Showing posts with label Djokovic-Nadal rivalry. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Djokovic-Nadal rivalry. Show all posts

Friday, November 15, 2019

2019 ATP YEC: Federer-Tsitsipas, Thiem-Zverev Are Semis As Djokovic and Nadal Are Eliminated



The semifinals at the Nitto ATP Finals are now set: Roger Federer will face Stefanos Tsitsipas while Dominic Thiem versus 2018 champion Alexander Zverev. Both the World #1 Rafael Nadal and World #2 Novak Djokovic were eliminated via different paths in the last two days.
In a blockbuster showdown between Federer and Djokovic (their 49th career meeting) for the semifinal slot, Federer shocked Djokovic by defeating his rival in straight sets 6-4 6-3 to bring their head to head of 23-26 in favor of Djokovic. Interestingly, the result of this match also decided the World #1 race for 2019. Nadal claimed his 5th yearly World #1 (2019, 2017, 2013, 2010, 2008), matching the other members of the trivalry: Djokovic (2018, 2015, 2014, 2012, 2011) and Federer (2009, 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004). The significance of the Federer-Djokovic match was set up after Dominic Thiem beat Djokovic in one of the best matches of the year: 6-7(5) 6-3 7-6(5). Thiem's victory meant that Djokovic wouldn't gain undefeated ranking points in the ATP Finals, thus making his task to reach the #1 spot that much more difficult.

In fact this year's ATP Finals was one of the most thrilling in years. In addition to Thiem-Djokovic and Federer-Djokovic there was another notable match in Medvedev-Nadal. Medvedev was up in the third set 1-5 3-40 on Nadal's serve and the Russian twice served for the match at 5-2 and 5-4 but eventually he lost in a third set tiebreak. Other important wins were Zverev's first win over Nadal and Tsitsipas's first win over Medvedev. In the end, despite winning two matches in the round robin round (both 3 set victories, against Medvedev and Tsitsipas) Nadal was eliminated when Zverev defeated Medvedev in straight sets, claiming the final semifinal slot to join Thiem, Federer and Tsitsipas.

MadProfessah's prediction: Federer d. Tsitsipas and Thiem d. Zverev.

Tuesday, September 10, 2019

2019 US OPEN: Nadal Wins 19th Slam, 4th US Open Title


As I predicted, Rafael Nadal won the 2019 US Open title, by defeating Daniil Medvedev in a surprisingly tight 7-5 6-3 5-7 6-4 6-3 in nearly 5 hours. This is Nadal's 19th major title (1 Australian Open, 12 French Open, 2 Wimbledon, 4 US Open), putting him just one behind Roger Federer's total of 20 and increasing his lead over Novak Djokovic's 16.

Sunday, July 14, 2019

2019 WIMBLEDON: Djokovic Outlasts Federer in 5-hour, 5-set Thriller to Win 16th Major






In one of the most exciting matches since the classic 2008 Wimbledon final, Novak Djokovic outlasted 8-time Wimbledon champion Roger Federer 7-6(5), 1-6, 7-6(4), 4-6, 13-12(3) in a match which lasted nearly five hours ad featured the very first ever 5th set deciding tiebreaker (at 12-all). For the 3rd time in a major grand slam match (following the 2010 US Open semifinal and 2011 US Open semifinal) Djokovic saved double match point and went on to win. Federer broke Djokovic at 8-all and was serving 9-8, 40-15 but was unable to win either of the points thanks to Djokovic's excellent serving (and Federer's own nervousness). This was particularly curious because the Swiss great had an amazing serving day with 25 aces (including one at 30-15 in that all important 18th game of the 5th set). Even though my prediction that Federer would win did not pan out, I feel good that my belief that Federer would confound critics (who gave Djokovic the edge) was very nearly correct.

In fact, in most aspects Federer was the better player for most of the match. He broke Djokovic twice in both of the sets he won while his serve was only broken three times: up 5-2 in the fourth set, early in the fifth set and up 9-8 in the fifth set (but two of those times were when he was serving to close out the set). Federer had 40 more winners (94 to 54) and only 10 more errors (62 to 52) than Djokovic. Often times Federer has difficukty converting breakpoint chances in big matches, but he won 7 out of 13 while Djokovic only won 3 of 8. The big problem was the 3 tioebreaks they played where every point is essentially a breakpoint. There Federer played his riskiest tennis and it generally did not pay off. That basically was the match. The third set tiebreak Federer was up 5-3 when he made some uncharacteristic forehand errors and ended up losing four points in a row and the pivotal 3rd set.

Significance of Today's Result
With his win, Djokovic improves to 26-22 over Federer head-to-head and is now only 2 majors behind Nadal's 18  who is only 2 behind Federer's 20. He has now beaten the best grass-court player of all time in three  Wimbledon finals (2014, 2015 and 2019). Federer's major final record falls to 20-11 while Djokovic's record improves to 16-9. Federer has now played 12 Wimbledon finals and won 8.

