2017 FRENCH OPEN: Women's Final Preview (and Semifinals Review)

Jelena Ostapenko (LAT) vs. Simona Halep (ROU) [3] 

Here are my predictions for the women's final at the 2017 French Open. Last year I incorrectly predicted Serena Williams would beat Garbine Muguruza in the women's final and correctly predicted Novak Djokovic would beat Andy Murray in the men's final. This year I correctly predicted 1 of 2 women's semifinals, 2 of 2 men's semifinals, 3 of 4 women's quarterfinals and 4 of 4 men's quarterfinals. 

Below is my review of the women's semifinals and my preview of the women's final.

WOMEN'S SEMIFINALS REVIEW

Jelena Ostapenko (LAT) d. Timea Bacsinszky (SUI) [30] 7-6(4) 3-6 6-3.  The birthday bash between the two birthday girls was won by the younger player, to my surprise. Ostapenko, who turned 20 years old on Thursday, has now hit 245 winners in 6 matches, which is more than any of the male remaining players in the draw.  She outlasted her more experienced and 8-years-older former doubles partner to reach her very first major final, the lowest ranked player to do so in well over thirty years. This was a surprise because the young Latvian was playing in her very first major semifinal while the 28-year-old Swiss player was in her 2nd major semifinal at Roland Garros. It was expected that Bacsinszky would figure out a way to win this match, and she did do well to win the second set and at least make it a match instead of a mismatch. In the end, though, Ostapenko's power was too much for Bacsinszky to handle.

Simona Halep (ROU) [3] d. Karolina Pliskova (CZE) [2] 6-4 3-6 6-3. This was a contest with the World #1 ranking at stake. Pliskova needed to win to become World #1, while Halep needs to win this match and the final in order to claim the top spot in women's tennis. Halep demonstrated what an advantage her movement and defensive prowess gives her over one of the hardest hitters on the tour who is most definitely NOT one of its best movers. In fact, Halep has a pretty good record (13-3) against other Big Babes like Madison Keys, Petra Kvitova and Pliskova. The Czech player did well to sneak out a break and a hold to snatch the second set but Halep displayed her newly developed mental toughness and just continued her astounding ball retrieving to force Pliskova to go for another line and eventually hit another error (attempted winner) and lose the match.

WOMEN'S FINAL PREVIEW

Simona Halep (ROU) [3] vs. Jelena Ostapenko (LAT). It must be admitted that Simona Halep is the favorite to win this match. Ostapenko is unseeded and an unseeded player has not won a major final on the women's side in the open era, although it has happened (rarely) on the men's side  (Goran Ivanisevic at Wimbledon in 2001, Boris Becker at Wimbledon in 1985). But this does not mean that the hard-hitting Latvian has no chance of winning on Saturday. Anyone who is hitting more winners than anyone else in the tournament, and whose average speed of her forehand is faster than World #1 Andy Murray's clearly has a chance to win any match she plays. She will be facing Halep, who faced a match point in the second set tiebreaker against another hard-hitting player in the quarterfinal, Elina Svitolina. Ostapenko should take a look at that match because Svitolina basically blew Halep off the court for nearly 90 minutes, wracking up huge 5-0 and 5-1 leads in the first two sets. The key point, though, is that despite facing those huge deficits Halep did not give up and ended up winning that match by winning the deciding third set 6-0!


I expect Halep will win this match, but it will probably not be in straight sets. I think Ostapenko will have a very good first set but that as the finish line gets closer she will get more and more nervous and Halep will repeat her performance against Svitolina (without allowing such a huge deficit this time). It is also very possible that Halep will follow the blueprint of her match with Pliskova and stay close enough to her hard-hitting opponent to frustrate her with her defense and draw errors. I think this will be harder to do, because Ostapenko moves better than Pliskova and Bacsinsky tried this game plan against Ostapenko and it didn't work out that well, but Halep has many more weapons than Bacsinszky. I do believe that Halep is the mentally tougher player, it says something that Ostapenko has been in 3 career finals in the last 9 months and has lost all three. Halep is a woman on a mission to finally win her first major, and the bonus is that she will claim the World #1 ranking as well.

MadProfessah's pick: Halep.

2017 FRENCH OPEN: Women's Semifinals Preview

Here are my predictions for the women's semifinals at the 2017 French Open. Last year I correctly predicted 2 of 2 women's semifinals and correctly predicted 2 of 2 men's semifinals. This year I correctly predicted 3 of 4 women's quarterfinals and 4 of 4 men's quarterfinals.

