SATURDAY POLITICS: John Duran Snubs Sheila Kuehl In L.A. Supervisor Runoff

In a pretty shocking turn of events, openly gay West Hollywood city councilman John Duran has endorsed Bobby Shriver instead of openly lesbian Sheila Kuehl in the run-off for Los Angeles County Supervisor. Kuehl placed first and Duran third in the June 3 primary election.

Karen Ocamb reports for Frontiers L.A.:

“A lot of our old assumptions are no longer true,” Duran told Frontiers on July 7. “The idea of the first gay this or that has run its course. We just had a lesbian Speaker of the Assembly replace a gay Speaker of the Assembly. We have a gay City Controller and gay City Councilmembers in L.A. and West Hollywood. It was a big issue in the 1990s, and we fought hard for it—to have LGBT people immersed in the power structure. Now we’re in it. We are it. Now how people vote is based not on whether someone is gay or straight—but on whether we agree or disagree with them—and that’s how it should be.” 

Duran said he decided on Shriver after having lunch with both candidates and participating with them in 25 debates. “In all those debates, I found myself agreeing with what Bobby was saying—in particular, his experience and how he perceives local government—and many times I was in disagreement with Sheila.”

This is a very disappointing development. John Duran is a friend of mine and I am stunned to read that he thinks that LGBT people have made so much progress that it is not important whether one of the most powerful important elected positions in the country (Los Angeles County Supervisor) should be filled by an openly gay politician. I vehemently disagree with this sentiment. Even if the person involved was not Sheila Kuehl, one of the smartest politicians ever to serve in the California Legislature (and who was the first openly LGBT member of that body), Duran would still be wrong. The fact that he is endorsing someone other than Kuehl when she is still in the run-off makes Duran's decision worse than wrong.

Celebrity Friday: Fabio Fognini Poses Nude!

Well-known tennis hottie Fabio Fognini is posing nude for UK Cosmopolitan to raise awareness for male cancer. I ran into Fognini in person practicing shirtless when I was at the 2011 US Open. I guess the idea of tennis players posing nude is getting more popular!

Celebrity Friday: Tweet With @IanMcKellen Today 1PM EDT About #ViciousPBS

Sir Ian McKellen and Sir Derek Jacobi are starring as a longtime same-sex couple in a British comedy airing on PBS called "Vicious." You can tweet with Sir Ian (@IanMcKellen) at 1pm EDT today using the hashtag #ViciousPBS. It should be fun!

Colorado Marriage Law Struck Down (Decision Stayed); Marriage Licenses Being Issued In Boulder and Denver

Well, well, well! Good things are happening in Colorado regarding marriage equality this week. Just yesterday, a state judge ruled that Colorado's ban(s) on marriage equality are unconstitutional. Colorado enacted a civil unions law last year (doesn't that idea seem quaint now, post-Windsor?) and the judge used its existence as part of his reasoning for why Colorado's marriage laws are discriminatory in his opinion in Brinkman v. Long:

“The Court holds that the Marriage Bans violate plaintiffs’ due process and equal protection guarantees under the Fourteenth Amendments to the U.S. Constitution." 

“The existence of civil unions is further evidence of discrimination against same-sex couples and does not ameliorate the discriminatory effect of the Marriage Bans.”

But wait, there's more! After the 10th U.S. Circuit issued a ruling striking down Utah's marriage law a few weeks ago, the County Clerk of Boulder read the decision (which was stayed pending appeal) and decided to start issuing marriage licenses. In order to get her to stop doing that, the Governor and Attorney General agreed to file a statement with the court that the marriage laws of Colorado are unconstitutional but to agree to wait until a final ruling is issued by the Colorado Supreme Court or the U.S. Supreme Court to issue marriage licenses. However, the judge in that lawsuit ruled in favor of the Boulder County clerk and said she can continue issuing marriage licenses:

Boulder County clerk who has been issuing marriage licenses to same-sex couples in defiance of Colorado’s gay-marriage ban can continue, a judge ruled Thursday. Boulder County Judge Andrew Hartman decided county clerk Hillary Hall can ignore a federal stay on a ruling from the 10th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in Denver that states cannot set gender requirements for marriage. The judge said gay marriage is still technically illegal in Colorado but that Hall’s behavior was not harming anyone. But he said all who receive a license should be warned that they could still be invalid if a judge finds after trial that Hall didn’t have the authority to issue them. Hartman also noted that every judge — including one in Colorado the previous afternoon — in the past year has ruled that gay marriage bans are unconstitutional and that Colorado’s prohibition is “hanging by a thread.”

In light of this decision, according to the Denver Post clerks in Denver and Pueblo counties have also started issuing marriage licenses. So, unless a court steps in soon (which at this point would probably have to be the Colorado Supremes) marriage equality is coming to the Centennial State in hours instead of months!