Sunday, June 09, 2019

2019 FRENCH OPEN: Men's Final Preview (and Semifinals Review)


This is my prediction post for the 2019 French Open men's final. Last year I correctly predicted that Rafael Nadal  would defeat Dominic Thiem This year I predicted 1 of 2 men's semifinals correctly2 of 2 women's semifinals correctly0 of 4 women's quarterfinals correctly and 4 of 4 men's quarterfinals correctly


 MEN'S SEMIFINALS REVIEW


Rafael Nadal (ESP) [2] d. Roger Federer (SUI) [3] 6-3 6-4 6-2. This was the 39th meeting between the two tennis greats and despite Federer's improved backhand the result on clay was what was expected--an unsuspenseful win by Nadal, bringing his head to head lead back up to 24-15. The match was greatly affected by the weather as the wind was extremely high. Nadal was able to play more of his game in the weather than Federer was and was able to break Federer early in all 3 sets. (In the second set the break was a break-back which effectively ended Federer's chances to make the  match competitive.)

Dominc Thiem (AUT) [4] d. Novak Djokovic (SRB) [1] 6-2 3-6 7-5 5-7 7-5. This match was played over two days and was disrupted by weather multiple times. Thiem's win was quite a surprise, because Djokovic had won 26 consecutive grand slam matches. However, since Thiem had beaten Djokovic at this stage in the tournament before it was not out of the question it would happen again. It signals a significant breakthrough for the post-trivalry generation of another player under 30 reaching their second major final and signals that at some point in future the Prince of Clay may become the king.


 MEN'S FINAL PREVIEW

This is a reprise of last year's final which was easily won by Nadal. Since then, these two have played an epic 5-set match at the U.S. Open which was also won by Nadal, despite Thiem winning the first set 6-0! It's hard to see any other result beside Nadal winning his 12th French Open, but I think atleast the match will be extended to either four or five sets. PREDICTION: Nadal.

Friday, June 07, 2019

2019 FRENCH OPEN: Men's Semifinals Preview


Here are my predictions for the women's semifinals at the 2019 French Open I have also predicted the women's semifinals. This year I predicted 0 of 4 women's quarterfinals correctly and 4 of 4 men's quarterfinals correctly. Last year I predicted 2 of 2 men's semifinals correctly and 2 of 2 women's semifinals correctly.


Novak Djokovic (SRB) [1] vs Dominic Thiem (AUT) [4]

 Unlike the women's tournament, where there will be a first-time grand slam winner and there are two unseeded teenage players in the semifinals, the men's tournament features a player in his 4th consecutive Roland Garros semifinal, and he's the least accomplished player of the quarter remaining in the draw! This is the 8th meeting between Djokovic and Thiem and the 15-time major champion leads 6-2, including 3-2 on clay. But Thiem beat Djokovic in the semifinal round here 2 years ago in straight sets, when Djokovic was close to his nadir. However, the World #1 has now won 26 Grand Slam matches in a row and there's pretty good chance that he will win his second career Nole Slam on Sunday. Such a feat would cement his status as the future G.O.A.T, ahead of his two contemporaries in the golden "trivalry" of Federer-Nadal-Djokovic. Only the Prince of Clay stands in his way from a potential (record!) 55th meeting with Nadal in the final of Roland Garros on Sunday, the most difficult feat in tennis, one that he has accomplished once before. It's hard to bet against him, and I wouldn't. Mad Professah's pick: Djokovic.

Rafael Nadal (ESP) [2] vs Roger Federer (SUI) [3] 
Well here we are! After skipping the clay for the last three years in the second wind of his career to concentrate on winning Wimbledon, Federer surprised the tennis world by agreeing to play the clay season. I agree with most observers who think this will probably be the last time we see Federer play on clay, and this is one reason he is happy to have made the semifinals (and the concomitant ranking points) as well as this last opportunity to meet Rafa on clay, where he has lost 13 of 15 matches the two have played.  Interestingly, this semifinal result is the best Federer has had in the last four slams, having lost in the fourth round in Australia (to Stefanos Tsitsipas) and New York (to John Millman) and the quarterfinal (to Kevin Anderson). Presumably, he expects his results in the next four slams to be decidedly better as he prepares to retire after the Tokyo Olympics (as he chases the elusive Singles Gold medal). This Federer-Nadal XXXIX or #Fedal39 and even though Federer has won the last 5 meetings against Nadal (bringing the head-to-head deficit to only 15-23 thanks to a tennis racquet with a larger head and a more forceful and aggressive topspin backhand) the matchup has never been great for the Swiss Maestro, especially on clay. I would love for Federer to win this match, but I find it hard to even see him winning a set, frankly. And I'm okay with that. I wish the draw had been different and Thiem was in Federer's half and Nadal in Djokovic's. Then I would think there's a VERY good chance of a Federer-Djokovic final. This year, I don't think that's gonna happen. Mad Professah's pick: Nadal.

Monday, June 03, 2019

2019 FRENCH OPEN: Men's Quarterfinals Preview (and Predictions)


Here are my predictions for the men's quarterfinals at the 2019 French Open I will also predict the women's quarterfinals. Last year I predicted 3 of 4 men's quarterfinals correctly and 4 of 4 women's quarterfinals correctly.

