SHOCK! Federer Out For The Rest Of 2016 Season (Will Miss Olympics & US Open), Returning In January 2017

Tragic announcement from Roger Federer today. He has decided to rehabilitate his knee for the rest of this year's tennis season and will skip the 2016 Rio Olympics, 2016 US Open and the 2016 Year-End Championships.

Federer was within one set of reaching the 2016 Wimbledon final earlier this month but lost to Milos Raonic of Canada. This will be the first year since 2001 that Federer will not win an ATP tour title of any kind. He only played 28 matches in 2016 and had a record of 21-7, although he reached the semifinals of both major tournaments he played in (lost to Djokovic at the 2016 Australian Open) this year.

Here's the official announcement:

Dear Fans,
I’m extremely disappointed to announce that I will not be able to represent Switzerland at the Olympic Games in Rio and that I will also miss the remainder of the season. Considering all options after consulting with my doctors and my team, I have made the very difficult decision to call an end to my 2016 season as I need more extensive rehabilitation following my knee surgery earlier this year. The doctors advised that if I want to play on the ATP World Tour injury free for another few years, as I intend to do, I must give both my knee and body the proper time to fully recover. It is tough to miss the rest of the year. However, the silver lining is that this experience has made me realize how lucky I have been throughout my career with very few injuries. The love I have for tennis, the competition, tournaments and of course you, the fans remains intact. I am as motivated as ever and plan to put all my energy towards coming back strong, healthy and in shape to play attacking tennis in 2017.

Thanks for your continued support.
 

I'm devastated! The opportunities to see Federer play live are becoming fewer and fewer...

TENNIS TUESDAY: Sharapova Stuns Tennis World With Admission Of Failed WADA Test

5-time major champion Maria Sharapova piqued the attention of the world press when she announced over the weekend that she would be giving a press conference in Los Angeles on Monday, just hours after football legend Peyton Manning was scheduled to confirm his retirement from the world's most lucrative sport. This led to speculation that perhaps the 28-year-old Russian would announce her own retirement from tennis on Monday.

Instead, the highest paid female athlete in the world announced that she had recently received a letter from the World Anti-Doping Authority (WADA) that she had failed a drug test at the 2016 Australian Open. Apparently she had tested positive for the substance meldonium from a sample provided to WADA on January 26 (during the Australian Open), which had been added to list of banned substances on January 1, 2016.

Sharapova gave a press conference where she took full responsibility for the failed drug test and said that she had been taking meldonium since 2006 and that although she had received an email with a link to the new list of unapproved substances she did not personally look at the new list. Meldonium is not a drug that is approved by the United States Food and Drug Administration (it is manufactured in Latvia).

There are many more questions raised by Sharapova's press conference. Here are just a few:

1. How long will she be banned from tennis for this infraction? (She has already been officially banned from professional tennis starting March 12, 2016.)
2. How did the most highly paid female athlete in tennis not have someone on her staff who regularly checks the list of substances the athlete takes and compares it to the current list of banned substances maintained by WADA?
3. Does Sharapova take the drug every day? What is the half-life of meldonium? Depending on how long meldonium remains in the system, perhaps 25 days after she stopped taking it, she tested positive for it. After all, if she had smoked marijuana on December 31st, it's very possible she could have tested positive for THC 3-4 weeks later.
4. Why has Sharapova been taking this drug for the last 10 years, and what effect does this have on her legacy as a player if she used a now-banned substance to (presumably enjoy an) advantage in tennis competitions for the vast majority of her professional career?
5. Will she be able to play in the Rio Olympics?

Sharapova is 28 (turns 29 next month) and an extensive ban at this time could push her into announcing her retirement for real this time, a reality she herself acknowledged when she said "I don't want to end my career this way, and I really hope I will be given another chance to play this game."

