Obama and Clinton Possibly Tied In California Poll

The latest Rasmussen Reports poll has Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton within the margin of error of each other in California, with 43% support for the former first lady and 40% for the junior Senator from Illinois. The poll was taken after Florida's primary which Clinton won but before John Edwards dropped out of the race and has a margin of error of +/- 4 points.

I Voted For (and Donated $100 To) Barack Obama Today

Today I received the following email in my inbox:

Ron --
I have some news for you today.
In the hours before Iowans went to their local caucuses four weeks ago, the 500,000th person donated to our campaign.

It took us nearly a year to grow that unprecedented base of individual donors. We rejected donations from Washington lobbyists and special interest PACs and relied on ordinary people to take ownership of this campaign -- and the result was more donors than any presidential primary campaign has had in history.

Here's the news today: so far in January alone, more than 224,000 people have given to this campaign.

If we can reach 250,000 donors for January by midnight tonight, it will show the undeniable strength and incredible momentum of our grassroots movement.
You were part of the nearly 500,000 people who gave to our campaign in 2007 and got us this far. If you give today, another supporter like you will match your donation.

Make your first donation of 2008 now:
https://donate.barackobama.com/match

These 224,000 people are giving whatever they can afford -- more than ninety percent of our donors this year have given $100 or less.
But what's even more inspiring is that they are also making phone calls, knocking on doors, planning local events, and even serving as Precinct Captains in the 22 states that will vote on Tuesday.

These are not just donors -- they are organizers doing the kind of local, grassroots organizing that is the foundation of real change. Together we are seizing this moment to upend the tired politics of the past and usher in a new era of active citizenship in our party and in our democracy.

From our historic victory in Iowa in the first days of 2008 through our resounding win in South Carolina last Saturday, January has been the most critical time of the campaign so far.

Hitting this goal of 250,000 donors will close out this historic month. And the fresh momentum and energy will carry us through the 22 state contests on February 5th and beyond.

This is an incredible moment, and I hope you will take time now to help reach this goal:

https://donate.barackobama.com/match

Thank you for being part of this,
Barack

I have previously donated to Barack and finally decided to endorse him in December. I was moved by this email to donate again, and have filled out my vote-by-mail ballot for Barack Obama. I urge you to do so as well!

Test Your Gaydar!

Pam's House Blend is running a Gaydar Test in light of a recently published study which says that most people can identify correctly the sexual orientation of an individual 70 percent of the time after viewing a picture for 100 milliseconds.

Which of the two individuals above is gay? Mad Professah picked the guy on the right. Pam will give us the answer next week.

Edwards (and Giuliani) Quitting Presidential Race

CNN and The New York Times are reporting that John Edwards is going to drop out of the Presidental race today, and not endorse either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama. The 2004 Vice Presidential nominee has not won a single primary contest, and his best finish was second in the kick-off Iowa caucuses. Edwards is set to give a speech in Louisiana today, the same place he kicked off his presidential bid well over a year ago. Still, it's surprising that he is dropping out before "Super Duper Tuesday" on February 5th when millions of Democratic voters have the opportunity to make their voices heard in the Presidential campaign. In fact, in California, I know that many people have already voted (by mail-in absentee ballot), and some of them have said they have voted for Edwards.

In other news, Rudy Giuliani (or 9iu11iani as DailyKos likes to call him) is dropping out of the race and endorsing John McCain, who won winner-takes-all the Florida primary ahead of Mitt Romney 36% to 31% wiht 9iu11iani a distant 3rd at 15%.

Eye Candy: Ramirez Allender

Hat tip to The Boy.

Toni Morrison Publicly Endorses Obama

African American female Nobel laureate Toni Morrison ("Beloved","Song of Solomon" and others) has written an eloquent public letter endorsing Barack Obama for President:

Dear Senator Obama,

This letter represents a first for me--a public endorsement of a Presidential candidate. I feel driven to let you know why I am writing it. One reason is it may help gather other supporters; another is that this is one of those singular moments that nations ignore at their peril. I will not rehearse the multiple crises facing us, but of one thing I am certain: this opportunity for a national evolution (even revolution) will not come again soon, and I am convinced you are the person to capture it.

May I describe to you my thoughts?

I have admired Senator Clinton for years. Her knowledge always seemed to me exhaustive; her negotiation of politics expert. However I am more compelled by the quality of mind (as far as I can measure it) of a candidate. I cared little for her gender as a source of my admiration, and the little I did care was based on the fact that no liberal woman has ever ruled in America. Only conservative or "new-centrist" ones are allowed into that realm. Nor do I care very much for your race[s]. I would not support you if that was all you had to offer or because it might make me "proud."

