2012 Wimbledon: Women's Final Preview

Serena Williams USA (6) v.  Agnieszka Radwanska POL (3) 

Here are my predictions for the women's final at the Wimbledon Championships for 2012. Last year I correctly predicted Petra Kvitova's win over Maria Sharapova in the women's final and Novak Djokovic's win over Rafael Nadal in the men's final. This year I have correctly predicted 2 of 2 men's semifinals, 2 of 2 women's semifinals, 4 of 4 women's quarterfinals and 4 of 4 men's quarterfinals.


How They Got Here: Women's Semifinals Review
Serena Williams USA (6) d. Victoria Azarenka BLR (2) 6-3 7-6(6).
Serena put on a serving display that has never been before on Centre Court, or frankly any court, to win her semifinal. In 11 service games and a 14 point tiebreaker Serena  blasted 24 aces, 1 more than the record she had set earlier in the tournament. Serena's set total is extraordinary; in the tournament through 6 rounds of play she had more aces than either Roger Federer or Novak Djokovic, despite (obviously) playing far less sets. Azarenka played an excellent match--she cut down on her unforced errors and was doing well to not only hang with Serena in the groundstroke rallies but Vika was actually able to win a lot of the important points from the back of the court. But whenever Serena got into any kind of trouble, her serve was able to bail her out. She only faced 2 breakpoints and was broken once, after she was already leading 6-3, 3-1. Azarenka was able to save a couple of breakpoints and then slightly faltered in the inevitable tiebreak when the score was even by hitting some unforced errors. Vika was able to save one match point on her serve, but the second was on Serena's and one knew that she would be able to end the match with one swing of the racket, which she did with her 24th ace.

Agnieszka Radwanska POL (3) d. Angelique Kerber GER (8) 6-3 6-4.
This match was actually much tighter than the score would indicate. Kerber is the more powerful player and grass always rewards players with lefty spin. She broke first and led 3-1, but even though she was playing in her first major semifinal, Radwanska did not panic and calmly held her service games and was able to break back twice to win 5 games in a row and steal the first set. Radwanska repeatedly frustrated Kerber with her tenacious defense and her opportunism, i.e. ability to instantly convert defense into offense and move forward to the net to win a point if she could see her opponent was even slightly out of position. The two had many long rallies which would finally end when Kerber would go for broke, more often than not hitting an error instead of a winner. That's how Radwanska wins, she hits a remarkably low number of unforced errors herself and incites her opponent to go for too much. The problem is that sometimes she meets someone who can combine power and accuracy and the strategy fails. Kerber was unable to rise to the occasion. The second set was also very close with just one break in the 5th game which the new World #2 nursed to reach her first ever major final. If she wins one more match she will not only become the new World #1, but she will lead the tour for the most matches won on tour in 2012 with 45. This almost certainly will not happen.


The Women's Final: Prediction

Agnieszka Radwanska POL (3) vs. Serena Williams USA (6). These two have met only twice in their career, both times in 2008 when Radwanska was a teenager, including here in a Wimbledon quarterfinal, with Serena winning both matches easily. In the last few years although there have been multiple players winning in their first appearance in a major: Francesca Schiavone (2010 French Open), Petra Kvitova (2011 Wimbledon) and Victoria Azarenka (2012 Australian Open), most Grand Slam winners have either won major titles before or are appearing in their second major final: Samantha Stosur (2011 US Open), Maria Sharapova (2012 French Open), Li Na (2011 French Open) and Kim Clijsters (2011 Australian Open, 2010 US Open). If Radwanska was playing a different opponent I do believe she has the mental fortitude to add her name to the first list, and I also think she has the potential to add her name to the second list as well.


Unfortunately for her, Aggie is playing the one active player who is appearing in her seventh final here at Wimbledon and her 18th major final overall. In fact, the only year in the last decade that Serena has not appeared in a major final was in 2006. There's almost nothing that Serena has to fear from Radwanska, even if she does get nervous as the significance of winning her 14th major at age 30 becomes closer to a reality. Serena is well aware that she nearly died last year from a blood clot and did not play a single professional match for a year during a convalescence which ended just over a year ago. I'm pretty sure that Serena's serve will continue to bail her out at important moments, and even if she gets frustrated by Radwanska's dogged defense, she knows that she will have her opportunities to win points in both her own service games,and her opponentt's. Prediction: Serena.

Celebrity Friday: Anderson Cooper Comes Out

Anderson Cooper, the CNN reporter/news anchor and daytime television talk-show host, has officially acknowledged his homosexuality in an email to well-known openly gay blogger Andrew Sullivan that was published on Monday July 2.

I’ve also been reminded recently that while as a society we are moving toward greater inclusion and equality for all people, the tide of history only advances when people make themselves fully visible. There continue to be far too many incidences of bullying of young people, as well as discrimination and violence against people of all ages, based on their sexual orientation, and I believe there is value in making clear where I stand. 

The fact is, I'm gay, always have been, always will be, and I couldn’t be any more happy, comfortable with myself, and proud. 