Novak Djokovic (SRB) [1] vs Alexander Zverev (GER) [5].  Djokovic has yet to lose a set  at this year's tournament and now has an amazing 25 match winning streak at Grand Slams as he goes for his second career "Nole Slam." He is going for his thirty-fifth major semifinal, while his opponent is going for his first. Interestingly, Zverev has an even head-to-head from the four matches the two have played, which is notable because while there are only 80 players who have played at least 4 matches with Djokovic only one person has a winning record (Andy Roddick!) If Zverev does win the match tomorrow, he would be in rarefied company. But  I don't think that's going to happen. Mad Professah's pick: Djokovic.

Dominic Thiem (AUT) [4] vs Juan Martin del Potro (ARG) [8] Karen Khachanov (RUS) [10] Last year's finalist Dominic Thiem has been surprisingly vulnerable at this year's tournament, losing a set in every match he played except the latest one, which was a mind-numbingly routine win over an in-form Gael Monfils who had not lost a set getting to the fourth round and then could not win a single one against Thiem. In fact, Monfils has never won a set against Thiem and has given him a walkover win twice in the 8 matches they have been scheduled to play. Khachanov is a NextGen player who reached his first major quarterfinal by outlasting a mildly injured Juan Martin del Potro. Interestingly, Khachanov and Thiem have only played once before and the younger player has the win, and it occurred in Paris last year, while Khachanov was winning the Paris Masters title in the Fall. In fact, Khachanov is on a 10-match winning streak in Paris, so that should give him some confidence, but I don't think it will prevent Thiem getting to the Roland Garros semifinals for  the fourth consecutive year. Mad Professah's pick: Thiem.

Roger Federer (SUI) [3] vs Stefanos Tsitsipas (GRE) [6] Stan Wawrinka (SUI) [23]. Wawrinka played the best match of the tournament, and probably the year with Stefanos Tsitsipas, a 5-hour-9-minute, 5-set match in the round of 16. Wawrinka is a 3-time major champion, including winning the 2015 French Open which is where he took out Roger Federer in the quarterfinal on his way to winning the title that year after Djokovic eliminated the King of Clay in the quarterfinals. These two Swiss players have met 25 times on the tour and Federer has an imposing 22-3 lead. However all 3 win by Wawrinka have occurred on clay, but Federer still has an overall 4-3 lead on the surface and 6-1 in majors (although only one of  their matches has gone to 5 sets, which was one by Federer on his way to winning the 2017 Australian Open). Is that a presage of the result in this match? Mad Professah's pick: Federer.

Rafael Nadal (ESP) [2] vs Kei Nishikori (JPN) [7]. Two of Nishikori's four matches here have been 5 sets while Nadal has only dropped a single set in 4 matches, with numerous breadsticks and bagels handed out. Nishikori has 2 wins (compared to 10 losses) against Nadal, but neither of the wins have been on clay or in 5 sets. Nadal's record at Roland Garros is 90-2. It doesn't seem likely that one of these very historic results will happen against Nishikori. Mad Professah's pick: Nadal.

Tuesday, May 14, 2019

TENNIS TUESDAY: Big 3 Are All Top 3; Tsitsipas Beats Nadal; Djokovic Wins Madrid; Kiki Beats Halep


THE BIG THREE (DJOKOVIC, NADAL, FEDERER) ARE ATOP THE ATP RANKINGS AGAIN
The big 3 first occupied the Top 3 spots at the top of the rankings on July 9, 2007 (when Djokovic joined Nadal and Federer). Last week, Federer returned to the Top 3 where Djokovic and Nadal were holding down the two top spots. Together the three players account for an astonishing 792 weeks at #1, with Federer owning the record 310 weeks, followed by Djokovic with 251 and Nadal with 196.

TSITSIPAS BEATS NADAL IN MADRID SF, OWNS WINS OVER BIG 3 AT AGE 20!
The Madrid Masters ended with Rafael Nadal suffering his 3rd consecutive semifinal loss in a clay court tournament in 2019. He lost to Fabio Fognini (in straight sets) in Barcelona, to Dominic Thiem in Monte Carlo and he lost to Stefanos Tsitsipas in Madrid! This is the first time since 2004 that Nadal has reached this point in the season without having won a title. His last chance at a clay title will be Rome, where both World #1 Djokovic and (surprisingly!)  World #3 Federer are also playing. The key take-away from Madrid though is despite being just 20-years-old Tsitsipas already has wins over all of the members of the trivalry and is up to World #7 in the rankings. He beat Federer in the 4th round of the 2019 Australian Open, he beat Nadal in Madrid and he beat Djokovic in Montreal last summer.

KIKI BEATS SIMO TO WIN MADRID; RISES TO WORLD #4
Surprisingly, Kiki Bertens became the first player to ever win the Madrid Open without dropping a set when she defeated 2-time champion (2016 & 2017) Simona Halep 6-4 6-4. Bertens had lost the final last year to Petra Kvitova but she has had some of her best results in her career in the last year, including a win over Venus Williams at Wimbledon. With the biggest title of her career she becomes the highest ranked Dutch player ever, rising to World #4 this week!

