th Major, Record 12th(!) Roland Garros Title

As I predicted, Rafael Nadal won his 12th Roland Garros title on Sunday, defeating Dominc Thiem for the second year in a row  6-3 5-7 6-1 6-1. The King of Clay is now 93-2 on the clay courts in Paris, having only ever lost to Novak Djokovic (2015) and Robin Soderling (2009).

The win brings Nadal, 33, to 18 major singles title, just 2 behind Roger Federer, 37 and 3 ahead of Djokovic's 15. Djokovic still is the World #1, but Nadal has reached two major finals this year and won one of them. Djokovic has the maximum number of points to defend at Wimbledon and the U.S. Open while Nadal has semifinals points to defend in both (Wimbledon l. Djokovic, US Open l. Juan Martin del Potro). To me there's no question that Nadal is the greatest of all time on clay, but I think the question of who is the greatest tennis player of all time it's still too early too tell, but currently Federer occupies that spot with his astonishing 20 major singles title. Amazingly, Nadal's 12 titles at Roland Garros is more major titles than Rod Laver, John McEnroe, Bjorn Borg, Andre Agassi, Stefan Edberg and many other great players earned in their entire career. Only 4 players, (Don Budge, Pete Sampras, Djokovic and Federer) have won more majors than Nadal has won French Open titles. To me, Nadal's extreme dominance in one area is a counter-argument to his claim to greatness because he has only won3 US Opens, 1 Australian Open and 2 Wimbledons, which are not really "notable achievements" taken together. Regardless, the conversation and arguments will continue until all 3 retire, which hopefully will not be for quite awhile!

2019 FRENCH OPEN: Barty Wins First Major Title, Reaches World #2

As I predicted, #8 seed Ash Barty, 23, defeated Czech lefty Marketa Vondrousova, 19, in the final of the 2019 French Open, 6-1 6-3. Barty's win means that her new ranking will be World #2 on Monday. In fact, she will be less than 200 points behind World #1 Naomi Osaka who has won the two previous majors (2019 Australian Open and 2018 U.S. Open).

In the final, Barty was quickly up a set and a break (6-1, 2-0) and unlike the last two women who were in that situation in the Roland Garros final (Simona Halep in 2017 and Sloane Stephens in 2018), Barty did not falter and went on to win the title, instead of losing in three sets.

Barty had never passed the second round in her five previous appearances before this year. By winning the major she became Australian's latest major champion after a gap of 8 years (2011 US Open) and her ascent to World #2 is the first time an Aussie woman had been ranked that high since 1976.

2019 FRENCH OPEN: Men's Final Preview (and Semifinals Review)

This is my prediction post for the 2019 French Open men's final. Last year I correctly predicted that Rafael Nadal  would defeat Dominic Thiem.  This year I predicted 1 of 2 men's semifinals correctly, 2 of 2 women's semifinals correctly, 0 of 4 women's quarterfinals correctly and 4 of 4 men's quarterfinals correctly. 

 MEN'S SEMIFINALS REVIEW

Rafael Nadal (ESP) [2] d. Roger Federer (SUI) [3] 6-3 6-4 6-2. This was the 39th meeting between the two tennis greats and despite Federer's improved backhand the result on clay was what was expected--an unsuspenseful win by Nadal, bringing his head to head lead back up to 24-15. The match was greatly affected by the weather as the wind was extremely high. Nadal was able to play more of his game in the weather than Federer was and was able to break Federer early in all 3 sets. (In the second set the break was a break-back which effectively ended Federer's chances to make the  match competitive.)

Dominc Thiem (AUT) [4] d. Novak Djokovic (SRB) [1] 6-2 3-6 7-5 5-7 7-5. This match was played over two days and was disrupted by weather multiple times. Thiem's win was quite a surprise, because Djokovic had won 26 consecutive grand slam matches. However, since Thiem had beaten Djokovic at this stage in the tournament before it was not out of the question it would happen again. It signals a significant breakthrough for the post-trivalry generation of another player under 30 reaching their second major final and signals that at some point in future the Prince of Clay may become the king.

 MEN'S FINAL PREVIEW

This is a reprise of last year's final which was easily won by Nadal. Since then, these two have played an epic 5-set match at the U.S. Open which was also won by Nadal, despite Thiem winning the first set 6-0! It's hard to see any other result beside Nadal winning his 12th French Open, but I think atleast the match will be extended to either four or five sets. PREDICTION: Nadal.

2019 FRENCH OPEN: Women's Semifinals Preview

Here are my predictions for the women's semifinals at the 2019 French Open.  I will also predict the men's semifinals. This year I predicted 0 of 4 women's quarterfinals correctly and 4 of 4 men's quarterfinals correctly. Last year I predicted 2 of 2 men's semifinals correctly and 2 of 2 women's semifinals correctly. 

