Nadal Beat Murray; Faces Ferrer In Monte Carlo Final

Rafael Nadal outlasted Andy Murray 6-4 2-6 6-1 to reach his seventh consecutive Monte Carlo final, while David Ferrer demolished Jurgen Melzer 6-3 6-2 to set up an all-Spanish final. The Nadal-Murray clash lasted nearly 3 hours and featured the first set Nadal had lost in Monte Carlo since 2009. He has now won 36th consecutive matches there dating back to 2004. Last year, Nadal embarrassed fellow Spaniard Fernando Verasco 6-0 6-1 to win the tournament for the 6th consecutive time.

Federer Loses To Melzer; Nadal v Murray Semifinal Set

Roger Federer had a rare loss at the quarterfinal stage of a tournament today against left-handed Austrian Jurgen Melzer 6-4 6-4 on a windy day at the Monaco Masters. Melzer has now defeated Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic in his career. This was the first time the World #9 had beaten the current World #3 and the first time Federer had lost to someone other than Nadal or Djokovic since his November nailbiter loss to Gael Monfils after holding 5 match points. Melzer will face Spaniard David Ferrer in the semifinal.

In the other half of the draw, Nadal will face Andy Murray in the semifinal in his quest to win his 7th(!) consecutive Monaco title.

AUS OPEN 2011: Men's Quarterfinals Preview

Here are my predictions for the men's quarterfinals at the 2011 Australian Open.

Rafael Nadal ESP (1) Marin Cilic CRO (15) vs. Milos Raonic CAN David Ferrer ESP (7). I thought that the 6'6" 2010 Australian Open semifinalist from Croatia would have followed up on his 5-set win over John Isner with a better showing against Rafael Nadal. However, the World #1 came out with a strong game plan since Cilic had beaten him in their one meeting in October 2009 and dismantled the Croatian in straight sets 6-2 6-4 6-3.  David Ferrer has been called the best service returner in the world by both Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal and he demonstrated that ability against the huge serving 20-year-old, 6-foot-5-inch Canadian. Ferrer is only 5'9" but has optimized the amount of tennis success a male player can extract from such a slight frame. He is also one of the fittest players on tour and very speedy. The problem is, everything he can do, Nadal can do better, and Nadal is a lefty. Head-to-head the two have played 14 times with the more celebrated Spaniard winning all but 3 of their meetings. Ferrer does have a notable win over Nadal in the 2007 US Open quarterfinals, but unfortunately he will be playing the vastly improved 2011 version. The difference will be very clear. PREDICTION: Nadal in 3 sets.

Robin Soderling SWE (4) Alexandr Dolgopolov UKR  vs. Andy Murray GBR (5). The only unseeded player in the final 8 is the 22-year-old counterpuncher from Ukraine. From the way World #4 Robin Soderling was dismissing his opponents and hitting the ball in first three rounds I had expected him to have few problems getting past Dolgopolov but Soderling has never done well at the Australian Open and also doesn't like to play in windy conditions. That being said, the biggest problem he had on court was not the weather but the phenomenal defense and gigantic serving of the Ukrainian. Soderling was not playing his best tennis and ran into an opponent who could take advantage of this opportunity to reach his first major quarterfinal. Andy Murray has been playing some of the sharpest tennis of any of the legitimate contenders. He demolished  crafty lefty Jurgen Melzer and has yet to lose more than 3 games in a set through four rounds! Melzer at #11 and Guiullermo-Garcia at #32 are the only seeded players the Brit has faced on his way to an inevitable showdown with World #1 Rafael Nadal in the semifinals, whom he was on track to dismiss in the quarterfinals last year when Nadal retired. Of course the Spaniard went on to win every other Grand Slam for the rest of 2010, but I think that Murray does not fear Nadal on a hard-court. Will we see a reprise of the 2010 Australian Open final between Murray and Federer or a reprise of the 2009 Australian Open final between Nadal and Federer or something else? Only time will tell. PREDICTION: Murray in 3 sets. 

Tomas Berdych CZE (6) vs. Novak Djokovic SRB (3). This should be the best battle of the quarterfinal round, a showdown between the 2010 Wimbledon finalist and the 2010 US Open finalist. Djokovic has won this title before (over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in 2008) although the Frenchman was able to get revenge last year in this round. Head-to-head Berdych has only beaten Djokovic once, but it was a blowout in the 2010 Wimbledon semifinals. Since then, the Serbian has had multiple breakthroughs, including an epic 2010 US Open semifinal win over Roger Federer and anchoring his country to their first ever Davis Cup title. Berdych played near-perfect tennis in a tremendous 3-set dismissal of Fernando Verdasco in the 4th round (featuring a final set where the Czech was crushing the ball and had either 1 or 2 unforced errors). If Berdych plays like that, even a prodigiously talented ball-striker and mellifluously mobile player as Djokovic will have trouble surviving the onslaught. Another factor is that Djokovic's results are often sensitive to the weather conditions; if this match is played during the day then even a 3-set win will be unlikely for the Serb. PREDICTION:  Djokovic in 3 sets or Berdych in 4 or 5 sets.

