SATURDAY POLITICS: California Voter Registration By Party, 1998-2014

California's Secretary of State released figures on voter registration as mandated by law 60 days before the June 3, 2014 primary election. The data show the dramatic increase in the number of voters who select the "No Party Preference" option as well as the dramatic collapse of the Republican brand in California. Independents went from 12.2% of registrants in 1998 to 21.1% in 2014. In that same period Republican's share went from 35.8% to 28.6%. Democrats have slowly decreased, from a high if 46.8 in 1998 to 43.5% now. Bizarrely, there are now more counties where Republicans (31) outnumber Democrats (27).

However, the top 10 counties by Democratic registration are:

1. San Francisco 56.27%
2. Alameda 56.06%
3. Santa Cruz 54.43%
4. Marin 54.38%
5. Sonoma 51.80% 
6. San Mateo 51.01% 
7. Monterey 50.96% 
8. Los Angeles 50.64%
9. Imperial 50.14%
10. Contra Costa 49.41%

Happily, this includes the largest country in the state, Los Angeles. There are now 17,660,486 registered voters, up from 16,897,383. That equates to 73.3% of eligible voters being registered.

Hat/tip to KPCC

Opponents Of CA Trans Student Bill File Suit To Get On 2014 Ballot

Hmmm, some people just don't seem to want to follow the rules. After filing fewer signatures than they had initially claimed they would have and failing to qualify their anti-LGBT ballot measure by nearly 20,000 signatures, the organization Privacy For All is now suing the Secretary of State to have their measure qualified anyway.

A group seeking to overturn California’s law allowing transgender students access to programs and facilities based on the gender they identify as, rather than the sex they were born into, is continuing the fight by serving Secretary of State Debra Bowen and other officials, the group announced Tuesday. 

“We have served the Secretary of State with another legal action asking her to qualify the referendum and we have served county officials across the state with a demand for the documents to prove the abuse of discretion in rejecting more than 131,000 signatures,” Gina Gleason, director of faith and public policy at Calvary Chapel Chino Hills, wrote in a press release issued Tuesday morning. 

Gleason is one of the proponents listed on a proposed referendum that would repeal Assembly Bill 1266, which was signed into law last September by Gov. Jerry Brown, and took effect on Jan. 1. 

Opponents say the law will allow curious teens to ogle members of the opposite sex while at their most vulnerable, and for male students to game the system by dominating female sports teams. But officials in school districts where such policies have already been in effect — including Los Angeles and San Francisco unified school districts — have said those issues haven’t emerged in practice.

I'm glad the article notes that Los Angeles and San Francisco already have the transgender-inclusive policies of AB 1266 in effect regardless of the legislation, and would continue to have them regardless of whether a ballot measure repealed AB 1266.  In addition, New York City just issued guidelines recently about how it is adopting its transgender-inclusive policies in schools.

But this is not about "privacy" and "safety" for students. This is about a group that has specific ideas about the way that all people should display and conduct their gender identity, in a way that only conforms to a heterosexist ideal. Since they know they are losing badly in the kulturkampf on marriage equality and civil rights based on sexual orientation they are trying to make progress on an issue which has less salience with the public: transgender issues.

Hopefully Attorney General Kamala Harris will defend the state of California and point out that 504, 760 valid signatures means 504, 760 valid signatures, not 484,484!

SATURDAY POLITICS: CA Republicans Nearly Extinct

Party	Feb 1999	January 2008	January 2012
Democratic	46.72%	42.71%	43.63%
Republican	35.27%	33.45%	30.36%
NPP	12.89%	19.38%	21.24%

 
Check out these new statsistsics about party registration in California just released by Secretary of State Debra Bowen. Democrats now have a 13 percentage-point advantage in party registration (43% to 30%) over Republicans with No Particular Party (i.e. "Independents") at "21%. This is an increase of the already-overwhelming advantage Democrats enjoyed four years ago in January 2008 when the advantage was a mere 9 percentage points (42% to 33%).

You may recall that Democrats went on to win every single statewide race in November 2010. The current results bode well for these officials re-election chances in November 2014, as well as Barack Obama's likelihood of winning the state's 55 electoral votes for president this November, and probably U.S. Dianne Feinstein's re-election as well (although I will not be voting for her).

Hat/tip to Calitics.

CA-36: No Contest! Hahn v Bowen Huey

Janice Hahn will be the next U.S. Representative
for the 36th District of California

Apparently the latest results show that Secretary of State Debra Bowen is falling further behind Tea Party Republican Craig Huey, so frontrunner Janice Hahn will more than likely be the only Democrat in the Top 2 run-off for the 36th Congressional District seat on Tuesday July 12th.

Bowen is now an almost insurmountable 750 votes behind the 2nd place finisher, instead of the mere 206 votes she was behind after Tuesday's votes were counted.

As of Date: 05/19/2011 Time: 13:31 Votes  Percent 
                                                                             
US REPRESENTATIVE 36 DIST    TERM ENDS 01/03/13                              
                                                                             
   JANICE HAHN         DEM        15,607    24.62 
   CRAIG HUEY          REP        14,096    22.24 
   DEBRA BOWEN         DEM        13,346    21.05

The 36th Congressional District of California is a district Obama won 64-35 and Brown carried 56-40. It will almost certainly elect a Democrat. Congratulations to Janice Hahn!

CA-36: Hahn Leads Primary, Bowen Currently 3rd

The preliminary results from yesterday's election in Los Angeles County are in and there are some surprises in the race to replace Jane Harman in the 36th Congressional District of California, CA-36.

