Showing posts with label Federer-Nadal rivalry. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Federer-Nadal rivalry. Show all posts

Tuesday, September 10, 2019

2019 US OPEN: Nadal Wins 19th Slam, 4th US Open Title


As I predicted, Rafael Nadal won the 2019 US Open title, by defeating Daniil Medvedev in a surprisingly tight 7-5 6-3 5-7 6-4 6-3 in nearly 5 hours. This is Nadal's 19th major title (1 Australian Open, 12 French Open, 2 Wimbledon, 4 US Open), putting him just one behind Roger Federer's total of 20 and increasing his lead over Novak Djokovic's 16.

Wednesday, August 14, 2019

2019 CANADA: Rafa Wins 35th Masters Title; Bianca Wins Canada As Serena Sobs


19-year-old Bianca Andreescu became the first Canadian woman in 50 years to win her country's Canadian Open tennis championship when Serena Williams retired down 1-3 in the championship match on Sunday. Williams said she had had back spasms the night before and that "she couldn't move" and started sobbing on the court. Later, she went to Cincinnati for the Western & Southern Financial Open tournament but withdrew from her match there. Presumably the next time we will see Serena will be at the 2019 S Open which starts August 26. Andreescu is now #14 in the rankings, achieving the amazing feat of having her ranking be less than her age in record fashion. he has won her first 7 matches against Top 10 opponents. Many expect her to be in the Top 10 soon herself, and she is considered (by some) to be "in the mix" for the US Open. Naomi Osaka (despite losing in straight sets to Serena) regained the World #1 ranking due to Karolina Pliskova's loss to Andreescu early in the tournament.

Rafael Nadal won his 5th Rogers Cup title in Montreal, demolishing Daniil Medvedev 6-3 6-0 in about 70 minutes. Amazingly, it was the first time in his career that Nadal had defended a hard-court (non-clay court) title, since he had won the 2018 Rogers Cup in Toronto last year. It's Nadal's 35th Masters series shield, increasing his lead over his rivals (Novak Djokovic has 33 and Roger Federer has 28). Nadal is the first player to win 2 Masters titles this year (having also won in Rome), while Federer won Miami and Djokovic won Madrid.

Sunday, July 14, 2019

2019 WIMBLEDON: Men's Final Preview (and Semifinals Review)



This is my prediction post for the 2019 Wimbledon men's final. Last year I did predict that Novak Djokovic would defeat Kevin AndersonThis year I correctly predicted the results of  2 of 2 men's semifinals2 of 2 women's semifinals, 4 of 4 men's quarterfinals and 3 of 4 women's quarterfinals

MEN'S SEMIFINALS REVIEW
Novak Djokovic (SRB) [1] d. Roberto Bautista Agut (ESP) [23]  6-2 4-6 6-3 6-2Roberto Bautista Agut had beaten World #1 Novak Djokovic two times this year but as expected the Serb was able to get through this match relatively unscathed, with the loss of one set. The problem with "Robbie Bats" as some call him is that there's nothing that he does on the court that Djokovic does not do better. The Spaniard is having an excellent year, having won  the title in Doha (beating Djokovic along the way).

Roger Federer (SUI) [2] d. Rafael Nadal (ESP) [3] 7-6(3) 1-6 6-3 6-4. 11 years  after Federer and Nadal played the greatest match of all time, the two rivals faced each other on the grass courts of Wimbledon again this year. Many observers believed that Nadal would win this match due to the fact that Nadal had dismissed Federer in the semifinals of Roland Garros less than a month before and the fact that the Wimbledon grass courts are playing more like clay courts than hard courts. However, Federer has now managed to win 6 of their last 7 meeting, and the head-to-head is now a mere 24-16, which means that on non-clay court Federer leads 14-10 since Nadal leads on clay 2-14. This match was generally of a very high quality, except for the second set, where after losing his serve and failing to break back within 2 service games Federer basically ceded the set and marshaled his energy to make a push in the third set where he was rewarded with an early break. The ending of the match was incredibly stress , with Federer needing 5 match points in the last two games of the match to close it out. At that stage of the match both players were at their peak, playing their best tennis simultaneously. It was awesome!

MEN'S FINAL PREVIEW
For the 48th time Roger Federer will face Novak Djokovic. Djokovic leads the head-to-head 25-22 and has a pretty surprising 2-1 head-to-head against the 8-time Wimbledon champion at Wimbledon, having beaten him in the 2014 and 2015 finals while Federer won their 2012 semifinal matchup. The two have not played in a major since the 2015 US Open final (also won by Djokovic) and last year's 2018 Paris Masters was viewed by many as the best 3-set match of the year (and won by Djokovic).

All the stats and history predict a Djokovic win on Sunday. (Federer is the only one of the big 3 who have never beaten the other two back-to-back to win a tournament) but I believe that Federer will take great confidence from his win over Nadal and the fact that he has been tested by playing the #3 (Nadal), #8 (Kei Nishikori), #17 (Matteo Berrettini) and #27 (Lucas Pouille) seeds in the tournament while Djokovic has only faced the #21 (David Goffin) and #23 (Roberto Bautista Agut) to reach this level. Of course I am also a huge Federer fan and would love to see him win a 9th Wimbledon and record 21st major. Federer is 20-10 in major finals while Djokovic is 15-9. However, Federer now has the most match wins on tour in 2019 and maybe this will lead him to a surprise victory. MadProfessah's prediction: Federer.

