2014 US OPEN: Men's Final Preview

Here are my predictions for the men's final at the 2014 US Open. This year I have correctly predicted 2 of 2 women's semifinals, 2 of 4 women's quarterfinals, 0 of 2 men's semifinals and 3 of 4 men's quarterfinals at the U.S. Open. Last year I incorrectly predicted Novak Djokovic would defeat Rafael Nadal in the 2013 U.S. Open men's final. This year I correctly predicted that Serena Williams would defeat Caroline Wozniacki in the women's final.

WHAT HAPPENED: Men's Semifinal Review

 Kei Nishikori (JPN) [10] d. Novak Djokovic (SRB) [1] 6-4 1-6 7-6(4) 6-3. Somehow Nishikori  was able to out-play the World #1 player, Novak Djokovic, who had previously been thought of as (one of) the most physically fit player(s) on tour. But, despite playing two consecutive four-hour, five-set matches the slight (5-foot-10, 150-pounds) Japanese player appeared to be the player with more gas in the tank for the majority of the clash with the 7-time major champion. The key moment of the match was the third set tiebreak after splitting the first two sets. Surprisingly it was Djokovic who blinked in the tiebreak, hitting four unforced errors, including a double fault to lose the momentum in the match. He then went down an early break in the 4th set and Nishikori nursed his lead and then broke Djokovic in the very last game to earn the biggest win of his career to date.

Marin Cilic (CRO) [14] vs Roger Federer (SUI) [2] 6-3 6-4 6-4.  Despite having never beaten the 17-time major champion in five meetings, Marin Cilic came into this match brimming with confidence and proceeded to demonstrate why from the very first point. Blasting untouchable and unreturnable serves into all four corners of the court and moving his 6-foot-6 frame agilely on the punishing surface to hit overpowering groundstrokes, the #14 seed was simply too much for the All-Time Great to handle. Federer served about as well as Cilic (13 aces for Cilic to 12 aces for Federer, 56% versus 61% service percentage, respectively) and also won 50% of his breakpoints but the problem was that Cilic had four times as many break chances (and thus four times as many breaks). Before the semifinal I had suspected that Cilic could be problematic for Federer, speculating that he could cause the same kind of problems for his one-handed backhand that the powerful Juan Martin del Potro had posed for Federer in 2009 and that's basically what happened. Still it was pretty shocking to see both the #1 and #2 seeds lose within hours of each other, confirming that a new era in men's tennis has begun.

WHAT WILL HAPPEN: Men's Final Preview

 Kei Nishikori (JPN) [10] vs Marin Cilic (CRO) [14].

For the first time since the 2005 Australian Open (Marat Safin d. Lleyton Hewitt) no one from the Trivalry at the top of men's tennis (Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic) will be contesting a major final. CBS advertised Monday's final as the first U.S. Open final between "double-digit seeds" which is true, but also besides the point. There are several talented players who now realize they have what it takes to reach a major final, and win it: Stanislas Wawrinka (who actually did it in January this year at the Australian Open) and any of the numerous first time major semifinalists of 2014: Grigor Dimitrov, Milos Raonic, Ernests Gulbis and Kei Nishikori. Just behind them there are players who have squandered past opportunities to break open the monopoly at the top of men's tennis, players like Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Tomas Berdych and even plucky David Ferrer and mercurial Gael Monfils. It will be fascinating to see which of this crop of players (or perhaps someone else?) becomes a first-time major champion in 2015.

However, first we know that we will have a first-time major champion at the 2014 U.S. Open in Cilic or Nishikori. Head-to-head Nishikori leads Cilic 5-2 including 4-2 on hard-courts but only 1-all in 5-set matches played in New York. This is an ominous sign for the Japanese player because although he is widely regarded as the more talented of the two players, that doesn't mean he will win this match. I fully expect Nishikori to reach more major finals in the future, but I can't say the same for Cilic. I do, however, expect Cilic to win this match, especially if he plays anywhere near the level he played at against Federer. I am convinced that the time he spent away from the court due to the doping suspension last year has mentally toughened Cilic for this experience and I have to believe that the sheer volume of tennis that Nishikori has played will catch up to him at some point before the tournament is over.