Simona Halep (ROU) [3] Ananda Anisimova (USA) vs. Ashleigh Barty (AUS) [8]. 17-year-old American phenom Amanda Anisimova, who Matt Roberts of the Tennis Podcast says "has the best backhand in women's tennis" pulled off the biggest upset of an already surprising women's tournament at Roland Garros. She defeated last year's French Open champion and the prohibitive favorite Simona Halep in straight sets. In fact, Anisimova has won all 10 sets of tennis she has played at Roland Garros this year!  She will face Ash Barty who is the only player to be ranked in the Top 10 of both singles and doubles simultaneously on either side of the draw. Barty has been playing excellent tennis all year, having won her biggest title in Miami by defeating World #2 Karolina Pliskova. Barty was able to blunt the power of last year's semifinalist Madison Keys to reach her first major semifinal. Barty is now the highest rated player remaining in the draw, and has an excellent chance of winning her first Grand Slam singles title (she has two Grand Slam doubles titles). She has never played Anisimova before but her game is difficult for anyone to handle, with lots of spins and fearlessness at the net. Who will feel more nerves, the 23-year-old favorite or the 17-year-old upstart? Anisimova showed (almost) no nerves in her dismissal of Halep, so I suspect it will be Barty, but I think the Aussie's game will get her to the finish line. PREDICTION: Barty.

Sloane Stephens (USA) [7] Johanna Konta (GBR) [26] vs Marketa Vondrousova (CZE).  What is it about the French Open that so many players win their first (and perhaps only) major title here? Jelena Ostapenko (2017), Francesca Schiavone (2011)  and Anastaasia Myskina (2004) are just a few that come to mind. Can Johanna Konta join this list? She had never won a main draw match at Roland Garros yet when she defeated last year's finalist Sloane Stephens in straight sets Chris Evert said it was one of the best clay court performances she had ever seen. I definitely did not expect that to happen! Her opponent in her first major semifinal will be the 18-year-old Czech lefty Marketa Vondrousova who has reached the quarterfinals (or better) in every tournament she has played this year.  She already has demonstrated that she has made a quantum improvement in her game by defeating Petra Martic in the quarterfinals, a player she had lost 4 consecutive matches to  (including a clay court final this year). The two have  a 1-1 head-to-head record but Konta beat Vondrousova on her way to reaching the final in Rome just a few weeks ago (where she lost to Pliskova, who is no longer in the tournament). Konta has only one style of play while Vondrousova's game is much more creative and stylish, thus she can find multiple ways to win, and I think she will. PREDICTION: Vondrousova. 

2019 FRENCH OPEN: Women's Quarterfinals Preview (and Predictions)

Here are my predictions for the women's quarterfinals at the 2019 French Open.  I have also predicted the men's quarterfinals. Last year I predicted 3 of 4 men's quarterfinals correctly and 4 of 4 women's quarterfinals correctly.

Naomi Osaka (JPN) [1] Madison Keys (USA) [14] vs. Ashleigh Barty (AUS) [8]. Although it may seem surprising, Madison Keys actually plays some of her best tennis on clay courts. She reached the semifinals in Paris last year (where she was again not able to play her best tennis against her best friend on tour Sloane Stephens in another huge match). Both of these players have not been talked about much this year while 4/5ths of the World top 5 was crashing out in the early rounds (#1 Naomi Osaka and #2 Karolina Pliskova lost early  while #4 Kiki Bertens and #5 Petra Kvitova withdrew) but both have reached the business end of the tournament playing excellent tennis. Curiously, their head-to-head is tied at 1-apiece with Barty having won their last match (in Fed Cup) but Keys having won the one time that played on clay (two years ago). I'm going with Maddy. PREDICTION: Keys.

Simona Halep (ROU) [3] vs. Ananda Anisimova (USA).  This is Anisimova's major second week debut, which is pretty amazing for a 17 year old. The American phenom becomes the first person, male or female, born in the 21st century to reach a major quarterfinal. Halep completely destroyed her opponent in the previous round and is the defending champion here. I believe she will reach the final again, although I do think the youngster will acquit herself well. PREDICTION: Halep.

Kiki Bertens (NED) [4] Johanna Konta (GBR) [26] vs. Sloane Stephens (USA) [7].  This may be the most exciting of the four quarterfinals. Konta has never won a match in the main draw of the French Open before (is she going to try and pull a feast-or-famine performance reminiscent of 2017 winner Jelena Ostapenko?) while Stephens was in last year's final. Konta has been getting reasonably good results on clay, however, and has beaten Sloane twice this year (just a few weeks ago, on clay, in Rome as well as in Brisbane. However, I think that Sloane's game is bigger and more flexible that she can find different ways to win, which is really not true of Konta. PREDICTION: Stephens. 

