US OPEN 2006: Women's Final Prediction

My semifinal prognostications ended up being 50% correct, with Henin-Hardenne matching my prediction, but Amélie Mauresmo disappointing me. In fact, the two people that I wanted to win both lost (Mauresmo and Jelena Jankovic). I'm very happy that I was wrong about that. Here is my preview and prediction of the 2006 US Open Women's Final:

Maria Sharapova RUS (3) vs. Justine Henin-Hardenne BEL (2). Henin-Hardenne has accomplished an astonishing feat by earning her fourth consecutive final of 2006, the first woman to do this since Martina Hingis almost achieved the calendar Grand Slam in 1997 (losing to Iva Majoli in the French Open final). She's already lost two of those finals this year to the soon-to-be-former World #1 Amélie Mauresmo and definitely does not want to lose a third.

However, Sharapova is finally in her second Grand Slam final after losing in five consecutive Grand Slam semifinals and has no intention of losing either. Although one would usually give the mental edge to the veteran in such a situation, this is Maria "I feel pretty" Sharapova we are talking about. She is the female version of Rafael Nadal or Lleyton Hewitt when it comes to mental toughness and intensity of concentration. This match will be decided between the lines, not between their ears. John McEnroe likes to call Henin-Hardenne "the Roger Federer of the women's game" so in some sense the Women's final is the Federer-Nadal final that everyone was expecting to see (but will instead get a Federer-Roddick final instead).

Since I am a huge Roger Federer fan readers of this blog will be surprised to read that I want the "female Nadal" (i.e. Sharapova) to win the match instead of the "female Federer." First, I reject Mcenroe's characterization of Henin-Hardenne as Federer-like because of their diametrically opposite off-tennis behavior and personalities. Federer is well-liked, appreciated by colleagues, fans and the press and a great public ambassador for tennis. Henin-Hardenne's generosity of spirit is as large as her diminutive stature.

However, if the tennis is what really will decide this match and not merely desire, I still think Sharapova has the edge. Sharpova has the better serve, better consistency and power on ground strokes. Where the Belgian has the edge is with movement, with net play and with variety of shots. But as both Jankovic showed today, when Henin-Hardenne is giving you point after point with double faults and you know how to smack the ball around, you can outhit and outlast her. I suspect Sharapova will get a tape of today's semifinal with Jankovic and apply some of the lessons learned in tomorrow's final.

WHO I THINK WILL WIN: Sharapova (in 3 sets).
WHO I WANT TO WIN: Sharapova.