In thinking carefully about the strengths of the candidates, I stunned myself when I came to the following conclusion: that in addition to keen intelligence, integrity and a rare authenticity, you exhibit something that has nothing to do with age, experience, race or gender and something I don't see in other candidates. That something is a creative imagination which coupled with brilliance equals wisdom. It is too bad if we associate it only with gray hair and old age. Or if we call searing vision naivete. Or if we believe cunning is insight. Or if we settle for finessing cures tailored for each ravaged tree in the forest while ignoring the poisonous landscape that feeds and surrounds it. Wisdom is a gift; you can't train for it, inherit it, learn it in a class, or earn it in the workplace--that access can foster the acquisition of knowledge, but not wisdom.

When, I wondered, was the last time this country was guided by such a leader? Someone whose moral center was un-embargoed? Someone with courage instead of mere ambition? Someone who truly thinks of his country's citizens as "we," not "they"? Someone who understands what it will take to help America realize the virtues it fancies about itself, what it desperately needs to become in the world?

Our future is ripe, outrageously rich in its possibilities. Yet unleashing the glory of that future will require a difficult labor, and some may be so frightened of its birth they will refuse to abandon their nostalgia for the womb.

There have been a few prescient leaders in our past, but you are the man for this time.

Good luck to you and to us.

Toni Morrison

Wow.

MOVIE REVIEW: Michael Clayton

George Clooney's Michael Clayton was one of the last movies we saw at the end of the year before going off to Northern Italy for two weeks.

Clooney plays a lawyer who has been at a big New York City corporate law firm for years but instead of being a partner he has turned into something more valuable: a fixer of embarassing problems. When his friend Arthur, who happens to be the smartest lawyer at the firm and their lead attorney in a $3 billion dollar product liability lawsuit, stops taking his anti-psychotic medication and has a spectacular mental breakdown in camera during a deposition, Clooney is called in to fix the mess.


Tilda Swinton and Tom Wilkinson and Sydney Pollack have important supporting roles and are all excellent, with Wilkinson (as usual) the standout as Clooney's friend Arthur. Both he and Swinton have both been rewarded with Oscar nominations (along with Clooney).

The plot is a bit involved, but the film is more about the choices people will make: career versus family, good versus evil and personal loyalty versus professional duty. This movie attacks head on the notion the idea that when a superior says "Just get it done" what that may entail for the poor schmucks who have to carry out the marching orders. And it exposes to what depths those underlings will go to achieve their bosses' wishes, in a number of different settings: but primarily in corporate law. Writer-director Tony Gilroy (who was nominated in both capacities) enacts a taut script in an understated but very effective way which doesn't leave an immediately overwhelmingly positive impression, but is deep enough to cause one to assess upwards the impact the film has had, days and weeks later.

GRADE: A-.

JFK's Brother and Daughter Endorse Obama

Brendan Smialowski for The New York Times

The political world is buzzing with the news that both the brother and daughter of the most sacred former Democratic President, John F. Kennedy, have endorsed Barack Obama for president. Senator Ted Kennedy is pictured above at a rally with Senator Obama in Washington, D.C.

In Sunday's edition of the New York Times Caroline Kennedy wrote an op-ed "A President Like My Father" in which she said:

Senator Obama is running a dignified and honest campaign. He has spoken eloquently about the role of faith in his life, and opened a window into his character in two compelling books. And when it comes to judgment, Barack Obama made the right call on the most important issue of our time by opposing the war in Iraq from the beginning.

I want a president who understands that his responsibility is to articulate a vision and encourage others to achieve it; who holds himself, and those around him, to the highest ethical standards; who appeals to the hopes of those who still believe in the American Dream, and those around the world who still believe in the American ideal; and who can lift our spirits, and make us believe again that our country needs every one of us to get involved.

I have never had a president who inspired me the way people tell me that my father inspired them. But for the first time, I believe I have found the man who could be that president — not just for me, but for a new generation of Americans.

On Tuesday February 5th millions of Americans will have the opportunity to vote for a president who can change America forever: Barack Obama.

Eye Candy

I haven't checked out gay blog Queerty for a while but I did recently and particularly enjoyed this shot of model Nick Manzoni as part of their "Morning Goods" segment where they basically have multiple semi-nude images of an incredibly hot guy every week day. Why? Why Not?

AUSTRALIAN OPEN 2008: Djokovic wins 1st major

Novak Djokovic has defeated Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 4-6 6-4 6-3 7-6(2) to win his first Grand Slam title, the 2008 Australian Open.

AUSTRALIAN OPEN 2008: Men's Final Preview

Novak Djokovic SRB (3) versus Jo-Wilfried Tsonga FRA.

After youngsters Novak Djokovic (20) and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (22) each had the biggest wins of their careers, they are competing against each other in the Australian Open Men's final Sunday night in Melbourne. Djokovic defeated World #1 and 12-time Grand Slam champion Roger Federer in straight sets in the second semifinal while Jo-Wilfried Tsonga demolished World #2 and 3-time French Open champion Rafael Nadal in the first semifinal. In the final we will see what happens when an unstoppable force faces an unmoveable object.

