Marriage Equality Cases Will Be Decided By US Supreme Court This Term!

Great news! The United States Supreme Court agreed to hear (granted certioari) in a number of consolidated cases from all four states in the Sixth Circuit that could lead to a ruling striking down all state-based laws that prohibit same-sex couples from getting married and states from recognizing those marriages. Two years ago on June 26, 2013 the Court ruled that the Congress could not enact a law to prohibit recognition by legally married same-sex couples for federal purposes.

There are currently 36 states (and the District of Columbia) with marriage equality, so the ruling by the Supreme Court would likely strike down the bans in the 14 remaining states.

The specific question the Supreme Court will ask parties to address in briefs and oral arguments are:

 1) Does the Fourteenth Amendment require a state to license a marriage between two people of the same sex? 2) Does the Fourteenth Amendment require a state to recognize a marriage between two people of the same sex when their marriage was lawfully licensed and performed out-of-state? 

It is likely there will be oral arguments in April (90 minutes on Question 1, 60 minutes on Question 2) and a final decision issued in the case(s) by June 2015.

Woo hoo!

Hat/tip to Chris Geidner!

Florida Becomes 3rd Most Populous State in the Union, North Carolina Becomes #9

The news this week was that Florida surpassed New York to take the #3 spot in the list of most populous states in the country. However, there was little mention that North Carolina skipped past Michigan to take the #9 spot and #8 Georgia joined the 10 million people club.

Here is the official data from the Census:

The 10 Most Populous States on July 1, 2014

Rank

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

State

California
Texas
Florida
New York
Illinois
Pennsylvania
Ohio
Georgia
North Carolina
Michigan

Population

38,802,500
26,956,958
19,893,297
19,746,227
12,880,580
12,787,209
11,594,163
10,097,343
9,943,964
9,909,877

6th U.S. Circuit Rules AGAINST Marriage Equality, Upholding Bans In KY, MI, OH and TN

Well! In a somewhat surprising move, the United States Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit has reversed multiple lower court rulings in favor of marriage equality and issued a 2-1 decision upholding the rights of Kentucky, Michigan, Ohio and Tennessee to enforce laws that restrict marriage to one man and one woman.

The 2-1 decision is contrary to decisions in the 9th, 10th, 4th and 7th Circuits which all favored marriage equality and which the Supreme Court declined to review last month, effectively granting marriage equality to go into effect in 30-plus states. Today's decision means that it is much more likely now that the United States Supreme Court will have to step in and give  a final resolution of the marriage equality question once and for all, probably by June 2015.

The two judges appointed by President Gerge W. Bush voted to uphold the marriage bans using the argument that judges should not be deciding such a question which could (and should) be sresolved by the Democratic process while the judge appointed by President Clinton voiced a fierce dissent to such an idea:

If we in the judiciary do not have the authority, and indeed the responsibility, to right fundamental wrongs left excused by a majority of the electorate, our whole intricate, constitutional system of checks and balances, as well as the oaths to which we swore, prove to be nothing but shams. 

[...] 

Instead, the majority sets up a false premise—that the question before us is “who should decide?”—and leads us through a largely irrelevant discourse on democracy and federalism. In point of fact, the real issue before us concerns what is at stake in these six cases for the individual plaintiffs and their children, and what should be done about it. Because I reject the majority’s resolution of these questions based on its invocation of vox populi and its reverence for “proceeding with caution” (otherwise known as the “wait and see” approach), I dissent.

It will be interesting to see how quickly the U.S. Supreme Court responds to today's actions by the 6th Circuit. Ruth Bader Ginsburg predicted that the Court would not feel inclined to get involved unless and until a Circuit split developed, and that is exactly what happened today.

Saturday Politics: Voting Rights Becomes Salient Issue As Election Day Approaches

The fight to exercise the right to vote has become more salient as Election Day gets closer and closer. Republicans are generally trying to make voting more difficult while Democrats are trying to make sure that everyone can vote. Legislatures in red states where Republicans have full control have passed multiple measures reducing early voting days, enacting voter identification laws in the name of "reducing voter fraud."

In the past week there have been important court actions from federal judges (including the U.S. Supreme Court) involving voting rights in states like Wisconsin, Texas, North Carolina and Ohio.

Prominent Election Law expert Rick Hasen describes these actions in an article for Slate magazine:

As I explained in a recent Slate column, ultimately at issue in the Ohio, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Texas cases is how broadly courts are going to intervene to protect voting rights in states where Republican legislatures have made it harder to register and to vote. All the cases raise claims under the U.S. Constitution’s equal protection clause and Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act. Ultimately, the Supreme Court could well side with the conservative judges in the courts below who have read these protections narrowly and not worried too much about the risk of voter disenfranchisement, rather than siding with the more liberal judges who have blocked restrictive laws for hurting minority voters, poor voters, and others. 

