Saturday Politics: CA-44, AD-51, AD-50, AD-64, SD-33

It's been awhile since we had a Saturday Politics edition but there's been a lot of developments now that we are well into 2012 which is a year divisible by 4, otherwise known as a Presidential election year.

AD-51. In my home Assembly District my friend Luis Lopez is running for the Democratic nomination. Luis is openly gay and is well-known to LGBT activists as the co-founder of HONOR Pac and HONOR Fund, two Latino LGBT political organizations. What people may not know is that he was born in East L.A. and even though his mom died when he as 8, Luis went on to get degrees from Pomona and Harvard after attending public schools. Recently, many Los Angeles-area Democratic organizations have been having endorsement meetings for the June 2012 statewide primary election. The Northeast Los Angeles Democratic Club endorsed heterosexual Jimmie Gomez, while the Stonewall Democratic Club, the oldest LGBT Democratic club in the country (and one of the largest) endorsed Luis, as did the Foothills Democratic Club. The big fight is on to see what will happen with the Los Angeles County Democratic Club and California Democratic Party endorsements.

AD-50. The 50th Assembly District, although adjacent in numerical order, is most definitely not geographically adjacent to the 51st. Surprisingly, the two political races are somewhat similar in that they both feature a grassroots, openly gay candidate (Torie Osbone in the 50th, Luis Lopez in the 51st) facing a more establishment type figure (53rd District Assemblywoman Betsy Butler in the 50th, Jimmie Gomez in the 51st). This is only a superficial similarity because in actuality Butler is a currently elected Assemblywoman who previously defeated an openly gay candidate to win her current seat but who enjoys support from various sections of the LGBT community due to her longstanding friendship with West Hollywood City councilman John Duran and her presence on the board of directors of Equality California Institute. Osborne is a longtime lesbian and progressive activist, having served terms (somewhat controversially) as the heads of the L.A. Gay and Lesbian Center and the National Gay and Lesbian Task Force. The issue in this district is that it includes both The People's Republic of Santa Monica (Home of the Homeless) as well as West Hollywood a.k.a. "Boystown" (L.A.'s Gay Ghetto) and that due to redistricting, the heterosexual, somewhat moderate Butler decided to run for re-election in a seat most thought should (or would) be represented by an openly LGBT and/or progressive politician. Osborne recently received the endorsement of the Stonewall and Malibu Democratic Clubs. Butler has more money and the advantage of incumbency while Osborne has significant grassroots support since her former partner Sheila Kuehl had previously represented these areas for 14 years.

CA-44, AD-64. Everyone expected this to be an exciting three-way race between two incumbent Congressmembers and a rising African American political star, fighting to represent a newly drawn 44th Congressional district which was carved out to include multiple sections of Los Angeles where Black and Latino people live in large numbers (17% of the District is African-American, 68% is Latino and a mere 7% is White). It contains the cities of Carson, Compton and South Gate. The first person to announce their intention to run in that district was (the very white) Congresswoman Janice Hahn whose 36th District she had won in July 2011 was basically eliminated in redistricting but whose political base of San Pedro was included in the 44th. However, it was expected that Congresswoman Laura Richardson would also seek re-election in the new CA-44 district, since Richardson's previous 37th District covered more than 50% of the new 44th and she could be considered the incumbent. However, Assemblyman Isadore Hall shocked a lot of people when he announced he was running and demonstrated significant support by outraising both Congresswoman in the 3rd quarter financial filings. However, since I last reported on this race, Hall has decided to drop out of the Congressional race and seek re-election to the Assembly in the newly drawn AD-64 (which was very similar to the district he currently represents). Hahn then followed that up by releasing a poll showing her with a nearly 20 point advantage over the somewhat ethically challenged Richardson. This one should be interesting to watch.