Jelena Ostapenko (LAT) vs. Timea Bacsinszky (SUI) [30]. Amazingly, this semifinal is being played on the birthday of both players: Ostapenko is turning 20 while Bacsinszky is turning 28. Ostapenko is playing in her very first major semifinal, having extended her winning streak to 4-0 against Caroline Wozniacki in the quarterfinal, while Bacsinszky is plying in her second, after dispatching the French crowd's favorite player, Kiki Mladenovic in straight sets in their quarterfinal. The two have never met before so this will be a new experience for both players. On one hand, Ostapenko is so young that the significance of her accomplishment has probably not sunk in yet. This is the blessing of youth, but it usually does not last for the entire duration of the match. For Bacsinszky, she has been here before (in the 2015 Roland Garros semifinal) and will most likely use that experience and her superior movement to outlast her hard-hitting opponent. After all, Bacsinszky has already showed that her superior defense could defeat the offense of Mladenovic and Venus Williams already in this year's tournament and will almost certainly repeat this performance to reach her first major final. PREDICTION: Bacsinszky.

Karolina Pliskova (CZE) [2] vs. Simona Halep (ROU) [3].  I still believe the most important match in the draw was the showdown between Elina Svitolina and Simona Halep in the quarterfinal. Obviously Halep ended up winning it, but it was an incredibly tense and thrilling affair. Svitolina quite simply outhit Halep for nearly 2 sets. She wracked up huge leads in both sets, going up 5-1 in both of them. In the first one she ended up winning 6-3, but in the second she ended up losing 5 games in a row to go down 5-6. Then, Svitolina survived 4 set points on her serve (starting at 0-40) to force a tiebreak where she earned a match point at 6-5 but lost that point and 2 others in a row to lose the 2nd set. The Ukrainian then completely "lost the plot" and failed to win a game in a 20 minute bagel set. Karolina Pliskova dispatched the other French hope Carolina Garcia relatively easily and is now just one win away from being ranked #1 on the WTA tour. Sadly, it is very doubtful that Pliskova will reach #1 this week, because Halep has a 4-1 head-to-head record against Pliskova. If Halep could survive the barrage of Svitolina, she should have little difficulty outlasting Pliskova's offense to reach her second major final at Roland Garros in four years. PREDICTION: Halep.  

2017 FRENCH OPEN: Women's Quarterfinals Preview

Here are my predictions for the women's quarterfinals at the 2017 French Open. Last year I correctly predicted 3 of 4 women's quarterfinals and correctly predicted 4 of 4 men's quarterfinals. This year I have also predicted the men's quarterfinals.

Jelena Ostapenko (LAT) Samantha Stosur (AUS) [23] vs Caroline Wozniacki (DEN) [11]. Ostapenko is a hard-hitting 19-year-old who eliminated a probably injured Samantha Stosur in the 4th round to reach her first career quarterfinal. There she will face former World #1 Caroline Wozniacki who has been playing excellent tennis all year but has been unlucky in the multiple tour finals she has been in. Wozniacki delivered a rare double bagel in her 2nd round match and outlasted 2009 French Open champ Svetlana Kuznetsova in the 4th round to reach her 9th career quarterfinal. Surprisingly these two have already met 3 times in the last year, including twice on clay and the younger player has won every time. Can Woz turn things around this time? I think the person who can play the most nerve-free tennis will win, and there youth usually has an advantage. PREDICTION: Ostapenko.

Kristina Mladenovic (FRA) [13] Garbine Muguruza (ESP) [4] vs Venus Williams (USA) [9] Timea Bacsinsky (SUI) [30].  This should have been a marquee showdown between two major champions but both stumbled on their way to this quarterfinal berth. Kiki Mladenovic took out the defending champion in yet another dramatic 3-set battle, again utilizing the partisan French course to power her to her best ever showing at her home slam. For the second year in a row, Bascinszky took out Venus Williams in the 4th round of Roland Garros, although this time it was a 3-set thriller, where the Swiss player's movement and unorthodox game befuddled her more powerful opponent, leading to double-break advantages in all three sets they played. Last year, Mladenovic won the women's singles title here with fellow quarterfinalist Caroline Garcia but has recently strongly criticized her former partner for ending their partnership with a text. It would be quite a drama if one or both of them ended up in the singles final this year. PREDICTION: Mladenovic.