But none of these cases so far reached (or will reach) the Supreme Court as fully formed final cases. Instead, they have come up on emergency requests to block lower court orders that were put into effect just weeks before the election. The rulings have had election officials scrambling in Ohio, North Carolina, and Wisconsin to comply with new, and sometimes conflicting, court orders.

Meanwhile, in Illinois progressives have an opportunity to go on the offensive in the "War on Voting" this November when voters will decide whether to include a voting rights amendment to their state constitution.

The Illinois Right To Vote amendment reads:

No person shall be denied the right to register to vote or to cast a ballot in an election based on race, color, ethnicity, status as a member of a language minority, national origin, religion, sex, sexual orientation, or income.

It may come as a surprise but there is no official right to vote in the United States Constitution. It seems to me that getting such language in as many states as possible is a necessary (but not sufficient!) step to insure that our democracy remains functional.

Sixth U.S. Circuit To Hear Appeals In SIX Marriage Equality Cases Today

Today, August 6th will be an extraordinary day in the history of marriage equality. The 6th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in Cincinnati will hear marriage equality cases from all four states in the jurisdiction of the circuit: Michigan, Kentucky, Ohio and Tennessee.

As the Columbus Dispatch puts it:

It will be the single-largest legal event in the same-sex marriage debate since June 26, 2013, when the U.S. Supreme Court declared part of the federal Defense of Marriage Act to be unconstitutional. Since then, every major federal and state court ruling nationwide has gone in favor of gay-marriage proponents. The Cincinnati hearings are expected to draw such large crowds of journalists and spectators to the Potter Stewart U.S. Courthouse that the clerk of the 6th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals has set up two overflow courtrooms equipped with piped-in audio of the proceedings. All five cases will be heard by the same three-judge panel, consisting of former Ohio Supreme Court Justice Deborah L. Cook, 62; ex-state Solicitor Jeffrey Sutton, 53; and Martha Craig “Cissy” Daughtrey, 72. Daughtrey was appointed by President Bill Clinton in 1993, while Cook and Sutton were picked by President George W. Bush in 2003.

The 6th Circuit is considered relatively conservative so even though marriage equality is on an unprecedented winning streak in federal court, a win from this court would be something of a surprise.

Half of U.S. Senate Now Supports Marriage Equality

Mark Kirk became the 2nd Republican and 50th U.S. Senator
to endorse marriage equality for same-sex couples

Well, that didn't take long! Just a few days after I blogged that there were 9 remaining Democratic U.S. Senators who did not support marriage equality and wondered aloud how long it would take before a majority of Senators supported marriage equality, the answer comes that 50 U.S. Senators, a "functional majority" of that body (including Vice President Joe Biden) have explicitly articulated support for marriage equality.

The 50th Senator to do so is Mark Kirk of Illinois. Sen. Kirk is a significant addition to the list for two reason: he is only the second Republican U.S. Senator to (*cough*) come out in favor of marriage equality, and because he has been outed as a closeted gay man previously.

Sen. Kirk posted a statement to his official blog, saying:

When I climbed the Capitol steps in January, I promised myself that I would return to the Senate with an open mind and greater respect for others.  

Same-sex couples should have the right to civil marriage. Our time on this Earth is limited, I know that better than most.  Life comes down to who you love and who loves you back-- government has no place in the middle.

Amazingly, Kirk was not the only Senator to announce their support for marriage today. Finally, Senator Tom Carper of Delaware announced his support as well, in a somewhat bizarrely religion-infused statement:

As our society has changed and evolved, so too has the public’s opinion on gay marriage — and so has mine. I pray every day for God to grant me the wisdom to do what is right. Through my prayers and conversations with my family and countless friends and Delawareans, I’ve been reminded of the power of one of my core values: the Golden Rule. It calls on us to treat others as we want to be treated. That means, to me, that all Americans ultimately should be free to marry the people they love and intend to share their lives with, regardless of their sexual orientation, and that’s why today, after a great deal of soul searching, I’m endorsing marriage equality.

In other Delaware news, it's long Congressperson (the population of the First State is so small that it has an at-large Member of Congress), U.S. Representative John Carney also expressed his support for marriage equality this week. The fact that the entire federal Congressional delegation including Democratic Governor Jack Markell all support marriage equality should help move the pending marriage equality bill through that state's legislature,

Think Progress has a nice graphic containing the face of the 50 US. Senators who support marriage equality

The times, they are a changin'! Anyone else think we'll hit actual majority support in the Senate by the end of the week?