SD-33. Ricardo Lara, the second openly gay person of color to be elected in California (after California Assembly Speaker John Perez) used to represent the old 50th Assembly District (not the district with that name that Lopez and Gomez are running in in which MadProfessah's California residence is located) but has decided to run for the newly drawn 33rd State Senate District in 2012, potentially becoming the first LGBT person of color to be elected to that body. Happily for Lara, he currently does not face any significant Democratic opposition and will almost certainly become a State Senator representing a District which is over 70% Latino (the second most heavily Latino district in California). Interestingly enough this Senate district is literally right next door and slightly overlaps Hall's 64th Assembly District and the Hahn/Richardson 44th Congressional District. It will be great that the State Senate could have as many as 3 openly LGBT members (out of 40) starting in January 2013.

Saturday Politics: Isadore Hall Outraises Both Incumbents in CA-44

Assemblyman Isadore Hall previously came to my attention because he announced he was interested in a run for Congress way back in June even before redistricting was complete which would have entailed him challenging a sitting African-American Congresswoman. Now that redistricting is complete, there is much drama in what is being called the 44th Congressional District because it contains most of U.S. Rep. Laura Richardson's old district but also contains pieces of the former 36th Congressional district which was won by former Los Angeles City councilmember Janice Hahn in a special election this July.

Now  U.S. Rep. Hahn has controversially decided to run in the 44th congressional district, a district specifically designed to be "majority-minority" against U.S. Rep. Laura Richardson and Assemblymember Hall, who are both African-Americans.

However, what is striking that this week came the news that in the last reporting period the state legislator out-raised both of his federal legislator rivals.

The National Journal reports:

Richardson’s been the subject of ethics questions recently: She’s accused of forcing her staff to work for and contribute to her campaign. She’s denied the allegations, but her fundraising dropped off in the third quarter, bringing in only $72,000 with just $116,000 in the bank. Hahn, after her special election, raised $139,000. A third Democrat, Assemblyman Isadore Hall, outraised them both with $158,000.

Very interesting. In the Los Angeles area there are a number of these intra-Democrat incumbent versus incumbent battles, the most amusing being Rep. Brad Sherman versus Rep. Howard Berman (in the new CA-30), who not only have similar sounding names but basically identical voting records.

CA-44: Rep. Hahn Faces Two Black Challengers For Congress

The old 36th Congressional District becomes the new 44th

Whoa! The fallout from decadal redistricting continues. The latest drama surrounds Black political power in Los Angeles County and its representation in the United States Congress. The 36th Congressional District, which was won by Janice Hahn in a special election in July 2011 has been redrawn so that the Congresswoman's residence now resides in the new 44th District.The problem is that the new 44th District was deliberately drawn to have a higher percentage of African American voters, and as many people have noted, Janice Hahn is not Black. But recently Hahn announced that she will run for Congress in the 44th District.

However, Congresswoman Laura Richardson and State Assemblyman Isadore Hall are, and they have both announced that they are running for the new 44th District. Rep. Richardson is running because the district in which she lives has been re-drawn to have a lot more Republican voters from Orange County in it.

A few weeks ago, Janice Hahn released a poll showing her with a big lead over both Hall and Richardson:

Rep. Janice Hahn: 47
Rep. Laura Richardson: 24
Asm. Isadore Hall: 7


Hall's problem is that nobody knows who he is. Richardson's problem is that people know exactly who she is, and they don't like her. According to Hahn's poll, Richardson has a favorability rating of just 37%. (Though she does much better with black voters, at 68%.)


[...]


According to the poll, Hahn does better than Richardson even among black voters. Hahn claims a 74% favorable rating among African-Americans, to Richardson's 68%.

Black politicians who have long supported any Hahn for elected public office (her father Kenneth for County Supervisor, her brother James for Mayor of Los Angeles and Janice herself for City Council and Congress) are very angry.

However, this week Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa endorsed Janice Hahn for Congress in the 44th district.

CA-36: Hahn Defeats Huey By 9 Points

In yesterday's special election to replace former U.S. Representative Jane Harman in the 36th Congressional District of California, Los Angeles City Councilwoman has defeated Republican Tea Party businessman Craig Huey 54.5%-45.5%, just under 7,00
0 votes out of 75,000 cast.

