The fundraising totals for the marriage equality campaigns in Maryland, Maine, Minnesota and Washington have been released in the last few weeks. Respectively, the campaigns have raised $3.2 million (MD), $3.4 million (ME), $8.2 million (MN) and $9.4 million (WA). Knowing the specific total amounts of money raised to fight the anti-gay ballot measures in each state is important, especially in states like Minnesota and Washington where these amounts are at least 4 times as much as the heterosexual supremacists have raised.
However, probably a more useful way to analyze the data is to look at the per capita amount of money raised by the campaigns, which is displayed by the following graphic:
Using the per capita numbers would seem to suggest Maine has the best chance of winning, with Maryland the least likely. This seems pretty consonant with what insiders (and my gut) is telling me. Basically, any result is possible at this point, from a sweep of 4 wins, to a devastating debacle of 4 losses.
Of course money is not the sole determinant of who will win these campaigns, but it is significant that after losing marriage equality ballot measures in 32 states, the last few (North Carolina 2012, Maine 2009 and California 2008) the forces for LGBT equality have consistently out-raised the heterosexual supremacists, though usually not by much. It will be important to see whether a huge financial advantage that is present in places like Maine and Washington will lead to victories there.
We'll know the answer in roughly three weeks!