2 Days Until Election: Obama 303, Romney 191

One thing is sure, and that is that election day is nearly here, just two days away. In the TPM Electoral College Scoreboard the Blue team has now surged to a 112 vote lead, with 303 electoral votes to the Red Team's 191 electoral votes. Only Florida (29) and North Carolina (15) still remain Yellow, or "Too Close To Call" in this scenario.

This is a small change from Friday's outlook when Obama-Biden led 285 EV to 191 EV, as Ohio (18) has moved back ever slightly into the blue column. For Romney-Ryan to win the election, they will have to not only win the two yellow states, but flip  blue states worth a total 35 electoral votes from the Obama-Biden side. This is definitely possible, and Ohio would count for half of those votes needed, and when combined with Virginia (13) and New Hampshire (4) that would be sufficient.

It may be a long election night on Tuesday!

4 Days Until Election: Obama 285, Romney 191

The latest polling data reflected in the TPM Election Scoreboard shows that with 4 days left the blue team has a solid lead in the electoral college of 285 votes for Obama-Biden to 191 for Romney-Ryan.

The only  undecided states right now are Ohio (18), Virginia (13) North Carolina (15) and Florida (29), totaling a mere 62 ekectoral votes out of the total of 538 (270 are needed to win the presidency).  The point here is that even if the Red team were to win all the remaining Undecided states, President Obama would still be re-elected.

This is a somewhat significant change from just 3 days ago where, with 1 week to go, Obama-Biden by 247 electoral votes to 206 electoral votes, small lead of 41 electoral votes, which now with a mere 4 days to go has become a muhc larger 94 vote lead for the President.

Hopefully, despite the closeness of the national polls, the result of the election will be known by midnight on Tuesday November 6th!

2 Weeks Until Election: Obama 233, Romney 195

There are now two weeks until election day, a mere 14 days and the presidential race is getting even tighter. Last week the difference between Obama-Biden 2012 and Romney-Ryan 2012 was 25 electoral votes, with the blue team at 247 electoral votes to the red team's 222.

This week, both teams have had their electoral vote totals reduced as more states slip into the Undecided (or yellow) category from last week. Obama-Buden lost 14 electoral votes while Romney-Ryan lost 27, nearly twice as many. There are a total of 8 states in the yellow category: Ohio (18), Iowa(6) , New Hampshire (4), Virginia (13), Florida (29), Pennsylvania (20),  Arizona (11) and Colorado (9) totally 120 electoral votes. This is because once the polling average becomes 2 points or less, the TPM Electoral Scoreboard considers  the state to be in the "Undecided" category.

However the blue team now has a lead of 38 electoral votes with 14 days to go. Some of the states that are listed as undecided are very likely to revert to their historical pattern, with Arizona's 11 electoral votes going to the Republicans and Pennsylvania's 20 electoral votes going to the blue team.

If there any dramatic changes in the next few days I may post updates on a more frequent schedule instead of waiting for next week.

Stay tuned!

Saturday Politics: Update on the GOP War on Voting

There are now 17 days to go before the election and early voting has started in many states around the country. This seems like a good time to get an update on what has become to be known as the Republican War on Voting.

Most analysts think that many more Democrats than Republican have taken advantage of early voting procedures so far, and this is most likely one of the reasons Republicans have been trying so hard to suppressing voting rights all over the country, by making it harder for people to register to vote, by literally dropping likely Democrats from voting rolls, reducing early voter hours and by making voting more difficult by enacting voter identification laws. I have previously discussed how racial animus fuels this movement to restrict voting.

Of course, the most notorious of these battles in the War on Voting have occurred in some of the most important states, namely Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania. I have previously discussed the nakedly partisan actions of the Republican Secretary of State in Ohio to restrict early voting in order to make it more difficult for people to vote in his state.

Ari Berman of The Nation has the deets on Ohio:

The Supreme Court on Tuesday unanimously rejected an appeal by Ohio Secretary of State Jon Husted to overturn a lower court decision upholding early voting in Ohio three days before the election. The ruling was a major victory for voting rights—and yet another defeat for voter suppression efforts—allowing Ohio voters to cast a ballot when it’s most convenient and hopefully forestalling the long lines that marred the outcome of the 2004 election in the state. 

That’s the good news. The bad news? Ohio Secretary of State Jon Husted swiftly limited early voting hours on those crucial three days to 8 am–2 pm on Saturday, November 3; 1–5 pm on Sunday, November 4; and 8am–2 pm on Monday, November 5. That means Ohio voters will have a total of only sixteen hours to cast a ballot during those three days. And before the weekend before the election, Ohio voters will still not be able to cast a ballot in-person on nights or weekends. 