Karolina Pliskova (CZE) [2] Marketa Vondrousova (CZE) vs. Petra Martic (CRO) [31]. Yet another teenaged phenom in the final 8 of a major. Czech lefty Marketa Vondrousova has been one of the hottest players on tour all year long. Curiously, these two have already an established rivalry going, with Martic up 4-0 in the head-to-head, including in the final of the clay court tournament in Istanbul a month ago. Sometimes a bad matchup is a bad matchup. PREDICTION: Martic.

2019 FRENCH OPEN: Men's Quarterfinals Preview (and Predictions)

Here are my predictions for the men's quarterfinals at the 2019 French Open.  I will also predict the women's quarterfinals. Last year I predicted 3 of 4 men's quarterfinals correctly and 4 of 4 women's quarterfinals correctly.

Novak Djokovic (SRB) [1] vs Alexander Zverev (GER) [5].  Djokovic has yet to lose a set  at this year's tournament and now has an amazing 25 match winning streak at Grand Slams as he goes for his second career "Nole Slam." He is going for his thirty-fifth major semifinal, while his opponent is going for his first. Interestingly, Zverev has an even head-to-head from the four matches the two have played, which is notable because while there are only 80 players who have played at least 4 matches with Djokovic only one person has a winning record (Andy Roddick!) If Zverev does win the match tomorrow, he would be in rarefied company. But  I don't think that's going to happen. Mad Professah's pick: Djokovic.

Dominic Thiem (AUT) [4] vs Juan Martin del Potro (ARG) [8] Karen Khachanov (RUS) [10].  Last year's finalist Dominic Thiem has been surprisingly vulnerable at this year's tournament, losing a set in every match he played except the latest one, which was a mind-numbingly routine win over an in-form Gael Monfils who had not lost a set getting to the fourth round and then could not win a single one against Thiem. In fact, Monfils has never won a set against Thiem and has given him a walkover win twice in the 8 matches they have been scheduled to play. Khachanov is a NextGen player who reached his first major quarterfinal by outlasting a mildly injured Juan Martin del Potro. Interestingly, Khachanov and Thiem have only played once before and the younger player has the win, and it occurred in Paris last year, while Khachanov was winning the Paris Masters title in the Fall. In fact, Khachanov is on a 10-match winning streak in Paris, so that should give him some confidence, but I don't think it will prevent Thiem getting to the Roland Garros semifinals for  the fourth consecutive year. Mad Professah's pick: Thiem.

Roger Federer (SUI) [3] vs Stefanos Tsitsipas (GRE) [6] Stan Wawrinka (SUI) [23]. Wawrinka played the best match of the tournament, and probably the year with Stefanos Tsitsipas, a 5-hour-9-minute, 5-set match in the round of 16. Wawrinka is a 3-time major champion, including winning the 2015 French Open which is where he took out Roger Federer in the quarterfinal on his way to winning the title that year after Djokovic eliminated the King of Clay in the quarterfinals. These two Swiss players have met 25 times on the tour and Federer has an imposing 22-3 lead. However all 3 win by Wawrinka have occurred on clay, but Federer still has an overall 4-3 lead on the surface and 6-1 in majors (although only one of  their matches has gone to 5 sets, which was one by Federer on his way to winning the 2017 Australian Open). Is that a presage of the result in this match? Mad Professah's pick: Federer.

Rafael Nadal (ESP) [2] vs Kei Nishikori (JPN) [7]. Two of Nishikori's four matches here have been 5 sets while Nadal has only dropped a single set in 4 matches, with numerous breadsticks and bagels handed out. Nishikori has 2 wins (compared to 10 losses) against Nadal, but neither of the wins have been on clay or in 5 sets. Nadal's record at Roland Garros is 90-2. It doesn't seem likely that one of these very historic results will happen against Nishikori. Mad Professah's pick: Nadal.

2019 FRENCH OPEN: First Round Complete (Kerber, Kvitova, Wozniacki, Medvedev, Ceccinato, Shapovalov OUT!)

The first round of the 2019 French Open is complete and the upsets have been few and far between. ON the women's side 5th seed Angelique Kerber (who I predicted to get to the final--oh well!) lost in straight sets to the hard-hitting youngster Anastasia Potapova. Injured 13th seed Caroline Wozniacki also lost in the first round despite bageling her opponent Veronika Kudermetova   to begin the match. Petra Kvitova withdrew from the tournament with a forearm muscle tear a few hours before her first round match, 18 year old Felix Auger-Aliassime also withdrew while his best friend and countryman (and 20th seed) Denis Shapovalov lost to Jan-Lennard Struff. On the men's side the highest seed to lose in the first round was 14th seed Daniil Medvedev lost a 5-set thriller to Pierre-Hughes Herbert while Nicolas Mahut eliminated last year's French Open semifinalist (and 16th seed) Marco Cecchinato in another 5-setter.