Elina Svitolina (UKR) [5] vs Simona Halep (ROU) [3].  This showdown is the most anticipated match of the clay court season. These are the two best players on the surface this year, and most analysts believe whoever wins this match has probably the best chance to win the 2017 Roland Garros title. The two met in the final of Rome, which Halep was on the way ti winner when she injured her ankle which made her questionable to even appear in Paris. Halep has not looked hampered by injury in her first 5 rounds, and demolished a very good clay court player in the 4th round (Carla Suarez Navarro) to get here while Svitolina had to come back from a beak down in the final set repeatedly to gut out a win 4-6 6-3 7-5 over Petra Martic. Svitolina is probably the mentally tougher player but I think Halep should have enough confidence to prevail, although if it gets deep in the third set, I would give Svitolina the edge. PREDICTION: Halep. 

Karolina Pliskova (CZE) [2] vs. Alize Cornet (FRA) Caroline Garcia (FRA). Karolina Pliskova is the highest ranked player remaining in the draw, and is two wins away from grabbing the World #1 ranking from Angelique Kerber. Despite having one of the most powerful serves on tour for year, Pliskova had never advanced past the 3rd round of any major tournament before the 2016 US Open where she reached the final by beating both Williams Sisters before losing to Kerber. Caroline Garcia is finally starting to realize her potential by reaching her first major quarterfinal. To get there, she had to dispatch a countrywoman, which she did in pretty convincing fashion by overpowering Alize Cornet. Whether Garcia can reach her first major semifinal may depend on the order of play on Wednesday, and whether she is the only French hope remaining for the title this year. Head-to-head the two are matched 2-all with Garcia winning their one clay court meeting. However, I think that if the two play their best tennis (which probably won't happen) Pliskova should prevail.  PREDICTION: Pliskova. 

2016 FRENCH OPEN: Women's Semifinals Preview

Here are my predictions for the women's semifinal matches at the 2016 French Open. Last year I correctly predicted 3 of 4 women's quarterfinals and correctly predicted 3 of 4 men's quarterfinals. This year I correctly predicted 4 of 4 men's quarterfinals and 3 of 4 women's quarterfinals. I will also do a preview of the men's semifinals.

Serena Williams [1] vs Timea Bacsinszky (SUI) [8] Kiki Bertens (NED).  Can anyone stop Kiki? The 24-year-old Dutch phenom had never made it into the second week of a slam and is now just one match away from playing for a Grand Slam title! It's shocking to think that Kiki Bertens has been more impressive en route to the semifinal then the World #1, but in some sense that is true. Bertens beat Angelique Kerber in the first round but also has taken several other prominent scalps along the way: #15 Madison Keys, #29 Daria Kasatkina and #8 Timea Bacsinszky. In comparison, Serena has only played two seeded players #26 Kiki Mladenovic and #18 Elina Svitolina. On the other hand, Serena leads their brief head-to-head 1-0, having won a surprisingly close encounter at the 2015 US Open. Presumably Serena will take this match seriously since she sees the good players that Bertens has dismissed. Even so, I will still be astonished if Serena does not reach her 4th French Open final (she is 3-1 in Roland Garros semifinals and 3-0 in Roland Garros finals). I'm sure Serena is quite happy that  she's playing Kiki Bertens instead of her sister Venus (as the draw had initially indicated). Mad Professah's Pick: S. Williams.

Samantha Stosur (AUS) [21] vs Garbine Muguruza (ESP) [4] . These two have only played once before, but it was on clay (in Madrid), and Stosur won that match 6-1 in the third. Muguruza's ascension to the #3 ranking in the World after her dreamlike run to the Wimbledon final was not unexpected, but it was surprising that it happened on grass and not a hard court. But the Venezuelan-born 22-year-old who plays for Spain and has trained on clay in her formative years was always expected to be competing for majors and the #1 ranking at some point and it looks like those days have arrived. The 32-year-old Australian has had excellent success in Paris, having reached the semifinals four times in her career (1-2 record) but there is a reason why Muguruza is seeded #4 compared to Stosur's #21 at this year's tournament. Even though Stosur is a 2-time major finalist, she is not as mentally tough as her opponent, as their different WTA tour final records (Stosur is 8W-15L while Muguruza is 2W-3L) reflect. I believe that will be the difference that leads the young Spaniard to her second major final in as many years. MadProfessah's prediction: Muguruza.

2016 FRENCH OPEN: Women's Quarterfinals Preview, Part 2

Here are my predictions for the 2016 women's quarterfinals and remaining Round of 16 matches at the French Open. Last year I correctly predicted 3 of 4 women's quarterfinals and correctly predicted 3 of 4 men's quarterfinals. This year I have correctly predicted 2 of 4 women's round of 16 matches and 2 of 2 women's quarterfinals completed so far. 