I'd like to think that although a Grand Slam title means more to Tsonga, there will actually be more pressure on Djokovic, because he is the World #3 (Tsonga is unseeded!) and the heir apparent to Federer. The two have never face each other before, so this is a again a "case of first impression." If Tsonga can play as well as he played against Nadal, he should win the first set easily while Djokovic tries to figure out how to handle his game and Tsonga is still far away enough from the actual win to become nervous.

Once Djokovic does start playing his best it will be interesting to see if Tsonga can maintain his brilliant serving and jaw-dropping volleying. If so, Tsonga can make history as the first Black male Grand Slam champion since Arthur Ashe in1975.

PREDICTION: Tsonga, in 4 sets.

AUSTRALIAN OPEN 2008: Sharapova wins 3rd major

In Melbourne Saturday night, Maria Sharapova defeated new World #2 Ana Ivanovic 7-5 6-3 to win her 3rd major title following her previous victories at Wimbledon in 2004 and the U.S.Open in 2006. Sharapova did not lose a single set (a total of 32 games in 7 matches) in this year's tournament after being thrashed in last year's Austalian Open final by Serena Williams 6-1 6-2. Ivanovic did not play her best tennis, but was still too points away from winning the 1st set at 4-5, 0-30 on Sharapova's serve when the young Serbian attempted a drop shot which landed at the bottom of the net. Sharapova recovered to hold her serve and even the match at 5-5 and went on to break her opponent for the second time and then served out the 49-minute set at love. The second set was close until Sharapova broke to go up 4-3 and Ivanovic panicked and soon lost the match and her second Grand Slam final.

Ding Dong The Witch Is Dead

In California, prison health care advocates woke up with a smile to discover their long nightmare was over: Robert Sillen has been fired.

From the Los Angeles Times story:

A federal judge Wednesday abruptly fired the man he had appointed to fix the multimillion-dollar problems of medical care in the state's prisons, after determining the effort was moving too slowly and in too confrontational a manner.

[...]

Since taking the post, formally known as the receiver, Sillen has dramatically increased state spending on prison medical care, largely by bringing salaries up to market levels. Sillen added about $300 million a year and sought to add another $500 million in next year's budget. In addition, he requested more than $800 million for new construction over several years and was working on a $3-billion plan for 5,000 long-term medical beds, state officials said.

But he also frequently clashed with others in his orbit. He jousted with lawmakers and froze out lawyers for inmates. He suggested he should also control the hiring of prison guards, and he blasted the $7.7-billion prison reform package approved by the Legislature last year as a bad idea.

Henderson praised some aspects of Sillen's tenure, saying he had "successfully used his unique skills and bold, creative leadership style to investigate, confront and break down many of the barriers that existed at the inception of the receivership."

But his order removing Sillen also expressed frustration with the pace of progress and implicitly criticized Sillen's uncompromising attitude. The job now needs "a collaborative style of leadership," the judge wrote.

Ouch!

AUSTRALIAN OPEN 2008: The King Is Dead! Long Live The King!

Novak Djokovic ended Roger Federer's winning streak in Melbourne last night by defeating the 12-time Grand Slam champion 7-5, 6-3, 7-6(5) in the semifinal, meaning that MadProfessah's predictions in both Men's semifinals were incorrect, and that the World #3 from Serbia has realized his potential as the new heir apparent to the soon-to-be-named Greatest Of All Time. He will now be in his second consecutive Grand Slam final, starting his streak, and ended Federer's streak of consecutive major finals at a record 10 (eight of which he won). The twenty-year-old, (6 foot 2 inch, 176 pounds) Djokovic is now the youngest player ever to reach all four grand slam semifinals in a career, something the current Greatest Ever (14-time Grand Slam champ) Pete Sampras never achieved.

Djokovic will face French-Congolese wunderkind Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the men's final on Ssunday night. Hat tip to Towleroad who has posted shirtless pictures of both Tsonga and many more of Djokovic on the premium blog for gay men.

It will be interesting to see how this development will complicate Roger Federer's quest to exceed Sampras record of 14 major titles. Mad Professah has already predicted that it will not occur until Wimbledon 2009. I also think Federer will win the French Open before he retires.

Al Gore Endorses Marriage Equality

AUSTRALIAN OPEN 2008: Women's Final Preview

Maria Sharapova RUS (5) versus Ana Ivanovic SRB (4).

After being humiliated by Serena Williams at the 2007 Australian Open women's final and failing to win more than a single title all year (Acura Classic) Maria Sharapova clearly showed up in Melbourne with a mission to win her first Australian Open title. Despite having a relatively difficult draw (dangerous floater Lindsay Davenport in round 2, #11 seed Elena Dementieva, #3 seed Jelena Jankovic and World #1 and #1 seed Justine Henin) Sharapova has reached the final for the second consecutive year without losing a set. Ana Ivanovic confirmed her status as the (higher ranked and) superior of the "Serbian sisters" by achieving her second Grand Slam final before her compatriot Jankovic has been in a single one. Even in their interesting quarterfinal match-ups of the Williams sisters versus Serbia, Ivanovic won her match more convincingly over much stiffer resistance. And then came Ivanovic's disastrous start of her semifinal match against Daniela Hantuchova where she lost the first 8 games in 45 minutes but somehow managed to reverse the momentum and win the match 0-6 6-3 6-4.