Some big names had close calls: World #1 (and #1 seed) Naomi Osaka lost her first set in a bagel and was two points from defeat down a break twice in the middle set but after pulling out the tiebreaker was able to run away with the decider. #10 seed Serena Williams lost her first set 2-6 but then turned it around and was dominant in the rest of the match, losing only one game. Close calls were not limited to the women. #5 seed Sasha Zverev took over 4 hours to subdue John Millman and #4 seed Dominic Thiem was basically being outplayed for two sets but managed to dismiss American Tommy Paul in 4. Even last year's champion Simona Halep lost a set in her first round but also won relatively easily in 3.

2018 FRENCH OPEN: Nadal Wins 17th Major (11th French Open) By Beating Dominic Thiem

As I predicted, Spaniard Rafael Nadal won his 11th French Open title in Paris on Sunday, his 17th major overall by defeating Dominic Thiem of Austria by the score of 6-4 6-3 6-2. Nadal won the tournament by only dropping a single set (in the quarterfinals of Diego Schwartzman of Argentina).

HOW THE FINAL WAS WON

Thiem started off the match very badly, losing the first 6 points in a row and was broken immediately. However, quite surprisingly he was able to break back and even the score at 2-all. Games went on sere until Thiem was serving at 4-5 when suddenly he payed a horrible game, going down 0-40 (triple set point for Nadal) and lost the next point to lose the first set. He also got broken almost immediately in the second set ad it was basically all down hill from there, with another straight sets win for Nadal.

ANALYSIS OF THE RESULT

Amazingly, Federer and Nadal have won the last 6 major titles, both over the age of 30. It means that Nadal, 32, is still only 3 major titles behind Federer's 20, and is 5 years younger (Federer tuns 37 in August). Today's win also means Nadal maintains the possibility (perhaps even the likelihood) of eventually evening and perhaps surpassing Federer's total of major singles titles. I would argue that the fact that Nadal is clearly the best on clay ever and has won 11 of his 17 titles on clay actually is an argument AGAINST the claim that Nadal is te G.O.A.T. It demonstrates that the source of his greatness is his dominance of clay (which is amazing) but the same cannot be said for either Grass (where he has 2 Wimbledon titles to Federer's 8) or hardcourts (where he has 4 major titles: 3 US Open and 1 Australian to Federer's 11: 5 US Open and 6 Australian).

The baton now switches to Federer to see if he can raise the G.O.A.T stakes again by winning Wimbledon, like he did last year. Only time will tell.

2018 FRENCH OPEN: Men's Final Preview (and Semifinals Review)

Rafael Nadal (ESP) [4] vs. Dominic Thiem (AUT) [7].

Here are my predictions for the men's final at the 2018 French Open. Last year I correctly predicted Rafael Nadal would defeat Stan Wawrinka in the 2017 final. This year I correctly predicted 4 of 4 women's quarterfinals, 2 of 2 women's semifinals, 2 of 2 men's seminfinals and 3 of 4 men's quarterfinals.

MEN'S FINAL PREVIEW

Rafael Nadal (ESP) [1] d. Juan Martin del Potro (ARG) [5] 6-4 6-1 6-2.  Surprisingly, this match was less competitive than the match Nadal played against a different Argentine, the diminutive Diego Schwartzman, in the previous round. Del Potro apparently suffered a hip injury midway through the first set and the ruthless Spaniard took advantage of the diminished mobility to punish and pummel Del Potro into submission.


Dominic Thiem (AUT) [7] d. Marco Cecchinato (ITA) 7-5 7-6(10) 6-1. nThis was a surprisingly competitive match between the #8 player in the world and someone barely into the Top 100. That is a strong statement in support of the play of the Italian, who had an almost magical run here in Paris which was just barely stopped before he could reach the final, but not before he has won several hundred thousamd Euros as an unseeded 2018 Roland Garros finalist.

MEN'S FINAL PREVIEW

Thiem is the only player to have won 2 sets on clay against Nadal in the same match in the last three years. He did it twice (2018 Madrid quarterfinals and 2017 Rome quarterfinal) and is clearly the second best clay court player in the world. However, the distance between the best player and the second best is huge, as Nadal has demonstrated time and time again. Nadal joins his nemesis/frenemy Roger Federer in the record books as the second man to play in 11 major finals on the same surface. (Federer has done it at Wimbledon, of course and is 8-3 with 1 loss to Nadal in 2008 and 2 losses to Novak Djkokovic in 2015 and 2016). Nadal is 11-0 in finals (and semifinals!) at Roland Garros and has only ever lost two matches there: 4th round to Robin Soderling in 2009 and in the quarterfinal of 2015.) It's hard to imagine  a more prohibitive favorite than Nadal. Amazingly, it would mean that for the second year n a row Federer and Nadal would have split the first two majors of the year between them.

MadProfessah's pick: Nadal.