Thursday, July 11, 2019

2019 WIMBLEDON: Men's Semifinals Preview (and Predictions) #Fedal40



Novak Djokovic (SRB) [1] vs Roberto Bautista Agut (ESP) [23]. Roberto Bautista Agut has beaten World #1 Novak Djokovic two times this year but the Serb has an overall head-to-head of 7-3 but the two have never played on grass. Djokovic has only lost one set this Wimbledon (a tiebreak set against Hurkacz) and is playing in his umpteenth major semifinal while his opponent is playing in his first. It's disparities like that which allow the Big 3 to continue dominating the rest of the men's tennis tour, and it frankly doesn't look like that will end any time soon, since Djokovic is the youngest of the trivalry at 32 years old. Djokovic has a 5-3 record in Wimbledon semifinals and 4-1 record in Wimbledon finals.   Mad Professah's pick: Djokovic.

Rafael Nadal (ESP) [3] vs Roger Federer (SUI) [2]. For the first time in 11 years, there will be a Fedal match at Wimbledon. The two have played 39 matches and Rafael Nadal leads 24-15 and won their last match in the 2019 French Open semifinals in straight sets.Tennis fans are salivating over the possibility of a reprise of the Greatest Match of All Time which occurred when the two met in the 2018 Wimbledon final, which was won by Nadal 9-7 in the fifth set. I seriously doubt the match will meet those impossible standards, but it is incredibly significant. Federer has 20 major titles and Nadal is breathing down his neck with 18. If Nadal wins this match and subsequently wins the title on Sunday, he will be only one behind Federer and most people think that the Spaniard will win at least one more Roland Garros title. Nadal has been relentless at this year's Wimbledon, which many people is playing so slowly it resembles a clay court. If that's the case one has to give him the edge over Federer. However, I still think it's a grass court and Federer, even at age 37 is the best grass court player in the world. Mad Professah's pick: Federer.

Tuesday, July 09, 2019

2019 WIMBLEDON: Men's Quarterfinals Preview (and Predictions)


Here are my predictions for the men's quarterfinals at the 2019 Wimbledon Championships I have also predicted the men's quarterfinals. Last year I predicted 2 of 4 men's quarterfinals correctly and 4 of 4 women's quarterfinals correctly. I also correctly predicted 3 of 4  women's quarterfinals this year.

Novak Djokovic (SRB) [1] vs David Goffin (BEL) [21].  Djokovic has yet to lose a set at this year's tournament and is currently on 31 of 32 Grand Slam winning streak. His only loss since winning Wimbledon 2018, US Open 2019 and Australian Open 2019 is a semifinal loss to Dominic Thiem on clay at last month's Roland Garros. He holds a 5-1 head-to-head lead over David Goffin but the two have never played on grass. People are saying the grass courts this year are playing like clay courts, which is Goffin's best surface. The big 3 have been putting on a clinic on how to dismantle opponents; Djokovic only gave up 8 games in his previous round. I don't think the score will be that lopsided in the quarterfinal but the result will be the same. Mad Professah's pick: Djokovic.

Guido Pella (ARG) vs Roberto Bautista Agut (ESP) [23]. Before the tournament started the draw (and who should be seeded #2, Federer or Nadal) was a large point of contention. Djokovic was the winner in both respects because both of his fellow members of the trivalry are in the other half this year, and his top half of the draw has collapsed. To reach the final, the world #1 will face opponents who he has a 13-4 advantage against. Guido Pella did amazingly well to outlast 2016 finalist Milos Raonic. Amazingly, Pella has defeated 3 former Wimbledon finalists in the last 2 years (2017 Finalist Marin Cilic last year and  2018 finalists Kevin Anderson in the 3rd round this year). Bautista Agut is having a great year and he has already beaten Djokovic twice this year already. Mad Professah's pick: Bautista Agut.

Rafael Nadal (ESP) [3] vs Sam Querrey (USA). Sam Querrey and Rafael Nadal have not played for more than 2 years, but the American's last meeting was a victorious one on the hard courts of Acapulco. Querrey is putting on a serving clinic in this tournament and has only had  his serve broken once! He knows that he can beat the very best at Wimbledon, having done so in 2016 when he defeated Djokovic, who had just achieved the historic Nole Slam. That defeat lead to a 2-year spiral for Djokovic which he only pulled out of at last year's Wimbledon. The problem for Querrey is that the courts are resembling a clay court and that is a bad sign for anyone not named Nadal. Mad Professah's pick: Nadal.

Roger Federer (SUI) [2] vs Kei Nishikori  (JPN) [8]. Kei Nishikori has a respectable head-to-head of 3-7 against the Greatest of all Time, and even won their last meeting in straight sets at the 2018 Year-End Championships in London. Federer won their only grass meeting in Halle. Nishikori has done something unusual for him at this year's Wimbledon: he lost only 1 set and won 12 to reach the qurterfinals. Typically the Japanese #1 gets caught up in long 5-set matches in early rounds of majors and thus doesn't get very far in the second week. Will it matter the way Federer is playing at the moment as evinced by his demolition  of young excellent grass-court player in Matteo Berettini? Probably not.  Mad Professah's pick: Federer.

Sunday, June 09, 2019

2019 FRENCH OPEN: Men's Final Preview (and Semifinals Review)


This is my prediction post for the 2019 French Open men's final. Last year I correctly predicted that Rafael Nadal  would defeat Dominic Thiem This year I predicted 1 of 2 men's semifinals correctly2 of 2 women's semifinals correctly0 of 4 women's quarterfinals correctly and 4 of 4 men's quarterfinals correctly


 MEN'S SEMIFINALS REVIEW


Rafael Nadal (ESP) [2] d. Roger Federer (SUI) [3] 6-3 6-4 6-2. This was the 39th meeting between the two tennis greats and despite Federer's improved backhand the result on clay was what was expected--an unsuspenseful win by Nadal, bringing his head to head lead back up to 24-15. The match was greatly affected by the weather as the wind was extremely high. Nadal was able to play more of his game in the weather than Federer was and was able to break Federer early in all 3 sets. (In the second set the break was a break-back which effectively ended Federer's chances to make the  match competitive.)