I have always been very open and honest about this part of my life with my friends, my family, and my colleagues. In a perfect world, I don't think it's anyone else's business, but I do think there is value in standing up and being counted. I’m not an activist, but I am a human being and I don't give that up by being a journalist.

Of course it had long been known in most gay and media circles that the 45-year-old, blue-eyed hunk was gay, and he had often been photographed with his boyfriend Benjamin Maisani around New York City where they both live.

Congratulations, Anderson!

2012 Wimbledon: Men's Semifinals Preview

Reuters

Here are my predictions for the men's semifinals at the Wimbledon Championships for 2012. Last year I correctly predicted 2 of 2 men's semifinals and correctly predicted 2 of 2 women's semifinals. This year I have correctly predicted 2 of 2 women's semifinals, 4 of 4 women's quarterfinals and 4 of 4 men's quarterfinals.

Novak Djokovic SRB (1) vs. Roger Federer SUI (3). There are three major rivalries in men's tennis right now: Roger Federer versus Rafael Nadal (10-18), Roger Federer versus Novak Djokovic (14-12) and Novak Djokovic versus Rafael Nadal (14-19). Each of these match-ups brings excitement and intrigue to the men's game. Although the Djokovic-Federer rivalry is the 3rd most significant in terms of total matches contested is it is still quite significant, especially in terms of Grand Slam tennis. Although they have only met in one major final (unlike the 8 Nadal and Federer have contested or the 4 in a row Djokovic and Nadal have played over the last year), the two have met an astounding eight times in major semifinals (Djokovic leads 5-3). This number of semifinal clashes is quite surprising because Djokovic has only been in 15 major semifinals in his career (8 wins 7 losses) compared to 33 major semifinals for Federer, an all-time record. Their current head-to-head in grand slam matches is even at 5-all with Djokovic having won 4 of the last 5 meetings, including last month at the 2012 French Open semifinals. Their matches are becoming less competitive, not more, as both players age. However, bewilderingly, the two have never met at Wimbledon. Djokovic is the defending champion here but Federer won 5 titles in a row between 2003 and 2007 and considers Centre Court "his house." But Federer had also won 5 consecutive titles in New York between 2004 and 2008 when his reign was ended by Juan Martin del Potro in the 2009 US Open final. In 2008, Nadal (the member of the triumvirate at the top of men's tennis who is missing from the final weekend due to a Czech fluke named Lukas Rosol) had to win what many consider the best match of all time to stop Federer from winning his 6th consecutive title here. Djokovic has demonstrated that he will do whatever it takes to win during the slugfest with Nadal that lasted nearly 6 hours to defend his Australian Open title. However, I don't believe that the match will be a slugfest. I think that Federer will do (and some would argue, he must) what it takes to change his game and mindset to beat Djokovic on grass: be aggressive, serve outstandingly and use the crowd. I believe that if Federer plays his best tennis and Djokovic plays his best tennis, that Federer can win. It doesn't mean that Federer will definitely win, but I believe it is more likely than not. Regardless, whomever wins this semifinal will almost certainly win the title. PREDICTION: Federer.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga FRA (5) vs. Andy Murray GBR (4). Murray has faced more pressure to do well (i.e. reach the final and win it) at his country's major tournament, which just happens to be the oldest and most prestigious tournament in the world, than perhaps any well-know sports figure in the world. The fact that he has not cracked mentally under the pressure is a pretty good result. No male British player has reached the final of Wimbledon since 1938 and no one has won it since Fred Perry did it in 1936. Previously, Tim Henman carried the hopes of his nation circa 1998-2202 but Murray has already surpassed many of Henman's career achievements, reaching 10 major semifinals (and 3 major finals) to Henman's 6 major semifinals and no major finals. After having lost to Nadal in the previous two years he must be very happy that instead he will be facing someone else, the talented Frenchman Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Murray did well to get past a surprisingly tenacious David Ferrer in tough 4-sets 6-7(5) 7-6(6) 6-4 7-6(4). Murray has a surprisingly large 5-1 career head-to-head edge against Tsonga, only losing to the Frenchman in the 1st round of the 2008 Australian Open, which is the tournament that Tsonga demolished Nadal in the semifinals and lost a tight 4-set final to Djkokovic. The two have played twice on grass, both won by Murray: an entertaining final of Queen Club last year and a 4-set Wimbledon quarterfinal encounter the year before where Tsonga won a bagel set but lost the match. Both players have improved since then, especially Tsonga, who has accomplished two noteworthy feats in the last year: having 3 match points against Djokovic in a major semifinal match (French Open 2012) and dropping two sets but winning the next three against Federer in last year's Wimbledon quarterfinal. Murray has not been able to accomplish either of these, but he has been consistently higher ranked than Tsonga for several years. It is very possible that Tsonga could have one of these superb performances which allows him to defeat Murray, but I suspect that the Briton will use his hometown advantage to counteract any notions of a Gallic upset. PREDICTION: Murray.