DJOKOVIC RETURNS TO FORM WITH WINS OVER THIEM & TSITSIPAS TO WIN MADRID MASTERS
For the first time this year, the person who beat Nadal on clay did not win the tournament. Less than 24 hours after beating Nadal, Tsitsipas had to face Djokovic in the final, and was fairly easily dismissed, 6-3 6-4. Djokokic had more trouble in the semifinals against Dominic Thiem, whome he defeated in two tiebreak sets despite being down a service break in both sets! With his win, the World #1 cements his place at the top of the rankings, especially considering he has won the last three major tournaments in a row and now has tied Nadal with 33 Masters shields. Federer lags behind with 28.

FEDERER HITS 1200 WIN MILESTONE; DECIDES TO PLAY ROME
Roger Federer hit another career milestone by winning his 1200 match in Madrid (by coming from behind to beat Gael Monfils). After losing a tight 3-set match to Dominic Thiem (despite holding two match points) he decided to play Rome for the first time since 2016.

Sunday, January 27, 2019

2019 AUS OPEN: Djokovic Wins 15th Major, Record 7th Aussie Title





As expected, World #1 Novak Djokovic defeated World #2 Rafael Nadal to win his record 7th Australian Open title, his 15th major and 3rd consecutive. This was the pair's 53rd meeting 8th in a major final and Nadal's first straight sets loss 6-3 6-2 6-3 ever in a major final. Djokovic had an astonishing 9 unforced errors in 3 sets (26 games) to Nadal's 28. Djokovic is now 7-0 in Australian Open finals and 15-9 in major finals, compared to Roger Federer's 20-10 and Nadal's 17-8 records.

Many people had predicted Djokovic would win, but no one predicted that he would demolish his rival so completely. The last time they played in the Australian Open finals, 7 years ago in 2012, the match was a 5-set classic that lasted nearly 6 hours! The win places Djokovic just two behind Nadal and now 5 behind Federer, and gives him another chance at the Nole Slam if he wins the French Open this year, which is very possible, if not likely.

2019 AUS OPEN: Men's Final Preview (and Semifinals Review)


Novak Djokovic (SRB) [1] vs. Rafael Nadal (ESP) [2]

This is my prediction post for the 2019 Australian Open men's final. Last year I correctly predicted that Roger Federer would beat Marin Cilic in the 2018 Aussie Open men's final.  This year I have correctly predicted 3 of 4 women's quarterfinals4 of 4 men's quarterfinals2 of 2 men's semifinals and 2 of 2 women's semifinals. I also incorrectly predicted the winner of the 2019 Aussie Open women's final between Naomi Osaka and Petra Kvitova.

MEN'S SEMIFINALS REVIEW

Novak Djokovic (SRB) [1] d. Lucas Pouille (FRA) [28] 6-0 6-2 6-2. This match demonstrated that the World #1 is playing at a very high level. Pouille is a very good player who although previously had not had very much success in Melbourne in this years tournament he beat Borna Coric and Milos Raonic.

Rafael Nadal (ESP) [2] d. Stefanos Tsitsipas (GRK) [14] 6-2 6-4 6-0. The 21-year-old Greek phenomenon who dispatched 2-time defending champion Roger Federer in four sets really thought that he had a good chance to win against Rafa Nadal and the legendary Spaniard gave the youngster a master class instead. It's pretty unusual to have 6-0 sets in major semifinals (since both players have made it through 5 rounds of play to make it to this level) so it is significant that both Djokovic and Nadal were able to do this to their opponents this year.

MEN'S FINALS PREVIEW

This is the record 53rd meeting between Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal, and their 8th meeting in a major fnal (Nadal  leads 4-3) while Djokovic leads their overall head-to-head 27-25. The two have played an Australian Open final before, in 2012, and Djokovic prevailed in a nearly 6-hour marathon that left both combatants doubled over in pain during the trophy presentation afterwards. Djokovic has won the Australian Open title 6 times and currently has 14 majors, just 3 behind Nadal's 17 majors (just 1 in Australia and 4 on hard courts). He has also won the last two majors contested (2018 US Open and 2018 Wimbledon) so is on a 20-match grand slam winning streak.  Many people say that Nadal has looked amazing all tournament, and he has not dropped a set reaching the final, but Djokovic has actually spent slightly less time on court (due to a disappointing second set retirement by Kei Nishikori in their quarterfinal match). It should be an amazing matchup, hopefully as high quality as their showdown in the Wimbledon semifinals was last year, where both players were at their best simultaneously. I feel like that if both players are playing their best tennis in Melbourne then Djokovic will come away the winner. MadProfessah's pick: Djokovic.

Thursday, January 24, 2019

2019 AUS OPEN: Men's Semifinals Preview




Here are my predictions for the men's semifinals at the 2019 Australian Open. Last year I correctly predicted 2 of 2 women's semifinals and 2 of 2 men's semifinalsThis year I have correctly predicted 3 of 4 women's quarterfinals and  correctly predicted 4 of 4 men's quarterfinals.

