Cory Booker Announces 2020 Presidential Run

Cory Booker announced on Friday February 1 (the beginning of Black History Month) that he is running for the Democratic nomination for President in 2020. The 49-year-old, vegan, bachelor junior U.S. senator from New Jersey joins the most diverse presidential aspirant field ever. It already features Kamala Harris (U.S. Senator from California), Kirsten Gillibrand (U.S. Senator from New York), Elizabeth Warren (U.S. Senator from Massachusetts) and Julian Castro (former secretary of Housing and Urban Development in the Obama administration).

CELEBRITY FRIDAY: Hillary Clinton Turns 71 Today

Hillary Rodham Clinton turns 71 today. She is the wife of  former U.. President William Jefferson Clinton and the winner of the popular vote in the 2016 presidential election. The winner of the electoral  vote, President Trump was born June 17, 1946, so is 72 years old.

Happy Birthday, Hillary!

SUNDAY POLITICS: Comparing Presidential Approval Rating Variability

Hat/tip Political Wire

SATURDAY POLITICS: Republicans View Things Very Differently Than Democrats and Independents

Of course, for the last week the political world has been buzzing over the march by white supremacists and Nazis in Charlottesville, Virginia and President Trump's widely panned response. However, it should be noted that this negative response to Trump's assigning equal responsibility to white supremacists and those who oppose them for the violence that occurred in Charlottesville (despite the fact that it was an avowed racist who has been arrested and charged with driving the car that killed one of the people protesting the white supremacists) is not universal. 64% of Republicans  agree (with Trump's statements that "both [sides are] equally [to blame]" while 66% of Democrats assign responsibility to the neo-Nazis, anti-semites and white supremacists who marched in Charlottesville.

However, as I have blogged about previously on Saturday Politics Republicans have views about things that are very different from others, such as viewing discrimination against groups differently based on partisan differences as well as which groups suffer more discrimination than others.

Today's blog post is about how Republicans view many institutions (colleges and universities, labor unions, national news media and churches) very differently than others.

MAP: Trump's Approval Rating Varies Greatly By Stae

It is well-known that Donald Trump has historically low approval ratings, especially for a newly elected president. However, what may not be recognized is the geographical variation in his approval ratings. There are 17 states where Trump is above majority support averaged over the first 6 months of his presidency, according to Gallup. There are also 17 states where his approval average is below 40%!

President Donald Trump, who has averaged 40% job approval since his inauguration, received approval ratings of 50% or higher in 17 states in the first half of 2017. Residents in an equal number of states gave him approval ratings below 40%. In 16 states, his ratings ranged between 40% and 49%.

Hat/tip to Axios

SATURDAY POLITICS: Presidential First-Quarter Approval Rating Comparisons; #CA34 Runoff Between Gomez and Ahn; Gorsuch's 1st Killer Vote

TRUMP'S FIRST-QUARTER APPROVAL RATINGS ARE HISTORICALLY LOW COMPARED TO OTHER FIRST-TERM PRESIDENTS
The Huffington Post reports that Donald Trump is the first post-World War president to have less than majority support from the American populace after the first quarter of his first term.

President Donald Trump received substantially worse ratings for his initial months in office than any other president elected to his first term since World War II, according to Gallup.

Even those presidents who went on to be unpopular generally enjoyed high ratings during their first months in office after their electoral victory. But Trump’s average rating since Inauguration Day is just 41 percent, Gallup finds, making him the only such president in its polling history to fall short of majority approval during his first quarter.

President Bill Clinton, the next-lowest ranked, had an average approval rating of 55 percent for that time period, while Presidents Barack Obama and George W. Bush enjoyed first-quarter ratings of 63 percent and 58 percent, respectively. 

It should be noted that Trump's approval rating among Republicans (as depicted in the graphic at the top of this post) is 87%, which is well aligned with the political support other presidents have received from people in their same party.

#CA34 JUNE 6 RUN-OFF ELECTION SET BETWEEN JIMMY GOMEZ AND ROBERT LEE AHN
Previously I analyzed the race to replace Xavier Becerra as the United States representative for the 34th Congressional District of California. I also voted in the April 4 election by absentee ballot. The top two finishers were Assemblymember Jimmy Gomez and former Los Angeles City Planning Commissioner Robert Lee Ahn. One of these two will be elected as a Congressmember on June 6, 2017. Ahn, 41, raised the most money but Gomez, 42, received the most votes.