Dominc Thiem (AUT) [4] d. Novak Djokovic (SRB) [1] 6-2 3-6 7-5 5-7 7-5. This match was played over two days and was disrupted by weather multiple times. Thiem's win was quite a surprise, because Djokovic had won 26 consecutive grand slam matches. However, since Thiem had beaten Djokovic at this stage in the tournament before it was not out of the question it would happen again. It signals a significant breakthrough for the post-trivalry generation of another player under 30 reaching their second major final and signals that at some point in future the Prince of Clay may become the king.


 MEN'S FINAL PREVIEW

This is a reprise of last year's final which was easily won by Nadal. Since then, these two have played an epic 5-set match at the U.S. Open which was also won by Nadal, despite Thiem winning the first set 6-0! It's hard to see any other result beside Nadal winning his 12th French Open, but I think atleast the match will be extended to either four or five sets. PREDICTION: Nadal.

Friday, June 07, 2019

2019 FRENCH OPEN: Men's Semifinals Preview


Here are my predictions for the women's semifinals at the 2019 French Open I have also predicted the women's semifinals. This year I predicted 0 of 4 women's quarterfinals correctly and 4 of 4 men's quarterfinals correctly. Last year I predicted 2 of 2 men's semifinals correctly and 2 of 2 women's semifinals correctly.


Novak Djokovic (SRB) [1] vs Dominic Thiem (AUT) [4]

 Unlike the women's tournament, where there will be a first-time grand slam winner and there are two unseeded teenage players in the semifinals, the men's tournament features a player in his 4th consecutive Roland Garros semifinal, and he's the least accomplished player of the quarter remaining in the draw! This is the 8th meeting between Djokovic and Thiem and the 15-time major champion leads 6-2, including 3-2 on clay. But Thiem beat Djokovic in the semifinal round here 2 years ago in straight sets, when Djokovic was close to his nadir. However, the World #1 has now won 26 Grand Slam matches in a row and there's pretty good chance that he will win his second career Nole Slam on Sunday. Such a feat would cement his status as the future G.O.A.T, ahead of his two contemporaries in the golden "trivalry" of Federer-Nadal-Djokovic. Only the Prince of Clay stands in his way from a potential (record!) 55th meeting with Nadal in the final of Roland Garros on Sunday, the most difficult feat in tennis, one that he has accomplished once before. It's hard to bet against him, and I wouldn't. Mad Professah's pick: Djokovic.

Rafael Nadal (ESP) [2] vs Roger Federer (SUI) [3] 
Well here we are! After skipping the clay for the last three years in the second wind of his career to concentrate on winning Wimbledon, Federer surprised the tennis world by agreeing to play the clay season. I agree with most observers who think this will probably be the last time we see Federer play on clay, and this is one reason he is happy to have made the semifinals (and the concomitant ranking points) as well as this last opportunity to meet Rafa on clay, where he has lost 13 of 15 matches the two have played.  Interestingly, this semifinal result is the best Federer has had in the last four slams, having lost in the fourth round in Australia (to Stefanos Tsitsipas) and New York (to John Millman) and the quarterfinal (to Kevin Anderson). Presumably, he expects his results in the next four slams to be decidedly better as he prepares to retire after the Tokyo Olympics (as he chases the elusive Singles Gold medal). This Federer-Nadal XXXIX or #Fedal39 and even though Federer has won the last 5 meetings against Nadal (bringing the head-to-head deficit to only 15-23 thanks to a tennis racquet with a larger head and a more forceful and aggressive topspin backhand) the matchup has never been great for the Swiss Maestro, especially on clay. I would love for Federer to win this match, but I find it hard to even see him winning a set, frankly. And I'm okay with that. I wish the draw had been different and Thiem was in Federer's half and Nadal in Djokovic's. Then I would think there's a VERY good chance of a Federer-Djokovic final. This year, I don't think that's gonna happen. Mad Professah's pick: Nadal.

Tuesday, May 14, 2019

TENNIS TUESDAY: Big 3 Are All Top 3; Tsitsipas Beats Nadal; Djokovic Wins Madrid; Kiki Beats Halep


THE BIG THREE (DJOKOVIC, NADAL, FEDERER) ARE ATOP THE ATP RANKINGS AGAIN
The big 3 first occupied the Top 3 spots at the top of the rankings on July 9, 2007 (when Djokovic joined Nadal and Federer). Last week, Federer returned to the Top 3 where Djokovic and Nadal were holding down the two top spots. Together the three players account for an astonishing 792 weeks at #1, with Federer owning the record 310 weeks, followed by Djokovic with 251 and Nadal with 196.

TSITSIPAS BEATS NADAL IN MADRID SF, OWNS WINS OVER BIG 3 AT AGE 20!
The Madrid Masters ended with Rafael Nadal suffering his 3rd consecutive semifinal loss in a clay court tournament in 2019. He lost to Fabio Fognini (in straight sets) in Barcelona, to Dominic Thiem in Monte Carlo and he lost to Stefanos Tsitsipas in Madrid! This is the first time since 2004 that Nadal has reached this point in the season without having won a title. His last chance at a clay title will be Rome, where both World #1 Djokovic and (surprisingly!)  World #3 Federer are also playing. The key take-away from Madrid though is despite being just 20-years-old Tsitsipas already has wins over all of the members of the trivalry and is up to World #7 in the rankings. He beat Federer in the 4th round of the 2019 Australian Open, he beat Nadal in Madrid and he beat Djokovic in Montreal last summer.

KIKI BEATS SIMO TO WIN MADRID; RISES TO WORLD #4
Surprisingly, Kiki Bertens became the first player to ever win the Madrid Open without dropping a set when she defeated 2-time champion (2016 & 2017) Simona Halep 6-4 6-4. Bertens had lost the final last year to Petra Kvitova but she has had some of her best results in her career in the last year, including a win over Venus Williams at Wimbledon. With the biggest title of her career she becomes the highest ranked Dutch player ever, rising to World #4 this week!