The details are:

As of Date: 07/12/2011 Time: 23:31             Votes  Percent 
                                                                             
US REPRESENTATIVE 36 DIST    TERM ENDS 01/03/13                              
                                                                             
   JANICE HAHN            DEM                  41,585    54.56 
   CRAIG HUEY             REP                  34,636    45.44 
                                                                             
TOTAL PRECINCTS        261            

PRECINCTS REPORTING    261   100.00 
REGISTRATION       342,492   

Congratiolations to Congresswoman-elect Hahn!

CA-36: Hahn Barely Leads Huey In Special Election

Janice Hahn (D) has a lead of 8 points over a Tea Party Republican
 in tomorrow's Congressional special election in the 36th District

Daily Kos has a new poll of the 36th Congressional district special election which should scare the bejeezus out of every Democrat in Southern California! In the special election between Democratic Los Angeles City Councilwoman Janice Hahn and Tea Party Republican businessman Craig Huey

Here are the poll results:

Janice Hahn (D): 52 

Craig Huey (R): 44 

Undecided: 4 

Margin of Error: ±3.9%

The margin of error is important. The spread between the candidates is a mere 8 points but the margin of error is ±3.9 which means that Hahn's lead could theoretically be 0.2 percentage points (or it could also be 15.8 points). Another interesting factor there is the undecided number: just 4 percentage points. That is pretty low, as it should be, since election day is tomorrow Tuesday July 12th. However, people in the 36th district have been voting absentee-by-mail for weeks. However, there is not so good news there for Hahn either.

Dave Catanese of Politico has these totals by the party registrations of those people who had requested vote-by-mail ballots as of Friday July 1st:

Republican/Libertarian — 13,343 

Democratic/Green — 14,035 

Non-affiliated — 5,512

Democrats/Greens outnumber Republican/Libertarian absentee voters by a mere 692 votes! However, in California, it is more likely than not that Hahn is winning the vast majority of the Decline To State ("Non-Affiliated") voters so in that case she should be going into tomorrow's election with a lead, but that's a BIG IF.
The 36th is a pretty tricky district, even if Obama carried by 30 points (64-34), which is a bit less than the 69-31 longtime incumbent Jane Harman had carried it by.

I fully expect Janice Hahn to replace Harman in Congress representing the 36th District tomorrow. It should be interesting to see what happens to the 36th District in the final round of redistricting and if Huey will have a better chance of unseating Hahn in a less partisan district.

Election Results for tomorrow can be found here at LAvote.net.

CA-36: No Contest! Hahn v Bowen Huey

Janice Hahn will be the next U.S. Representative
for the 36th District of California

Apparently the latest results show that Secretary of State Debra Bowen is falling further behind Tea Party Republican Craig Huey, so frontrunner Janice Hahn will more than likely be the only Democrat in the Top 2 run-off for the 36th Congressional District seat on Tuesday July 12th.

Bowen is now an almost insurmountable 750 votes behind the 2nd place finisher, instead of the mere 206 votes she was behind after Tuesday's votes were counted.

As of Date: 05/19/2011 Time: 13:31 Votes  Percent 
                                                                             
US REPRESENTATIVE 36 DIST    TERM ENDS 01/03/13                              
                                                                             
   JANICE HAHN         DEM        15,607    24.62 
   CRAIG HUEY          REP        14,096    22.24 
   DEBRA BOWEN         DEM        13,346    21.05

The 36th Congressional District of California is a district Obama won 64-35 and Brown carried 56-40. It will almost certainly elect a Democrat. Congratulations to Janice Hahn!

CA-36: Hahn Leads Primary, Bowen Currently 3rd

The preliminary results from yesterday's election in Los Angeles County are in and there are some surprises in the race to replace Jane Harman in the 36th Congressional District of California, CA-36.

