This week, the venerable Lambda Legal provides their explanation of both Gaytterdämmerung cases (Hollingsworth v Perry and United States v. Windsor) in graphical form as well.
Basically there are 6 likely results in the Proposition 8 case (Hollingsworth), 5 of which will result in same-sex couples being able to marry again soon afterwards in California.
In the DOMA case (Windsor), there are really 3 possible results and even with a "win" the impact on all legally married same-sex couples in the country will take awhile to resolve. Here's the text of the Windsor possibilities:
3 Most Likely Outcomes
| Win Court strikes down section 3 of DOMA (affirms the Second Circuit decision that section 3 of DOMA violates the constitution’s guarantee of equality) | No Standing To be in Supreme Court | Lose SCOTUS Upholds DOMA (Reverses the Second Circuit decision) |
|---|---|---|
Federal government will have to treat marriages of same-sex couples the same way it treats the marriages of different-sex couples for all federal statutes and programs.
Would NOT resolve:
Whether states must allow same-sex couples to marry. Whether states must respect marriages same-sex couples legally entered into in other states.
Married same-sex couples who live in states that do not recognize their marriage may experience a period of uncertainty as to which federal benefits they can receive.
| The Court may find that the Department of Justice does not have the right to seek Court review and that the Bipartisan Legal Advisory Committee of the House of Representatives (BLAG) does not have standing to defend DOMA. The Appeals Court decision would be vacated by the Court and it would be the district court decision finding DOMA Section 3 unconstitutional that would stand. Further efforts might be necessary to defeat DOMA nationwide. |
Same-sex couples will continue to be denied rights, responsibilities & protections under more than 1,000 federal laws.
Pushing forward for Respect for Marriage Act in Congress.
|
The Supreme Court will issue its ruling sometime in June, on a Monday or Thursday. Most people (yours truly included) expect the cases to be released around 10am on Thursday June 27th.
Hat/tip to Joe.My.God
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