Monday, January 22, 2018

2018 AUS OPEN: Women's Quarterfinals Preview and Predictions


Here are my predictions for 
the women's quarterfinals at the 2018 Australian Open. Last year I did not predict the quarterfinalsThis year I have also predicted the men's quarterfinals.

Simona Halep (ROU) [1] vs. Karolina Pliskova (CZE) [6]. The current World #1 appears to have recovered from her epic (15-13 in the 3rd!) win over American Lauren Davis from the 3rd round when she dispatched hard-hitting Naomi Osaka with dispatch in the 4th round.  Pliskova is a former #1 and has reached a hard court final in New York  in 2016. However she has never advanced past the quarterfinal in Melbourne, and she lost in this round against Mirjana Lucic-Baroni at this stage last year. Although Pliskova can pummel the ball, she is very limited in her movement, which is Halep's great strength. This has been the case in their first 6 matches, 5 of which have been handily won by Halep. I don't think this match will deviate very much from this trend. PREDICTION: Halep.

Angelique Kerber [21] (GER) Garbine Muguruza (ESP) [3] vs. Madison Keys (USA) [17] Caroline Garcia (FRA) [8]. Although technically the expected match-up in this quarter was a showdown between the #3 and #8 seeds, no one is that surprised to see the 2016 Australian Open champion and the 2017 US Open finalist fighting each other for this semifinal slot. Muguruza was dispatched by the amazing Su-Wei Hsieh who also eliminated Aggie Radwanska and came within a handful of points at eliminating Kerber in the last round. Keys has been bludgeoning her way through the draw, and has not even come very close to losing a set (after being down 3-5 in her first round match Keys closed out that match by winning the final 4 games). The head-to-head between Keys and Kerber is not good for the young American, with the German former World #1 leading 6-1. Kerber is an expert at blunting power and Keys has repeatedly demonstrated an ability to switch to another game plan when her power hitting game fails to blast through her opponent. Will 2018 be the year Keys figures out how to win matches against the world's best counterpunchers? I don't think she's there yet.  PREDICTION: Kerber.

Elin Mertens (BEL) [16] Venus Williams (USA) [5] vs. Elina Svitolina (UKR) [4].  Svitolina is one of the most winningest players on the women's tour but she is yet to match her ranking at a major. (You could call her the Sascha Zverev of the women's tour!) Despite being World #4, Svitolina has only reached the quarterfinals twice in her career, both times at Roland Garros on clay. This is very strange, because she is a hard-hitting player who moves well and is very consistent. That being said, I believe she will finally reach her first major semifinal by winning this match against her talented (but overmatched) opponentPREDICTIONSvitolina

Caroline Wozniacki (DEN) [2] vs. Carla Suárez Navarro (ESP) Jelena Ostapenko (LAT) [7]. Wozniacki is living on borrowed time after she came back from an astonishing 1-5 down in the 2nd round, saving multiple match points along the way. Since that freeing escape Caroline has not even come close to losing a set in the tournament and after winning her biggest title of her career by beating Venus in the WTA Year-End Championship in Singapore I believe she has the confidence to go all the way and finally end her reputation as "the best player to be ranked #1 and never win a slam." Suarez Navarro is a tricky player, but she is exactly the kind of player that Wozniacki has to be able to get past in order to reach her goal of becoming a major champion.  PREDICTION: Wozniacki. 

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