However, Ivanovic will need to not only be better than Jankovic, she will need to be playing at the level to beat a Williams sister in order to deny Maria Sharapova's her 3rd major title. It's unlikely, but not unthinkable that this coulld happen, but at least it would make for some delightful tennis to watch, which is what I really expect to see happen.

PREDICTION: Sharapova, in 3 sets.

Tsonga Tsunami Sweeps Nadal

Despite MadProfessah's predictions yesterday, Frenchman Jo-Wilfried Tsonga defeated World #2 Rafael Nadal easily to reach his first Australian Open final. The score was 6-2 6-3 6-2 but the match was not even that close. Tsonga did not even face a break point until the third set and Nadal went 0 for 3 for the match while J-W was 5 for 7 in that category including a break of Rafa's very first service game(!) followed by a love hold by the Frenchman. Tsongas had 49 (+22) winners to Nadal's 13 (+1) including 27 aces (one of which was nearly 138 miles per hour).

Tsonga is projected to rise from his current 38 to (atleast) #27 on the new world rankings on Monday. He becomes the first Black man to be in a Grand Slam final since MaliVai Washington lost to Richard Krajicek in the 1996 Wimbledon final.

He becomes the first player to reach his first ATP final at a Grand Slam event since Gustavo Kuerten did at the French Open in 1997, and we all know what happened after that. (Kuerten went on to win at Roland Garros three times.) He plays either World #3 Novak Djokovic or World #1 Roger Federer in the final.

Hail In L.A. (Dude, What Happened Last Night?)

I did hear a tremendous racket last night but was too groggy/sleepy to figure out what it was ("Wow, that rain is coming down hard," I thought) and went back to sleep. When I went outside to pick up the morning paper I caught these pictures of hail outside my home in northeast Los

Angeles (less than 5 miles from downtown L.A.).

AUSTRALIAN OPEN 2008: Men's Semifinals

MadProfessah previewed the 2008 Australian Open Men's quarterfinals a few days ago.

Roger Federer SUI (1) versus Novak Djokovic SRB (3). This mouthwatering match is a reprise of the 2007 U.S. Open final which somehow Federer won in straight sets despite being outplayed by the Serbian youngster for the first two. I predicted that David Ferrer would continue his scintillating play from the end of last year and stop Djokovic, whose personality and demeanor I'm not a fan of, but whose games never fails to impress. Instead, Djokovic stuffed a pastele in the mouth of Ferrer and dispatched him in straight sets 6-0, 6-3, 7-5. Much has been made of Federer's near-death experience with a far less heralded Serbian player Janko Tipsarevic who, on a Federer off-night, took Federer to 5 sets and nearly sent him packing from the tournament in the 3rd round. However, Federer is well aware that Djokovic is his heir apparent and looks forward to the task of demonstrating that "he's not dead, yet." After a comfortable evening workout of excellent tennis against his personal manservant James Blake where the Swiss World #1 improved his career lifetime record over the American to 8-0 and insured he would reach his record 15th conscutive Grand Slam semifinal and 209th consecutive week at #1. It's true that the only time Federer has lost in Melbourne in the last 5 years was in the 2005 semifinals to Marat Safin--and he was up match point and lost in 5 sets. I suspect Federer will want to send a distinct message to Novak and the rest of the young guns and raise his intensity a notch. Djokovic has not lost a set in his path to the semifinals and if he can find another gear he may be able to show Federer that youth is always served, in the end. PREDICTION: Federer, in four sets.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga FRA vs. Rafael Nadal ESP (2). Tsonga is the great story of the 2008 Australian Open. He is an unseeded player who has made it as far as the final 4 players and is within one match of a historic Grand Slam final. Just by being in the semi-final, Tsonga makes history as the first Black male player to be in the semi-final of a major since American MaliVai Washington did it at Wimbledon in 1996.

Tsonga dispatched the very hot (in multiple senses of the word) Mikhail Youzhny in straight sets in the quarterfinals while Nadal took out fellow leftie Jarkki Nieminen pretty easily. The two have played each other only once (fairly recently) in the 3rd round of the 2007 US Open, and Nadal won fairly easily 7-6(3) 6-2 6-1. Since Tsonga was not overwhelmed by making his first Grand Slam quarterfinal somehow I don't think he'll be overwhelmed by his first major semi and so the match may be decided by what happens on court instead of what's happening inside smoeone's head. This is a good thing. Does Tsonga have the game to defeat Nadal? Definitely. Will he? It's doubtful. All the intangibles go the Spaniard's way. Nadal usually has a problem with people who hit very flat, very hard, limited spin strokes on both wings, like a Blake, a Youzhny or last year's finalist Fernando Gonzalez. PREDICTION: Nadal, in five sets.