2016 AUS OPEN: Kerber Shocks Serena To Win 1st Major Title

Defying my predictions and confounding history, Angelique Kerber outlasted Serena Williams 6-4 3-6 6-4 to win her first major title, at the 2016 Australian Open. Serena was aiming to match Steffi Graf's career total of 22 major titles while Kerber was aiming to become the first German player since Graf to win a major title. Serena was 21-4 in major finals and had only ever lost to three women in major finals (Venus Williams, Maria Sharapova and Samantha Stosur). Kerber was match point down in the very first round of the tournament but after coming through that she was able to play her very best tennis calmly and effectively and after getting a dream draw was able to come back from a huge deficit against Victoria Azarenka and continue that momentum to reach her first major final against Serena and win it! Now that's two consecutive majors where we have had first time slam winners. First Flavia Pennetta did it in New York last September and now 28-year-old Kerber is the champion in Melbourne.

How The Match Was Won
Serena had not dropped a set going into her 7th Australian Open final, the first time she had ever done that, and since she had won all previous six finals in Melbourne this was viewed as a positive omen. However, what happened when the final began was that Serena started nervously and was broken quickly. This was a slight surprise, but since it had also happened against Maria Sharapova most fans didn't worry and fully expected Serena to right the ship quickly. She did come back and evened the set at 3-all. Then surprisingly, Serena got broken again and Kerber's improved serve was able to carry her to take the first set in the face of  nearly two dozen unforced errors from her opponent and (ominously) no aces.

Surprisingly, we then discovered that Serena has only won 2 of 6 grand slam finals where she loses the first set, although she had never previously lost a 3-set major final (8-0). So, the key thing to do is win the first set when playing Serena in a final (because it usually means that she is having a very bad day and may actually go down in straight sets).

Serena finally started serving a bit better in the second set, but she never really punished Kerber's second serve like it deserved. However, she was able to get a break early and rushed out to a 4-1 lead, which she was able to maintain to take the middle set 6-3. (Kerber did well to hold after being down 2-5, 30-all to force Serena to serve out the second set and earn the right to serve first in the 3rd.)

The third set was one of the most compelling sets of tennis on the women's game in a really, really long time. Kerber hit 12 winners and only 3 unforced errors while Serena hit 19 winners and 18 unforced errors. Serena fell down 0-2 but was able to battle back to even the score at 2-all and after Kerber held the two played an intense 10-minute, 5-deuce game that Serena lost to go down 2-4 in the final set. Kerber was again able to hold despite not serving well (she was 56% first serves in for the match and won 60% of first serves points and 58% of second serve points, all stats in which she surpassed Serena today.)

Amazingly, despite being down 2-5 in the final set, Serena was able to come back and get back on serve, and she had a game point serving at 4-5, 40-30 but she missed that first serve and hit a very weak second serve which Kerber pummeled down the line for a winner to get to deuce. After a long rally, Serena went for a crosscourt winner but hit the top of the tape and set up championship point. Serena lost this point on a volley error (it was an easy volley that sailed well over the baseline).

Overall, a really great match. Serena was nervous, and frankly had the wrong game plan to come to net in an attempt to win points. Kerber was too fast and her lefty spin makes volleying difficult and it showed with Serena only making 15 of 32 net points. However, I'm happy to see Serena so fot so early in the year and I'm confident that if she stays healthy all year Serena will still reach Steffi's total of 22 titles this year (and probably end her career with 24 or 25). It takes the pressure off the rest of her year, so she should be extra motivated to get 22 in either Paris, Wimbledon (more likely) or New York (in addition to more Gold in Rio).

Kerber will move up to World #2 when the rankings come out on Monday, bumping down Simona Halep to #3 and elbowing out Sharapova out of the Top 5 as Radwanska and Muguruza round out the top 5. Amusingly, Pennetta is still in the Top 10 at #7 even though she retired at the end of 2015! I think it will be tough to end the year at #2 but I do expect her to remain in the Top 5 and to see Azarenka return to the Top 5 by the end of the year.

2015 US OPEN: Fognini Upsets Nadal In Late Night Thriller!

I just arrived in NYC to attend the 2015 U.S. Open so I did not have time to blog about the huge surprise result that happened last night. Fabio Fognini beat Rafael Nadal for the third time this year, but this time was definitely not a charming experience for the 14-time major champ! It was the first time in a major tournament that Nadal had won the first two sets and not won the match (150-0).