JUSTICE NEIL GORSUCH JOINED THE SUPREME COURT AND HIS FIRST VOTE ALLOWS ARKANSAS TO KILL
Neil Gorsuch is now the newest member of the United States Supreme Court. His very first vote was on Monday night, in the case of McGehee v. Hutchinson, which was in a death penalty case out of Arkansas. In a 5-4 decision, Gorsuch's was the deciding vote which led to the execution of Ledell Lee. This was the first execution in the state of Arkansas in a dozen years. The state had intended to execute 8 men in 11 days but that plan is in doubt now, but they have "successfully" killed at least one man.

BOOK REVIEW: 11/22/63 by Stephen King

I'm excited that I have finally finished my first Stephen King book (speed reading my sister's copy of Carrie when we were both teenagers doesn't count).

Anyway, I'm not a big fan of horror so I have generally stayed away from Mr. King's work previously.

However the premise of 11/22/63 fascinated me (someone goes back in time to try and stop the John F. Kennedy assassination) and even though I was a bit daunted by the size of the book I put it on my amazon wish list around Christmas time and was happy when it arrived.

11/22/63 is about a lot more than just time travel, but as a time travel novel it succeeds quite extraordinarily.

But 11/22/63 also succeeds as a love story, a thriller and as social commentary (about the 1950s and 1960s in America). I appreciated the fact that the protagonist gets sent back to 1958 and although there is a lot he likes, he also notices that for people who are not cis heterosexual white males like him, life in the 1950s was not so great (racism, antisemitism, homophobia, antediluvian attitudes about contraception and sexual activity are all brought up during the course of the novel). Maybe since a lot of the story takes place as the main character works as a teacher and I'm a teacher it strongly appealed to me, but I don't think so. I think this book has a pretty universal appeal.

It's definitely a bit slower than it needs to be but it also succeeds on its own terms and it totally deserves its excellent ratings by oodles and oodles of people on Goodreads. If someone understands the ending could they please explain it to me, especially the stuff about the various (Yellow, Red, Green and Ochre) card-carrying guys at the time portal. Even without that, I am glad that I read the book. I'm aware that Hulu has made a series based on the book starring James Franco but I don't feel like I need to see another version of the book.

This was the first Stephen King book I had read but is certainly not be my last! I don't think I'm going to run out and read The Dark Tower stuff (which is supposed to be a tale of epic fantasy). I have already read the Bill Hodges trilogy (Mr. Mercedes, Finders Keepers and End of Watch), which I enjoyed tremendously since it is in the mystery-thriller genre. I look forward to reading books by Mr. King in some of my other favorite genres.

Title: 11/22/63.
Author: Stephen King.
Paperback: 880 pages.
Publisher: Gallery Books.
Date Published: July 24, 2012.
Date Read: July 2, 2015.

GOODREADS RATING: **** (4.5/5.0).

OVERALL GRADE: A- (3.67/4.0).

PLOT: A-.
IMAGERY: B+.
IMPACT: A-.
WRITING: A

#OTD 10 YEARS AGO: Barack Obama Announces Presidential Bid

On this date 10 years ago, on February 10, 2007 Barack Obama, United States Senator from Illinois, announced his presidential bid at the state capitol in Springfield.

CELEBRITY FRIDAY: President Trump Nominates Neil Gorsuch for #SCOTUS

President Donald Trump nominated 10th Circuit Appellate Court judge Neil Gorsuch, 49(!) to the United States Supreme Court on Tuesday January 31st.

The New York Times reports:

While he has not written extensively on several issues of importance to many conservatives, including gun control and gay rights, Judge Gorsuch has taken strong stands in favor of religious freedom, earning him admiration from the right. 

In two prominent cases, both of which reached the Supreme Court, he sided with employers who had religious objections to providing some forms of contraception coverage to their female workers. 

He voted in favor of Hobby Lobby Stores, a family-owned company that objected to regulations under the Affordable Care Act requiring many employers to provide free contraception coverage. Similarly, he dissented from a decision not to rehear a ruling requiring the Little Sisters of the Poor, an order of nuns, to comply with an aspect of the regulations. 

The Supreme Court ruled in favor of Hobby Lobby in 2014 and vacated the decision concerning the Little Sisters of the Poor in 2016.

