Tuesday, October 04, 2016

5 Weeks Until #ElectionDay: Clinton 0.718, Trump 0.282

There are now 5 weeks (35 days) until November 8, 2016, election day. The FiveThirtyEight election forecast  now says the probability that Hillary Clinton will be elected president is now 0.718 (Donald Trump's chance of winning is now 0.282). This is a dramatic jump from last week, where the probability was 0.546 Clinton, 0.454 Trump. That shows the volatility in the prediction, although it must of course be noted that in between now and then, the most watched presidential debate in historym occurred, with more than 84 million people viewing the debate on Monday September 26.

The Vice-Presidential debate is tomorrow night. Can it possibly have as large an effect on the probabilities? The second Presidential debate is next Sunday, October 9th.

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