Nadal was up two sets and a break before somehow Fognini turned the match around. (I saw the first set and a half and then went to pack and get ready for bed last night). Somehow the Italian leveled the match at 2-sets all (3-6 4-6 6-6 6-3) and then broke first to up 2-1 in the fifth set. Then there were an incredible SIX consecutive breaks of serve in a row, with Fognini finally holding at 5-4 to win the match well after 1am in New York City (I was long asleep--I turned off the coverage after Nadal broke back to even the match at 4-all.)

The amazing thing about this match is that Fognini won it, Nadal didn't lose it. The Italian hit 70 winners (to 57 unforced errors), more than twice Nadal's 30 winners (to only 18 unforced errors).
The loss means that for the first time since 2004 Nadal will not win a major. This was basically guaranteed when he did not win the French Open this year (only the second time in 11 years that has happened). So Nadal's streak of 10 consecutive years of major titles (2005-2014) surpasses Federer's streak of major titles from 2003-2010. (It should be noted, that in Federer's worst year, 2013, he at least reached a semifinal and a quarterfinal and he has reached finals in 2011, 2012, 2014 and 2015--winning only once.) The $80 million question is, now that he has stopped winning majors regularly, will Nadal come back to challenge and win another? (I think the answer is yes he will get to multiple finals, I'm not completely sure he will win multiple majors, however.)

Nadal has slipped to World #8 in the ATP rankings and his best Grand Slam results this year are Quarterfinals in Australia (l. Tomas Berdych) and Roland Garros (l. Novak Djokovic) with 2nd round losses at Wimbledon (l. Dustin Brown) and and now a 3rd round loss to Fognini at the U.S. Open.

Federer easily won his 3rd round match and still has not lost a set. He faces John Isner in the fourth round on Monday and I'll be there to see it!

2015 US OPEN Day 1: Seeds Fall Like Rain! Nishikori(4), Ivanovic(7), Pliskova(8), CSN (10) Are Out!

Wowsa! After one day my U.S. Open bracket is already busted! (You can see my WTA and ATP picks here and here.)  THREE Top 10 seeds (all in 3-time defending champion Serena Williams half of the draw) fell in the first round. And this was after the news came late last night that #3 seed Maria Sharapova (also in Serena's half) was withdrawing from the tournament with a leg injury! Ana Ivanovic(7), Karolina Pliskova(8), Carla Suarez Navarro(10) all fell to lower ranked opponents, thus clearing the path for Serena to win her 7th major title. Other notable losses were Sloane Stephens (losing to fellow American Coco Vandeweghe), 2-time major champion Svetlana Kuznetsova and former World #1 Jelena Jankovic. Venus Williams barely escaped being included in the carnage when she blew two match points in the 3nd set tiebreaker but thanks to an early break in the 3rd set, she was able to keep her nose in front and get a 6-4 6-7(7) 6-3 win over Monica Puig.

The biggest upset was on the men's side with #4 seed (and 2014 US Open finalist) Kei Nishikori falling to talented Frenchman Benoit Paire after failing to win two match points in the 4th set and then losing a tight 5th set. The other finalist, defending champion Marin Cilic won his first round match rather easily, and World #1 Novak Djokovic put on a frightening display by dispatching Joao Sousa of Brasil in 71 minutes while losing only 3 games in the process.

WIMBLEDON 2015: Defending Champ P3Tra Kvitova Upset By Jankovic; Lower Half Of Draw Wide Open

2-time Wimbledon champion Petra Kvitova looked unbeatable through her first two rounds of her title defense but then in the second set (at 6-3 4-2) of her third round encounter with former World #1 Jelena Jankovic she suddenly started missing the lines and things went down hill from there.

Kvitova had lost 3 games through the first two matches but when Jankovic started putting up stiff resistance she did not handle the tension well, and lost the second set 5-7.

The third set was a closer affair with both players holding serve until the tenth game when Kvitova, serving to stay in the match was up 30-15 but then lost three consecutive points on errors to lose the match 6-4 in the third.

The removal of Kvitova from the bottom half of the draw leaves that section wide open, with no major champions remaining.

In the bottom half of the draw Caroline Wozniacki, Aga Radwanska, Garbine Muguruza, Jelena Jankovic and Madison Keys all have chances to get to Wimbledon final by simply winning three more matches.