BOOK REVIEW: The Sarantine Mosaic by Guy Gavriel Kay

Guy Gavriel Kay is a Canadian fantasy author who is probably best known for his Fionavr Tapestry trilogy, which I read a few years ago. That series is a relatively conventional entry in the genre which follows a group of five friends who move back and forth between our Earth and a parallel world where magic and other common fantasy tropes exist. However, most of his work is in a particular sub-genre which can best be described as "historical fantasy"; he sets his novels in fictionalized versions of actual historical periods populated by characters who are adopted from world-famous people of extreme significance such as the 8th Century Tang Dynasty in China, medieval Italy and medieval Spain.

The Sarantine Mosaic is the name given to his diptych of novels Sailing to Sarantium and  Lord of Emperors. They are based in a world where the "Lord of Emperors" Valerius II and his beautiful empress Alixana rule in a fabled city called Sarantium where the populace is completely obsessed with chariot races and there are multiple competing religious beliefs, with worship of the Sun God Jad being the most prominent. This is a thinly veiled fictionalization of  the 6th century Byzantine period in which Justinian II ruled with his queen Theodora in Constantinople as part of the Eastern edge of the Roman empire.

The main character we follow is Caius Crispus (who is better known as Crispin), a mosaicist who has recently lost his wife and child to the plague. His aging mentor is summoned to the capital of Trakesia (Sarantium) to create a mosaic for the Emperor but they agree to have Crispin go in his place, since he has nothing really tying him to his hometown of Varena, in the land of Batiara. The first book, Sailing to Sarantium, is primarily about his eventful journey from Batiara to Trakesia, but then it gets even more interesting when Crispin arrives in Sarantium and is immersed into the complex politics of the palace and the capital city. Another key aspect of the books is Kay's portrayal of the chariot races in the Hippodrome as well as the obsessive enthusiasm the city has for the two rival factions: the Blues and the Greens.

One of the strongest features of Kay's writing is his ability to incorporate many details and intricate backstory to construct and communicate a very clear picture of the culture of the fascinating time and place he sets his books. In fact, some would argue that he devotes so much of his text towards the atmospherics in The Sarantine Mosaic that the plot and story development suffers. There's no question that events sloooowly unfold, but the atmosphere generally hooks you so completely that even though I kept on putting the books down to read other more rapidly plotted books (such as Jack McDevitt's Alex Benedict novels), I repeatedly returned to Kay's work because I cared about Crispin and I wanted to return to Sarantium to find out what happened to him. It literally took me around 6 months to finish both books but I am glad that I did. I very rarely read more than one book at a time, but somehow I was able to do this with the The Sarantine Mosaic, which is a testament to Kay's clarity of exposition that even after returning to the books after a long break one can immediately be re-engrossed.

In the second book Lord of Emperors (which resumes right where the first book ends) story takes a central role as Kay starts deploying all the characters he has introduced to produce a gripping series of events which surprises and emotionally impacts the reader. Crispis is the main character, but there are at least four women in his orbit who are all extremely important in Sarantium: Alixana, the Empress of Sarantium; Gisele, the exiled Queen who escaped an assassination attempt back in their common hometown of Batiara and is now relatively powerless in her country's longtime enemy's capital city; Shirin, the daughter of Crispin's mentor who has become the most desired woman in Sarantium as the primary dancer aligned with the Greens (one of the city's two rival chariot racing cohorts); and Styliane, the blonde, beautiful wife of the commander of the  Sarantine Army who is also daughter of the previous Emperor and is widely considered the second most important woman in the capital city, a sort of Empress-in-waiting. The ways in which the lives and stories of these women (and the men who love them) intersect and develop is quite affecting.

In fact, after I finished the books I really think that The Sarantine Mosaic is ripe for a filmic adaptation. I'm not sure it would work well as a television series (there's not enough plot for that) but as either a major motion picture or a "short" miniseries of 6-8 hours I think it would work very well; there's a lot of sex, politics, romance, betrayal and beauty which would be compelling to most viewers.

Title: Sailing to Sarantium.
Author: Guy Gavriel Kay.
Paperback: 560 pages.
Publisher: Harper Voyager.
Date: January 5, 2000.

OVERALL GRADE: A- (3.67/4.0).


PLOT: A-.
IMAGERY: A-.
IMPACT: A-.
WRITING: A-.


Title: Lord of Emperors.
Author: Guy Gavriel Kay.
Paperback: 576 pages.
Publisher:  Harper Voyager.
Date: February 6, 2001.

OVERALL GRADE: A/A- (3.83/4.0).


PLOT: A.
IMAGERY: A-.
IMPACT: A.
WRITING: A-.

2012 Wimbledon: Women's Semifinals Preview

AP

Here are my predictions for the women's semifinals at the Wimbledon Championships for 2012. Last year I correctly predicted 2 of 2 men's semifinals and correctly predicted 2 of 2 women's semifinals. This year I correctly predicted 4 of 4 women's quarterfinals and 4 of 4 men's quarterfinals.