AUSTRALIAN OPEN 2008: Women's Semifinals

The 2008 Australian Open Women's semifinals are now set. Unfortunately, Mad Professah incorrectly predicted 3 of the 4 women's quarterfinal match results. This was mainly due to two shockingly disappointing performances by Venus and Serena Williams. The following post serves as both a Women's Quarterfinal review and Women's Semifinals preview.

Maria Sharapova RUS (5) vs. Jelena Jankovic SRB (3) Serena Williams USA (7). Although I did not predict this result I am not disappointed to see it. You can put me in the "Anybody but Henin" crowd. However, I hope that Jankovic doesn't think that it was defending champion Serena Williams that she beat in the quarterfinal on Tuesday. The imposter who called herself Serena couldn't get her serve over 100 mph for most of the match, was clearly limping and not reacting to the ball's location or movement. Regardless, she did well to win the match and possesses formidable skills of her own. Sharapova's dismantling of the current World #1 player in the world, which included a bagel stuffed down the throat of the powerful, diminutive Belgian was a delight to behold. Only an in-form Williams Sister could have handled and probably overcome that onslaught, but sadly noe of those are left in the tournament, and it'sdoubtful any of themshowed up to play in Melbourne this year. Interestingly, Sharapova and Jankovic have only played four times in their career, but only once in 2007, which is the only match of the four that Jankovic has won, a close 3-setter on grass. Instead of the fourth consecutive grudgefest at major tournament between Justine Henin and Serena Williams that I predicted would occur, this top half of the draw produces a sparkling opportunity for an excellent match-up between power and finesse. Typically, in such a match-up I tend to go with power (which is why I am a fan of and predict wins for, the Williams Sisters). However, Jankovic is a great mover and thinker on the court; she will not be overwhelmed by her second major Grand Slam semifinal. Jankovic has the game and the weapons to make it close, but if the Sharapova who beat Henin shows up to play then the results will not be in Jelena's hands, but Maria's. PREDICTION: Sharapova in 3 sets.

Venus Williams USA (12) Ana Ivanovic SRB (4) vs. Daniela Hantuchova SVK (9). The bottom half of the draw was left tantalizingly wide-open with the early exit of the mentally fragile Svetlana Kuznetsova. Especially since she was playing someone who she had never lost to in her quartfinal, Venus Williams looked like a shoo-in to her second Australian Open final. Unfortunately, the Ana Ivanovic she met was not the same player Venus beat in two consecutive Grand Slam tournaments last year. This Ivanovic had no fear of the net, was blasting winners from every part of the court, deep into the corner and with extreme pace. And she demonstrated excellent defensive retrieving skills. There was really not much Venus could have done, even if she had been playing at 100%, which she clearly wasn't. Hantuchova easily dispatched Aggie Radwanska and will be playing in her first Grand Slam semifinal. Last year Hantuchova and Ivanovic played 3 times last year on 3 different surfaces, with the Slovak winning on grass, while the Serbian won the next two matches on carpet and indoor hardcourts. Ivanovic has clearly now reached the top of Womens' Tennis and is comfortable with her position.

Hantuchova on the other hand took 5 years to win her second WTA Tour title after winning her first as a precocious teenager over Hingis in 2002. She is well-known as an excellent ball-striker and part of the vanguard of "Big Babe" tennis so famously coined by ESPN commentator Mary Carillo. Although, it's really hard to describe Hantuchova as "big" she's mostly lanky. She is also known as an extremely emotional, nervous player. It is very likely she will be overwhelmed by the occasion of finally reaching her first major semifinal and if the new Ana Ivanovic is here to stay, then there will be at least one Serbian in the Australian Open final on Saturday. PREDICTION: Ivanovic in 2 sets.

Williams Sisters Lose 3 Consecutive Matches

In a 24 hour period Serena Williams lost to Jelena Jankovic 6-3 6-4, Venus Williams lost to Ana Ivanovic 7-6(3) 6-4 and together they lost in doubles 3-6, 6-4, 6-2. Tragic!

2008 OSCARS: Nominations Announced

Two days ago I posted my predictions for the 2008 Oscar nominations. This year I did pretty well, with 31/40, or 77.5% accuracy rate in the Top Eight categories. Last year I got 29/40 or 72.5% correct. These are both down from my stunning 36/40 accuracy rate in 2006. At least MadProfessah's three year average is 32/40 or 4/5 correct per category, which is better than your average Oscar prognosticator.

Best Picture

Atonement, Juno,

Michael Clayton, No Country For Old Men, There Will Be Blood.
MadProfessah's predictions: 5/5.

Take that, b*tches! *grin* I've seen all the nominees (3 of the 5 in the last few days), reviews will be following in the next few weeks. I'm very happy that Into The Wild was not nominated, and I do intend to see The Diving Bell and the Butterfly soon.

