SATURDAY POLITICS: #AD51 California Assembly District Race Heats Up!

I am a homeowner and voter in Northeast Los Angeles and thus the last year has involved participating in numerous elections (five lat last count). Due to the 2016 election which resulted in then-Attorney General Kamala Harris going to the U.S. Senate, my congressperson Xavier Becerra was appointed to replace her and then my Assemblyperson Jimmy Gomez won a special election to replace Becerra in the 34th Congressional District. Now we are just a few weeks away from the Tuesday December 5th election to replace Gomez in the Assembly.

The two candidates for the 51st Assembly district are Luis Lopez and Wendy Carrillo. Lopez has run for this seat before (losing to Gomez in 2012) and lived in the District for decades while Carrillo moved into the district when she ran unsuccessfully in the #CA34 special election.

Interestingly, despite the carpet-bagger concerns Carrillo has been endorsed by several Democratic Party establishment figures, including now-U.S. Rep. Gomez, California Senate Majority leader Kevin De Leon (who represents the area in the California Senate) and Jose Huizar who represents sections of the assembly district in the Los Angeles City Council.

As an openly gay man running for a state legislative seat, Lopez has been endorsed by several LGBT organizations (Equality California, HONOR Pac, the Victory Fund and the California LGBT Legislative Caucus).

Lopez and Carillo have faced off in multiple debates around the district. There doesn't appear to be any public polling in the race. I have already voted for my preferred candidate by mail. The election is Tuesday December 5th.

SATURDAY POLITICS: #AD51 Runoff On 12/05/17 With Wendy Carrillo and Luis Lopez

The special election to replace now-Congressman Jimmy Gomez in the 51st Assembly District happened this Tuesday October 3 and the top 2 finishers were Wendy Carrillo (who had also run against Gomez in the special election in the 34th Congressional District) and Luis López. Carrillo received the most votes (4,771) in a crowded field of 13 candidates while López was second with 4,086 and Mike Fong was close behind with 3,515.

However, only the top 2 finishers advance to a run-off election to be held on Tuesday December 5. López has run for this seat before, way back in 2012 (against Gomez), while Carrillo is something of a perennial candidate in Northeast Los Angeles elections. López is openly gay and is a healthcare executive and was endorsed by various progressive democratic clubs (East Area Progressive Democrats and Stonewall Democrats) while Carrillo used to work for a local affiliate of Service Employees International Union, which ran an independent expenditure campaign that spent hundreds of thousands of dollars to support her.

This is my home district (and I voted) so I am following the race quite closely. It will be interesting to see who (if anyone) Gomez endorses as well as what the other candidates in the race do.

Hat/tip to Los Angeles Times.

SATURDAY POLITICS: Presidential First-Quarter Approval Rating Comparisons; #CA34 Runoff Between Gomez and Ahn; Gorsuch's 1st Killer Vote

TRUMP'S FIRST-QUARTER APPROVAL RATINGS ARE HISTORICALLY LOW COMPARED TO OTHER FIRST-TERM PRESIDENTS
The Huffington Post reports that Donald Trump is the first post-World War president to have less than majority support from the American populace after the first quarter of his first term.

President Donald Trump received substantially worse ratings for his initial months in office than any other president elected to his first term since World War II, according to Gallup.

Even those presidents who went on to be unpopular generally enjoyed high ratings during their first months in office after their electoral victory. But Trump’s average rating since Inauguration Day is just 41 percent, Gallup finds, making him the only such president in its polling history to fall short of majority approval during his first quarter.

President Bill Clinton, the next-lowest ranked, had an average approval rating of 55 percent for that time period, while Presidents Barack Obama and George W. Bush enjoyed first-quarter ratings of 63 percent and 58 percent, respectively. 

It should be noted that Trump's approval rating among Republicans (as depicted in the graphic at the top of this post) is 87%, which is well aligned with the political support other presidents have received from people in their same party.

#CA34 JUNE 6 RUN-OFF ELECTION SET BETWEEN JIMMY GOMEZ AND ROBERT LEE AHN
Previously I analyzed the race to replace Xavier Becerra as the United States representative for the 34th Congressional District of California. I also voted in the April 4 election by absentee ballot. The top two finishers were Assemblymember Jimmy Gomez and former Los Angeles City Planning Commissioner Robert Lee Ahn. One of these two will be elected as a Congressmember on June 6, 2017. Ahn, 41, raised the most money but Gomez, 42, received the most votes.