Hat/tip to Joe.My.God

2014 EMMYS: Nominations Announced! Game Of Thrones Leads With 20!

The Prime Time Emmy awards are out and Game of Thrones is leading the pack with 20 nominations (in 19 categories) and nods for several of the acting cast: Lena Headey (1st nomination as Cersei Lannister), Dianne Rigg (2nd nomination as Olenna Tyrell) and Peter Dinklage (4th consecutive nomination as Tyion Lannister).

WinterisComing.net lists the nominations the series earned for its recently concluded fourth season:

• Outstanding Drama Series
• Outstanding Supporting Actress – Lena Headey
• Outstanding Supporting Actor – Peter Dinklage
• Outstanding Guest Actress – Diana Rigg
• Outstanding Writing for a Drama Series – David Benioff and D.B. Weiss (“The Children”)
• Outstanding Directing for a Drama Series – Neil Marshall (“The Watchers on the Wall”)
• Outstanding Casting for a Drama Series- Nina Gold and Robert Sterne
• Outstanding Music Composition For A Series (Original Dramatic Score)- Ramin Djawadi
• Outstanding Art Direction For A Contemporary Or Fantasy Series (Single-Camera)
• Outstanding Cinematography (2 nominations):
  • Jonathan Freeman (“Two Swords”)
  • Anette Haellmigk (“The Lion and the Rose”)
• Outstanding Costumes for a Series (“The Lion and the Rose”)
• Outstanding Hairstyling for a Single-Camera Series (“The Lion and the Rose”)
• Outstanding Makeup For A Single-Camera Series-Non-Prosthetic (“Oathkeeper”)
• Outstanding Prosthetic Makeup For A Series, Miniseries, Movie Or A Special (“The Children”)
• Outstanding Sound Editing For A Series (“The Watchers on the Wall”)
• Outstanding Sound Mixing For A Comedy Or Drama Series – One Hour (“The Watchers on the Wall”)
• Outstanding Special and Visual Effects
• Outstanding Stunt Coordination For A Drama Series, Miniseries Or Movie
• Outstanding Interactive Program – Game of Thrones Premiere : Facebook Live and Instagram

The key interest was in the large categories of Best Drama Series and Best Comedy series, where the nominees were:

OUTSTANDING COMEDY SERIES:“The Big Bang Theory”
“Louie”
“Modern Family”
“Orange is the New Black”
“Silicon Valley”
“Veep” 

OUTSTANDING DRAMA SERIES:“Breaking Bad”
“Downton Abbey”
“Game of Thrones”
“House of Cards”
“Mad Men”
“True Detective”

The interesting entries are the surprising inclusion of Silicon Valley (in the place of Girls) for Best Comedy Series and the inclusion of True Detective and Downton Abbey squeezing out The Good Wife even though that network series had three of its principals nominated (Joanna Margulies, Christine Baranski and Josh Charles).

The awards are given out Monday August 25 in a ceremony hosted by Seth Meyers.

MOVIE REVIEW: Edge of Tomorrow

This summer has been somewhat disappointing to me in the number of summer blockbusters I have been interested in seeing. Maybe I'm just getting older  but I really don't have much interest in seeing the any Transformers movie, or the new reboot of Spider-Man or the sequel to How To Train Your Dragon, even though these may be fine movie. Some of the movies I thought I would want to see ended up getting pretty mediocre reviews on rottentomatoes.com (like Godzilla: 74%, A Million Ways To Die in The West: 17%) since generally I won't see anything that is not above an 80% rating. I did enjoy X-Men: Days of Future Past (which has a 92% rating). Really the only other movie I've seen from this year is the interesting The Grand Budapest Hotel (91% rating).

I really did not expect to go see the new Tom Cruise flick Edge of Tomorrow but when I found out that it had a 90% rating on rottentomatoes.com I was intrigued. When I discovered that it was science fiction and Emily Blunt was in it, I decided to go with some of my friends on July 4th to see it. Apparently we were the exceptions to the rule because the Hollywood trades are full of stories bemoaning the pitiful box-office for this usually boffo weekend.

Edge of Tomorrow is an adaptation of the Japanese novella titled All You Need Is Kill published in 2009. Tom Cruise plays Major William Cage, an American public-relations officer who is sent over to England on the eve of a huge united assault by human forces against an alien invasion which has basically decimated most of western Europe. Emily Blunt plays Rita Vrataski, a soldier whose fighting exploits are near legendary and whose story Cage has used effectively in the media to encourage hundreds of thousands of people to sign up to fight the alien invaders, known as "Mimics." Blunt is known as "The Angel of Verdun" for basically singlehandedly saving dozens of lives against overwhelming odds and as "Full Metal Bitch" by others. Her image is on recruitment posters seen throughout the film.