In 2008, the most populous counties in Ohio allowed more time for early voting—both in terms of days (thirty-five) and hours (on nights and weekends in many places). For the three days before the election, early voting locations were open for a total of twenty-four hours in Columbus’s Franklin County (8-5 on Saturday, 1-5 on Sunday and 8-7 on Monday) and 18 and a half hours in Cleveland’s Cuyahoga County (9-1 on Saturday, 1-5 on Sunday, 8:30-7 pm on Monday). During those final three pre-election days in 2008, 148,000 votes were cast and “wait times stretched 2 1/2 hours,” reported the Columbus Dispatch.

While the Huffington Post reported on the suspension of the most odious aspects of the Pennsylvania voter id law by a judge on October 2:

In a much-anticipated ruling, Commonwealth Court Judge Robert E. Simpson Jr. ordered that voters without government-issued photo ID should be allowed to cast regular ballots. 

[...] 

Simpson's injunction "will have the effect of extending the express transition provisions of [the new law] through the general election," the judge wrote. That means that, just like during the primary election, voters will be asked for ID but still be allowed to vote if they don't have it. 

The law as passed by the Republican legislature and signed by the Republican governor had only allowed people without ID to cast "provisional" ballots, which would be thrown out unless they returned with ID within six days.
The Pennsyvlania legislature is one of several that, after Republicans took control in 2010, passed legislation to make it harder, rather than easier, to vote.

The ruling doesn't stop the state and other groups from publicizing false information that voter id is still required in Pennsylvania, so the good guys are going back to court to get that activity prevented under a new injunction.

Meanwhile in Florida, Think Progress reports on Republican Governor's failed attempt to strike as many 180,000 people from the voter rolls has fizzled to a list with just 198 names on it:

Initially, Florida identified 180,000 potential non-citizens to be purged from the voter rolls. That list was subsequently narrowed down to 2600 “sure fire” non-citizens. When it became clear in early June that even the smaller list was riddled with errors, elections officials stopped the effort. 

According to the Miami Herald, Florida has sent just 198 names to local election supervisors. (Of those, no more than 36 have ever cast a ballot.) But there is already evidence that the latest list still is not accurate.

And just for completeness the Los Angeles Times reported this week that a Republican operative in Virginia was arrested for illegally throwing completed voter registration forms in the garbage:

A man who was being paid to register voters by the Republican Party of Virginia was arrested Thursday after he was seen dumping eight registration forms into a dumpster. 

Colin Small, 31, was working as a supervisor as part of a registration operation in eight swing states financed by the Republican National Committee. Small, of Phoenixville, Pa., was first hired by Strategic Allied Consulting, a firm that was fired by the party after suspect voter forms surfaced in Florida and other states. 

[...] 

Strategic Allied is owned by Nathan Sproul, an Arizona political consultant for Republicans whose companies have faced charges in past elections of submitting forged forms and of dumping Democratic registrations. None of the charges were proved, and Sproul continues to do get-out-the-vote work for conservative causes this election.

Hopefully the election will not be close enough in any state for the War on Voting to actually determine the result but honestly that is unlikely.

POLL: Marriage Equality Up In Swing States OH, FL, VA

As the election gets closer and closer there seem to be more and more polls out, especially of the "swing states" which will decide the winner of the presidency. Three of the most important are Florida (29 electoral votes), Ohio (18 electoral votes) and Virginia (13 electoral votes). While polling on the presidential race, some pollsters have also asked about marriage equality.

A recent Washington Post poll from earlier this week asked the question "Do you think it should be legal or illegal for gay and lesbian couples to get married?" and among registered voters the numbers were 54-33 in Florida, 52-37 in Ohio and 49-40 in Virginia in support of marriage equality.

This is another encouraging sign that marriage equality is a majority position throughout the country, which several nationwide polls have indicated for the last 18 months or so.

hat/tip to LGBT Think Progress

7 Weeks Till Election: Obama 274, Romney 206

There are 49 days (7 weeks) until Election Day 2012. In today's Electoral College Scoreboard, President Obama leads with 274 votes to Mitt Romney's 206 votes. Last week, Obama-Biden 2012 led with 256 votes to 206 for Romney-Ryan 2012.

The only change from last week to this week is that Ohio has changed from being a a"yellow" (undecided or too-close-to-call) state to a "light blue" (leans Democratic) state, giving its 18 electoral votes to the Democrats and thus making it increasingly unlikely that Republican candidate would win the election.
It takes 270 electoral votes to be elected President. No Republican presidential candidate in modern times has been elected without winning Ohio.