JUSTICE NEIL GORSUCH JOINED THE SUPREME COURT AND HIS FIRST VOTE ALLOWS ARKANSAS TO KILL
Neil Gorsuch is now the newest member of the United States Supreme Court. His very first vote was on Monday night, in the case of McGehee v. Hutchinson, which was in a death penalty case out of Arkansas. In a 5-4 decision, Gorsuch's was the deciding vote which led to the execution of Ledell Lee. This was the first execution in the state of Arkansas in a dozen years. The state had intended to execute 8 men in 11 days but that plan is in doubt now, but they have "successfully" killed at least one man.

SATURDAY POLITICS: Analyzing the #CA34 Special Election for Becerra's Replacement

Jimmy Gomez is my representative in the California Assembly (51st District). Xavier Becerra used to be my representative in the United States Congress (until he became Attorney General of California). I live in the 34th Congressional District of California, so now this is a rare open congressional seat.

The race to replace Becerra has become as crowded as I expected. This is what the actual ballot looks like for the April 4, 2017 special election:

The Top 2 vote getters (as long as no one gets a majority of votes) will face off June 6, 2017. The Los Angeles Times editorial board has endorsed Maria Cabildo but the dozens of mailers I have piling up around the house show that Gomez has garnered the most impressive endorsements:  the Los Angeles County Democratic Party, Xavier Becerra, U.S. Senator Kamala Harris and Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti. However, the person who has raised the most money is Robert Lee Ahn, the only Korean American in a race for a congressional seat which contains Koreatown.

I have already voted (by absentee ballot) but watch this space for the official results in just about 11 days from now!

Saturday Politics: Race For CA-34 U.S. House Seat (Not Yet) Crowded

Cue the musical chairs! Last week California Governor Jerry Brown announced his intention to appoint U.S. Representative Xavier Becerra to replace U.S. Senator-elect Kamala Harris as California Attorney General. Becerra, 58, is currently my congressman, representing California's 34th congressional district; he would become the first Latino attorney general in the history of the state (in 2016!)

Becerra had been a rumored candidate in the race to replace Barbara Boxer that Kamala Harris ultimately won over another Latino candidate, Loretta Sanchez. Within hours of the announcement that a rare safely Democratic Los Angeles-area Congressional seat was open, former Speaker of the House John Perez announced his candidacy for the race. Soon after that, my state Assemblyman, Jimmie Gomez, also announced his intention to run for the seat. Activist Wendy Carillo has also declared she is interested. Surprisingly, my City Council person Jose Huizar has so far declined to enter the race to replace Becerra, as has fellow Councilperson Gil Cedillo. For the special election, you just need to be a resident of California (and a U.S. Citizen and over age 25).

Today comes the surprising news that Perez is withdrawing from the race, citing an unnamed health condition which is serious enough that it will prevent him from running a rigorous race in the 2017 special election, according to the Los Angeles Times.

Citing a recent diagnosis of a serious health problem, former California Assembly Speaker John A. Pérez said Saturday he is dropping out of the race to replace U.S. Rep. Xavier Becerra (D-Los Angeles).
"I've got to focus on my health right now," Pérez said in an interview. "But it was a very hard decision."
The 47-year-old Democrat declined to offer specifics about his condition, citing a desire to keep it private. But he said it was serious enough that it would keep him from waging a vigorous political campaign in 2017.
"The treatment is one that doesn’t lend itself to the intensity of a campaign that the community deserves," he said.

Almost certainly there will be other prominent (and not so prominent) Los Angeles area politicos joining the race. MadProfessah will keep you posted, since it is literally happening in my back yard!

Poll: Prop 36 (Three Strikes Repeal) Has Huge Lead

One of the major reasons I did not re-register to vote in Virginia even though I have been living and working there since August 2011 and it is a swing state in the presidential election, was my desire to vote on the 11 ballot measures pending before California voters this election. (Another reason was to make sure to vote for my friend Luis Lopez to become my Assemblymember in the 51st District, but that is another matter!)

I turned in my absentee ballot last week. You can see how I voted on all 11 pending ballot propositions.

I am particularly interested in the passage of Propositions 30, 34 and 36. Propositions 30 (which would insure a new revenue of up to $6 billion per year for schools, community colleges and public universities) and Proposition 34 (which would replace the death penalty with life without parole) both seem to be in very tight races with the result in doubt. The latest Los Angeles Times poll indicates that Prop. 34 is at 42% Yes, 45% No (which reflects an increase in support) while Prop. 30 is at 46% yes, 42% No (and reflects a sharp decrease in support).

However, the one bright spot in the latest polling on the Propositions is the huge support for amending the Three Strikes law, with 63% in support and a mere 22% in opposition. This is very exciting, because it would be the first time in years that California has voted to reduce the size of the prison-industrial complex and reject "soft-on-crime" taunts. 

