Tuesday, October 16, 2012

3 Weeks Until Election: Obama 247, Romney 222

There has been a dramatic change in the TPM Electoral College Scoreboard from last week's tally of Obama's 294 to Romney's 191 (103 electoral vote lead for the Democrats) with things moving in the direction of the Red team.

With a mere 21 days before the election, this week the Blue team has a scant lead of 25 electoral votes, with the total of 247 being one of the few times the Obama-Biden team has been below 270 electoral votes. The Romney-Ryan team has a total of 222 electoral votes, which is their largest total since we started monitoring the electoral vote scoreboard in August.

The primary movement has been been from states which were in the Blue column moving into the Yellow column, namely Nevada (6 EVs), Ohio (18 EVs), New Hampshire (4 EVs), Iowa (6 EVs). Additionally, Florida (29 EVs)  moved from Yellow to the Red column, and and Virginia (13 EVs) moved from the Blue team to the Red team directly.

Last week there were only 3 states (Colorado, Florida and North Carolina) representing 53 electoral votes that were in the Undecided yellow column. This week there are an astonishing 7 states (Arizona, Nevada, Ohio, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Iowa and Colorado) that are in the Yellow Undecided/Toss-Up category totaling 69 electoral votes.

Basically the presidential race is tied with either result being not unthinkable result. This is pretty astonishing. There is still a lot of time left before the election, with 2 presidential debates (Tuesday October 16th and Monday October 22nd) still yet to happen.

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