Agnieszka Radwanska POL (3) vs. Angelique Kerber GER (8). These two players are the most consistent winners on the WTA this year, with 45 wins for the German and 43 for the Pole but none of these matches in 2012 have been against each other. Kerber faced her countrywoman Sabine Lisicki in her quarterfinal and despite blowing multiple match points and a 3-0 lead in the second set, the mature lefty was able to come back from 3-5 down in the third set and win the match after Boom Boom started to misfire. Radwanska had her ticket to her very first major semifinal on her racket in the second set and tightened up and lost the middle set to Maria Kirilenko on an emotionally challenging day with multiple rain delays. Eventually the match was moved from an outside court yo under the roof on Centre Court and the nearly 3 hour long affair ended with a Radwanska victory. Their career head-to-head is tied at 2-all with Kerber defeating the higher ranked Radwanka during her dream run to the 2011 US Open semifinals and the Pole getting revenge a few weeks later in Japan. The fact that these two players are competing for a historic place in a Wimbledon final will most likely lead to a low-quality, nervy match won by the player who can control her emotions in order to keep control of her game. I suspect that person will be the one who has the reputation of being a 2.0 version of Martina Hingis. PREDICTION: Radwanska.

Serena Williams USA (6) vs.  Victoria Azarenka BLR (2). This showdown between the 2012 Australian Open champion and the 2003, 2005, 2007, 2009 and 2010 Australian Open champion should be the last great women's match of this year's championships. Serena Williams has only lost to Victoria Azarenka once in 8 meetings (2009 Sony Ericsson Open final in Miami), and was clearly hampered in her movement in that match. As she amply demonstrated in her straight sets dismissal of the defending Wimbledon champion, her serve is still the biggest weapon in women's tennis and her movement is at or very near the level which has brought her to 6 finals here, winning 4 titles. Azarenka played well to get past the hottest player on grass this year, Tamira Paszek, in two tights sets. However, Serena is no Tamira Paszek. The only thing which could stop Serena reaching her 7th final (and winning her 5th Wimbledon championship) this year would be if she at age 30 she is suddenly afflicted with nerves which prevents her from playing her best tennis. Serena's puzzling loss to Samantha Stosur in the 2011 US Open final still has never really been explained to my satisfaction. Another factor could Azarenka realizing that she has never matched up well against Serena and thus playing fearless tennis, akin to what she did after dropping the first 3 games in the Australian Open final against Maria Sharapova this year. One needs to remember that this is only Azarenka's 3rd major semifinal, and she is also going to be nervous. It's very possible that the match could be very close, but it is hard to imagine a scenario where Serena is not raising the Venus Rosewater dish above her head on Saturday. PREDICTION: Williams.

Happy July 4th! Atheism is Patriotic

Happy Independence Day! Around the country today there will be banners flying which say "Atheism is Patriotic"!

Godless Wednesday: Only "White Christians" Allowed

Hmmm, maybe the reason why some people are godless is so they are not associated with white Christian racists? According to The Friendly Atheist, here is the "explanation"

The organizer of the event, Rev. William C. Collier says that his Church of God's Chosen (Christian Identity Ministries) is not a hate group but adds that he believes "the white race is God's chosen people."

Collier defends why only white Christians are invited.

Note that the location of Christian Identity Ministries is in Beaverton, Alabama.

No further comment required!

2012 Wimbledon: Men's Quarterfinals Preview

AP

Here are my predictions for the women's quarterfinals at the Wimbledon Championships for 2012. Last year I  correctly predicted 3 of 4 men's quarterfinals and correctly predicted 4 of 4 women's quarterfinals.

Novak Djokovic SRB (1) vs. Richard Gasquet FRA (18) Florian Mayer GER (31). The World #1's inevitable march to a mouth-watering semifinal showdown with 6-time Wimbledon champion Roger Federer continues. His opponent is a German journeyman who is playing in his first ever major quarterfinal playing the best tennis of his life. Mayer's just happy to be here, and although he has a decent grass court game, he simply does not have the arsenal to match what Djokovic brings to the court. Mayer will be lucky to win even a handful of games. PREDICTION: Djokovic.

Roger Federer SUI (3) vs. Mikhail Youzhny RUS (26). Roger Federer has played Mikhail Youzhny 13 times and never lost a match to the mercurial Russian. Youzhny is a talented grass court player, having reached the round of 16 at Wimbledon seven times in his career, with his first quarterfinal appearance occurring this year. The two have played 5 times on grass, and last year at Wimbledon Youzhny won the first set in a tiebreak but ended up losing to Federer in 4 sets. Objectively, Federer is not playing as well this year as he did last year, as evinced by his Houdini-like escapes in the two previous rounds against Xavier Malisse in 4 sets and Julien Benneteau in 5-sets. Youzhny on the other hand, by definition, is playing better here than he has previously, since he has never advanced this far in the tournament before. This could be a very tough match for Federer, especially with the prospect of another historic semifinal showdown with defending champion Novak Djokovic to look forward to. Youzhny knows that no one expects him to win, but he definitely has the tools and mental fortitude to achieve the upset if Federer does not play well. I do think Federer will get through (who would bet against a 16-time champion on his favorite surface?) but it will be quite difficult. PREDICTION: Federer.