2012 CINCY: Li Na Wins 1st Title in 15 Months

Li Na won her first WTA title in over 15 months by defeating Angelique Kerber 1-6 6-3 6-1 in the finals of the Western & Southern Open in Cincinnati, Ohio on Sunday. It was Li's first title since she won the 2011 French Open title, and it came in her 4th WTA tour final of 2012.

After being blown out by the lefty German in the first set, Li received on-court coaching from Carlos Rodrigues (the former coach of Justine Henin) and was able to come back from a break down in the second set to clinch the middle set by following her brand new coach's direction (use more topspin). They key point of the match was an interminable game at 3-4 which lasted some two dozen minutes where Li had more than a handful of breakpoints, saved by incredible defense by Kerber. Eventually, Li did garner the break and the German was basically mentally exhausted and proceeded to lose the next 5 games, going down 0-4 in the deciding set. This was quite a surprise because Kerber has one of the best three-set records on the WTA tour. Li closed out the match by breaking Kerber at love when a lefty forehand flew feet over the baseline.

Li must be happy to have ended her title drought right before the US Open starts one week from today, since hardcourts are her best surface.

2012 CINCY: Federer Beats Djokovic To Win 76th Title

Reuters

Much to my surprise Roger Federer beat Novak Djokovic to win his 76th ATP Tour title and 5th Western & Southern Open title in Cincinnati 6-0 7-6(7). (Federer has now claimed the Cincinnati Masters in 2005, 2007, 2009, 2010 and 2012.) It was the 28th meeting between the two champions, with Federer improving to 16-12 and winning his first bagel set in over 82 sets played.

For the first time in ATP history both players reached the final without having lost their serve, but Djokovic started extremely flat. After winning the first point of the match with an ace, he proceeded to hit 2 double faults in his very first service game, and ended up being broken. In fact, the first set went by in a blur, with Djokovic struggling to win points, and after 21 minutes it was over. The second set was more competitive but it wasn't until half way through it that Djokovic hit his very first winner and Federer held his serve throughout, forcing the tiebreak. Federer quickly went up a mini-break and won the first 3 points of the tiebreak.  Djokovic responded by winning the next four points to go up a mini-break but then things were pretty even on serve after that. Eventually Djokovic was able to save championship point against him on his own serve at 5-6 but was unable to do so at 7-8 after Federer saved a set point down on his own serve at 6-7.

Federer's win today puts him back in a tie with longtime rival Rafael Nadal with 21 ATP Masters shields each.

The 2012 US Open starts in a week, on Monday August 27th. The draw will be revealed on Thursday August 23rd.

Do Republicans Believe In Democracy? It Seems Not

It's starting to get sorta obvious that the Republican Party doesn't really believe in the principle that democracy is strengthened when voter participation is increased. In fact, they really are trying really, really hard to make it as hard as possible for minority voters in urban settings to vote, using the presumable non-partisan machinery of the state to enact this vision of a lily-white electorate.

The Nation magazine has a great article describing some of the shenanigans that are going on now to make sure that Ohio delivers it's all-important electoral college votes for the Republican nominee:

The real story from Ohio is how cutbacks to early voting will disproportionately disenfranchise African-American voters in Ohio’s most populous counties. African-Americans, who supported Obama over McCain by 95 points in Ohio, comprise 28 percent of the population of Cleveland’s Cuyahoga County but accounted for 56 percent of early voters in 2008, according to research done by Norman Robbins of the Northeast Ohio Voter Advocates and Mark Salling of Cleveland State University. In Columbus’s Franklin County, African-Americans comprise 20 percent of the population but made up 34 percent of early voters.

Now, in heavily Democratic cities like Cleveland, Columbus, Akron and Toledo, early voting hours will be limited to 8 am until 5 pm on weekdays beginning on October 1, with no voting at night or during the weekend, when it’s most convenient for working people to vote. Republican election commissioners have blocked Democratic efforts to expand early voting hours in these counties, where the board of elections are split equally between Democratic and Republican members. Ohio Republican Secretary of State Jon Husted has broken the tie by intervening on behalf of his fellow Republicans. (According to the Board of Elections, 82% of early voters in Franklin County voted early on nights or weekends, which Republicans have curtailed. The number who voted on nights or weekends was nearly 50% in Cuyahoga County.)

"I cannot create unequal access from one county board to another, and I must also keep in mind resources available to each county,” Husted said in explaining his decision to deny expanded early voting hours in heavily Democratic counties. Yet in solidly Republican counties like Warren and Butler, GOP election commissioners have approved expanded early voting hours on nights and weekends. Noted the Cincinnati Enquirer: “The counties where Husted has joined other Republicans to deny expanded early voting strongly backed then-candidate Barack Obama in 2008, while most of those where the extra hours will stand heavily supported GOP nominee John McCain.” Moreover, budget constraints have not stopped Republican legislators from passing costly voter ID laws across the map since 2010.