The story proceeds with Maj. Cage waking up on a helicopter on his way to London to meet  General Brigham (Brendan Gleeson), the commander of International United Defense Forces (IUDF). Cage is told at that meeting (much to his surprise and dismay since he has no combat training whatsoever) that he being sent to the front lines of tomorrow's surprise attack on the enemy in France. Cage's deployment to the front goes wrong within seconds and he is killed within minutes of anding on the shore when the enemy responds with surprisingly vicious (and effective) force to the IUDF sneak attack. Amazingly, Cage wakes up and proceeds to relive the 24 hours from the time he regains consciousness before the surprise attack over and over again. It's like a mash-up of Groundhog Day with Full Metal Jacket. Eventually he finds Vrataski and the discovers that she had previously experienced the same time loop phenomenon and they try to figure out how to exploit this fact to defeat the Mimics.

The time loop is depicted in a nice way, with minimal exposition (although of course it doesn't make much actual sense) but the best part of this aspect of the movie is that Cage's deaths (time line resets) are depicted in a humorous fashion where basically at the drop of a hat Vrataski will threaten Cage with a bullet to the head in order to reset the time line.

There is a nice bit of misdirection in the third act which I was surprised by and then the film ends with some exciting set action pieces. All in all, I was pleasantly surprised by the high quality of Edge of Tomorrow.

Title: Edge of Tomorrow.
Director: Doug Liman.
Running Time: 1 hour, 53 minutes.
MPAA Rating: Rated PG-13 for intense sequences of sci-fi action and violence, language and brief suggestive material.
Release Date: June 6, 2014.
Viewing Date: July 4, 2014.

Writing: B.
Acting: A-.
Visuals: B+.
Impact: B.

Overall Grade: B+/B (3.25/4.0).

Major LGBT Groups Withdraw Support For ENDA in Wake of Supreme Court's Hobby Lobby Decision

Ruh-Oh! Things have started to come off the rails for the current version of the "federal LGBT rights bill," also known as ENDA or the Employment Non-Discrimination Act. The problems is that the current version of the bill (which passed the United States Senate last year) includes an "overly generous" religious exemption that would allow discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation or gender identity in certain settings where the equivalent discrimination on the basis of race or sex.

In light of the recent 50th anniversary of the landmark 1964 Civil Rights Act and the Supreme Court's Hobby Lobby decision focusing more attention on religious exemptions and how they apply to federal statutes, a number of mainstream LGBT organizations have taken the unusual step of coming out to oppose legislation that they have previously supported, legislation which would expand prohibitions on discrimination for millions of workers in the United States, but would also codify a religious exemption to discriminate against LGBT people.

Joint Statement on Withdrawal of Support for ENDA and Call for Equal Workplace Protections for LGBT People

The following national LGBT legal organizations have signed onto the below statement: American Civil Liberties Union; Gay & Lesbian Advocates & Defenders; Lambda Legal; National Center for Lesbian Rights; and Transgender Law Center. 

The provision in the current version of the Employment Non-Discrimination Act (ENDA) that allows religious organizations to discriminate based on sexual orientation and gender identity has long been a source of significant concern to us. Given the types of workplace discrimination we see increasingly against LGBT people, together with the calls for greater permission to discriminate on religious grounds that followed immediately upon the Supreme Court's decision last week in Burwell v. Hobby Lobby, it has become clear that the inclusion of this provision is no longer tenable. It would prevent ENDA from providing protections that LGBT people desperately need and would make very bad law with potential further negative effects. Therefore, we are announcing our withdrawal of support for the current version of ENDA. 

For decades, our organizations have challenged anti-LGBT workplace discrimination in the courts and worked for the passage of inclusive non-discrimination laws at the local, state, and federal level. We do this work because of the devastating toll workplace discrimination has had, and continues to have, on the lives of LGBT people. It is unacceptable that in the year 2014, men and women are forced to hide who they are or whom they love when they go to work. 

The current patchwork of legal protections at the state and local level has left LGBT people vulnerable to discrimination. For this reason, we have supported federal legislation to explicitly protect LGBT people from discrimination in the workplace, and have urged President Obama to sign an executive order banning federal contractors from discriminating on the basis of sexual orientation and gender identity or expression. 

ENDA's discriminatory provision, unprecedented in federal laws prohibiting employment discrimination, could provide religiously affiliated organizations - including hospitals, nursing homes and universities - a blank check to engage in workplace discrimination against LGBT people. The provision essentially says that anti-LGBT discrimination is different - more acceptable and legitimate - than discrimination against individuals based on their race or sex. If ENDA were to pass and be signed into law with this provision, the most important federal law for the LGBT community in American history would leave too many jobs, and too many LGBT workers, without protection. Moreover, it actually might lessen non-discrimination protections now provided for LGBT people by Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and very likely would generate confusion rather than clarity in federal law. Finally, such a discrimination provision in federal law likely would invite states and municipalities to follow the unequal federal lead. All of this is unacceptable. 