Stanislas Wawrinka SUI (19) vs. Roger Federer SUI (2). These two are best friends and share a lot in common: they come from the same country, are both young fathers and are both undefeated in 2011 so far. Together they won the Gold medal in men's doubles at the Beijing Olympics in 2008. Head-to-head the two have played 7 times, with Wawrinka winning once on clay. They have only played once in a grand slam, with Federer winning that as well. Wawrinka has come up with some good upsets in the last two Slams (defeating Andy Roddick and Gael Monfils in this tournament and Andy Murray and Sam Querrey in the 2010 US Open) but I doubt that storyline will continue with the defending champion. This match should feature some exquisite one-handed backhands: my favorite shot! PREDICTION: Federer in 4 sets.

Shanghai: Melzer Upsets Nadal; Federer in Quarters Against Soderling

At the Shanghai Masters tournament World #1 Rafael Nadal was upset by Austrian lefty Jurgen Melzer 6-1 3-6 6-3 in the 3rd Round. Roger Federer beat Andreas Seppi while Robin Soderling defeated David Ferrer; the two winners will face each other in the quarter-finals.

Still in the tournament are Andy Murray, Novak Djokovic and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.

FRENCH OPEN 2010: Nadal Wins 5th FO; Retakes #1

Rafael Nadal won his 7th career major title and 5th French Open crown by defeating Robin Soderling 6-4 6-2 6-4. By doing so, he will reclaim the World #1 ranking, denying his arch-rival Roger Federer his record-tying 286th week at #1.

Nadal did not lose an entire set in the tournament, not even facing a set point with the only tiebreak set was against unheralded Jurgen Melzer in the semifinals. In the championship match he had a mere 16 errors and 28 winners, including 7 aces. Soderling played very well in patches but Nadal's defense was impeccable and jaw-dropping, saving all 8 breakpoints he faced.

Soderling had finally beaten Federer in the quarterfinals and survived a 5-set thriller against Tomas Berdych to reach his second consecutive Roland Garros final.

FRENCH OPEN 2010: Men's Semifinals Preview

I previously made predictions of the four women's quarterfinals and four men's quarterfinals and got 4 of 8 results correct at this year's French Open. The 2010 Roland Garros men's semifinals are now set.

Roger Federer SUI (1) Robin Soderling SWE (5) vs. Tomas Berdych CZE (15). Soderling loves Court Phillippe-Chatrier at Roland Garros. Last year he beat defending champion Rafael Nadal in the fourth round before losing to Roger Federer in the final. This year he beat defending champion Roger Federer in the quarterfinal and seems destined to reach his second consecutive Roland Garros final on the biggest clay court in the world. But there's someone who is even taller and serves bigger in the way of Soderling's dream: Tomas Berdych. Berdych has cut through the men's draw like the 6'5", 200 pound Czech scythe that he is, eliminating Andy Murray and John Isner along the way without dropping a set. Berdych recently had a career milestone when he finally beat Roger Federer for the first time in 9 matches(second time overall) in Miami in March. Soderling beat Federer for the first time of his career on Tuesday. The two have played 8 times overall, with Soderling holding a slim 5-3 lead in their career head-to-head match up. They have split the two matches they played this year, and they have split the two matches they have played on clay. In my mind, either Berdych will continue his rout of the field and win easily in straight sets (a low probability event) or he will start off hot and not be able to sustain his high level against someone like the powerful Swede who can match him toe-to-toe. Also, although this is Berdych's very first major semifinal, it is only Soderling's second, but this is also where Soderling outlasted Fernando Gonzalez in a very thrilling semifinal last year. I believe he will make it to the final for the second year in a row.

MadProfessah's pick: Berdych in 3 sets or Soderling in 4 or 5.

Novak Djokovic SRB (3) Jurgen Melzer AUT (22) vs. Rafael Nadal ESP (2). Although Nadal survived his toughest test of the tournament in countryman Nicolas Almagro by having to play three very tight sets (7-6(2) 7-6(3) 6-4), there is almost no doubt that the Spaniard will reach his 5th Roland Garros final in six years by dismissing the surprising Austrian veteran relatively quickly. Many people (myself included) were salivating at the chance of seeing another showdown between Nadal and Novak Djokovic in an important clay court match which could possibly reprise their now-legendary 2009 Madrid semifinal where Nadal won a 3-set match in 4 hours. However, it is significant that the Serb let slip a double set and a break advantage to lose another Roland Garros semifinal, this time to the relatively unheralded Melzer. Could he possibly have blanched at the thought of having to face Nadal for the third time in four years in the semifinal round? Nadal and Melzer have only met twice before, once on clay, with Nadal winning easily both times and this time will be no different.

MadProfessah's pick: Nadal in 3 sets.