Saturday Politics: Lopez Does The Math In AD-51

The official results in my local Assembly District primary election from Tuesday June 4th have been released and Jimmie Gomez placed first with 9,868 votes (37.5%) and my friend (and openly gay Latino activist) Luis Lopez placed second with 6,496 votes (24.7%). Arturo Chavez was close behind with 6,081 votes (23.1%). The new Top 2 primary in California forces only the Top 2 finishers in the June primary election to appear on the November general election, regardless of party and prohibits write-ins. This was a very close, tightly fought all-Democratic primary fight.

This leads to some important mathematical calculations in the general election which are very different from the mathematical considerations which dominated the primary election. In the primary election, the clear goal was to not only maximize your own vote but also to minimize the vote of your most dangerous opponent, which could be achieved by the same activity, or by having votes that do not go to you NOT go to your opponent. In the general election, every vote not for you is a vote for your opponent, it is a zero-sum game.

In AD-51, the candidate endorsed by the "establishment" is Gomez, who received the official nod of the Los Angeles County Democratic Party. However, Lopez was born in the district and has been active in the district's politics for decades, serving on commissions and President of a Neighborhood Council that was in the district when it was the 45th Assembly District.

Clearly Hans Johnson, Lopez's campaign manager (and partner) is capable of doing the math, because he and campaign manager Miguel Cordova sees a route to victory in November by coalescing the 62.5% that did not vote for Gomez in the primary into general election support for Lopez. To that end, the recent announcement that Chavez is endorsing Lopez and strongly urging his voters to support him is key:

Our 51st District is my home. Here is where I have grown up, devoted my career in public service, and raised my family. These are very special neighborhoods, sustained by the hard work and aspirations of people who come from different backgrounds but share a love of our community.

Now, at a crucial moment in our city and our state, we need the best possible leadership in Sacramento. I am proud to endorse Luis Lopez to be our assembly member. Luis is a homegrown leader of the highest standards, a unifying and effective advocate from and for our communities, for healthcare, education, good jobs and workforce training, for parks and protection of our environment, for immigrant families and full equality under law.   

My own push for the legislature formally ends today. But the vision, vigor, and spirit of my effort carry on in the campaign of Luis Lopez. Together we stand, and together we go forward. I urge all of my supporters to devote their energy and financial support, their heart and soul and voice to his campaign. Working as one, we will ensure that Luis Lopez wins November 6th and is our next Assemblymember.

Of course, it's easier said than done to make sure that all of Chavez's support actually does turn out and vote for Lopez. Even if they did, that would only constitute 47.8% of the primary vote. So, then the question is, where are Richard Frieberg's voters going to go?

If Lopez does win in November, he could be part of the largest LGBT Legislative Caucus in history, with potentially NINE openly LGBT members of the California Assembly and Senate.

California and Maryland both currently have eight openly LGBT state legislators. While this is Christine Kehoe’s last year in the California State Senate due to term limits, the election of Susan Eggman (State Assembly, District 13) and Luis Lopez (State Assembly, District 51) in November would make California’s LGBT Caucus the largest ever. 

Also victorious in their California state legislative primaries last night were incumbents Tom Ammiano (State Assembly, District 17), Toni Atkins (State Assembly, District 78), Richard Gordon (State Assembly, District 24),Ricardo Lara (State Senate, District 33), Mark Leno (State Senate, District 11), John A. Pérez (State Assembly, District 53), and Cathleen Galgiani (pictured), who is currently in the State Assembly and running for State Senate, District 5.

One openly LGBT candidate who will not be joining the California Assembly is Torie Osborn, who placed a very close third in a hotly contested and controversial race in the 50th Assembly District which split the gay male and lesbian communities down the middle. The gay men were in general supporting straight ally  Assemblymember Betsy Butler (and Equality California  board member) while the lesbians were working for openly lesbian Osborn. The 51st assmebly district includes much of  "Boystown" (a.k.a. West Hollywood) as well as the People's Republic of Santa Monica ("Home of the Homeless!") as well as parts of Bel Air. There were four main candidates and " Let's do the results ended up with barely 1,000 votes separating the 1st finisher from the 4th finisher (Butler: 15,362; Mayor of Santa Monica Richard Bloom: 15,087; Osborn: 14,458; Republican Brady Torgan: 14,340). In fact, they are still counting the cotes, but it is unlikely that the Top 2 finishers will change. Note that the turnout in the 50th was almost twice what it was in the 51st. Openly gay Speaker of the Assembly John Perez poured money into this race to get Butler re-elected. She had decided to move into this district instead of staying in the district where her previous residence was (in the former AD-53, before redistricting) but that new district has far more Republicans than the new AD-50. Even, so, Butler may have a tough campaign ahead of her to overcome Bloom in November.