Read that excerpt again. They are expanding early voting hours in Republican-leaning counties while simultaneously denying similar efforts in Democrat-leaning counties! This is why the identity (and political affiliation) of the Secretary of State is so important. I hope that this story becomes more widely known and that people take measures now to combat this craziness and make sure to exercise their right to vote regardless of how difficult the GOP makes it, in every state of the Union.

I also hope that the Department of Justice takes a serious look at these practices and uses every tool it has to  try to enforce basic levels of equal access to the polls throughout Ohio and other states like North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Florida and Colorado where concerted efforts are being engaged in to reduce the votes of Black and Latino voters, primarily Black voters. Republicans know that for every Black vote they can prevent from being cast, there's a close to 95% probability they have reduced Barack Obama's presidential vote total.

What's so astonishing here is that I'm sure that GOP operatives just consider this as "politics as usual" while one would think that there are some principles that would supersede partisanship and the desire to win at all cost, and that is the notion that Democracy (and democratic principles) are at stake here.

hat/tip to Maddow Blog.

STUDY: Racial Animus Fuels Voter ID Laws

One of the big stories of 2012 as the United States approaches the presidential election on November 6 has been what progressives like to call "the war on voting." It's pretty much an article of faith among most people who are not Republicans that our Democracy is strengthened if more people vote. However, in many states with a Republican majority in the legislature and a Republican governor (like Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Florida) due to the low-turnout 2010 elections, Republicans have passed "voter identification" (sometimes called "vote protection" laws by Republicans or "voter suppression" laws by Democrats) which appear to have the effect of reducing the number of people who will be allowed to cast a legal vote.

Voter ID Laws Have Disparate Impact On Racial Minorities
The Brennan Center for Justice at New York University School of Law has analyzed the impact of these voter identification laws on various racial groups, poor people and young people and the results are striking:

The 11 percent of eligible voters who lack the required photo ID must travel to a designated government office to obtain one. Yet many citizens will have trouble making this trip. In the 10 states with restrictive voter ID laws:

• Nearly 500,000 eligible voters do not have access to a vehicle and live more than 10 miles from the nearest state ID-issuing office open more than two days a week. Many of them live in rural areas with dwindling public transportation options.

• More than 10 million eligible voters live more than 10 miles from their nearest state ID-issuing office open more than two days a week.

• 1.2 million eligible black voters and 500,000 eligible Hispanic voters live more than 10 miles from their nearest ID-issuing office open more than two days a week. People of color are more likely to be disenfranchised by these laws since they are less likely to have photo ID than the general population.

• Many ID-issuing offices maintain limited business hours. For example, the office in Sauk City, Wisconsin is open only on the fifth Wednesday of any month. But only four months in 2012 — February, May, August, and October — have five Wednesdays. In other states — Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, and Texas — many part-time ID-issuing offices are in the rural regions with the highest concentrations of people of color and people in poverty.

More than 1 million eligible voters in these states fall below the federal poverty line and live more than 10 miles from their nearest ID-issuing office open more than two days a week. These voters may be particularly affected by the significant costs of the documentation required to obtain a photo ID. Birth certificates can cost between $8 and $25. Marriage licenses, required for married women whose birth certificates include a maiden name, can cost between $8 and $20. By comparison, the notorious poll tax — outlawed during the civil rights era — cost $10.64 in current dollars.

A poll tax by any other name is still a poll tax (and is therefore just as unconstitutional)!

Joan McCarter at DailyKos points out that the suppressive effect on the voting rights of these constituencies, all of whom tend to vote more prevalently for Democrats than Republicans, is precisely what the people who passed the laws intended.

Voter ID Laws Are Fueled By Racial Animus
One interesting question is what is fueling the drive for voter identification laws now and another academic study has analyzed that question and come to a conclusion (that is unsurprising to some) that it involves racism.

The University of Delaware's Center for Political Communication recently conducted a national survey of American voters to discover what kind of voters support voter identification laws and demonstrated that support for the measures is highly correlated with racial resentment, regardless of party affiliation.

In fact, while most Republicans and conservatives strongly support voter identification laws regardless of their level of racial resentment, it is Democrats and liberals who have more racial resentment that are more likely to support voter identification laws.