David Ferrer ESP (7) vs. Andy Murray GBR (4). This is a repeat of a quarterfinal matchup at the French Open from a few weeks ago where the Spaniard dirt baller demolished his higher ranked British opponent. However, this  match will be at Wimbledon where Ferrer is playing in his 1st ever quarterfinal after having manhandled an opponent a full foot taller than he is while Murray is attempting to reach his 4th consecutive semifinal. This should be the most interesting match of the quarterfinal round; t he two are actually evenly matched in their career head-to-head at 5-all with Ferrer winning all 4 clay court meetings and Murray winning 5 of their 6 hard court clashes. They have never met on grass before, and one would have to give Murray an edge because he has hometown advantage and he has the bigger serve, which grass rewards. But later in the tournament Wimbledon's grass in recent years has been playing more like a clay court, which partially explains Rafael Nadal success here. This year, however, the weather has not cooperated to bake the lawns into something resembling the dirt of Roland Garros. In addition, if it does rain and the roof is closed then an indoor court would also give Murray an advantage, who is on a historic quest to end the decades-long absence of Briton in the finals of Wimbledon. With the Spaniard who had reached his last six Wimbledon finals now missing from the tournament due to an unfortunate 2nd round meeting with a Czech thunderbolt, Murray should be able to ride the hopes of a nation to his date with destiny on the final Sunday. PREDICTION: Murray. 

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga FRA (5) vs. Philipp Kohlschreiber GER (27).  Germans have been doing well at Wimbledon for decades, with greats like Steffi Graf and Boris Becker etching their names into the record books and memories of tennis fans around the world. Since Graf's last appearance here more than a decade ago German tennis went through a sever drought which appears to be ending. A full one-quarter of all the quarterfinalists in the men's and women's draws were from Deutschland this year (Angelique Kerber, Sabine Lisicki, Florian Mayer and Kohlschreiber). Tsonga has only lost once against Kohlschreiber, and that was several years ago. If a 6-time major Wimbledon champion couldn't win a Wimbledon quarterfinal match against the Frenchman last  year despite being two sets up, what chance does a 1st time Wimbledon quarterfinalist have? Exactly. PREDICTION: Tsonga. 

Microsoft CEOs Donate $200K To Approve R-74

Current Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer and former Microsoft CEO (and co-founder) Bill Gates have each donated $100,000 to Washington United for Marriage, the marriage equality group tasked with defending that state's marriage equality law by advocating for the approval of Referendum 74.

KING-5 reports:

Microsoft is just one of several prominent Pacific Northwest businesses that have expressed their support for same-sex marriage, including Starbucks Corp. and Nike Inc.

Referendum 74 was certified for the ballot last month after gay marriage opponents turned in more than 240,000 signatures, far more than the minimum of 120,577 valid voter signatures required.

The referendum seeks to overturn the law passed earlier this year allowing same-sex marriage in the state. That law was passed by the Legislature and signed by Gov. Chris Gregoire in February. The law was supposed to take effect June 7 but was put on hold once the signatures were turned in.

This is an important signal to business interests that the leaders of the state's largest corporation are firmly in support of marriage equality (as are a majority of Washington voters) and are willing  to put their money where their principles are.

Hat/tip to LGBT Think Progress

2012 Wimbledon: 2010 Champ Beats 2011 Champ!

As I predicted yesterday, the 2010 Wimbledon champion eliminated the defending 2011 Wimbledon champion, as Serena Williams beat Petra Kvitova 6-3 7-5 by never losing her serve and breaking her Czech opponent's serve twice.The 13-time major champion raised the level of her play significantly, and the two players traded powerful, accurate groundstrokes, repeatedly painting the lines in a very high quality match. Serena had 27 winners (including 13 aces and no double faults) to 10 unforced errors compared to Kvitova's 21 winners (3 aces but 2 double faults) to 14 unforced errors. Serena converted 2 of 4 breakpoints and saved the one breakpoint she faced in the 10th game of the second set (which also happened to be a  set point), Serena then used that momentum to break Kvitova's serve in the very next game and then continued her excellent serving by blasting two aces and an unreturnable serve to win the final game of the match.

Serena will play the winner of the Victoria Azarenka-Tamira Paszek quarterfinal. Against either player Serena will be the prohibitive favorite to reach her 7th final at Wimbledon on Saturday and join her sister Venus in winning the title 5 times in her career.

2012 Wimbledon: Women's Quarterfinals Preview

AP

Here are my predictions for the women's quarterfinals at the Wimbledon Championships for 2012. Last year I  correctly predicted 3 of 4 men's quarterfinals and correctly predicted 4 of 4 women's quarterfinals.

