Monday, November 05, 2012

Final Poll On MN Prop 8 Copycat Shows Defeat Likely

The final poll on the ballot measure which would amend the state constitution of Minnesota to insert a discriminatory clause declaring that "only a union of one man and woman shall be valid o recognized as a marriage" shows that the Proposition 8 copycat measure likely to be defeated, 52% No, 45% Yes, 3% Not Sure. These results are from PPP, a Democratic-leaning polling firm, which reports:

The more interesting findings on our final Minnesota poll deal with the state's high 
profile amendments to ban gay marriage and require voter identification. We find both 
narrowly trailing. 45% of voters say they'll vote for the gay marriage ban, compared to 
52% who are opposed to it. And 46% say they'll support the voter ID amendment to 51% 
who are opposed.  

The marriage amendment is trailing because of a massive generational divide. Seniors 
support it by a 57/40 margin but every other age group opposes it, including a 36/62 
margin against it among voters under 30. Republicans support it (79%) and Democrats 
oppose it (76%) in almost equal numbers, but independents tip the balance by opposing it 

An interesting aspect of this latest poll is that the voter-id measure had long been though to pass but is now solidly behind. Perhaps some of this is the electorate turning against both high-profile ballot measures, which were put there by extremely conservative forces in the state.

This is good news to be sure, but it is astonishing that nearly $16 million dollars have been spent on a measure which if defeated would not change the fact that same-sex couples will still not be able to get married in Minnesota. (Enacting the measure would prevent courts from enacting same-sex marriage and would insure that in order for marriage equality to occur it would have to happen through federal courts or a future repeal of the state constitutional amendment if it were to pass.) The pro-equality side has raised $11 million dollars, with the anti-equality side reporting $5.1 million, a nearly 2-to-1 ratio for the "good guys" but still the measure is very very close. If Minnesota were to defeat the anti-gay constitutional amendment it would be historic, since 32 states have previously enacted anti-gay ballot measures since 1998.

Hat/tip to Joe.My.God

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