Best Director

• Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
• Ethan and Joel Coen, No Country For Old Men
• Sean Penn, Into The Wild Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
• Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
• Joe Wright, Atonement Jason Reitman, Juno

MadProfessah's predictions: 3/5.
The Academy usually loves to nominate actors as directors and Into The Wild had outstanding critical and guild acclaim. I do think it sucked. I tried to watch it three times (for free!) during my flight in business class from LAX to Frankfurt and I kept on switching back to Ratatouille. Having seen Atonement, I do think that Joe Wright should have been nominated. The Director's Guild list and the Academy's list usually varies by just one nominee but this time it varies by two. Jason Reitman, the director of Juno is just 30 years old and Juno is a comedy which usually gets no Oscar love.

Best Actress

• Julie Christie, Away From Her
• Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
• Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden Age
• Keira Knightley Atonement Laura Linney, The Savages
• Ellen Page, Juno

MadProfessah's predictions: 3/5.
Oooooh, Angelina got snubbed! I'm *shocked*, but not upset, that Cate got nominated for Elizabeth. The Academy loves her. She becomes one of the rare actors to be nominated twice in the same year, although she may suffer Sigourney Weaver's fate and lose both nominations. The movie was not as well done as the first Elizabeth. The other surprising nominee is Laura Linney, who often does excellent work but the actors who are also in huge box-office hits and critically acclaimed dramas in the same year often get rewarded, and of course Keira Knightley was in the Pirates of the Caribbean movies. This time this was not enough to keep her slot. I thought that perhaps Amy Adams would get a nod for Enchanted.

Best Actor

• George Clooney, Michael Clayton
• Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
• Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd
• Emile Hirsch, Into The Wild Tommy Lee Jones, In The Valley of Elah
• Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises

MadProfessah's predictions: 4/5.
I thought the last slot would go to Denzel Washington for American Gangster or possibly Russell Crowe for either American Gangster or 3:10 to Yuma. However, Tommy Lee Jones was universally acclaimed for Paul Haggis' Iraq war film, his first movie after winning Oscars for Crash and Million Dollar Baby but NOBODY saw In the Valley of Elah when it was released in September.

Best Supporting Actress

• Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
• Ruby Dee, American Gangster
• Jennifer Garner, Juno Saoirse Ronan, Atonement
• Amy Ryan, Gone, Baby, Gone
• Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton

MadProfessah's predictions: 4/5.
Jennifer Garner's nomination for Juno was just wishful thinking on my part, but if you really really like that movie (as I did), you have to come away thinking how excellent the supporting members of the cast were. However, Saoirse Ronan is astonihingly effective as the precocious child in Atonement who unknowingly sets the tragic events of the film in motion. She is the perfect embodiment of Briony, the character at the heart of Ian McEwan's novel. Ruby Dee becomes the only black actor nominated this year.

Best Supporting Actor

• Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
• Javier Bardem, No Country For Old Men
• Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson's War
• Hal Holbrook, Into The Wild
• J.K. Simmons, Juno Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton

MadProfessah's predictions: 4/5.
Again, I'm not mad at all that Tom Wilkinson took a slot from what could have been recognition for Juno's stellar cast. He is astonishing as the animating force in Michael Clayton, in fact he is good in everything that he appears in. But no one but Javier Bardem is going home with this Oscar.

Best Original Screenplay

• Judd Apatow, Knocked Up Nancy Oliver, Lars and the Real Girl
• Brad Bird, Ratatouille
• Diablo Cody, Juno
• Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
• Tamara Jenkins, The Savages

MadProfessah's predictions: 4/5.
This is always the most interesting category to pick and one of the most important. The writers started with a blank sheet of paper (or computer screen) and from their imagination alone, created characters and situations which inspired filmmakers to put those visions on the screen. Why the rest of Hollywood can't understand this and settle the damned writers' strike so that there is a real Oscars on February 24.

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
• Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country For Old Men
• Christopher Hampton, Atonement
• Ronald Harwood, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
• Steven Zaillian, American Gangster Sarah Polley, Away From Her

MadProfessah's predictions: 4/5.
I am pretty suprised that American Gangster could not get ANY love from the Academy (except for Ruby Dee's acting nod). I should have realized that since the Academy loves to nominate actors in other categories, they might have picked Sean Penn's script for Into The Wild but instead the actor they went with was Canadian Sarah Polley. This will be a tough category. The Coen Brothers (Fargo) and Cristopher Hampton (Dangerous Liaisons) have won this award before, which is the typical consolation prize if you're not winning the bigger prizes of Picture and/or Director. That may give Harwood the edge since it's unlikely his film will win in any other major category.

Total Nominations

1. No Country for Old Men, 8
2. There Will Be Blood, 6 EIGHT
3. Atonement, 6 SEVEN
4. Juno, 5 FOUR
5. Michael Clayton, 5 SEVEN
6. The Diving Bell and the Butterfly FOUR
   

AUSTRALIAN OPEN 2008: Men's Quarterfinals PREVIEW

The 2008 Australian Open Men's Quarterfinals have now been set.