Novak Djokovic (SRB) [1] vs Lucas Pouille (FRA) [28].  World #1 Novak Djokovic had a mismatch with Kei Nishikori to reach his seventh semifinal in Melbourne while Lucas Pouille is playing in his first major semifinal of his career. In fact, Pouille was 0-5 at the Australian Open and has now won 5 matches in a  row at the tournament. Surprisingly, the two have never met on tour so  there's no head-to-head influence a prediction here. There's no question that Pouille could beat Djokovic, but will he? Very unlikely. In fact, Djokovic has always won the title in Melbourne (six so far) when he reaches this level of the tournament. Mad Professah's pick: Djokovic.

Stefanos Tsitsipas (GRE) [14] vs Rafael Nadal (ESP) [2]. 20-year-old Stefanos Tsitsipas has already had a dramatic impact on the tournament by defeating 2-time defending champion Roger Federer in the 4th round. He was able to follow up that huge win without a letdown by defeating Roberto Bautista Agut in the quarterfinal. Because of that he has to face 17-time major champion Rafael Nadal, who took out another #NextGen player in Francis Tiafoe in the quarterfinal. The two have already played twice and Nadal won both matches, relatively easily in 2018. Even though Tstsipas is already better than he was last year, I still don't see how anyone prevents another Djokovic-Nadal final. Mad Professah's pick: Nadal.

Sunday, September 09, 2018

2018 US OPEN: Djokovic Wins 14th Major (defeating del Potro)





Surprising some, Novak Djokovic won the 2018 U.S. Open men's singles title by defeating Juan Martin del Potro 6-3 7-6(4) 6-3. With this win Djokovic has jump started hisyear by winning two majors, Wimbledon and the U.S. Open, and brought his career total to 14 majors, tying Pete Sampras at #3 on the all-time list, behind Rafael Nadal at 17 and Roger Federer at 20. Since he is 31, Nadal is 32 and Federer is 37 the Serb has a reasonable chance of ending his career with more majors than the Spaniard, and may even catch the Swiss's total. His partisans note that, right now, he has a head-to-head advantage of 24-22 over Federer, 27-25 over Nadal and 25-11 over Andy Murray and 19-5 over Stan Wawrinka.

Could these two consecutive major title wins be the first half of a second Nole slam (to be completed in 2019)?

Sunday, July 15, 2018

2018 WIMBLEDON: Men's Final Preview (and Semifinals Review)


Novak Djokovic (SRB) [12] vs Kevin Anderson (RSA) [8]
Here are my predictions for the women's final at the Wimbledon Championships for 2018. This year I correctly predicted 2 of 4 men's quarterfinals, correctly predicted 4 of 4 women's quarterfinals, 1 of 2 men's semifinals and 2 of 2 women's semifinals. Last year I incorrectly predicted Venus Williams would defeat Garbine Muguruza. 


MEN'S SEMIFINALS REVIEW

Kevin Anderson (RSA) [8] d. John Isner (USA) [9] 7-6(6) 6-7(5) 6-7(9) 6-4 26-24At 6 hours 36 minutes, this was the longest match ever played on Wimbledon's Centre Court and the second longest grand slam match of all time, exceeded only by the ridiculous 11-hour, 3-day ordeal Isner survived against Nicolas Mahut back in 2010 (winning 70-68 in the 5th set). After outlasting 8-time Wimbledon champion Roger Federer 13-11 in the fifth set Anderson maintained his composure for the second round in a row and this time won 26-24! This was quite an amazing mental performance because most players who have beaten Federer at Wimbledon have gone on to lose their next match. (In fact, this is one reason why I picked Isner to win.) One must spare a thought for John Isner who was trying to reach his first major final, and now in addition to the infamous 70-68 win he will be known for the 26-24 loss. Maybe he will be responsible for the implementation of the Isner rule, which leads to some kind of terminating mechanism for decisive sets in the majors, especially Wimbledon. I would endorse some kind of tiebreak (I would suggest it should be a 10-point match tiebreak) that would occur qt either 6-all or 9-all or even 12-all. But there must be a rule change to prevent 3 hour final sets.

Novak Djokovic (SRB) [12] d. Rafael Nadal (ESP) [2] 6-4 3-6 7-6(9) 3-6 10-8. This was a very high quality match that lasted 5 hours 15 minutes played over 2 days. Since it was the second match one after the Isner-Anderson marathon there was no way that it could be completed on men's semifinal Friday. The competitors showed why the 52-match Nadal-Djokovic rivalry is even more compelling than the Federer-Nadal and Federer-Djokovic rivalries. Djokovic extends his lead to 27-25 against Nadal, one of the very few players on tour who have a head-to-head lead against Nadal after more than 4 meetings. One of the key moments of this match was the 3rd set tiebreaker. Winning the 3rd set is always important in  a 5-set match but in this match the player who won the 3rd set would know they would be able to go to sleep with a lead until the match resumed the next day. Djokovic had to save 3 set points in that tiebreaker before he was able to close it out 11-9. The fifth set was an amazing, tension-filled, high-quality affair. Djokovic had to save five breakpoints during the course of the deciding set. With the advantage of serving first, those breakpoints were not match points. It was not until the 16th game that Nadal finally was forced to save a match/break point which he did with an astonishingly gutsy drop shot winner. He had previously escaped two  or three 0-30 deficits but then in the 18th game of the 5th set he was unable to do it again and slipped (literally) to go down 0-40 and lose his serve and the match. 


