Prop 8 Field Poll: 51% No, 42% Yes

More good news for people who believe in fairness and equality for all: Proposition 8 is opposed by a majority of California likely voters. Calitics has links to more details but there is also encouraging words from Mark DiCamillo: “Starting out behind is usually an ominous sign for a proposition. Over 90 percent of propositions that start out behind get taken down."

The new poll found a predictable partisan division: Republicans support the constitutional ban 68 percent to 27 percent while Democrats oppose it 63 percent to 30 percent. Nonpartisan and minor-party members are even more strongly against it, 66 percent to 27 percent.

DiCamillo said he was not surprised that unaffiliated voters opposed Proposition 8 more than Democrats because those voters tend to be younger than Democrats or Republicans.

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However, the recent poll found the opposition to the ban strongest among voters between 50 and 64 years old, with 57 percent opposed and 38 percent in support.

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Regionally, the poll showed the strongest opposition to Proposition 8 came from voters in the San Francisco Bay Area, who were opposed 67 percent to 26 percent. The strongest support came from the Central Valley, where the amendment was backed 54 percent to 39 percent.

In Los Angeles County, the poll showed that likely voters oppose the measure, 51 percent to 41 percent, while Southern California counties outside Los Angeles – including San Diego – are more evenly split, with 50 percent against and 45 percent in favor.

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The Field Poll, conducted July 8 through Monday, is based on surveys with 672 likely voters and has a margin of error of 3.9 percentage points.

I really don't believe the number that the strongest opposition comes from the age group 50-64, that just seems wrong. Brian Leubitz of Calitics looks at the cross-tabs and says that the Field Poll includes 190 people in this category. Also, the 55 No--41 Yes in the 18-30 category is pretty troubling to me.

However, I believe in the Field Poll's accuracy and hope that the last poll before November 4th also shows that Proposition 8 is still losing.