The Supreme Court's decision in Hobby Lobby has made it all the more important that we not accept this inappropriate provision. Because opponents of LGBT equality are already misreading that decision as having broadly endorsed rights to discriminate against others, we cannot accept a bill that sanctions discrimination and declares that discrimination against LGBT people is more acceptable than other kinds of discrimination. 

Our ask is a simple one: Do not give religiously affiliated employers a license to discriminate against LGBT people when they have no such right to discriminate based on race, sex, national origin, age, disability, or genetic information. Religiously affiliated organizations are allowed to make hiring decisions based on their religion, but nothing in federal law authorizes discrimination by those organizations based on any other protected characteristic, and the rule should be the same for sexual orientation and gender identity or expression. Religious organizations are free to choose their ministers or faith leaders, and adding protections for sexual orientation and gender identity or expression will not change that. 

These concerns are not hypothetical. Increasingly, this is what employment discrimination against LGBT people looks like. Take the example of Matthew Barrett. In July 2013, Matthew was offered a job as food services director at Fontbonne Academy, a college prep high school in Milton, Massachusetts that is affiliated with the Roman Catholic Sisters of St. Joseph of Boston. Fontbonne Academy has employees and admits students of various faiths. Yet, two days after Matthew listed his husband as his emergency contact on the standard employment paperwork, and despite twenty years of work in the food services industry, his job offer was rescinded. Although nothing about the food services job involved religious rituals or teaching, Matthew was told by an administrator that the school was unable to hire him because "the Catholic religion doesn't recognize same-sex marriage." The current version of ENDA would authorize this sexual orientation discrimination. 

As the national outcry against SB 1062 in Arizona (and similar proposals in numerous other states) demonstrates, the American people oppose efforts to misuse religious liberty as an excuse to discriminate against LGBT people. It is time for ENDA (and the LGBT non-discrimination executive order for federal contractors) to reflect this reality. Until the discriminatory exemption is removed so that anti-LGBT discrimination is treated the same as race, sex, national origin, age, disability, or genetic information under federal workplace laws, we think ENDA should not move forward in Congress. In addition, we will oppose any similar provisions at the state and local level. We are hopeful that the many members of Congress who support this historic, critically important legislation will agree that singling out LGBT people for an unequal and unfair exemption from basic workplace protection falls unacceptably short of the civil rights standards that have served our nation well against other types of discrimination for fifty years. We stand ready and eager to work with them to achieve the long-sought goal of explicit, effective federal non-discrimination protections for LGBT people.

That's pretty deep!

QUEER QUOTE: Utah Appeals Marriage Equality Loss At 10th Circuit To U.S. Supreme Court

Utah has decided against delaying the final decision in its fight to defend its discriminatory marriage laws and has announced that it will appeal it's loss at the 10th Circuit Court of Appeals to the Supreme Court.

The following statement from a spokesperson from the Utah Attorney General's office is today's Queer Quote:

To obtain clarity and resolution from the highest court, the Utah Attorney General will not seek en banc review of the Kitchen v. Herbert Tenth Circuit decision, but wll file a Petition for Writ of Certiorari to the United States Supreme Court in the coming weeks. Attorney General Reyes has a sworn duty to defend the laws of our state. Utah's Constitutional Amendment 3 is presumed to be constitutional unless the highest court deems otherwise.

Actually, since both a federal district court judge on December 20, 2013 and a majority of a 3-judge panel of the 10th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals on June 25, 2014 has found Amendment 3 to be unconstitutional it is curious indeed that the Attorney General thinks that the law is presumed to be unconstitutional unless the highest court deems it otherwise. The Supreme Court could deny the Writ of Certiorari and marriage equality would come to Utah (and all the rest of the states in the Tenth Circuit's jurisdiction without the high court "deeming" anything.

As I intimated earlier in this post, by declining to appeal en banc (ask all the judges on the Tenth Circuit to consider the case) this means that a definitive question on marriage equality nationwide will almost certainly be known by this time next year (the end of the 2014-2015 Supreme Court term).

The interesting question will the Supreme Court use this case or possibly the 4th Circuit case from Virginia (Bostic) or the numerous 6th Circuit cases (where every state in the Circuit has a marriage equality case under stay) to make its decision? If all 3 appellate panels all rule in favor of marriage equality, will the Supremes even take the case at all?