Maria Sharapova RUS (1)  Sabine Lisicki GER (15) vs. Kim Clijsters BEL Angelique Kerber GER (8). Instead of this all-German match I had expected a quarterfinal meeting between two 4-time major champions, but instead they both lost their fourth round matches. One of these results was an upset, while the others was just  upsetting. Sabine Lisicki was able to learn from her 2011 Wimbledon semifinal loss to Sharapova to realize that she had to go for broke and seize every possible opportunity this year. Most impressively, she was able to execute her plan to perfection and dismiss the betting favorite for this year's championship. Kerber upset most of the tennis world with her straight set drubbing of fan favorite Kim Clijsters in her last Wimbledon appearance. Kerber has played her countrywoman 4 times on tour and has never lost to her. When asked about this, Lisicki quickly responded that she had never beaten Sharapova in 3 attempts before today with the obvious implication that she could overcome a losing head-to-head record. It's true that Boom Boom has a massive serve and a strong return game, but she doesn't move better than the crafty lefty who has won an astonishing 44 matches on tour this year, the most of any player. One year ago, Kerber was an unknown but after surprising everyone to reach her first major semifinal at the 2011 US Open, in the last three majors Kerber has only lost to players who have reached the final. I think that streak will continue to four grand slam tournaments in a row. PREDICTION: Kerber.

Agnieszka Radwanska POL (3) vs. Maria Kirilenko RUS (17). Aggie Radwanska is one of two players who has a chance to reach the World #1 ranking now that the current #1 was dismissed by Sabine Lisicki in the 4th round. Her frenemy Victoria Azarenka is the other player who has a chance to reach the top spot as long as she wins more matches than Radwanska.  Interestingly, the two are in opposite halves of the draw because Vika has beaten Aggie in 7 consecutive matches this year. Radwanska would be an even more controversial #1 player than former #1 Caroline Wozniacki because she has never been to the semifinal of any major. It may seem surprising to some, because Radwanska, like Wozniacki, has no obvious weapon or shot that opponents fear. She is really a player more in the mold of a Martina Hingis, where her most dangerous weapon is her court sense and ability to cause her opponent difficulties by placing the ball with pinpoint accuracy in the position that causes the most damage. She has used this skill to deadly effect in 2012, having won 42 matches this year, just a few behind Angelique Kerber's gaudy total. Regardless, she has, however, been to 5 major quarterfinals, which is 4 more than her Russian opponent. In fact, Radwanska has a clear 5-2 head-to-head edge against Kirilenko and is dead-even against both of her potential semifinal opponents. I suspect that she will be playing in her first major final on Saturday. PREDICTION: Radwanska.

Tamira Paszek AUT  vs.  Victoria Azarenka BLR (2). Azarenka embarrassed  former World #1 Ana Ivanovic in the previous round by conceding a single game in a rout on Centre Court. The win ensures that the 2012 Australian Open champion will have more ranking points than current #1 Maria Sharapova at the end of the tournament. There has not been much chatter about Azarenka's chances of winning this title, probablybecause Serena Williams is still in the tournament and although Azarenka had a 26-match winning streak earlier this year, her record at major tournaments is not very impressive. She has only ever been to two major semifinals, and the first of those was at the 2011 Wimbledon. In fact, who was the opponent she beat to reach her first major semifinal? Tamira Paszek. Last year, Azarenka easily won in straight sets but this year Paszek is undefeated on grass, having won 9 matches in a row on the surface, which includes winning the Eastbourne warm-up tournament. But it's not just the fact that Paszek is playing well on grass that gives her an excellent chance for the upset against Azarenka, it is her mental toughness. In those 9 grass court matches this year she has faced match points down in three of them (against Marion Bartoli and Angelique Kerber at Eastbourne and against Wozniacki in the 1st round here). I really believe that Paszek feels like she can not lose. Unfortunately for her she will probably learn what Azarenka learned earlier this year: no streak lasts forever. PREDICTION: Azarenka. 

Serena Williams USA (6) vs.  Petra Kvitova CZE (4). This showdown between the 2011 Wimbledon champion and the 2010 Wimbledon champion is the marquee match of the tournament, not just of the quarterfinal round. Serena has never lost to Petra, having played her in the last two major tournaments she has won (2010 Australian Open in the 3rd round and in the 2010 Wimbledon semifinals). Kvitova has the power to out-hit almost any player off the court, but it is extremely doubtful that she can do that to the 13-time major champion. Serena has not been playing her best tennis, but she has been displaying her mental toughness by gutting out two consecutive three-set matches (6-7(5) 6-2 9-7 in the 3rd round and 6-1 2-6 7-5 in the 4th) with clutch serving and excellent defense powered by her superior grass-court movement. semifinals. Kvitova has been having an easier time of it, only having dropped one set, in her previous round against 2010 French Open champion Francesca Schiavone. The Czech player is currently higher ranked, but no-one really thinks that seeding alone will determine who wins this match. I believe the most important factor is who wants it more,and at this point in her career that player is the older player. Regardless, the player who wins this match will almost certainly be the prohibitive favorite to win the title against anyone from the top half of the draw. PREDICTION: Williams.

