Thursday, March 01, 2012

WI-SEN: Baldwin Showing Early Strength

Openly lesbian Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin (WI-02) is running for the open U.S. Senate seat to represent Wisconsin.  Baldwin is a strong fundraiser and has never lost an election, although a win in November would be an LGBT rights achievement of historic proportions, that achievement is appearing more likely with the release of recent polling data showing Baldwin ahead of all potential Republican challengers.

Public Policy Polling summarizes their recent results:
PPP finds that a match up between Tammy Baldwin and Tommy Thompson for the Senate in Wisconsin would be a toss up. Baldwin leads Thompson 46-45 in this month's poll, continuing a pattern of tight numbers in the contest.  When PPP last polled Wisconsin in October Thompson was ahead 46-44. This seems like a race that's likely to remain closely contested all throughout the year.
Voters are mixed on Baldwin as well, although she is not as well known. 31% see her favorably and 31% have a negative opinion. She is extremely polarizing with Democrats (54/10) pretty much all liking her and Republicans (3/57) all pretty much disliking her.
You see that same level of polarization in the head to head numbers between Baldwin and Thompson. Baldwin gets 87% of the Democratic vote, while Thompson gets 88% of the Republican vote. Thompson does have more crossover support, winning 9% of Democrats to Baldwin's 2% of Republicans.
Baldwin would be a nominal favorite against either of the other Republican Senate candidates. She leads Mark Neumann 47-41 and Jeff Fitzgerald 47-39. Neither Neumann (23/34) not Fitzgerald (19/38) has very good favorability ratings.
On Wednesday I blogged about the problems U.S. Representative David Cicilline is having in his re-election as an openly gay Congressman from Rhode Island so it is good to see the chances are at least slightly better than even there may be an openly lesbian member of the United States Senate in 2013!

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