DJOKOVIC RETURNS TO FORM WITH WINS OVER THIEM & TSITSIPAS TO WIN MADRID MASTERS
For the first time this year, the person who beat Nadal on clay did not win the tournament. Less than 24 hours after beating Nadal, Tsitsipas had to face Djokovic in the final, and was fairly easily dismissed, 6-3 6-4. Djokokic had more trouble in the semifinals against Dominic Thiem, whome he defeated in two tiebreak sets despite being down a service break in both sets! With his win, the World #1 cements his place at the top of the rankings, especially considering he has won the last three major tournaments in a row and now has tied Nadal with 33 Masters shields. Federer lags behind with 28.

FEDERER HITS 1200 WIN MILESTONE; DECIDES TO PLAY ROME
Roger Federer hit another career milestone by winning his 1200 match in Madrid (by coming from behind to beat Gael Monfils). After losing a tight 3-set match to Dominic Thiem (despite holding two match points) he decided to play Rome for the first time since 2016.

Sunday, July 15, 2018

2018 WIMBLEDON: Men's Final Preview (and Semifinals Review)


Novak Djokovic (SRB) [12] vs Kevin Anderson (RSA) [8]
Here are my predictions for the women's final at the Wimbledon Championships for 2018. This year I correctly predicted 2 of 4 men's quarterfinals, correctly predicted 4 of 4 women's quarterfinals, 1 of 2 men's semifinals and 2 of 2 women's semifinals. Last year I incorrectly predicted Venus Williams would defeat Garbine Muguruza. 


MEN'S SEMIFINALS REVIEW

Kevin Anderson (RSA) [8] d. John Isner (USA) [9] 7-6(6) 6-7(5) 6-7(9) 6-4 26-24At 6 hours 36 minutes, this was the longest match ever played on Wimbledon's Centre Court and the second longest grand slam match of all time, exceeded only by the ridiculous 11-hour, 3-day ordeal Isner survived against Nicolas Mahut back in 2010 (winning 70-68 in the 5th set). After outlasting 8-time Wimbledon champion Roger Federer 13-11 in the fifth set Anderson maintained his composure for the second round in a row and this time won 26-24! This was quite an amazing mental performance because most players who have beaten Federer at Wimbledon have gone on to lose their next match. (In fact, this is one reason why I picked Isner to win.) One must spare a thought for John Isner who was trying to reach his first major final, and now in addition to the infamous 70-68 win he will be known for the 26-24 loss. Maybe he will be responsible for the implementation of the Isner rule, which leads to some kind of terminating mechanism for decisive sets in the majors, especially Wimbledon. I would endorse some kind of tiebreak (I would suggest it should be a 10-point match tiebreak) that would occur qt either 6-all or 9-all or even 12-all. But there must be a rule change to prevent 3 hour final sets.

Novak Djokovic (SRB) [12] d. Rafael Nadal (ESP) [2] 6-4 3-6 7-6(9) 3-6 10-8. This was a very high quality match that lasted 5 hours 15 minutes played over 2 days. Since it was the second match one after the Isner-Anderson marathon there was no way that it could be completed on men's semifinal Friday. The competitors showed why the 52-match Nadal-Djokovic rivalry is even more compelling than the Federer-Nadal and Federer-Djokovic rivalries. Djokovic extends his lead to 27-25 against Nadal, one of the very few players on tour who have a head-to-head lead against Nadal after more than 4 meetings. One of the key moments of this match was the 3rd set tiebreaker. Winning the 3rd set is always important in  a 5-set match but in this match the player who won the 3rd set would know they would be able to go to sleep with a lead until the match resumed the next day. Djokovic had to save 3 set points in that tiebreaker before he was able to close it out 11-9. The fifth set was an amazing, tension-filled, high-quality affair. Djokovic had to save five breakpoints during the course of the deciding set. With the advantage of serving first, those breakpoints were not match points. It was not until the 16th game that Nadal finally was forced to save a match/break point which he did with an astonishingly gutsy drop shot winner. He had previously escaped two  or three 0-30 deficits but then in the 18th game of the 5th set he was unable to do it again and slipped (literally) to go down 0-40 and lose his serve and the match. 


MEN'S FINAL P
REVIEW

Djokovic can exult that it appears as if he has returned to his old form, as evinced by his ability to defeat Nadal in a tough 5-set match. His reward is that he has an excellent opportunity to continue to add to his haul of major titles. From 2011-2016 Djokovic won 11 of 22 majors but he had not even reached a final since. If he beats Anderson in the championship match (where he is the prohibitive favorite after the South African survived two consecutive ultra-long matches in the last 4 days) Djokovic will get to 13 major titles, which is only 4 behind Nadal and 7 behind Federer. There's still a possibility that if he returns to the level which earned him 4 the Nole slam in June 2016 he could exceed Federer's major total before his retirement. Most people are not giving Anderson any chance to win but I am not one of them. I think it will be closer than people think, and I would not be surprised if Anderson wins a single set, probably because I think there will be a tiebreaker or two. Anderson will be surprised by the number of his serves that are returned into play, and its hard to imagine his movement will be even 50% of its usual level as a result of the extended time he has spent on court this fortnight, which should be dispositive.

MadProfessah's pick: Djokovic.

Friday, July 13, 2018

2018 WIMBLEDON: Men's Semifinals Preview (and Predictions)


Here are my predictions for the men's semifinals at the Wimbledon Championships for 2018. This year I correctly predicted 2 of 4 men's quarterfinals and correctly predicted 4 of 4 women's quarterfinals. Last year I correctly predicted 2 of 2 men's semifinals and 2 of 2 women's semifinals. I also predicted this year's women's semifinals.