Serena Williams [1] vs Carla Suarez Navarro (ESP) [12] Yulia Putintseva (KAZ).  I expected that Serena would be facing the talented Spaniard instead of the 21-year-old fireplug from Kazakhstan. Serena is playing in her 10th quarterfinal at Roland Garros while Putintseva, 13 years her junior, is playing in her first. The two have met twice before, and although clay is the youngster's best surface she has yet to win a set against the World #1 and it is doubtful that will have changed after their match on Thursday. Mad Professah's Pick: S. Williams.

Timea Bacsinszky (SUI) [8] vs Madison Keys (USA) [15] Kiki Bertens (NED). This was another surprise match up because I expected the big hitting Keys to be able to dismiss the white-hot Bertens. Despite my affection and respect for Venus Williams I  didn't really think she  had very much of a chance of coming out as a victor against the higher ranked Bacsinszky and I was correct. Bacsinszky was able to reach the semifinal here last year, and this is a very winnable match for the Swiss player to defend those points. In fact, Bacsinszky played Serena very tough in last year's semifinal, and this year she is playing even better, and is yet to lose a set at this year's French Open. I expect she will relish the challenge to face Serena in another high stakes meeting. Mad Professah's pick: Bacsinszky.

 

2016 FRENCH OPEN: Women's Quarterfinals (and R16) Preview, Part 1

Here are my predictions for the 2016 women's quarterfinals and remaining Round of 16 matches at the French Open. Last year I correctly predicted 3 of 4 women's quarterfinals and correctly predicted 3 of 4 men's quarterfinals. I have predicted the men's quarterfinals (and remaining Round of 16 matches) in a separate post.

QUARTERFINAL MATCHES

Tsvetana Pironkova (BUL) Agnieska Radwanska (POL) [2] vs Samantha Stosur (AUS) [21] Simona Halep (ROU) [6]. This was supposed to be a blockbuster quarterfinal of two major finalists and two former World #2 players) but instead they were both upset in matches where they blew commanding leads. Halep lead the first set 5-3 but ended up losing the first set in a tiebreak while Pironkova got blown out in the first set but ended up winning the last two sets despite barely ever holding serve. Stosur is a major champion and has been to a final on clay, despite appearances, her game is actually well suited to the slow clay surface, and her athleticism should make her too much for the talented (but results-starved) Bulgarian to handle. MadProfessah's prediction: Stosur.

Garbine Muguruza (ESP) [4] vs Shelby Rogers (USA) Petra Kvitova (CZE) [10].  Muguruza has looked very strong and is in her 3rd consecutive Roland Garros quarterfinal, playing against the unheralded Shelby Rogers who is playing the tournament of her life. The American's paycheck for reaching the quarterfinal here will be a significant fraction of her entire career earnings to date. She has had to beat THREE seeded players to reach this point, 2-time major champion #10 Petra Kvitova (whom she beat by one of the most remarkable scores of the entire tournament: 6-0 6-7(3) 6-0), #17 Karolina Pliskova and #25 Irinia-Camelia Begu.  The womens tour has been going through a period of  topsy turvy upsets this year, but Shelby Rogers beating Muguruza to reach the French Open semifinals would just about cement concerns that things have gotten out of control. I don't think that's going to happen. MadProfessah's prediction: Muguruza.

ROUND OF 16 MATCHES

Serena Williams [1] vs Elina Svitolina (UKR) [18].  Due to the inclement weather, the top part of the draw, which includes the #1 seed and both Williams sisters is a round behind from where it typically is. However, I think this will only delay not derail, Serena's defense of her French Open crown. That being said, Svitolina is a good young player who has shown herself to be fearless against Serena before. But Serena should be ready for her, and once Serena gets to the business end of a tournament she is tough to beat. That being said, playing one match a day for the next four days in order to win the tournament will be an interesting test of stamina for the G.O.A.T Mad Professah's Pick: S. Williams.

Carla Suarez Navarro (ESP) [12] vs Yulia Putintseva (KAZ) Victoria Azarenka (BLR) [5]. Speaking of fearless competitors, Putintseva is another pint-sized powerhouse in the mode of Dominika Cibulkova without her movement or consistency yet. CSN has far too much game to her 3rd quarterfinal at her most successful major. Mad Professah's pick: Suarez Navarro.