It is true that his backhand cross court to Nishikori's backhand will not be as overpowering (in fact, Nishikori has to be given the edge in that department) but if Cilic serves with the same devastating effect that he has all tournament long it will be tough for Nishikori to stay with him. Then again, Cilic is not a better server than Milos Raonic and Nishikori outlasted him in the 4th round, but Cilic is a much much better mover, which is the key advantage has over most of his opponents. By limiting Nishikori's advantage in this area and stretching his advantage in the service area, the Croatian should win his first(and only) major title.

MadProfessah's pick: Cilic.

2014 US OPEN: Men's Semifinals Preview

Here are my predictions for the men's semifinals at the US Open for 2014. Last year I correctly predicted  4 of 4 women's quarterfinals, 2 of 2 women's semifinals, 2 of 2 men's semifinals and 2 of 4 men's quarterfinals. This year I have correctly predicted 2 of 2 women's semifinals, 2 of 4 women's quarterfinals and 3 of 4 men's quarterfinals at the U.S. Open.

Novak Djokovic (SRB) [1] vs Stan Wawrinka (SUI) [3] Kei Nishikori (JPN) [10]. Djokovic handily won the quarterfinal clash between U.S. Open champions when he beat Andy Murray in four sets, demonstrating again why he has been in the final in New York for the last four consecutive years. Nishikori has had to win not one but two epic 5-set battles in a row to reach his first major semifinal over two Top 5 seeds (Milos Raonic and  Stan Wawrinka). The fact that he has to face World #1 Novak Djokovic who has shown again and again that he is willing to do whatever it takes (i.e. stay on court for nearly 6 hours) to win a major title is unfortunate. It's somewhat interesting that both of these players have "celebrity" coaches, with Djokovic working with 6-time major champion Boris Becker and Nishikori working with French Open champion Michael Chang. It's hard to believe that Nishikori will have the resources to hang with Djokovic for much more than 3 or possibly 4 sets. However if you look at their head-to-head record the two have only played each other twice (in 2010 and 2011) and each won once. The two were supposed to have played in the semifinals of Miami this year after Nishikori had a breakthrough win over Roger Federer but Nishikori's body betrayed him and he had to default. I doubt Nishikori will default such an important, historic match, but I seriously doubt it will be much of a  match. Mad Professah's pick: Djokovic.

Marin Cilic (CRO) [14] vs Roger Federer (SUI) [2].  Despite the fact that these two players have met five times with one player winning every time does not mean this match will be a blowout for that player. Federer recognizes this fact in his commentary on this match because Cilic is playing tennis at a quantum leap higher than he did before his questionable suspension from last year. He finally earned a win against Gilles Simon in the 4th round (after 4 consecutive losses on hard courts) and he sprinted past Tomas Berdych in a straight sets quarterfinal win despite a 3-5 head-to-head deficit. So, Cilic (and his celebrity coach Goran Ivanisevic) will take the winless record as a challenge. The two played a few weeks ago in Toronto and Federer barely prevailed after blowing more than a fistful of match points in the second set. If Federer is not sharp from the first ball in, he will not be getting opportunities to mount an amazing comeback victory like the one he pulled out against Gael Monfils in the quarterfinals. That five set win after losing the first two sets  in the quarterfinals demonstrates the burning desire that Federer has to reach another (his 26th!) major final. Federer thinks that Cilic's game is reminiscent of Monfils' (big serve, tall guy with long reach and powerful forehand) but the better comparison might be Juan Martin del Potro (very tall guy with huge serves, and a great mover with devastating power on both wings). The truth is that Cilic is probably somewhere in between Monfils and del Potro, but Federer probably has the tools to deal with whatever the Croat brings to the court today. Mad Professah's pick: Federer.