Roger Federer (SUI) [1] Kevin Anderson (RSA) [8] vs John Isner (USA) [9].  Things were going so well for the 8-time major champion Roger Federer in the tournament right before he was shockingly dismissed in a 5-set thriller, losing 13-11 in the decider. He had equaled his record of 34 consecutive sets won after taking the first two sets of his match with Kevin Anderson, who had never won a set against him, and he sported a 266-2 record in majors when up 2-0. However, somehow Anderson maintained his composure and won the last 3 sets and the match, to reach his first Wimbledon semifinal. There he will face a familiar opponent, John Isner who will also be playing in his first Wimbledon semifinal which is also his first major final. Isner has not had his serve broken through 5 matches, the best of any of the semifinalists. Of course this means that he has played a lot of tiebreakers in this tournament, but Isner plays a lot of tiebreaks in every tournament. At age 33, Isner is clearly playing the best tennis of his career. And instead of facing the best grasscourt player of all time to reach a major final, he will face Anderson, someone with whom he has a 8-to-3 head-to-head lead. There's also the statistic that the last 3 people to beat Federer before the final went on to lose their next match (Raonic in 2016, Stakhovsky in 2013 and Tsonga in 2011). Aderson is serious enough that I believe this will be at least a 4-set match and *probably* not a reprise of Isner's 70-68 match with Mahut, but there are going to be a LOT of aces between the two, and not a lot of rallies. PREDICTION: Isner.

Rafael Nadal (ESP) [2] vs. Novak Djokovic (SRB) [12]. Although the Federer-Nadal rivalry is more heralded, but the Djokovic-Nadal rivalry is at least as significant to men's tennis. The two have played 51 times and Djokovic leads 26-25. But this doesn't tell the entire story because they have met 13 times at majors and Nadal leads 9-4. Nadal-Djokovic LII is happening in the semifinals of Wimbledon, where Djokovic is a 3-time champion (he has never lost a final here, even despite playing Federer twice!) and Nadal has won twice in 5 finals, with this year being the 10th anniversary of his very first win here (over Federer) in the Greatest Match of All Time. I am fairly confident whomever wins this semifinal will win the 2018 title over whomever wins the other semifinal. The real question that will be answered by the result of this match is whether Djokovic is back and ready to compete at the very top of men's tennis again. From the looks of things, that answer is yes. We know Nadal is already at the top of his game (after all he is the World #1 ranked player, and will probably end the year at #1 unless Djokovic manages to win both of the last two majors of the year or Federer wins in New York. Regardless, this should be a battle of epic proportions. PREDICTION: Djokovic.

Tuesday, June 26, 2018

TENNIS TUESDAY: Coric Outplays Federer In Halle; Kvitova Wins 5th Title of 2018; Cilic Outlasts Nole On Grass; ATP #1 Flips Again; France Picks Amelie


FEDERER LOSES TO CORIC IN SEARCH OF 10TH HALLE TITLE (IN 12TH FINAL)
After saving 2 match points against an inspired Benoit Paire 2 rounds before, Roger Federer's luck finally ran out when a determined 21-year-old Borna Coric outplayed the world's best grass-court player 7-6(6) 3-6 6-2 to win his first grass-court title and notch his first win over the G.O.A.T. It was Federer's 12th final in Halle and he was seeking his 10th title there, but now he is 9-3, having lost to Corci (2018), Lleyton Hewitt (2010) and Tommy Haas (2012).

FEDERER SWAPS RANKING PLACES WITH NADAL (AGAIN)
Federer's failure to defend his 2017 Halle title means that he ends up with, 8,220 ranking points, 50 less than Rafael Nadal, so the two will swap places at the top of the ATP rankings again. his has happened several times this year already. However, unlike last year, this time as the defending champion Federer has 2000 points to defend at Wimbledon while Nadal has almost none (180) so it is likely Federer wil not be able to regain #1 until the end of the summer hard court season.

CILIC OUTLASTS DJOKOVIC TO WIN SECOND QUEEN'S CLUB TITLE
Novak Djokovic is showing vastly improved form and demonstrated this by reaching the final (and earning championship point!) against 2017 Wimbledon and 2017 Queens Club finalist Marin Cilic. Despite boasting a 14-1 record against Cilic, Djokovic lost the match by being broken (for teh first time in the tournament!) i the 3rd set and his Croat opponent was able to serve out the win 5-7 7-6(4) 6-3. Cilic clearly deserves to be near the pinnacle of the men's game, having reached two major finals in the last year. Even though Djokovic is improving, this loss shows h's not back to 100% and for the first time in over a decade, he goes an entire 12 month period without winning an ATP tour title.

KVITOVA SHOWS SHE IS IN NEAR PEAK FORM WITH FIFTH 2018 WTA TITLE
The 2014 and 2011 Wimbledon champion Petra Kvitova is demonstrating her return to form with another grass court title, this time in Birmingham over her friend Magdalena Rybarikova 4-6 6-2 6-1. Kvitova leads the tour with 5 titles in 2018.

AMELIE MAURESMO NAMED CAPTAIN OF FRANCE'S DAVIS CUP TEAM
In other good news, 2-time major champion and former World #1 Amelie Mauresmo has been named the first female captain of France's Davis Cup team. Interestingly, Julien Benneteau will take over coaching France's Fed Cup team. Both appointments go into effect for the 2019 and 2020 seasons.

Sunday, June 10, 2018

2018 FRENCH OPEN: Men's Final Preview (and Semifinals Review)

Rafael Nadal (ESP) [4] vs. Dominic Thiem (AUT) [7].
Here are my predictions for the men's final at the 2018 French Open. Last year I correctly predicted Rafael Nadal would defeat Stan Wawrinka in the 2017 final. This year I correctly predicted 4 of 4 women's quarterfinals2 of 2 women's semifinals, 2 of 2 men's seminfinals and 3 of 4 men's quarterfinals.


