SD-3: Leno Likely To Win Migden's State Senate Seat

Mark Leno got some good news from a recent SurveyUSA poll commissioned by KPIX-TV: he is very likely to win the June 3rd Democratic primary election for the State Senate 3rd District.

Frank Russo at California Progress Report has some more details and analysis of the poll internals.

Overall, this survey of 1000 voters out of which 516 were determined to have already voted or to be likely voters, has a margin of error of 3.2% as to the favorable/unfavorable ratings and 4.4% as to who voters would vote for. The poll is fresh—from last Tuesday May 13 to Wednesday May 14. It was released Thursday [May 15].

Leno has by far the best favorability rating—34% to 16% overall and a whopping 48% to 10% favorable rating amongst those who the survey determined had already voted and a 44% to 11% favorability advantage with those who are likely voters.

Nation has a 23% to 15% favorability rating and this is 35% to 24% with those already voted and 23% to 15% with those who are deemed likely to vote.

Migden has a 34% to 17% unfavorable rating and her negatives with those who have already vote[e]d—38% to 25%--and likely voters—33% to 20% parallel this.

Nation has a narrow lead amongst conservatives 41% to 37% over Leno, get[s] beaten by Leno 37% to 30% by moderate voters, and is trounced by liberal voters (the bulk of the Democratic primary vote in this district) with 47% to 17% voting for Leno. Migden badly trails Leno in all of these categories. Leno even wins the women’s vote 35% to 25% in this survey.

This is a big change from a poll back in March which Mad Professah blogged about that showed Leno and Nation basicaly tied for the lead and Migden trailing badly.

The Leno-Migden primary race is one of the hottest and most interesting electoral battles of the June 3rd election.