The survey reveals strong partisan and ideological divisions on racial resentment [see Figure]. Republicans and conservatives have the highest “racial resentment” scores, and Democrats and liberals have the lowest; Independents and moderates are in the middle. In addition, Democrats and liberals are least supportive of voter ID laws, whereas Republicans and conservatives are most supportive. The link between “racial resentment” and support for such laws persists even after controlling for the effects of partisanship, ideology, and a range of demographic variables.

Read the last sentence again. Regardless of partisanship (Republican or Democrat) or ideology (conservative or liberal) or other demographics, people who support voter identification laws are correlated with people who harbor racial resentment. There's also the matter-of-fact reporting that Republicans and conservatives have the highest levels of racial resentment; it is not just partisanship which animates the Right's energetic efforts to replace the first black Democratic president.

Hopefully, federal courts who are considering challenges to these voter identification laws in places like Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania (which "just happen" to be the swing states where the outcome of the 2012 presidential election may be decided) will also consider the unconstitutional disparate racial impact of these laws as well as the evidence that that they are fueled by unconstitutional racial animus.

Our nation's democratic tradition is one of the wonders of the modern world, but it is vulnerable to partisan manipulation, especially in a close election, because all one has to do is produce a disturbance or perturbation which either (more likely) suppresses voter turnout of your opposition or enhances voter turnout of your supporters on Election Day to swing an election in your favor. Once Election Day is over, it's over and the results will stand, even if those results were tainted by partisan trickery. And once a group is able to achieve a result that does not reflect what the majority of voters actually intended (some would argue that this already has happened!) it is basically the end of our nation's democratic tradition.

David Boone: From Homeless To Harvard

David Boone, 19, has been admitted to Harvard
and many other Ivy League universities

Previously I had blogged about the amazing story of Khadijah Williams, an African-American homeless girl who lived on Skid Row in Los Angeles and who was admitted to and is now thriving at Harvard University. I guess such heart-warming stories are not as rare as I first thought. Today I bring you the story of David Boone, a homeless African-American boy from Cleveland  who will be going to Harvard starting in Fall 2012!

You really should read this entire article on David Boone at The Cleveland Plain Dealer:

David, 18, credits [ MC²STEM High School] both with engaging him more in class and with raising his standards so that he could not accept mediocrity. The result was academic success: He expects to be the salutatorian of his school's first graduating class.

And he was accepted at 22 of the 23 colleges he applied to. Turned down only by his top choice, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, he's one of the few people who will attend Harvard as a fallback option.

While David is softspoken, with a healthy amount of modesty, his achievement is a source of pride for Cleveland school officials, who rave about him. His success is even more impressive given his background.

He has little contact with his father, he says, and has not lived regularly with his mother, Moneeke Davis, since eighth grade. After a neighborhood gang shot up her Eddy Road home, the family had to split into several places, he says, and David has bounced from home to home, sometimes living on the streets.

I love these kinds of stories! If you readers here of any similar stories of against-the-odds successes, feel free to leave links to them in the comments. In a couple of years I will try and follow up and find out how David is doing at Harvard. Happily he received a Gates Millenium scholarship so almost all of his expenses will be paid for while he is at college.

Elections Have Consequences Voters Starting To Realize

In November 2010, voters elected Republican governors with Republican legislative majorities in Ohio, Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin and Georgia.

Think Progress has created a fun graphic which shows that in all of those states, if voters could have a "do-over" election today, they would vote for the Democratic candidate instead. Currently, signatures are being gathered in Michigan to begin the process of being recalling Governor Vic Snyder, and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker may face one next year.

Clockwise from left to right: Scott Walker (R-Wisconsin)
Chris Christie (R-New Jersey), Rick Scott (R-Florida) and Vic Snyder (R-Michigan)

One of these governors is the most unpopular state chief executive in the country. The question is, which one?

Florida's Rick Scott and Ohio's John Kasich are currently the leading contenders for the title of the most unpopular governor in America, according to a recent Public Policy Polling (PPP) survey. (A mere 32 percent of respondents approve of Scott, while just 33 percent support Kasich. A separate Quinnipiac poll puts Scott's approval even lower, at 29 percent.) Michigan's Rick Snyder is struggling with a 33 percent approval rating, and in Wisconsin, 43 percentapprove of Scott Walker, PPP found—down 3 points from February and 9 from Election Day 2010. Only 41 percent of respondents gave Iowa's Terry Branstad a thumb's up. Even New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, a darling of the GOP, has seen his approval plummet in recent weeks, according to a recent PublicMind released by Fairleigh Dickinson University.