MEN'S FINAL PREVIEW

Rafael Nadal (ESP) [1] d. Juan Martin del Potro (ARG) [5] 6-4 6-1 6-2.  Surprisingly, this match was less competitive than the match Nadal played against a different Argentine, the diminutive Diego Schwartzman, in the previous round. Del Potro apparently suffered a hip injury midway through the first set and the ruthless Spaniard took advantage of the diminished mobility to punish and pummel Del Potro into submission.


Dominic Thiem (AUT) [7] d. Marco Cecchinato (ITA) 7-5 7-6(10) 6-1. nThis was a surprisingly competitive match between the #8 player in the world and someone barely into the Top 100. That is a strong statement in support of the play of the Italian, who had an almost magical run here in Paris which was just barely stopped before he could reach the final, but not before he has won several hundred thousamd Euros as an unseeded 2018 Roland Garros finalist.

MEN'S FINAL PREVIEW

Thiem is the only player to have won 2 sets on clay against Nadal in the same match in the last three years. He did it twice (2018 Madrid quarterfinals and 2017 Rome quarterfinal) and is clearly the second best clay court player in the world. However, the distance between the best player and the second best is huge, as Nadal has demonstrated time and time again. Nadal joins his nemesis/frenemy Roger Federer in the record books as the second man to play in 11 major finals on the same surface. (Federer has done it at Wimbledon, of course and is 8-3 with 1 loss to Nadal in 2008 and 2 losses to Novak Djkokovic in 2015 and 2016). Nadal is 11-0 in finals (and semifinals!) at Roland Garros and has only ever lost two matches there: 4th round to Robin Soderling in 2009 and in the quarterfinal of 2015.) It's hard to imagine  a more prohibitive favorite than Nadal. Amazingly, it would mean that for the second year n a row Federer and Nadal would have split the first two majors of the year between them.

MadProfessah's pick: Nadal.

Sunday, March 25, 2018

2018 MIAMI OPEN: Halep, Federer, Djokovic, Wozniacki, Serena *ALL* Lose Early!


World #1's Roger Federer and Simona Halep lost back-to-back matches at the 2018 Miami Open on Saturday. Halep lost to Aggie Radwanska in 3 sets while Federer lost to Thanasi Kokkinakis of Australia. Kokkinakis is currently ranked #175 in the world but has been as high as #69 and is widely considered one of the more talented Australian youngsters. Federer's loss was more significant because it means that Rafael Nadal will regain the #1 ranking when the tournament is over since Federer was not able to defend his 2017 title here.

However, the loss of the top seeds was just the latest upsets in a string of (somewhat) surprising defeats at this year's Miami Open. First 8-time champion Serena Williams was easily dismissed by 2018 Indian Wells champ Naomi Osaka in the first round, Novak Djokovic's 16-match win streak in Miami was snapped by Benoit Paire of France. Additionally, 2018 Australian Open champion Caroline Wozniacki lost a 3-set thriller to Monica Puig.

Sunday, October 15, 2017

Federer-Nadal XXXVIII: Federer Beats Nadal In 4th Final In 2017 To Win Shanghai Masters


Roger Federer won his 94th career ATP tour title on Sunday when he defeated his arch-rival (and current World #1) Rafael Nadal 6-4 6-3 in 71 minutes to win the Shanghai Masters. Federer is now tied with Ivan Lendl for second place on the all-time list, behind Jimmy Connors 109 titles. It was the 4th time he had beaten Nadal in a final this year  (Australian Open, Indian Wells, Miami Open and Shanghai Masters). He has now beaten him 5 times in a row and has not lost to Nadal since the 2014 Australian Open semifinal.

This match was the 38th meeting between the two rivals, which Nadal now leads 23-15. Even though the scoreline appears as if today's match was close, in reality Federer never faced a breakpoint, while he converted 3 of 7 breakpoints he earned against Nadal. He had 10 aces to Nadal's 4. Nadal was riding a 16 match win streak which included 3 titles (US Open, Beijing Open and China Open). He is the #1 ranked player in the world and is still 1950 points ahead of Federer, with only 3000 points at stake for the rest of the 2017 season. It is almost certain that Nadal will end the year at #1, for the first time since 2013. Nadal's year-to-date record is 61-10.

Tuesday, September 26, 2017

TENNIS TUESDAY: Belgium-France Davis Cup Final; Fedal Thrills At Laver Cup; Caro Wins 1st 2017 Title; Many Upsets in Wuhan


LAVER CUP ENDS IN DRAMATIC FASHION WITH FEDERER-KYRGIOS NAILBITER
The inaugural Laver Cup, featuring a Team World (John Isner, Frances Tiafoe, Nick Kyrgios, Jack Sock, Sam Querrey, Denis Shopavolov) versus a Team Europe (Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Marin Cilic, Sascha Zverev, Dominic Thiem, Tomas Berdych) happened this weekend and on the third day, the entire match came down to a 3rd set match tiebreak between Kyrgios and Federer where Kyrgios was up 5-2 and had match point at 8-9 on Federer's serve. If Kyrgios had won, the entire match would have been tied at 12-12 and 1 set of doubles (probably with Nadal and Federer teaming up again) would have been played. Instead, Federer won his two service points to go up 10-9 and then won Kyrgios' first service point to win the match tiebreaker 11-9 and clinch the 2017 Laver Cup for his team.

DAVIS CUP FINAL SET: BELGIUM VERSUS FRANCE
Two weekends ago the Davis Cup semifinals occurred and France easily beat Serbia (without Novak Djokovic) while Belgium came back from 2-1 down to defeat Davis Cup powerhouse Australia 3-2 when David Goffin and Steve Darcis won their reverse singles matches on the final day, with Goffin coming back against Nick Kyrgios to even the tie. France will host Belgium on an indoor hard court  November 24-26 in Lille.