TENNIS TUESDAY: Djokovic Returns To #1; Kvitova Jumps To #4

Novak Djokovic has returned to the top spot in the ATP Tour rankings after winning his second Wimbledon title by defeating 17-time major champion Roger Federer in five sets.

Since relinquishing the top spot to Rafael Nadal last year, the Serbian has compiled a 54-4 match record and seven titles — including four ATP World Tour Masters 1000s, the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals and the Wimbledon crown — from eight finals. 

Nadal, who spent 143 weeks at No. 1, put together a 54-11 mark — highlighted by three titles from seven finals — over the same period. 

[...] 

Djokovic begins his third stint and 102nd week at the top of men’s professional tennis. He first ascended to No. 1 in the Emirates ATP Rankings on 4 July 2011, following his first Wimbledon triumph, and held the top spot for 53 weeks. He reclaimed the No. 1 ranking from Federer on 5 November 2012, before relinquishing it to Nadal on 7 October 2013. 

Petra Kvitova has returned to World #4 ranking on the WTA tour after winning her second Wimbledon title by demolishing 20-year-old Canadian Eugenie Bouchard in the final 6-3 6-0. Serena Williams remains at #1.

WATCH: Fireworks Filmed Via Airborne Drone

6 million views on YouTube and counting...

QUEER QUOTE: NGLTF Acknowledges 50th Anniversary Of 1964 Cvil Rights Act

Last Wednesday, July 2 2014, was the 50th anniversary of the enactment of the 1964 Civil Rights Act, one of the key moments in the fight for equality in this country. Re Carey, the executive director of the National gay and Lesbian Task Force 9more commonly known as The Task Force) acknowledged the historical significance of the moment by sending out a press statement which is today's Queer Quote:

"Fifty years ago, President Johnson signed the Civil Rights Act. It was the culmination of historic actions such as the March on Washington that we commemorated last summer. The landmark act was more than a legal remedy to the most appalling discrimination and inequality, it represented the hopes and dreams of millions of people who simply wanted to fulfill the promise of America. Today, we can celebrate significant progress, including important advances in recent days such as President Obama's upcoming executive orders to protect LGBTQ employees. But we still live in a world where racism permeates every aspect of our society; where a trans person of color can be turned away from the polling station because of their race and gender identity, where a Latino man can be profiled, stopped and frisked because of his race and presumed sexual orientation, and where millions of women — regardless of race — get paid less than their male counterparts. So, as we celebrate today, let¹s fight even harder for a tomorrow where everyone experiences true freedom and justice."

Good job, NGLTF!

EYE CANDY: Raciel Castro (Again!)

I think Raciel Castro is my new favorite male model! He first appeared as Eye Candy a few weeks ago (May 19, 2014) but I think he may become a regular appearances here. Sources say he is 22-year-old, 5'9" and 200 pounds of solid muscle.

He has almost 100,000 followers on Instagram. I'm one, are you?

Abaddon's Gate Wins LOCUS Award For Best Novel!

Abaddon's Gate, the third book in my favorite science fiction series, The Expanse, has apparently won the 2014 Locus Award for Best Science Fiction novel. My friend Karen Lord's book, The Best Of All Possible Worlds, was also nominated. Which is an amazing notion to me. It is so cool to see one of my best friends from high school having professional success as a science fiction author!

Congrats to James S.A. Corey (and Karen)!

2014 WIMBLEDON: Djokovic Outlasts Federer To Win 7th Major

Much to my surprise, Novak Djokovic defeated Roger Federer 6-7(7) 6-4 7-6(2) 5-7 6-4 to win the 2014 Wimbledon championship and his 7th major championship in his 14th major final. By winning their 35th meeting, Djokovic has now won 17 (and lost 18) of their matches and is 6-all in majors and 1-all in major finals. Djokovic will become World #1 since he improved on his result of losing the Wimbledon final to Andy Murray last year. Federer will rise to World #3.

The match was just shy of four hours long, with many, many changes of momentum throughout. Djokovic got the first set point in the tiebreaker but ended up losing it and the first set. However he earned breakpoints early in the second set and eventually broke and nursed his lead to grab the second set and even the match at 1-set all. The third set was very tight with Federer delivering an incredible serving performance (13 aces) but errors on his usually deadly forehand win cost him the third set tiebreak. In the fourth set Djokovic earned an early break again and nursed his lead to 5-2 when it looked like the match would soon be over. But Federer held serve in the 8th game and when Djokovic served for the match he got down doublebreak point and Federer broke hi for the first time in the match well into its third hour. However, the twists and turns were not done yet. Serving 4-5, Djokovic earned a breakpoint which was championship point and Federer hit a serve very close to the line that was called out. The challenge showed that Federer's serve was shown to be in and ruled an ace. Match point saved. The 7-time Wimbledon champion used this momentum to break Djokovic in the next game and served out the 4th set to force a 5th set in the Wimbledon final for the fourth time since 2007 (all of which featured Federer). In the fifth set, Djokovic served first and saved a break point in the 5th game and finally earned double breakpoint in the 10th game which was also championship point and this time Federer cracked with a backhand error to lose the game, set and match.