Timea Bacsinszky (SUI) [8] vs Venus Williams (USA) [9]. The one person who was probably not sad about Monday's complete washout of play was 35-year-old Venus Williams. She probably needed the time to recover from having to play two doubles matches on Sunday. However, it's not clear if Venus still has enough game to defeat the wily Swiss player, who last year made the semifinals here and took a set off Serena in that match. If the Venus Williams circa 2003 shows up then it is very possible she could produce yet another all-Williams match-up at a major, (if she wins her quarterfinal match) but oftentimes one of the siblings blinks when this possibility is on the table, and Serena ain't blinking for anybody right now. There's a reason why Bacsinsky is actually higher seeded than Venus, so the American winning would actually be the upset. Mad Professah's pick: Bacsinszky.

Madison Keys (USA) [15] vs Kiki Bertens (NED) Angelique Kerber (GER) [3]. Kiki Bertens is having the tournament of her life, and by reaching the fourth round she clinched her berth on the Dutch Olympic team (she was also one half of the team that eliminated the Williams sisters in doubles). Keys has been having good results on clay, which bodes well for later in the year where the faster surfaces should make her powerful game even more effective. The fact that Bertens took out the reigning Australian Open champion who is also a classic European dirtballer should not be sneezed at, but I think Keys is ready to join the elite at the top of women's tennis, and making a deep run here, at her worst surface, would herald that. Mad Professah's pick: Keys.

TENNIS TUESDAY: Miami Loses Nadal, Federer, Murray and Serena Early

Serena Now 14-3 For 2016, Has Not Won Tournament Since August
Hmmm, just a little over a week after she lost a tight final 6-4 6-4 against Victoria Azarenka in Inidan Wells, 8-time Miami Open champion Serena Williams was ousted from one of her most successful tournaments 6-7(3) 6-1 6-2 by 2-time major champion Svetlana Kuznetsova. The loss means that Serena is yet to win a tournament in 2016 (although she has been in two finals) and because she took off the entirety of the last quarter of 2015, Serena has not won a tournament since her 2015 Cincy Open. This is the first time since 2012 that Serena has played four tournaments and not won any of them.

Nadal Retires Due To Heat, Federer Withdraws Due To Illness
The Miami Open may be an early glimpse of the new normal for tennis once the Federer-Nadal era ends for good. Nadal shocked the tennis work by withdrawing down 0-3 in the final set against Damir Dzumhur complaining of the effects of the heat! It was Nadal's first retirement in a match since the 2010 Australian Open quarterfinal when he retired against Andy Murray (443 matches ago). Roger Federer had added Miami to his schedule as his comeback tournament to the tour following knee surgery but then was forced to withdraw from the tournament due to illness.

Miami Upsets: Murray, Halep, Radwanska Go Down Early
Timea Bascinzky is on fire again! In two consecutive rounds, the Swiss player defeated current World #2 Aga Radwanska and then beat former World #2 Simona Halep in the very next round to reach the quarterfinals of Miami. And she did it the hard way, losing the first set in each round. Andy Murray lost to an in-form Grigor Dimitrov.

TENNIS TUESDAY: WTA Awards Announced, Fedberg Ends, Swiss Sweep Doubles In Rio?

WTA AWARDS ANNOUNCED AND WILLIAMS SISTERS WIN BIG
The WTA Awards were announced today and for the seventh time in her career Serena Williams was named the WTA Player of the Year. Other big awards announced were Doubles Team of the Year (Martina Hingis and Sania Mirza), Most Improved Player of the Year (Timea Bacsinszky), Newcomer of the Year (Daria Gavrilova) and Comeback Player of the Year (Venus Williams).

ROGER FEDERER ENDS COACHING RELATIONSHIP WITH STEFAN EDBERG
Roger Federer announced that Stefan Edberg will not be part of his coaching staff in 2016. Former ATP pro (and Federer friend) Ivan Ljubicic will join the team, with Severin Luthi remaining as head coach of Team Federer. Ljubicic had been coaching Milos Raonic for the last two years,

DOUBLES PAIRINGS FOR 2016 RIO OLYMPICS COMING INTO FOCUS
Federer has agreed to play Mixed Doubles at the 2016 Rio Olympics with Martina Hingis, who is part of the current Best Doubles Team of the Year. Federer famously won the Men's Doubles With Stan Wawrinka at the 2008 Beijing Olympics, so one would think that they would have a good chance in 2016 now that the team has 19 major singles titles between them. Additionally, the Women's Doubles team of Belinda Bencic (or Bacsinsky) with Hingis would be hard to beat. Could Switzerland sweep the doubles medals next year?