Here are the numbers right now (as of 05/17/2011 23:27):

JANICE HAHN        DEM            13,137    24.66 
CRAIG HUEY         REP            11,648    21.87 
DEBRA BOWEN        DEM            11,442    21.48

Only the top two vote getters regardless of party advance to the July 12th run-off election, thanks to the nonsensical Proposition 14 which was passed by voters in June 2010 and is now in effect.

MadProfessah had endorsed California Secretary of State Debra Bowen as the true progressive in the race (U.S. Senator Dianne Feinstein endorsed Hahn, blech!) so I was distressed to see her in 3rd position behind a self-financed Tea Party Republican candidate. However, there does seem to be some kind of indications that she may be able to pick up the 207 votes she needs to reach the #2 position. If that doesn't happen, then presumably Hahn would be the next Congressmember from the 36th District, and would set up another special election to fill her then-vacated Los Angeles City Council seat.

In better news, Scott Svonkin has almost certainly won his run-off against another tea Party Republican (named Lydia Gutierrez) for a seat on the Los Angeles Community College District Board. That race was the only contest on the ballot when I voted yesterday.

Saturday Politics: Hahn and Bowen Battle Over CA-36

LA. City Councilperson Janice Hahn ((left) and CA Secretary of State Debra Bowen
are competing for a rare open Congressional seat

Open congressional seats  in California are like "blue moons": they don't come around that often. The last open seat was CA-33 when Diane Watson retired and was replaced by former Assembly Speaker Karen Bass. With the retirement of U.S. Representative Jane Harman, who was a hawk and a Blue Dog, progressives are salivating over the prospect of getting a true liberal to replace her in the 36th Congressional District which Barack Obama carried by over 30 points.

The Washington Post's Rachel Weiner notes:

The likely result of the May 17 primary fight, which features 11 total candidates including 2010 primary loser Marcy Winograd, is a July 12 runoff. Under California’s new primary system, if no candidate gets 50 percent in the primary, the two top vote-getters, regardless of party, advance to a runoff.

“I think its clear there’ll be a runoff,” said Joe Trippi, a longtime Democratic consultant who is advising Hahn’s campaign.

Bowen holds statewide office and represented most of this district in the 1990s as a state legislator. Yet to hear her campaign tell it, she’s the outsider against Hahn.

The argument: Hahn has more endorsements and more money while Bowen has more grassroots support. A majority of her donors gave $200 or less. Democracy for America, a leading liberal organization, endorsed her after polling their members in the district. Her campaign is also quick to point out that Hahn has taken contributions from lobbyists.

As secretary of state, Bowen has been behind a number of initiatives that appeal to liberals, including work on ballot security. She has a long history of advocacy on environmental issues. She’s positioned herself as the anti-war candidate, trying to take some of the space occupied by Winograd, who ran against Harman in 2010 and took 41 percent.

The only poll of the race I have seen is an internal poll released by the Bowen campaign indicating a tie between Hahn and Bowen with 20 percent of the vote each, and Winograd back at 6 percent and openly gay Republican Mike Gin at 8 percent.

MadProfessah doesn't really know either of these candidates well, but I have been unimpressed with Hahn in the past when she ran (and lost) against Gavin Newsom for  Lieutenant Governor last year while Bowen has been endorsed by LGBT super-ally U.S. Representative Judy Chu (CA-32). Hahn has been endorsed by Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and enemy-of-true-progressives everywhere U.S. Senator Dianne Feinstein.

CA Sup Ct Denies Motion To Knock Prop 8 Of November Ballot

Chicago lawyer W.B. Kelley has just informed me that the California Supreme Court has issued a response to the motion requesting a stay in preventing Proposition 8 from appearing on the November 4, 2008 statewide ballot.

Here's the official order:

BENNETT v. BOWEN (HOLLINGSWORTH)
Case: S164520, Supreme Court of California

Date (YYYY-MM-DD): 2008-07-16
Event Description: Petition for writ of mandate/prohibition & stay denied
Notes:
The Request For Judicial Notice In Support Of Petition For Extraordinary Relief, Including Writ Of Mandate And Request For Stay, received June 20, 2008, is
granted. Secretary of State Bowen's request that we judicially notice the excerpts from the Summary of General Election Calendar contained in her preliminary
response to the Petition For Extraordinary Relief, Including Writ of Mandate And Request For Stay, filed June 30, 2008, is granted. The Request For Judicial Notice
In Support of letter brief of Amici Curiae, received July 11, 2008, is granted. The Application for Stay and Petition For Extraordinary Relief, Including Writ of Mandate, filed June 20, 2008, is DENIED. [emphasis added]The Motion By Campaign For California Families, Randy Thomasson, And Larry Bowler To Intervene As Real
Parties In Interest, filed June 30, 2008, is denied as moot.

What it means:

The good guys (with lead plaintiff Brian Bennett, an Equality california board member) had petitioned the court to hear their arguments that the evil Proposition 8 should be stricken from the statewide ballot because signatures had been gathered with the notion that there would be no financial impact on California since the proposed constitutional amendment would only ban same-sex marriages which had already been banned by statute. However, on May 15th the California Supreme Court ruled that same-sex marriage was legal and EQCA's argument was that Proposition 8 is now about banning future marriages and invalidating current legal marriages so it had been put on the ballot under false pretences.

Both Secretary of State Debra Bowen and Attorney General Jerry Brown opposed the good guys' motion (although they both support marriage equality). The court approved their motion and denied Equality California's. It also said that the attempt by wacko heterosexual supremacists Randy Thomasson and Larry Bowler to intervene in the case was now moot.

To support the fight against Proposition 8, go to Equality For All.