Overall it was probably the best match of the year, with Federer hitting 29 aces (5 double faults) and 29 unforced errors overall to his opponent's 27. Djokovic hit 68 winners (only 13 aces) while Federer hit 75 winners (including aces) which indicates Djokovic's better play from the back of the court.

Interestingly, this is the second Wimbledon title for Djokovic and the last time he won it, so did Petra Kvitova, who also won her second Wimbledon title this weekend.

2014 WIMBLEDON: Men's Final Preview

Roger Federer (SUI) [4] vs. Novak Djokovic (SRB) [1]

The players in the men's final of the 2014 Wimbledon championships are set. For the 35th time, Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic will meet in a professional tennis match. Federer leads their rivalry 18-16 and won the one only major final the two contested (2007 US Open) as well as their one grass court meeting (2012 Wimbledon semifinals). Last year I correctly predicted Andy Murray would beat Djokovic in the men's final. This year I correctly predicted Petra Kvitova would win the women's title over Genie Bouchard. On the men's side I correctly predicted 2 of 2 men's quarterfinals and 3 of 4 men's quarterfinals. Here are my reviews of this year's men's semifinals and my preview of the men's final.

WHAT HAPPENED: Men's Semifinals Review

Novak Djokovic (SRB) [1] d. Grigor Dimitrov (BUL) [11] 6-4 3-6 7-6(2) 7-6(7). This was one of the best matches on the men's side of the draw. The 23-year-old Bulgarian was playing in his first major semifinal while Djokovic has reached the semifinals of every major except one of the last 16 played. The #1 seed has reached 5 consecutive Wimbledon semifinals in the last five years. This match looked like it was going to be routine when Djokovic was a set and 3-1 up. However, after Dimitrov was able to escape out of a tricky service game he was able to break back in the very next game and finally earned a lead by holding serve and breaking again. The third and fourth sets were decided by tiebreaks but there were very different tiebreaks. In the 3rd set tiebreak the result was never in doubt while in the 4th set tiebreak, Dimitrov had multiple set points but the 2011 Wimbledon champion was able to close out the match and reach his 14th major final.

Roger Federer (SUI) [4] d. Milos Raonic (CAN) [8] 6-4 6-4 6-4. This should have been a tricky match for Federer to win because the Canadian youngster has one of the biggest serves in the men's game and thus one would expect plenty of tiebreakers, which one would often expect to go to the bigger server (c.f. John Isner). But as I said in my semifinals preview, Federer is quite experienced in blocking back huge serves, and because he had been serving so well in the tournament (broken just once, in the first set against Stan Wawrinka) he knew that all he had to do was take advantage of any opportunities he had on the Raonic serve and he would have a good day. Federer ended up having 7 breakpoints and converting on 3 of them. He had only one breakpoint against his own serve and saved it. That basically was the match in a nutshell. If rallies went longer than 4 or 5 strokes then Federer was completely in control of the point. If Raonic missed a first serve then you felt he was automatically in trouble, and because his return game is not strong Federer was able to hold his serve at love repeatedly. Federer is now 9-0 in Wimbledon semifinals.

WHAT WILL HAPPEN: Men's Final Preview
Roger Federer (SUI) [4] vs. Novak Djokovic (SRB) [1]. This is Federer-Djokovic XXXV, the thirty-fifth meeting between the 17-time major champion from Switzerland and the 5-time major champion from Serbia. Of the big four Federer's match-up with Djokovic has always been the most in The Maestro's favor. Obviously, his match-up with Nadal is disastrous and his match-up with Murray is very close (currently 10-11 in the Scot's favor). The fact that Nick Kyrgios eliminated Nadal and that Dimitrov eliminated Murray is great news for Federer's chances. 

Although I think many people think that Djokovic is going to win this match, I agree with Nick Bolleteri that Federer has an excellent chance at the "upset." In fact I don't even think it is that much of an upset if Federer wins another grass court title. The number of times he has lost on grass in his career is miniscule. He has only ever lost once in a Wimbledon final once, in 2008's "Greatest Match Ever Played." Federer has already beaten Djokovic twice this year (Dubai and Monte Carlo, both places where the Serb was the defending champion). He also beat Djokovic on grass in 2012 in the Wimbledon semifinals when Djokovic was playing some of his best tennis, having just reached the 2012 Roland Garros final just weeks before. Federer has won 99% of his service games in the tournament to date, and even though he has not had to face  a great returner like Djokovic, I still feel like he is delivering enough variety and power with his new racquet that this will make this aspect of his game even stronger. The area where Djokovic has improved is in his serve. He currently has 73 aces to Federer's 69 (but he has also lost 3 more sets than Federer) so far. With both players serving well I suspect this match will resemble a 1990s-2000s era grass court match of the Sampras era, which would suit Federer perfectly. If it becomes a match with long drawn out points, then that is advantage Djokovic. If it rains and the roof is closed, that is advantage Federer.
I definitely expect it to be a close match, not a mismatch like this year's women's final.