Roger Federer SUI (1) vs James Blake USA (12).
Both Roger Federer and James Blake have had near-death experiences in earlier 5-set matches during this tournament. Of course, that is a more unusual experience for the World #1 than the previously slumping American. In the third round, Federer won one of the best matches of the tournament (and probably the year) against unseeded Serbian Janko Tipsarevic 6-7(5) 7-6(1) 5-7 6-1 10-8, with both players hitting more winners than errors (96 to 64 for Federer, 52 to 47 for Tipsaveric) and the Swiss player hitting the most aces he has ever had in an ATP match: 39 (to Tipsarevic's 14). A few hours before the Federer fireworks Blake improved his horrendous lifetime 5-set record to 2 and 10 after coming back from 2 sets down (and 1-4 in the 4th set tiebreak) to defeat veteran Frenchman Sebastian Grosjean 4-6, 2-6, 6-0, 7-6(5), 6-2. They both easily won their next round matches. Federer and Blake have played 22 sets of tennis against each other and Federer has won 21 (the one set Blake won, at the 2006 US Open quarterfinals, was a 13-11 3rd set tiebreaker). I do believe that Blake's comeback signals a newfound toughness in the American. He, like Tipsarevic, has the game to beat the Greatest Of All Time 12-time Grand Slam champion on a hard court, but unlike the Serbian, Blake doesn't really believe deep inside that he can win this match, and he won't.
Mad Professah's Pick: Federer in 4 sets.

Novak Djokovic SRB (3) vs David Ferrer ESP (5).
Spaniard David Ferrer made a believer (and admirer) out of me when he had his breakthrough at the season-ending ATP Masters Cup in Shanghai last year, losing to the final against Federer after defeating World #3 Novak Djokovic, World #2 Rafael Nadal (twice!) and Richard Gasquet. Ferrer is now the World #5 but Djokovic has been firmly ensconced in the #3 position for nearly a year after his break-out hardcourt season in early 2007 during Federer's post-Australian Open lapse. Although Ferrer leads the Serbian head-to-head 3-2, the two have never really played a very close (or high quality) match. Ferrer did not play up to his potential in their last Grand Slam meeting, at the 2007 U.S. Open semifinals (Ferrer's first major semifinal) which was played after he had outlasted his compatriot Nadal two nights before. Djokovic hasn't really been tested at this year's Australian Open championship and I suspect that Ferrer may be a tad hungrier, plus I'm just not a fan of the Djokester. Mad Professah's pick: Ferrer in 5 sets.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga FRA vs Mikhail Youzhny RUS (14).

The unseeded Frenchman is finially living up to his tremendous potential, finally reaching his first Grand Slam quarterfinal. The Russian Youzhny has been playing excellent tennis recently and has already won a title (0ver Nadal) this year. They both had to get through emotionally meaningful matches by defeating higher ranked countrymen to reach this point in the tournament. Tsonga defeated Gasquet and Youzhny defeated World #4 Nikolay Davydenko. Interestingly, these two have never played against each other before, so this is what is called in legal circles, "a case of first impression." I would really just like to say that this match is a toss-up, but since that really is a wimpy prognostication, I will go with the more experienced player to make his second career Grand Slam semifinal. Mad Professah's pick: Youzhny in 4 sets.

Jarkko Nieminen FIN (24) vs Rafael Nadal ESP (2).
One would think that since left-handers often have extreme difficulty playing against each other the wily, veteran Finnish left-hander would give the muscular, young Spanish left-hander more difficulty but the results do not support this belief. Their three previous matches have been all one-sided affairs with Nadal prevailing relatively easily. I suspect this match may be a bit closer than people expect, since Nadal is clearly not at his physical best in this tournament. Nieminen really should have lost his 4th round match against Roddick-killer Phillip Kohschreiber and he often does find a way to win matches he should lose. The two have not played since Nadal beat Nieminen in the 2006 Wimbledon Quarterfinals so there's a (slight) possibility of an upset. Mad Professah's pick: Nadal in 3 sets.

2008 Oscars: Nominations Predictions

Tomorrow On Monday January 21 Tuesday January 22 the 80th Academy Award nominations will be announced for films released in 2007. The Golden Globe awards were announced on Sunday January 13th at a WGA strike-influenced press conference. Here are my predictions (WILL WIN), together with my druthers (SHOULD WIN) for the best achievements in film for 2007. In previous years, Mad Professah has done pretty well in predicting both nominations and wins.