Here are the numbers right now (as of 05/17/2011 23:27):

JANICE HAHN        DEM            13,137    24.66 
CRAIG HUEY         REP            11,648    21.87 
DEBRA BOWEN        DEM            11,442    21.48

Only the top two vote getters regardless of party advance to the July 12th run-off election, thanks to the nonsensical Proposition 14 which was passed by voters in June 2010 and is now in effect.

MadProfessah had endorsed California Secretary of State Debra Bowen as the true progressive in the race (U.S. Senator Dianne Feinstein endorsed Hahn, blech!) so I was distressed to see her in 3rd position behind a self-financed Tea Party Republican candidate. However, there does seem to be some kind of indications that she may be able to pick up the 207 votes she needs to reach the #2 position. If that doesn't happen, then presumably Hahn would be the next Congressmember from the 36th District, and would set up another special election to fill her then-vacated Los Angeles City Council seat.

In better news, Scott Svonkin has almost certainly won his run-off against another tea Party Republican (named Lydia Gutierrez) for a seat on the Los Angeles Community College District Board. That race was the only contest on the ballot when I voted yesterday.

Saturday Politics: Hahn and Bowen Battle Over CA-36

LA. City Councilperson Janice Hahn ((left) and CA Secretary of State Debra Bowen
are competing for a rare open Congressional seat

Open congressional seats  in California are like "blue moons": they don't come around that often. The last open seat was CA-33 when Diane Watson retired and was replaced by former Assembly Speaker Karen Bass. With the retirement of U.S. Representative Jane Harman, who was a hawk and a Blue Dog, progressives are salivating over the prospect of getting a true liberal to replace her in the 36th Congressional District which Barack Obama carried by over 30 points.

The Washington Post's Rachel Weiner notes:

The likely result of the May 17 primary fight, which features 11 total candidates including 2010 primary loser Marcy Winograd, is a July 12 runoff. Under California’s new primary system, if no candidate gets 50 percent in the primary, the two top vote-getters, regardless of party, advance to a runoff.

“I think its clear there’ll be a runoff,” said Joe Trippi, a longtime Democratic consultant who is advising Hahn’s campaign.

Bowen holds statewide office and represented most of this district in the 1990s as a state legislator. Yet to hear her campaign tell it, she’s the outsider against Hahn.

The argument: Hahn has more endorsements and more money while Bowen has more grassroots support. A majority of her donors gave $200 or less. Democracy for America, a leading liberal organization, endorsed her after polling their members in the district. Her campaign is also quick to point out that Hahn has taken contributions from lobbyists.

As secretary of state, Bowen has been behind a number of initiatives that appeal to liberals, including work on ballot security. She has a long history of advocacy on environmental issues. She’s positioned herself as the anti-war candidate, trying to take some of the space occupied by Winograd, who ran against Harman in 2010 and took 41 percent.

The only poll of the race I have seen is an internal poll released by the Bowen campaign indicating a tie between Hahn and Bowen with 20 percent of the vote each, and Winograd back at 6 percent and openly gay Republican Mike Gin at 8 percent.

MadProfessah doesn't really know either of these candidates well, but I have been unimpressed with Hahn in the past when she ran (and lost) against Gavin Newsom for  Lieutenant Governor last year while Bowen has been endorsed by LGBT super-ally U.S. Representative Judy Chu (CA-32). Hahn has been endorsed by Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and enemy-of-true-progressives everywhere U.S. Senator Dianne Feinstein.

CA-36: Rep. Harman Announces Retirement

U.S. Rep. Jane Harman

Congressmember Jane Harman, Democrat representing California's 36th Congressional District, announced on Monday that she will be resigning from Congress to assume leadership of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.

Congressional seats are not subject to term limits and become available very rarely. The last open seat was the 33rd Congressional District seat won by Karen Bass in a barely contested race in June 2010. The last contested  Congressional seat was the 32nd Congressional District seat won by former State Assembyperson Judy Chu over former State Senator Gil Cedillo.

The names which have been bandied about as replacements for Harman are Los Angeles Councilmember Janice Hahn, Secretary of State Debra Bowen and Assemblymember Warren Furutani.