MEN'S FINAL P
REVIEW

Djokovic can exult that it appears as if he has returned to his old form, as evinced by his ability to defeat Nadal in a tough 5-set match. His reward is that he has an excellent opportunity to continue to add to his haul of major titles. From 2011-2016 Djokovic won 11 of 22 majors but he had not even reached a final since. If he beats Anderson in the championship match (where he is the prohibitive favorite after the South African survived two consecutive ultra-long matches in the last 4 days) Djokovic will get to 13 major titles, which is only 4 behind Nadal and 7 behind Federer. There's still a possibility that if he returns to the level which earned him 4 the Nole slam in June 2016 he could exceed Federer's major total before his retirement. Most people are not giving Anderson any chance to win but I am not one of them. I think it will be closer than people think, and I would not be surprised if Anderson wins a single set, probably because I think there will be a tiebreaker or two. Anderson will be surprised by the number of his serves that are returned into play, and its hard to imagine his movement will be even 50% of its usual level as a result of the extended time he has spent on court this fortnight, which should be dispositive.

MadProfessah's pick: Djokovic.

Friday, July 13, 2018

2018 WIMBLEDON: Men's Semifinals Preview (and Predictions)


Here are my predictions for the men's semifinals at the Wimbledon Championships for 2018. This year I correctly predicted 2 of 4 men's quarterfinals and correctly predicted 4 of 4 women's quarterfinals. Last year I correctly predicted 2 of 2 men's semifinals and 2 of 2 women's semifinals. I also predicted this year's women's semifinals.

Roger Federer (SUI) [1] Kevin Anderson (RSA) [8] vs John Isner (USA) [9].  Things were going so well for the 8-time major champion Roger Federer in the tournament right before he was shockingly dismissed in a 5-set thriller, losing 13-11 in the decider. He had equaled his record of 34 consecutive sets won after taking the first two sets of his match with Kevin Anderson, who had never won a set against him, and he sported a 266-2 record in majors when up 2-0. However, somehow Anderson maintained his composure and won the last 3 sets and the match, to reach his first Wimbledon semifinal. There he will face a familiar opponent, John Isner who will also be playing in his first Wimbledon semifinal which is also his first major final. Isner has not had his serve broken through 5 matches, the best of any of the semifinalists. Of course this means that he has played a lot of tiebreakers in this tournament, but Isner plays a lot of tiebreaks in every tournament. At age 33, Isner is clearly playing the best tennis of his career. And instead of facing the best grasscourt player of all time to reach a major final, he will face Anderson, someone with whom he has a 8-to-3 head-to-head lead. There's also the statistic that the last 3 people to beat Federer before the final went on to lose their next match (Raonic in 2016, Stakhovsky in 2013 and Tsonga in 2011). Aderson is serious enough that I believe this will be at least a 4-set match and *probably* not a reprise of Isner's 70-68 match with Mahut, but there are going to be a LOT of aces between the two, and not a lot of rallies. PREDICTION: Isner.

Rafael Nadal (ESP) [2] vs. Novak Djokovic (SRB) [12]. Although the Federer-Nadal rivalry is more heralded, but the Djokovic-Nadal rivalry is at least as significant to men's tennis. The two have played 51 times and Djokovic leads 26-25. But this doesn't tell the entire story because they have met 13 times at majors and Nadal leads 9-4. Nadal-Djokovic LII is happening in the semifinals of Wimbledon, where Djokovic is a 3-time champion (he has never lost a final here, even despite playing Federer twice!) and Nadal has won twice in 5 finals, with this year being the 10th anniversary of his very first win here (over Federer) in the Greatest Match of All Time. I am fairly confident whomever wins this semifinal will win the 2018 title over whomever wins the other semifinal. The real question that will be answered by the result of this match is whether Djokovic is back and ready to compete at the very top of men's tennis again. From the looks of things, that answer is yes. We know Nadal is already at the top of his game (after all he is the World #1 ranked player, and will probably end the year at #1 unless Djokovic manages to win both of the last two majors of the year or Federer wins in New York. Regardless, this should be a battle of epic proportions. PREDICTION: Djokovic.

Tuesday, May 16, 2017

TENNIS TUESDAY: Nadal 15-0 On 2017 Clay; Federer Withdraws From Roland Garros; Halep Defends Madrid Title


NADAL WINS MADRID FINAL; 30TH ATP MASTERS SHIELD; NOW 15-0 ON 2017 CLAY
Rafael Nadal, the King of Clay, is having another extraordinary clay court season this year. He won his 52nd career clay court title and 30th ATP Masters shield by extending his undefeated streak on clay by beating Dominic Thiem of Austria 7-6(8) 6-4 to win the Madrid Mutua Open. Nadal has now won his 5th title in Madrid and his 10th(!) title in Barcelona and Monte Carlo. Interestingly, Nadal notched up a win against Novak Djokovic on his way to the final, stopping a losing streak against the former World #1 and setting their head to head at 24W-26L.