To me the best thing about this match is that I will be happy with whomever wins. If Djokovic wins, he will improve to 7-7 in major finals, surpassing the career major total of his coach, Boris Becker, and reclaiming the World #1 ranking from Nadal, most likely cementing the top ranking for the year. If Federer wins, he will win his record 18th major, improving to 18-7 in major finals, increase his lead to 19-16 over Djokovic, rise to World #3 in the rankings and break his tie with Pete Sampras for the most Wimbledon titles (7) won in the modern era. He will also become the oldest player (at age 32) to win Wimbledon, and (presumably?) the first married father of four to do so. By the time next year's Wimbledon comes around Djokovic will also be a husband and a father and statistics have shown this decreases your likelihood of winning major titles. That being said, I am still confident that even though I expect it to be close (probably 4 sets) Federer will prevail.

MadProfessah's pick: Federer.

2014 WIMBLEDON: Kvitova Dominates Bouchard To Win 2nd Major Title

As I predicted yesterday, Petra Kvitova of the Czech Republic won her second major title by defeating Genie Bouchard in the 2014 Wimbledon final. However, what was unexpected was the lopsided nature of the match: 6-3 6-0 (the fewest amount of games lost by the champion since Steffi Graf beat Monica Seles in the Wimbledon final in 1992). Kvitova just dominated her opponent in all aspects of the game: 28 winners to just 12 unforced winners in 15 games played and winning 6 of 13 breakpoints while serving at 68%. Bouchard hit 8 winners to just 4 unforced winners but the outcome of the match was not really in her hands due to Kvitova's stellar performance.

Kvitova will now be ranked #4 in the World on Monday while Bouchard will be World #7. By winning her second major final, Kvitova joins others like Lindsay Davenport, Monica Seles and Jennifer Capriati who won their first two major finals played. Kvitova clearly plays her best tennis at Wimbledon: in the last 5 years she has won 2 titles here (reaching the quarterfinals or better) and lost two Serena Williams in 2010 and 2012 when the American won the title instead.

Interestingly, the toughest match that Kvitova had in the entire two weeks this year was her amazing 3-set match against 5-time Wimbledon champion Venus Williams where she won 5-7 7-7(5) 7-5. For Bouchard, this year in every last major tournament she has lost to the eventual winner, which is a very good sign for the 20-year old, especially considering she has only played six major tournaments in her career and just two years ago she won the Junior Wimbledon title.

It will be very interesting to see how the rest of their years will go. With something not right with Serena, there is an opening at the top of women's tennis right now. Will one of these players occupy the void?

2014 WIMBLEDON: Women's Final Preview

Eugenie Bouchard (CAN) [13] vs Petra Kvitova (CZE) [6]

The players for the 2014 Wimbledon women's final are set. 20-year-old Canadian Genie Bouchard will face 2011 Wimbledon champion Petra Kvitova, 24-year-old Czech lefty. Last year I incorrectly predicted that Sabine Lisicki would defeat Marion Bartoli.  This year I correctly predicted 1 of 2 women's semifinals, 2 of 4 women's quarterfinals, 2 of 2 men's semifinals, and 3 of 4 men's quarterfinals. Below is my preview and prediction post for the women's final.

WHAT HAPPENED: Women's Semifinal Review
Eugenie Bouchard (CAN) [13] d. Simona Halep (ROU) [3] 7-6(5) 6-2. Bouchard becomes the first Canadian woman to reach a major final by being incredibly aggressive on her return position, refusing to receive serve behind the baseline. At one point during the tournament her contact point on service return was 100% within the court. This brought her great success against the talented Halep who got up an early break but then immediately relinquished it. When they got to the tiebreak, Halep was leading 3-2 when play was delayed for 5 minutes to deal with an injured fan in the stands. Halep won the next point to take a 4-2 lead but then only won one other point to lose the breaker and the set. Then the fourth set was just a disaster for people like myself who expected the Romanian to rally, as Bouchard broke at will, running up a 5-2 double break lead and after some small wobbles on match point, the young Canadian was able to serve it out.