2012 Wimbledon Day 8: Magical Day Marred By Rain

AP

The second Monday at Wimbledon is widely regarded as the best day in tennis all year long. All 32 players left in the draw at this halfway point in the tournament are scheduled to play their 4th round matches on this day, 8 men's matches and 8 women's matches. The winners are rewarded with quarterfinal berths at the most prestigious tournament in the world.

Unfortunately, the weather did not cooperate to allow all the matches to be completed today. Happily, all the women's matches were able to be completed, with Serena Williams, Victoria Azarenka(2), Aggie Radwanska(3), Petra Kvitova(4), Angelique Kerber(8) and Maria Kirilenko(17) to win as expected. However, the #1 seed and 2011 Wimbledon finalist Maria Sharapova(1) was upset by Sabine Lisicki(15).

On the men's side only 3 matches were able to be completed, in the top half of the draw: Novak Djokovic(1) dismissed countryman Victor Troicki, Roger Federer(3) was able to survive an injury scare to extend his winning streak over Xavier Malisse to 10 in a row to reach his 33rd consecutive major quarterfinal. Federer's opponent will be Mikhail Youzhny(26) who survived a 5-set showdown with Dennis Istomin of Uzebkistan to reach his first Wimbledon quarterfinal after losing 6 4th round encounters.

Match of the Day: S. Lisicki GER (15) d. M. Sharapova RUS (1) 6-4 6-3.

Facebook and Same-Sex Marriage: Happy Together

Facebook co-founder Chris Hughes (left) and former Freedom to Marry
political director Sean Eldridge were married this weekend at home in Garrison, NY

Lots of news combining Facebook and gay marriage today. First comes the news that one of Facebook's founders, Chris Hughes, got married to his longtime boyfriend Sean Eldridge at their home in Garrison, NY.

From the marriage announcement in yesterday's New York Times:

Mr. Hughes (left), 28, works from New York, Garrison and Washington as the publisher and editor in chief of The New Republic magazine. He graduated magna cum laude from Harvard. He founded Facebook with Mark Zuckerberg, Dustin Moskovitz and Eduardo Saverin. Mr. Hughes also led the online organizing for Barack Obama’s 2008 presidential campaign. He is the son of Brenda Hughes and Arlyn Ray Hughes of Wilmington, N.C. His mother retired as a mathematics teacher at Newton-Conover High School in Newton, N.C. His father retired as a sales manager at the Snyder Paper Company in Hickory, N.C. 

Mr. Eldridge, 25, is the founder and treasurer of Protect Our Democracy, an advocacy group based in Garrison that seeks campaign finance reform. He is also the president of Hudson River Ventures, an investment firm in Garrison. He was until July 2011, the political director of Freedom to Marry, a group that advocates same-sex marriage. He graduated from Brown.

Congratulations to Sean and Chris!

In other Facebook and gay marriage news today it was announced that the social media behemoth will include new icons that will allow users to indicate that their relationship status is that they are married to someone of the same sex. Last year Facebook made news when they added options like "in a civil union" and "in a domestic partnership" as possible relationship status selections.


GLAAD reports:

Facebook has rolled out a new feature providing additional recognition for its users who are married to a person of the same sex. Now these users who have indicated on their Facebook timeline that they are married will be recognized by new same-sex marriage icons, rather than the marriage icon used for straight married couples.

Of course, one of the first questions that comes to mind is "does anyone still use Facebook?" But besides that, this is an excellent demonstration that the good guys continue to win the ongoing kulturkampf over LGBT equality as one of the most visible companies in Silicon Valley (and really, the world). Facebook has previously demonstrated its bona fides on the side of LGBT equality by releasing an It Gets Better video by their employees, taken active steps to stop bullying and recognizing LGBT pride through a Facebook "hack."

Hat/tip to kenneth in the 212 and joe.my.god.

2012 Wimbledon: Federer gets to 33rd QF in a Row

There's a reason why they call him the Maestro, the Greatest of all Time and the Federer Express. Despite going off the court to have a lower back injury treated in the first set against Xavier Malisse, 16-time major champion Roger Federer was able to reach his astonishing 33rd major quarterfinal in a row by winning 7-6(1) 6-1 4-6 6-3 despite being down an early break in the 1st, 3rd and 4th sets!


Federer has now been in the quarterfinals of every major tournament since the 2004 Wimbledon (which he won) and since he had reached 4 major quarterfinals before that, he has a career total so far of 37! He has played in an astonishing 51 major tournaments in a row.

2012 Wimbledon: Sharapova(1) Upset By Lisicki!

Getty

Getty

World #1 Maria Sharapova was upset by Sabine Lisicki(15) 6-4 6-3 by out-serving and out-returning the 2012 French Open champion. The match was a repeat of last year's Wimbledon semifinal, which like all their three previous meetings, was won by the Russian 4-time major champion. This time Lisicki won by playing boldly and taking chances, none more important than on match point where the German nicknamed "Boom Boom" bashed a second serve ace at 110 mph to seal her 2nd quarterfinal berth in two years. It was Lisicki's first win over a reigning #1 ranked player.