NO CHANCE OF #FEDAL AT #RG17 AS ROGER PULLS OUT OF FRENCH OPEN
2017 Australian Open champion Roger Federer has finally confirmed what many of us suspected awhile ago after he won the Sunshine Double in March: The 18-time major champion would skip the entire clay court season to focus on the summer grass and hard court seasons. In a statement released on his website on Monday May 15th, he said "I need to recognize that scheduling will be the key to my longevity moving forward. Thus, my team and I concluded today that playing just one event on clay was not in the best interest of my tennis and physical preparation for the remainder of the season."

HALEP DEFENDS MADRID TITLE BY OUTLASTING KIKI MLADENOVIC
The hottest player on tour in 2017 is Kristina "Kiki" Mladenovic, who has reached 4 tournament finals this year (winning only 1). Simona Halep was pushed to a 3rd set against Kiki in final of the Madrid Open, eventually winning the deciding set 6-2, which was the Romanian's first defense of an important title. Halep's win means that she returns to the Top 5 in the rankings, while Mladenovic will rise to World #14.

KERBER REGAINS #1 RANKING, SERENA UNLIKELY TO BE #1 AGAIN IN 2017
Angelique Kerber has regained the #1 ranking by earning enough points in Madrid to surpass the total by Serena Williams. Since Serena is not playing any tournaments for the rest of the year it seems unlikely that she will be #1 ranked again in 2017, although it is possible that if Kerber does not defend the ranking points she earned in 2016 (US Open title and Wimbledon final) that the German's total may fall below Kerber's. However, it's possible that other players such as Karolina Pliskova (who currently leads the Race to Singapore), Halep or Dominika Cibulkova could reach #1 this year.

Saturday, May 13, 2017

2017 MADRID: Djokovic-Nadal L in Semifinals, To Face Thiem-Cuevas Winner


For a record fiftieth time, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic will face off against each other in an ATP tour tennis match. This time it is in the semifinals of the Mutua Madrid Ope, the Madrid Masters. Although this tournament is in the capital of Nadal's home country, he has under performed here, with only 4 titles here (compared to 10 on the clay courts of Barcelona and Monte Carlo) and an insane 9 titles at the clay-court major, Roland Garros in Paris.

Interestingly, Nadal now leads the tour in 2017 with match wins (32) and although Djokovic is higher ranked (World #2) and the defending champion here in Madrid, he has been having a very rough year, and recently fired his longtime coaching staff.

As a result of winning their last 7 meetings, Djokovic now leads his head to head with Nadal 26-23, one  of the very few people on tour who can say that. If Djokovic were to beat Nadal on clay, it will probably resuscitate his entire year. It is a widely anticipated match, but I give the edge to the Spanish King of Clay right now. But it will be a very tough battle.

MadProfessah's pick: Nadal in 3 sets.

Sunday, June 05, 2016

2016 FRENCH OPEN: Men's Final Preview (and Semifinals Review)

Novak Djokovic (SRB) [1] vs Andy Murray (GBR) [2]
This is my prediction post for the men's final at the 2016 French Open. Last year I did not predict that Stan Wawrinka would defeat Novak Djokovic to win his 2nd major title. This year I have correctly predicted 4 of 4 men's quarterfinals3 of 4 women's quarterfinals2 of 2 men's semifinals and 2 of 2 women's semifinals. (This year also I incorrectly predicted that Serena Williams would beat Garbine Muguruza in the women's final.

In this post I will review the mens semifinals and preview the men's final.

MEN'S SEMIFINALS REVIEW Novak Djokovic (SRB) [1] d. Dominic Thiem (AUT) [13] 6-2 6-1 6-4The 22-year-old Thiem has just broken into the elite of men's tennis by reaching his first major semifinal and is now a bonafide Top 10 player. However,  the World #1 gave him a stern lesson on the distance the Austrian needs to travel if he wants to challenge the man at the top of the rankings.  The result was basically never in doubt, despite Thiem playing quite well Djokovic just demonstrated just how much better he is than the entire rest of the field.

Andy Murray (GBR) [2] d. Stan Wawrinka (SUI) [3] 6-4 6-2 4-6 6-2. Murray had the much more difficult task, drawn in the same half as the defending champion Stan Wawrinka. Despite only having a slight 8-7 edge over the hard-hitting Swiss champion and having lost the last three meetings (including no wins on clay) I predicted that Murray would win this match. From watching the clay court season it was clear to me that Murray is now (at least) the second best clay-court player in the world, and he demonstrated that with his 4-set dismissal of Wawrinka. Murray becomes the 10th player to reach the finals of all four majors tournaments and becomes the first male British player since Fred Perry in 1938 to play in the final of Roland Garros.