Best Picture

Atonement, Juno, Michael Clayton, No Country For Old Men, There Will Be Blood.
SHOULD WIN: Juno
WILL WIN: There Will Be Blood

Best Director

• Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
• Ethan and Joel Coen, No Country For Old Men
• Sean Penn, Into The Wild
• Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
• Joe Wright, Atonement

SHOULD WIN: Ethan and Joel Coen, No Country For Old Men
WILL WIN: Ethan and Joel Coen, No Country For Old Men

Best Actress

• Julie Christie, Away From Her
• Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
• Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart
• Keira Knightley Atonement
• Ellen Page, Juno
  

SHOULD WIN: Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
WILL WIN: Ellen Page, Juno

Best Actor

• George Clooney, Michael Clayton
• Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
• Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd
• Emile hirsh, Into The Wild
• Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises

SHOULD WIN: Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
WILL WIN: Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd

Best Supporting Actress

• Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
• Ruby Dee, American Gangster
• Jennifer Garner, Juno
• Amy Ryan, Gone, Baby, Gone
• Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton

SHOULD WIN: Jennifer Garner, Juno
WILL WIN: Amy Ryan, Gone, Baby, Gone

Best Supporting Actor

• Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
• Javier Bardem, No Country For Old Men
• Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson's War
• Hal Holbrook, Into The Wild
• J.K. Simmons, Juno

SHOULD WIN: Javier Bardem, No Country For Old Men
WILL WIN: Javier Bardem, No Country For Old Men

Best Original Screenplay

• Judd Apatow, Knocked Up
• Brad Bird, Ratatouille
• Diablo Cody, Juno
• Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
• Tamara Jenkins, The Savages

SHOULD WIN: Diablo Cody, Juno
WILL WIN: Diablo Cody, Juno

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
• Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country For Old Men
• Christopher Hampton, Atonement
• Ronald Harwood, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
• Steven Zaillian, American Gangster

SHOULD WIN: Christopher Hampton, Atonement
WILL WIN: Ronald Harwood, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

Total Nominations

1. No Country for Old Men, 8
2. There Will Be Blood, 6
3. Atonement, 6
4. Juno, 5
5. Michael Clayton, 5

AUSTRALIAN OPEN 2008: Women's Quarterfinals Preview

The 2008 Australian Open Women's Quarterfinals are now set. While I missed most of the first two rounds due to my trip to Northern Italy I have seen many of the important matches since.

Justine Henin BEL (1) vs. Maria Sharapova RUS (5). This marquee quarter-final match-up is a reprise of the final match of the WTA Tour last year, which I regarded as one of the best women's tennis matches of 2007. That the last two U.S. Open champions and Australian Open finalists are meeting in a quarter-final is a testament to the depth of the field in the women's game at the first grand slam of the year. Henin has won seven major titles to Sharapova's two and leads their lifetime head-to-head rivalry 6-2. But, Sharapova hates to lose and will not go down without a fight. Henin has every shot in the book and better mobility. Hopefully this match-up will live up to the hype none of the much heralded Grand Slam showdowns between Serena Williams and Henin failed to do on three separate occasions last year. Frankly, I don't like either of these players but I would like to see someone start beating Henin with regularity. Unfortunately, I think I'll have to keep on waiting. PREDICTION: Henin in 3 sets.

Jelena Jankovic SRB (3) vs. Serena Williams USA (7). Surprisingly, Serena and Jelena have only played each other four times in the past four years and they have a split score of 2 wins each. However, last year Serena was able to beat the Serbian player when the American was still playing her way into her best tennis and Jankovic was higher ranked and playing better tennis than she has shown so far in 2008. With the American's ranking now back in the top 10 and Jankovic's falling, Serena will have no problem booking her semifinal berth against her nemesis, Justine Henin. PREDICTION: S. Williams in 2 sets.



Venus Williams USA (8) vs. Ana Ivanovic SRB (4). This matchup is a repeat of the 2007 U.S. Open quarterfinal where Venus played her best tennis of the event and demolished the 2007 French open finalist and brand new #3 player in the world in two short, scintillating sets. It is doubtful that Ivanovic will be dominated so easily again but the fact remains that Venus has never lost to the pulchritudinous heir apparent to Sharapova's "It Girl" tiara in four meetings and it is doubtful that trend will be reversed in Melbourne this year. However, the fifth time may be the charm for Ivanovic to get her first win over the reigning Wimbledon champion. PREDICTION: V. Williams in 3 sets.

Daniela Hantuchova SVK (9) vs. Svetlana Kuznetsova RUS (2) Agnieszka Radwanska POL (29).
For the second slam in a row, Polish youngster Aggie Radwanska knocked out the #2 seed in the third round (Sharapova at the 2007 US Open, Kuznetsova at the 2008 Australian Open). This was always the weakest quarter of the draw and it was a dream path for Sveta to make her first big splash in Melbourne. Unfortunately for her, she made a huge splash crashing out to the wily counterpuncher in straight sets. Taking advantage of her opportunity is the hard-hitting Slovak waif who is now a tour veteran at age 24. Hantuchova has been to three Grand Slam quarter-finals about five years ago but never won any. Radwanska's never been remotely this far in a slam. Although widely considered mentally fragile, it is very likely Hntuchova will be the one more mentally prepared to take advantage of Kuznetsova's early exit to earn a major semifinal slot. PREDICTION: Hantuchova in 2 sets.