Sharapova's hold on the #1 ranking is a tenuous one. If 2012 Australian Open champion Victoria Azarenka(2) beats Ana Ivanovic(14) later this afternoon, she will return to the top spot she held for 19 weeks earlier this year during her amazing winning streak of 26 matches to begin the year. Also, Aggie Radwanska could become #1 if she wins the tournament or advances two rounds further into than her frenemy Vika.

Eye Candy: Bobby McCarther (reprise)

Bobby McCarther is a very experienced model who has appeared as Eye Candy here before (July 5, 2010). Hopefully it won't take another two years before I can find more stunning pictures of this handsome man. He has his own eponymous website at BobbyMcCarther.com, a Model Mayhem entry and a Facebook page. He's listed as 6'1" and 173 pounds but usually does not list his real age. Regardless, he is clearly in good shape whatever his age is. Timeless!

Analyzing This SCOTUS Term To Predict The Next

In today's New York Times reporter Adam Liptak analyzes the just-completed 2011-12 term of the United States Supreme Court and unearths some interesting (and surprising) facts. The Court heard oral arguments in 65 cases and summarily decided 10 other cases without oral argument. That's 75 decisions in which certioari was granted despite getting literally thousands of appeals from all the lower courts in the land.

Chief Justice John Roberts was only 1 percentage point behind Anthony Kennedy, who is widely viewed as the fulcrum around which the nation's highest court pivots around, in the percentage of cases in which they were in the majority (92% to 93%). This number is a widely watched measure as a signifier for the most "powerful" or influential member of the Court.

The court decided 15 cases by 5-to-4 votes, roughly in line with earlier terms. It was also not unusual that two-thirds of those decisions divided along ideological lines, with Justice Kennedy joining either the court’s four more liberal members (Justices Kagan, Stephen G. Breyer, Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Sonia Sotomayor) or its four more conservative ones (Chief Justice Roberts and Justices Alito, Scalia and Clarence Thomas). 

What was striking this year was that Justice Kennedy, a moderate conservative, swung right and left an equal number of times. Since 2000, there have been only two terms in which Justice Kennedy did not vote with the conservatives at least 60 percent of the time in such ideologically divided cases.

Is Kennedy evolving to the left? I guess I'm pretty happy with a 10-point shift towards liberal results instead of his usual 60-40 split between conservative and liberal positions. Maybe it's because he seems to be getting closer to Elena Kagan, since the two voted similarly 83% of the time this term. There are only two pairs of justices who voted similarly more than 90% of the time  (you guessed it!) Antonin Scalia and Clarence Thomas with the other (somewhat surprising) pair being George W. Bush appointees Roberts and  Samuel Alito. I guess "Scalito" is not living up to his reputation to become "a little Scalia" on the Court.
And that's a good thing. As his absolutely unacceptable fit of pique in the Arizona immigration ruling aptly demonstrated, even one Scalia on the Supreme Court is one too many!

You should really read Liptak's entire piece for yourself. There are some big gay rights cases coming up in the 2012-13 term, most likely involving the so-called Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA) and another determining the constitutionality of California's attempt to withdraw marriage rights from same-sex couples by allowing voters to amend the state constitution after California's Supreme Court had ruled such a right exists (2008's Proposition 8). These cases are known as Gill and Perry, respectively. We'll know on the first Monday of October whether the Court will indeed accept these cases for final review (and issue a ruling by this time next year). There are also some very high-stakes cases coming in the new term dealing with race. The Court has already agreed to hear oral arguments in Fisher v. Texas which it could use to completely strike down race-based affirmative action in higher education. In addition, there are several voting rights cases at the federal appellate circuit level, particularly Shelby County, Alabama v. Holder, which will almost certainly reach the Court in the 2012-13 term and could be used to strike down Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act of 1965. It's this provision of federal civil rights legislation which has been instrumental in putting a check on Republican politicians' attempt to suppress the voting rights of Black and Latino voters in states like Florida, Pennsylvania, Texas, Wisconsin and others through enactment of "voter identification" laws.

In the meantime it is useful to analyze last year's term to see if any ideological movement can be discerned which can help predict how the Court will rule in Gill and Perry, though as the ruling upholding the health care reform law demonstrated, accurately predicting how the Court will rule in any particular case is almost impossible!

Romney-Zimmerman 2012?

Comedian Bill Maher is attempting to help presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney select a Vice Presidential running mate. One of his suggestions is that Romney choose George Zimmerman, the Latino gun enthusiast who is claiming that Florida's "Stand Your Ground" law empowered him to shoot and kill an unarmed 17-year-old Black kid named Trayvon Martin who was walking around "looking suspicious" in his neighborhood.

After all:

"It's unorthodox, but who better than George Zimmerman to personify your campaign theme of, I think the black guy's up to no good?"

Indeed.