Talking Points Memo makes the point that these unpopular governors are heads of states which may be swing states in the 2012 presidential election, thus aiding President Obama's re-election:

A Quinnipiac poll released last week found that just 29% of voters approved of Scott's job performance, while a 57% majority disapproved. At the same time, Obama's approval rating rebounded from a negative 44% to 52% split in April to a positive 51% to 43% in May, and he increased his leads over each of several high-profile 2012 GOP contenders. Certainly some of that Obama bump is wholly unrelated to Scott -- the killing of Osama bin Laden, for one -- but Scott's unpopularity is sure to be a weight on his party's candidates next year if his standing doesn't improve.

In Ohio, a similar scenario has unfolded, where union-busting Gov. John Kasich is now so unpopular that a recent PPP poll showed him losing a do-over election by an astounding 25-point margin. In that same poll, just 33% of voters gave Kasich positive marks on his job performance, compared to 56% who said the opposite, tying Kasich with Rick Scott as the most unpopular of 38 governors PPP has surveyed.

Meanwhile, Obama posted comfortable leads against each Republican challenger pitted against him in 2012 contests in that state, despite posting a middling approval rating, with 46% of voters giving him a thumbs up versus 49% who gave him a thumbs down. In releasing those findings, PPP's Tom Jensen credited voter discontent with Kasich for helping put Obama over the top.

Why would anyone vote for a Republican, ever?

Obama Leads In Most Polls of 3 Largest Battleground States

TPM Election Central has an update highlighting the latest polls in the largest states (with the most electoral votes) still at play in the presidential election with 6 days left: Florida (27 votes), Pennsylvania (21) and Ohio (20).

Florida

Oct 29 Quinnipiac: Obama (D) 47%, McCain (R) 45%

Oct 28 LAT/Bloomberg: Obama (D) 50%, McCain (R) 43%

Oct 27 Datamar: Obama (D) 49%, McCain (R) 44%

Oct 27 Rasmussen: Obama (D) 51%, McCain (R) 47%

Oct 27 Suffolk: Obama (D) 49%, McCain (R) 44%

Oct 27 Zogby: Obama (D) 47%, McCain (R) 47%

Oct 24 Str. Vision (R): McCain (R) 48%, Obama (D) 46%


Ohio

Oct 29 Quinnipiac: Obama (D) 51%, McCain (R) 42%

Oct 28 LAT/Bloomberg: Obama (D) 49%, McCain (R) 40%

Oct 28 SurveyUSA: Obama (D) 49%, McCain (R) 45%

Oct 27 Rasmussen: Obama (D) 49%, McCain (R) 45%

Oct 27 Zogby: Obama (D) 50%, McCain (R) 45%

Oct 26 Univ. of Akron: Obama (D) 45%, McCain (R) 41%

Oct 25 Univ. of Cincinnati: Obama (D) 49%, McCain (R) 46%

Oct 24 PPP (D): Obama (D) 51%, McCain (R) 44%

Oct 24 Str. Vision (R): McCain (R) 48%, Obama (D) 45%


Pennsylvania

Oct 29 Quinnipiac: Obama (D) 53%, McCain (R) 41%

Oct 28 Rasmussen: Obama (D) 53%, McCain (R) 46%

Oct 28 Muhlenberg Tracker: Obama (D) 53%, McCain (R) 41%

Oct 27 Temple Univ.: Obama (D) 50%, McCain (R) 41%

Oct 27 Muhlenberg Tracker: Obama (D) 53%, McCain (R) 40%

Oct 26 Muhlenberg Tracker: Obama (D) 53%, McCain (R) 40%

Oct 25 Muhlenberg Tracker: Obama (D) 52%, McCain (R) 41%

Oct 24 Muhlenberg Tracker: Obama (D) 52%, McCain (R) 40%

Oct 24 Str. Vision (R): Obama (D) 50%, McCain (R) 43%

It should be noted that four years ago John Kerry was blown out in Florida (by nearly 400,000 votes out of 8 million), won Pennsylvania (by 145,000 votes out of nearly 6 million) and barely lost Ohio (by 120,000 votes out of 5.5 million).

Obama only needs to win every state John Kerry won plus 18 more electoral votes in order to win the Presidential election. This could happen by winning either OH or FL or any combination of Iowa (7), New Mexico (5), Virginia (13), North Carolina (15), Colorado (9) in which he currently leads.

This Is Why I Am Confident Obama Will Win

This great graphic from DailyKos highlights the change in polling in favor of Barack Obama from September 19th through October 23rd in the eight Big Ten battleground states of Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois and Minnesota. Obama is now leading stronly (over 50%) in every single one of the battleground states, and several of them have early voting! By election day, an estimated one-third of all Americans will have voted already.

Do you really think McCain can make up the difference in all of these states in a dozen days? I don't.