WOZNIACKI WINS FIRST TITLE IN 2017 ON 7TH ATTEMPT
Coming into the final of the Toray Pan Pacific Open in Japan where she is the defending champion, Caroline Wozniacki had played in 6 finals in 2017 and lost every single one of them. However, in Japan she dispatched World #1 Garbine Muguruza 6-2 6-0 in the semifinals and then Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in the final 6-0 7-5 to win her 3rd title in Japan. The former #1 is on track to reach the WTA Tour finals.

KVITOVA, KEYS, KONTA, KERBER, KUZNETSOVA AND STEPHENS CRASH OUT OF WUHAN
The race to reach the WTA Tour Final is heating up during the Asian swing of the year. Both 2017 U.S. Open finalists, Madison Keys and Sloane Stephens lost in the first round of the Wuhan Open. Also getting bounced early were Jo Konta, Angie Kerber, and Sveta Kuznetsova. Petra Kvitova, 2-time Wuhan champion, lost the longest WTA match of 2017 in 3 tiebreak sets  and 3 hours 34 minutes to Peng Shuai

Monday, September 11, 2017

2017 US OPEN: Nadal Wins 16th Major



As I expected, Rafael Nadal defeated Kevin Anderson 6-3 6-4 6-4 to win the 2017 U.S. Open, claiming his 16th major title and 3rd in New York. He improved to 16-7 in major finals and reached the finals of 3 of the four majors in 2017, thus cementing his hold on the World #1 ranking for the year. Only Gilles Muller was able to beat him before the final round of a major this year, and that took an extraordinary 28-game final set. Roger Federer  and Nadal split the majors this year, with Federer winning the Australia Open (d. Nadal) and Wimbledon (d. Marin Cilic), and Nadal winning the French (d. Stan Wawrinka) and the U.S. Open. The other members of the big four, Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray failed to reach a major final in 2017 and have basically ceded the rest of the season to their older rivals.

Nadal's win means that just like this point last year, Nadal, 31, and Federer, 36, are again 3 major titles apart, but instead of being at 17 and 14 they have both separated themselves from the previous greats of the sport (Pete Sampras at 14) and now they are at 19 and 16 with the very real possibility they will both reach the once-inconceivable number of 20 singles slams each. Who will be the G.OA.T.?

Sunday, September 10, 2017

2017 US OPEN: Men's Final Preview

RAFAEL NADAL (ESP) [1] VS. KEVIN ANDERSON (RSA) [28]
Here are my predictions for the men's final at the US Open for 2017. Last year I correctly predicted Stan Wawrinka would beat Novak Djokovic. This year I did not predict that  Sloane Stephens would beat Madison Keys in the women's final but I did correctly predict 2 of 2 men's semifinals1 of 2 women's semifinals3 of 4 women's quarterfinals and 2 of 4 men's quarterfinals. 

MEN'S FINAL PREVIEW

The men's final will be between World #1 Rafael Nadal and #28 seed Kevin Anderson. The main story of this year's U.S. Open on the men's side is the absence of "the usual contenders" such as defending champion Stan Wawrinka, 2016 U.S. Open finalist Novak Djokovic, World #2 Andy Murray, and 2016 U.S. Open semifinalist Kei Nishikori. Because of this, Nadal has not faced a single Top 15 player on his way to the 2017 U.S. Open final. He even avoided having to face World #3 Roger Federer due to the inspired play of Juan Martin del Potro in the quarterfinal. On the other half of the draw, Kevin Anderson has reached his first major final after many seeds fell early, leaving #12 Pablo Carreno Busta as the highest seed remaining in the 4th round. Regardless, you can only play against the people that the draw presents you, and so it is very likely that Nadal will win his 16th major title and 3rd U.S. Open today, cementing his hold on the #1 year-end ranking. MadProfessah's prediction: Nadal.

Friday, September 08, 2017

2017 US OPEN: Men's Semifinals Preview


Here are my predictions for the men's semifinals at the US Open for 2017. Last year I correctly predicted 2 of 2 men's semifinals1 of 2 women's semifinals4 of 4 women's quarterfinals and correctly predicted 3 of 4 men's quarterfinalsThis year I correctly predicted 1 of 2 women's semifinals.

Rafael Nadal (ESP) [1] vs. Juan Martin Del Potro (ESP) [24] Roger Federer (SUI) [3] For the second time, Juan Martin del Potro has served as the spoiler to prevent a meeting between Federer and Nadal at the U.S. Open, which is the only major the two have not played a match against each other. In 2009, del Potro beat Nadal and then Federer to win his only major in New York City. He has already played the match of the tournament in his 4th round escape from Dominic Thiem when he was down two sets and two match points. I actually argued Del Potro was a better opponent for Federer because he had a losing record (5W-16L) versus Thiem's 2W-1L. But, unfortunately Federer did not play his best tennis in the quarterfinal and Del Potro was boosted by the crowd at key moments to come through. The third set tiebreak was pivotal. Federer had 4 set points and made multiple mental errors (like serving to Del Potro's forehand, failing to make an easy backhand volley) and ended up losing it on Del Potro's first set point (on an ill-advised serve-and-volley point). Federer admitted in press that he never felt like all aspects of his game were together in this tournament and that he probably would not have done well against Nadal if they had met.  Del Potro has a pretty good record against the Spaniard on hard courts (5W-3L) but has a losing 5W-8L record overall. Nadal is the #1 player in the world and has an amazing opportunity to win his 16th major without having faced a single Top 10 player (Del Potro has already faced and defeated #6 and #3). My heart would like to see Del Potro win this but my head says that this may be too big an ask even for someone as big as Del Potro. Mad Professah's pick: Nadal.