SD-28: Ted Lieu Announces Run For Oropeza's Seat

Assemblymember Ted Lieu has announced his plans to run for the late Jenny Oropeza's State Senate seat in the 28th District. Sadly, Oropeza died on October 22, but was re-elected posthumously in the statewide general election on Tuesday November 1st.

Lieu currently represents the 53rd Assembly district, but will lose his seat on December 6th when Betsy Butler is sworn in to represent the South Bay-area district because Lieu decided to run for Attorney General this Spring since he was forced to leave the Assembly due to term limits. He lost in the Democratic primary in June 2010 to Kamala Harris, who is still in a too-close-to-call race with Republican Steve Cooley to be California's next Attorney General.

Another person who lost in the June 2010 Democratic primary, this time in the Lieutenant Governor's race (to Gavin Newsom) was Janice Hahn, who announced today that she would not run in the special election and endorsed Lieu. Another perso who may announce  a bid for the seat is Warren Furutani who represents the 55th Assembly district which covers part of the 24th Senate District. Furutani was able to win the 55th Assembly district when Laura Richardson gave it up to run against Oropeza in an August 2007 special election when Congresswoman Janice Millender-McDonald's 37th Congressional district opened up due to her untimely death. Richardson won that race and now represents CA-37.

Of course all these district lines will become open seats in the next election in 2012 when the lines are redrawn, thanks to Proposition 11 and Proposition 20 by an independent "citizen's" redistricting commission with data from the 2010 Census.

Saturday Politics: CA-33, AD-43, SD-15, CA-AG and CA-LG

Kamala Harris

In today's edition of Saturday Politics we have stories about Karen Bass's run for Congress, developments in the California Attorney General race and details about the new (and the next) Lieutenant Governor of California.

CA-33. Assemblymember Karen Bass path to the United States House of Representatives has been cleared by the decision by a deep-pocketed rival named Howard C. Mandel to not challenge the former Speaker of the Assembly for the Democratic nomination for the 33rd Congressional District, currently represented by retiring Diane Watson. Multiple sources tell MadProfessah that the good doctor, who had been prepared to spend up to $500,000, has been quietly convinced by leaders in the Jewish community that they support Ms. Bass's run for the Congressional seat. This leaves Bass' only remaining challenger the perennial candidate Felton Newell.

AD-43. Following his decisive win in the April 13th special primary election and his primary opponent's withdrawal from the race, Mike Gatto has secured the endorsement of the Stonewall Democratic Club in both races happening June 8, 2010: the special election run-off and the Democratic primary election.

CA Attorney General. While MadProfessah endorsed San Francisco District Attorney on Wednesday, the same day that former Facebook Chief Privacy Officer Chris Kelly wrote a check for $4 million to double his campaign war chest for the Democratic nomination for the Attorney General.

CA Lieutenant Governor. The race between Los Angeles City Councilmember Janice Hahn and San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom has gotten pretty tense. The two ad elaborate, duelling parties at the California Demorcratic Convention in Los Angeles, where neither was able to gather the state party's official endorsement. At the Equality California statewide candidates forum last Sunday, the two refused to share a stage. Interestingly, Hahn easily earned the endorsement of the Stonewall Democratic Club on Monday, despite the fact that Newsom is well-known in the LGBT community as an early champion of marriage equality.

SD-15. In other Lieutenant Governor news, State Senator Abel Maldonado was sworn in this week as the new Lieutenant Governor after winning confirmation a few months after the Assembly rejected his nomination, giving the Republicans 3 of the 8 statewide constitutional offices (including Governor and Insurance Commissioner). Maldonado's ascension leaves his seat in State Senate District 15 open, and openly gay former Assemblyman John Laird has made no secret of his desire to switch the seat to the Democrats. If he wins, he would become only the second openly gay man to serve in the State Senate, following Mark Leno.

That's it for this week. Feel free to send tips for future Saturday Politics stories by twitter (@madprofessah), email or in the comments!