MadProfessah is quoted at the end, explaining the main reason why several people of color LGBT groups do not feel we will be ready in 2010 to repeal Proposition 8. "Do the math!"
In the days after Proposition 8 banned same-sex marriage in California last fall, many grass-roots activists almost immediately began planning to get the question back on the ballot. In the spring, as states such as Iowa and Vermont legalized gay marriage, gay and lesbian activists said momentum was on their side.Let me be more specific. If it takes JRC working in coalition with Equality California and Vote for Equality 350 volunteer-hours (not including staff time, or travel time for the volunteers) to change 50 votes (from against marriage equality to undecided, or from undecided to in favor of marriage equality) and we have 6,000 times that many votes to move in 2010, then we will need 2.1 million volunteer-hours of effort to achieve that.
But now many activists say they are trying to make the political calculations necessary to ensure victory -- which means enough money to wage a campaign and enough voter outreach to persuade some who voted against gay and lesbian unions to change their minds.
"We initially said we believe 2010 was the right time to go back to the ballot," said Marc Solomon, marriage director for Equality California, one of the state's biggest gay rights groups. But he added: "We've also made it very clear we will only move forward if we have a clear road map to victory. . . . The last thing we want to do is go back to the ballot and lose."
He said his group has sought advice from political consultants and polling experts and would present it publicly later this month.
Ron Buckmire, president of the Barbara Jordan/Bayard Rustin Coalition, one of the groups that signed the statement issued Monday, said the need for more time was made clear to him this weekend when his group went door to door to talk to voters about same-sex marriage in South Los Angeles.
"It was a huge success. We had 70 volunteers, working for five hours, knocked on 1,200 doors," he said. But after all that, they identified only 50 voters who moved in their direction.
"We have to move 300,000 voters," he said. "Do the math."
People who say that we can do that by November 2, 2010 (which is exactly 477 days away from today) need to demonstrate a plan for how they intend to pay for, lead and plan this work in that time frame, in the worst economy California and the United States have seen since the Great Depression.
Do the Math.