2014 WIMBLEDON: Double Shock! Nadal and Sharapova (Reigning French Open Champs) Lose In 4th Round

A star was born today and his name is Nick Kyrgios, a 19-year-old, 6-foot-4 multiethnic qualifier from Australia who saved a record 9 match points against Richard Gasquet in the 2nd round and hit 37 aces to defeat 14-time major champion Rafael Nadal  7-6(5), 5-7, 7-6(5), 6-3, just weeks after Nadal won his 9th French Open title. It was Nadal's first loss to a player born since 1990: Kyrgios was born in 1995.

The other reigning French Open champion, Maria Sharapova also lost today, but to the #9 seed Angelique Kerber in the highest quality match of the tournament (on either side of the draw) 6-7(4) 6-4 4-6. Sharapova saved 6 match points and had won a string of 3-set matches in a row. Sharapova had 57 winners (but 49 unforced errors) compared to just 9 unforced errors for Kerber.

Nick Kyrgios

So neither of the expected marquee matchups (Federer-Nadal semifinal or Serena-Sharapova quarterfinal) will happen this year.

SHOCK: Nadal Loses 2nd Clay Court Match In 2 Weeks!

Following last week's stunning straight sets loss to David Ferrer in the quarterfinals of the ATP Monte Carlo Masters tournament Rafael Nadal has had an even more shocking loss, this time to Nico Almagro in the quarterfinals of the Barcelona Open after winning the first set and blowing a 3-1 lead in the 3rd to lose for the first time to his countryman. Nadal has only lost 13 clay court matches in total since 2005, so it is remarkable that two of those losses have come in the last two weeks, a month before he tries to win his 9th record French Open in Paris. Almagro was 0-10 lifetime against Nadal and will certainly cherish this 2-6 7-6(5) 6-4 win, especially on Spanish soil. Nadal had won the Barcelona tournament a ridiculous eight times (41-match winning streak). In fact, Nadal had last lost a set in Barcelona in 2008 (to Ferrer).

This makes the upcoming French Open look very interesting indeed. Can Nadal really defend his title again? Or could Stanislas Wawrinka win his second consecutive major of the year, or will Djokovic finally get to complete his career slam?

2014 AUS OPEN: Double Surprise! Federer Beats Murray, Aggie beats Vika!

In two more surprising results on the hard courts in Melbourne, Australia (following defending champion Novak Djokovic's loss), World #6 Roger Federer upset World #4 Andy Murray and World #5 Agnieska Radwanska upset World #2 Victoria Azarenka in the quarterfinals of the Australian Open.

I had predicted neither of these results, in my men's quarterfinals predictions where I was right 1 out of 4 times (Rafael Nadal d. Grigor Dimitrov) nor in my women's quarterfinal predictions, where I was right 1 of 4 times (Li Na d. Flavia Pennetta).

I am not unhappy with these results. I think it shows that rankings do not always mean anything, and even when one person leads a match-up, as in Vika-Aga (13-2), you never know what can happen. Hopefully, Federer can take this to heart as he plays Rafa for the 33rd time in the semifinals. where he trails 10-22, and lost in 4 sets to the Spaniard at this stage in 2012 and in the final of 2009. It's hard to argue that Federer now is playing better than Federer then and that Nadal now is worse than Nadal then. But, at least on hard courts Federer has his best chance of making another major final, where he would be favored against whomever he plays: Tomas Berdych or Stanislas Wawrinka.

Defending Champ Djokovic Loses In Miami

Current Australian Open champion and World #3 Novak Djokovic lost his first match at the Sony Ericsson Open in Miami against American qualifier Kevin Anderson 7-6 (1) 3-6 6-4. The Serbian player was coming off winning the first Masters Series tournament of the year at the Pacific Life Open on Sunday and was the defending champion at the Miami Masters.

Djokovic lost the match despite being up a break 2-0 in the third and deciding set when the umpire gave him a warning for a time violation serving at deuce. Djokovic won the next point but eventually was broken and later lost a streak of 8 points in a row. Anderson is a 6 foot 7 inch former NCAA Doubles champion who made it to the Tennis Channel Open final last month, losing to 6 foot 6 inch American Sam Querrey.