Kevin Anderson (RSA) [27] vs Pablo Carreno Busta (ESP) [12].  Both of these players are in their first ever major semifinal and they have the good fortune of facing each other so that one of them will make it to their first-ever major final. For both players, they know they are very unlikely ever to be in such a position again. So the result of the match will probably come down to who wants it more. That being said one cannot discount  the matchup and so far it has been a good one for Anderson, who leads the head-to-head 2W-0L including in Cincinnati just a few weeks ago. Carreno Busta is currently the higher ranked player and is playing in his second major of the year where he has made a quarterfinal so he should have confidence but I think he still may be overwhelmed by the occasion. Usually in these situations the edge goes to the better mover and that would be Carreno Busta but I think Anderson's ability to hold his serve so easily and put the pressure back on his opponent will be deicisive. Mad Professah's pick: Anderson.

Tuesday, September 05, 2017

2017 US OPEN: Men's Quarterfinals Preview


Here are my predictions for the women's quarterfinals at the US Open for 2017. Last year I correctly predicted 4 of 4 women's quarterfinals and correctly predicted 3 of 4 men's quarterfinalsThis year I have also predicted the women's quarterfinals.

Rafael Nadal (ESP) [1] vs Andrey Rublev (RUS) David Goffin (BEL) [9] Nadal and Federer have never played at the U.S. Open despite playing over 150 matches between the two of them in New York. Now they are both just one match away from meeting in the semifinals on Friday. Nadal will not even have to face a seeded player as 19-year-old Andrey Rublev became the first of the #NextGen ATP players (that includes people like Frances Tiafoe, Taylor Fritz, Denis Shapovalov and, technically, Sasha Zverev) to reach a major quarterfinal by dismissing a clearly injured David Goffin in straight sets before a subdued crowd that included yours truly on the wretched temporary Louis Armstrong court. Nadal has not been playing his best tennis but he looked sharp in eliminating the always-tricky Aleksandr Dolgopolov and now the chances seem very high that Federer and Nadal will meet for the fourth time in 2017, with Federer having won all 3 previous meeting, but is still down 14-23 in their storied head-to-head. Rublev is clearly talented, but is a 19-year-old playing in his first major quarterfinal going to beat a 15-time major champion? He's good, but not that good. Mad Professah's pick: Nadal.

Roger Federer (SUI) [3] vs Juan Martin Del Potro (ESP) [24] Dominic Thiem (AUT) [6] In the highlight of the tournament (and almost certainly one of the best matches of the year), Juan Martin del Potro came back from losing the first two sets 6-1 6-2 in under an hour to defeat the #6 player in the world, Dominic Thiem of Austria. For sheer melodrama and emotional wallop, this match was exceptional. Del Potro has a special place in tennis fans' hearts because he is a really nice guy and he has mouth-dropping power. That he continues to persevere after having ridiculously bad luck with injury after beating Federer in the 2009 U.S. Open final is inspirational. Sadly, I didn't have a ticket to Grandstand while the match was being played but I was able to be part of the standing room only to see him save two match points (down 3-5 in the 4th set) with two consecutive service aces and then dominate the 4th set tiebreak after Thiem blinked when serving for the match at 5-4. In the fifth set everything was on serve until Thiem doublefaulted on breakpoint and match point at 4-5. It will be a match that will be talked about for years! The end result is probably good for Federer, because I think he has a better chance against del Potro (who he leads 12-5 head-to-head instead of Thiem who actually leads his head-to-head with Federer 2-1! Since Del Potro mostly uses slice on his backhand instead of bludgeoning the ball on both wings I think an in-form Federer should not have much to worry about, and will probably enjoy the chance of revenge for the 2009 loss. Mad Professah's pick: Federer.

Sam Querrey (USA) [17] vs Kevin Anderson (RSA) [27].  Sam Querrey is just going from strength to strength as he approaches nearly 30 years old. Many think of him as a smaller, lesser John Isner but Querrey is showing that he may be the more significant player in the end, having delivered two major upsets at Wimbledon in the last two years by defeating two defending champions (Djokovic in 2016 and Murray in 2017). Also, one round after Isner was dispatched by the serve-and-volley skill of Mischa Zverev, Querrey showed how one defeats such a tactic (with blazing passing shots). Honestly, Querrey's dismissal of Zverev in 77 minutes losing only 5 games was as close to being in the zone as we have seen this tournament and is probably the second best match of the tournament (behind Del Potro-Thiem). Anderson tends to play his best tennis in New York and these two play a very similar style of big man tennis which is basically reached its peak in the play of Marin Cilic. In these situations the edge goes to the better mover and that would be Querrey. Mad Professah's pick: Querrey.

Pablo Carreno Busta (ESP) [12] vs Diego Schwartzman (ARG) [29] Lucas Pouille (FRA) [16].  This was the part of the draw most affected by the withdrawal of Andy Murray as the #2 seed after the draw was announced on the Friday before the tournament started.  Schwartzman defeated #5 seed Marin Cilic and #16 seed Lucas Pouille en route to reaching his first major quarterfinal. Many are remarking on the power and stamina of the diminutive Colombian (he's 5-foot-7).  Schwartzman leads the tour at the percentage of service return games won in 2017 (ahead of World #1 Nadal who is at #2 in this stat) so you can see that he is a tough out. However I was courtside for his Pouille victory and he was clearly struggling with an upper thigh injury (heavily strapped and he wasn't moving that well after he won the first two sets). Carreno Busta is playing his best tennis and is going for his second major quarterfinal of the year after defeating the darling of the tournament, 18-year-old  Canadian phenom, Dennis Shapovalov who dismissed Jo-Wilfried Tsonga  in straight sets in the second round. In some since it doesn't matter who wins this match because I don't think they will be reaching the final, but I still go with the Spaniard. Mad Professah's pick: Carreno Busta.

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