Petra Kvitova (CZE) [6] d. Lucie Safarova (CZE) [23] 7-6(6) 6-1. The two semifinals were eerily similar, with one break for each player in the first set followed by a nail-biter of a tiebreak. This was an excellent result for Safarova who had barely ever managed to hold pace with her countrywoman. She was able to reach 6-all in the tiebreak and simply played a bad point that allowed Kvitova to gain  a set point on her serve, which she won with a patented 1-2 play (serve out wide and then hit the return for a winner in to the open court). After that she opened her shoulders and just overpowered Safarova in the next set. Bizarrely, 3 of the 6 opponents that Kvitova beat to reach her 2nd Wimbledon final were fellow Czech players. I wonder if this will impact how they will view her on the Czech Fed Cup team?


WHAT WILL HAPPEN: Women's Final Preview

Eugenie Bouchard (CAN) [13] vs Petra Kvitova (CZE) [6]. The two have played once before, with Kvitova winning on the home turf of her opponent on the hard courts of Montreal last summer, 6-3 6-2 in 86 minutes. The match was much closer than the score indicates, with long points and multiple deuce games. This is good news for Bouchard because she has made a quantum leap since then, reaching 3 consecutive major semifinals, showing a resolve and consistency that her opponent here has really only shown once (in her 6-3 6-4 demolition of Maria Sharapova in 2011, where I was one of the rare people who predicted that result in advance.) That being said, Bouchard is 20-years-old and playing in her first major final. Few players win their first appearance in a major final, and there have been a lot of first time finalists in the last year: Halep lost in Paris, Dominika Cibulkova lost in Melbourne, Sabine Lisicki certainly did not do it in last year's Wimbledon final. Will Bouchard break this string? I think it is very possible that she will. It is fair to note here that Kvitova did do it in her first final, and it is clear that grass is her best surface at this point.

The match-up is interesting. Kvitova's lefty serving and go for broke power versus Bouchard's naked aggression and unbridled hungry, coupled with calmness under pressure. Bouchard has had her path to the final made much easier by Serena Williams upset by Alize Cornet and Angelique Kerbers clutch win over Sharapova. But there's no pressure like the pressure in a major final and Kvitova is more familiar with these moments. In fact, she was two points away from losing her 3rd round match against 5-time champion Venus Williams and came through that test with flying colors. Somehow I think she will repeat this feat tomorrow and win her 2nd major title. MadProfessah's pick: Kvitova.

Happy July 4th!

Happy 238th Birthday, America!

2014 WIMBLEDON: Men's Semifinals Preview

Here are my predictions for the men's quarterfinals at the Wimbledon Championships for 2014. Last year I correctly predicted 3 of 4 men's quarterfinals and correctly predicted 4 of 4 women's quarterfinals. This year I have so far correctly predicted 1 of 2 women's quarterfinals.

Novak Djokovic (SRB) [1] vs. Andy Murray (GBR) [3] Grigor Dimitrov (BUL) [11]. 

The #1 seed was surprisingly pushed to five sets by Marin Cilic in the quarterfinal. However, this should not really be disturbing to Novak fans since all three of the sets Novak won he had at least a 2-break lead. Djokovic is playing in his 16th major semifinal of the last 17 he has played (he lost in the 2014 Australian Open quarterfinal to Stan Wawrinka). Dimitrov is playing in his very first major semifinal and coming off the biggest win of his career in his straight-sets dismissal of the defending Wimbledon champion Andy Murray the round before. Djokovic leads Dimitrov 3-1 in their head-to-head, but the fact that the 23-year-old Bulgarian has a win over the #1 seed from last year means that he knows that it is possible to beat him. Djokovic has not won a major since the 2013 Australian Open despite reaching three major finals since then, so he is hungry to win his 7th major title. Dimitrov is hungry for his first major title and I am confident that he will win one eventually, but I find it very unlikely that it will be the 2014 Wimbledon championship. PREDICTION: Djokovic.

Roger Federer (SUI) [4] vs. 

Milos Raonic (CAN) [8]. These two have met four times and the 17-time major champion has won all four meetings, including one very tight meeting on grass in 2012. Raonic is playing in his very first major semifinal of his career while Federer is playing in his record thirty-fifth, and eighth at Wimbledon. He has never lost a Wimbledon semifinal. However, the Canadian is a very dangerous opponent with a gigantic serve and powerful forehand. But
Federer has a lot of experience playing against big serving and forehands before (c.f. Andy Roddick)  and has obviously had success in this situation.
Raonic is one of the next generation of ATP stars and he is widely expected to win majors in the future, but like his fellow youngster Dimitrov playing in his first major semifinal, I find it hard to believe that this is the tournament where the changing of the guard will happen. Instead, I expect (and hope) that Federer will be playing in his 25th major final, at the same place 2 years after he won his 17th title. PREDICTION: Federer.