MEN'S FINAL PREVIEW
Novak Djokovic (SRB) [1] vs. Andy Murray (GBR) [2]We have seen this match-up many times before. In fact, the Djokovic-Murray rivalry now includes 7 meetings in major finals, which is just one ahead of the all-time record of the eight Roger Federer-Rafael Nadal meetings in finals (Rafa leads 6-2). Djokovic leads their major finals (4-2) and their overall career head-to-head 23-10 and 3-1 on clay. It should be noted that these two met last year in the French Open semifinals and Djokovic won 6-1 in the fifth. In fact, in their recent history their matches have been long but the final set is often a blowout in favor of Djokovic.

Mentally, all the pressure should be on Djokovic. Not only is he trying to finally complete the career grand slam so that he can bolster his claim to the Greatest of all time title in the future, he is also trying to do something which has not been done since Rod Laver did it in1969: be the defending champion in all four majors simultaneously, i.e. complete the Nole slam. Last year, Serena completed her second Serena slam and it should be noted that Djokovic was one win away from completing a calendar slam. If he wins he will also move to 4th on the all-time list with 12, only behind  Federer's 17 and 2 behind Nadal and Laver's 14.

Murray would love to win a 3rd major title and I think it is definitely possible that he could do that. Can he somehow come out and play a mentally tough and tactically fearless match tomorrow and blow Djokovic off the court like Wawrinka did last year? Yes, it's possible but also unlikely. Instead I think that it is Djokovic's moment and he will deliver a win to take his place in the pantheon of the greats.

MadProfessah's pick: Djokovic.

Saturday, May 14, 2016

2016 ROME: Finals Are Djokovic-Murray XXXIII and Serena v Madison Keys


The finals of the 2016 Italian Open in Rome are now set. For the second week in a row, World #1 Novak Djokovic and World #3 Andy Murray will face off in a clay court final. Last week, Djokovic prevailed 6-2 3-6 6-3 to with the Mutua Madrid Open. This week, Djokovic extended his streak of wins over Rafael Nadal to 7 with a tight straight sets win in the quarterfinals 7-5 7-6(5) and now leads their head-to-head 26-23. Djokovic won a three-hour three-set thriller against Kei Nishikori in the semifinals to set up his 33rd career meeting with Murray. The other member of the Big Four, Roger Federer is currently recovering from an injury, and although he won his first match of the week against Young Gun Sascha Zverev he lost to another, Dominic Thiem, the very next round.
In the final, Djokovic, despite not playing his best, has reached another final, and could extend his lead in the record number of ATP Masters titles if he wins his 30th shield on Sunday, extending his undefeated streak against fellow Top 10 players to 14-0  for 2016.

MadProfessah's Pick: Djokovic.

On the women's side, the haphazard results of the seeds continues with  only Serena Williams, Garbine Muguruza and Svetlana Kuznetsova making it through to the quarters. Serena efficiently dispatched Sveta (losing only two games) and Muguruza made it to the semifinals, where she surprisingly lost to Madison Keys, who earlier in the week took out Petra Kvitova. Angie Kerber lost in the very first round, and neither Simona Halep nor Aggie Radwanska played Rome, but Radwanska will end up with the #2 seed at Roland Garros, despite the fact that Halep is the one who won Madrid last week! Serena is in her 4th Rome final, Keys is in her first. Serena has won 19 consecutive matches in Rome, but surprisingly has not won a title in 2016 yet. The last two times Keys won a title she went through two top 10 players to reach the final and she has done that here. But Serena hates to lose to other Americans, and hasn't done so in a final since the 2008 Wimbledon.

MadProfessah's pick: Serena.

Sunday, April 17, 2016

2016 MONTE CARLO: Nadal Outlasts Monfils To Win Record 9th Title Here


Rafael Nadal's drought maybe over. Taking advantage of the shocking departure of World #1 (and defending champion) Novak Djokovic earlier in the week, the King of Clay was able to win his 28th Masters series event and 9th Monte Carlo crown by outlasting a surprisingly solid Gael Monfils 7-5 5-7 6-0. Nadal had last won here in 2012.

The final came about when Jo-Wilfried Tsonga dispatched Roger Federer 6-4 in the 3rd set but then lost in straight sets to his countryman Monfils in the semifinals. Nadal, on the other hand, took out the reigning French Open champion Stan Wawrinka and World #2 Andy Murray (both in straight sets), in the quarterfinals and semifinals, respectively. It's been well over a year (maybe 2) since Nadal has put together a series of such strong performances in a row against Top 5 competition. Monfils was even more impressive, as he was the only player to not lose a set all week during his path to the final.

Monfils was playing in his 25th ATP tour final (Nadal's 100th) and trying to win his first ATP Masters Shield (and 6th career title). Instead, Nadal won his 68th career title and became the first player to win two different tournaments an incredible NINE different times (he has also won the clay-court grand slam Roland Garros 9 times). Both players are twenty-nine years old.

The two tour veterans put on one of the most entertaining finals of the year to date, sharing 34 breakpoints between them, in a contest which lasted 2 hours, 46 minutes. In the end, though, Monfils simply ran out of gas and Nadal was able to punish his erstwhile rival's lack of energy in the deciding set without conceding a game.

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