Specifically, the questions to be considered on April 28th will be:
I believe that both the answers to these questions could be Yes (though, actually there are two questions in Question #2, the second of which is moot at this point) and Petitioners should lose their case. Respondent (the State of Washington being represented by Secretary of State Sam Reed) should rely heavily on the excellent 9th Circuit Court appellate opinion in this case.
- Whether the First Amendment right to privacy in political speech, association, and belief requires strict scrutiny when a state compels public release of identifying information about petition signers.
- Whether compelled public disclosure of identifying information about petition signers is narrowly tailored to a compelling interest, and whether Petitioners met all the elements required for a preliminary injunction.
Even conservative UCLA law professor Eugene Volokh believes that "you don't have a constitutional right to essentially engage in a legally significant action anonymously" and election law expert Rick Hasen is similarly dubious about petitioner's chances of prevailing. This is on appeal from the 9tyh Circuit, the Circuit the conservative majority loves to slap down.
Also, even though the issues are different from the Proposition 8 injunction case, it is clear which side if the "pro-gay" side (Respondent) and which is the "anti-gay" side (Petitioner) so it should be very interesting to see the final ruling in this case by the end of June.
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