Saturday Politics: CA-44, AD-51, AD-50, AD-64, SD-33

It's been awhile since we had a Saturday Politics edition but there's been a lot of developments now that we are well into 2012 which is a year divisible by 4, otherwise known as a Presidential election year.

AD-51. In my home Assembly District my friend Luis Lopez is running for the Democratic nomination. Luis is openly gay and is well-known to LGBT activists as the co-founder of HONOR Pac and HONOR Fund, two Latino LGBT political organizations. What people may not know is that he was born in East L.A. and even though his mom died when he as 8, Luis went on to get degrees from Pomona and Harvard after attending public schools. Recently, many Los Angeles-area Democratic organizations have been having endorsement meetings for the June 2012 statewide primary election. The Northeast Los Angeles Democratic Club endorsed heterosexual Jimmie Gomez, while the Stonewall Democratic Club, the oldest LGBT Democratic club in the country (and one of the largest) endorsed Luis, as did the Foothills Democratic Club. The big fight is on to see what will happen with the Los Angeles County Democratic Club and California Democratic Party endorsements.

AD-50. The 50th Assembly District, although adjacent in numerical order, is most definitely not geographically adjacent to the 51st. Surprisingly, the two political races are somewhat similar in that they both feature a grassroots, openly gay candidate (Torie Osbone in the 50th, Luis Lopez in the 51st) facing a more establishment type figure (53rd District Assemblywoman Betsy Butler in the 50th, Jimmie Gomez in the 51st). This is only a superficial similarity because in actuality Butler is a currently elected Assemblywoman who previously defeated an openly gay candidate to win her current seat but who enjoys support from various sections of the LGBT community due to her longstanding friendship with West Hollywood City councilman John Duran and her presence on the board of directors of Equality California Institute. Osborne is a longtime lesbian and progressive activist, having served terms (somewhat controversially) as the heads of the L.A. Gay and Lesbian Center and the National Gay and Lesbian Task Force. The issue in this district is that it includes both The People's Republic of Santa Monica (Home of the Homeless) as well as West Hollywood a.k.a. "Boystown" (L.A.'s Gay Ghetto) and that due to redistricting, the heterosexual, somewhat moderate Butler decided to run for re-election in a seat most thought should (or would) be represented by an openly LGBT and/or progressive politician. Osborne recently received the endorsement of the Stonewall and Malibu Democratic Clubs. Butler has more money and the advantage of incumbency while Osborne has significant grassroots support since her former partner Sheila Kuehl had previously represented these areas for 14 years.

CA-44, AD-64. Everyone expected this to be an exciting three-way race between two incumbent Congressmembers and a rising African American political star, fighting to represent a newly drawn 44th Congressional district which was carved out to include multiple sections of Los Angeles where Black and Latino people live in large numbers (17% of the District is African-American, 68% is Latino and a mere 7% is White). It contains the cities of Carson, Compton and South Gate. The first person to announce their intention to run in that district was (the very white) Congresswoman Janice Hahn whose 36th District she had won in July 2011 was basically eliminated in redistricting but whose political base of San Pedro was included in the 44th. However, it was expected that Congresswoman Laura Richardson would also seek re-election in the new CA-44 district, since Richardson's previous 37th District covered more than 50% of the new 44th and she could be considered the incumbent. However, Assemblyman Isadore Hall shocked a lot of people when he announced he was running and demonstrated significant support by outraising both Congresswoman in the 3rd quarter financial filings. However, since I last reported on this race, Hall has decided to drop out of the Congressional race and seek re-election to the Assembly in the newly drawn AD-64 (which was very similar to the district he currently represents). Hahn then followed that up by releasing a poll showing her with a nearly 20 point advantage over the somewhat ethically challenged Richardson. This one should be interesting to watch.

SD-33. Ricardo Lara, the second openly gay person of color to be elected in California (after California Assembly Speaker John Perez) used to represent the old 50th Assembly District (not the district with that name that Lopez and Gomez are running in in which MadProfessah's California residence is located) but has decided to run for the newly drawn 33rd State Senate District in 2012, potentially becoming the first LGBT person of color to be elected to that body. Happily for Lara, he currently does not face any significant Democratic opposition and will almost certainly become a State Senator representing a District which is over 70% Latino (the second most heavily Latino district in California). Interestingly enough this Senate district is literally right next door and slightly overlaps Hall's 64th Assembly District and the Hahn/Richardson 44th Congressional District. It will be great that the State Senate could have as many as 3 openly LGBT members (out of 40) starting in January 2013.