Tuesday, January 24, 2012

2012 OSCARS: Actual vs. Predicted Nominations

Harry PotterMidnight in ParisWar Horse
MoneyballHugoTree of Life
The ArtistThe HelpThe Descendants
Best Picture 
The Descendants
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
The Help
Tree of Life
War Horse

MadProfessah's Predictions: 7 out of 9.

Best Director
MadProfessah's Predictions: 4 out of 5.

Best Actress
  • Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
  • Viola Davis, The Help
  • Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
  • Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
  • Tilda Swinton, We Need To Talk About Kevin
  • Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn
MadProfessah's Predictions: 4 out of 5.

Best Actor
MadProfessah's Predictions: 4 out of 5.

Best Supporting Actress
  • Berenice BejoThe Artist
  • Jessica Chastain, The Help
  • Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
  • Vanessa Redgrave, Coriolanus
  • Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
  • Olivia Spencer, The Help
MadProfessah's Predictions: 4 out of 5.

Best Supporting Actor
  • Albert Brooks, Drive
  • Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn
  • Armie Hammer, J. Edgar
  • Jonah Hill,  Moneyball
  • Christopher Plummer,  Beginners
  • Andy Serkis, Rise of the Planet of the Apes
  • Max Von Sydow, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
MadProfessah's Predictions: 3 out of 5.

Best Original Screenplay
  • Michael Hazanavicius, The Artist
  • Mike Mills, Beginners
  • Kristen Wiig and Annie Mumolo, Bridesmaids
  • J.C. Chandor, Margin Call
  • Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
  • Diablo Cody, Young Adult
  • Asghar Farhadi, A Separation
MadProfessah's Predictions: 3 out of 5.

Best Adapted Screenplay
  • Alexander Payne, Nat Faxton and Jim Rash, The Descendants
  • Tate Taylor, The Help
  • John Logan, Hugo
  • Aaron Sorkin, Steve Zaillian, and Stan Chervin, Moneyball
  • George Clooney, Grant Heslov and Beau Willimon, The Ides of March
  • Bridget O’Connor and Peter Straughan,  Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
MadProfessah's Predictions: 4 out of 5.

My overall total accuracy rate from the Top 8 categories is 75.0% (33 correct out of 44). This is a decrease from last year's astonishing 91% accuracy rate (41 out of 45) and lower than 2010's 82% accuracy (37 of 45). Interestingly, another thing I predicted correctly was that there would be 9 Best Picture nominations, not 10 for the first time in history (the new rule is that any film with first-place votes which is at least 5% of the total number of Oscar ballots gets a Best Picture nomination).

I underestimated the total for Hugo, which leads with 11 nominations, followed closely by The Artist at 10 nominations with War Horse tied Moneyball back at 6. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (which was robbed of a Best Picture and Best Director nomination--Memo to David Fincher: "they really, really don't like you!") ended up with 5, along with putative front-runner The Descendants.

The Oscars will be handed out on Sunday February 26th at 7pm EST.

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