And so it goes.

SATURDAY POLITICS: Obama (2009) versus Obama (2016)

This is how President Obama has aged between his first press conference in 2009 and the one he gave yesterday (which might be his last as President). Gotta wonder how Donald Trump will look in a few years after he has been president for awhile, huh?

Hat/tip Political Wire

GODLESS WEDNESDAY: FFRF Full Page NYT Ad On First Amendment

The Freedom From Religion Foundation has a full page ad in tomorrow's New York Times (in honor of Bill of Rights day) with the provocative(?) headline "Don't Let The Religious Right Trump The First Amendment" with a picture of Indiana Governor (and Vice-President Elect) Mike Pence and a portrait of Founding Father (former President) James Madison. The advertisement also includes the statement "The framers of our secular constitution knew the only wall we need is between church and state." MadProfessah is a proud member of FFRF so I am happy to publicize this effort of promoting "free-thinking."

hat/tip to Friendly Atheist

4 Days After #ElectionDay: Clinton 228, Trump 290. MI(16),NH(4) Uncalled!

It is now 4 days after Election Day and the full results in the presidential election are still not known. Donald Trump is the president-elect of the United States because he has won more vote in enough states to claim more than 270 electoral votes. However, Hillary Clinton now leads by over  600,000 votes in the popular vote total; this is expected to swell to over 1 million by the time California certifies its results in December. Currently, they have only tabulated roughly 9 million votes in a state where 12 million people votes in 2012 and Clinton leads 2-to-1.

Since I blogged last on Wednesday, Arizona (11 electoral votes) was called definitively for Trump on Friday even though he won there relatively handily 49-44 in what used to be thought of as a non-swing state. In Michigan, Trump leads by roughly 13,000 votes out of 4.7 million votes cast. In New Hampshire (4 electoral votes) Clinton, is ahead by a narrow total of 2528 votes out of 700,000 cast. The U.S. Senate race in New Hampshire (which, at an estimated total of $100 million spent, was the most expensive of the year) was decided in Governor Maggie Hassan's favor over incumbent Kelly Ayotte by a mere 743 votes! Ayotte has surprisingly conceded the race without requesting a recount.

Stay tuned!

2016 ELECTION: Trump 279, Clinton 228. AZ(11),MI(16),NH(4) Uncalled

Donald Trump was elected 45th President of the United States  last night this morning when Pennsylvania and Wisconsin were called for the GOP candidate, eliminating Hillary Clinton's path to 270 electoral votes, as Trump surpassed that threshold.. Like in 2000, the Democratic candidate will win the popular vote, but lose in the electoral college. The 27 electoral votes of Arizona (11) and Michigan (16), New Hampshire (4) are still close to call but Trump is leading there. He also won a rare electoral college vote in the North East by wining Maine's 2nd congressional district.

Today is #ElectionDay! Clinton 0.716, Trump 0.284

Today is (finally!) election day in America. The final 538.com election prediction has a 71.6% chance of winning for Clinton-Kaine and a 28.4% chance of winning for Trump-Pence. This is slightly up from previous days in the last week, when 3 days ago Trump's chances of becoming president were just above 35%. All will be revealed tonight!

1 Day Until #ElectionDay: Clinton 0.658, Trump 0.342

Tomorrow is Election Day! With 1 day of the 2016 presidential race remaining, Clinton-Kaine have a 65.8% chance of winning, while Trump-Pence have a 34.2% chance of success, according to 538.com.

2 Days Until #ElectionDay: Clinton 0.649, Trump 0.35

Today's snapshot of the 538.com probability of who will win the election on Tuesday November 8th is being posted late because I travelled from Los Angeles to Washington, D.C. The current numbers are Clinton-Kaine 64.9% and Trump-Pence 35%, which are essentially unchanged from yesterday but very different from what they were 2 weeks ago.

3 Days Until #ElectionDay : Clinton 0.647, Trump 0.352

4 Days Until #ElectionDay: Clinton 0.684, Trump 0.315

Source: FiveThirtyEight.com

5 Days Until #ElectionDay: Clinton 0.669, Trump 0.331

Source: FiveThirtyeight.com

6 Days Until #ElectionDay: Clinton 0.707, Trump 0.292

Source: FiveThrtyEight.com