Saturday, March 11, 2023

2023 OSCARS: My Predictions for the Top 8 Categories

Here is my annual prediction post for the 2022 Oscars, i.e. the 95th Academy Awards. I really just consider the Top 8 categories on the blog but I often play the Oscar prediction game like lots of other people (on other websites) where I think about all 24 categories. I generally split my predictions into who I want to win versus (i.e. who I would vote for) as opposed to who I think will win (i.e. who the Academy voters will vote for).

In 2020 I predicted 6 of 8 correctly and last year I predicted 7 of  8 correctly. This year I have seen 6 of the (bolded) 10 Best Picture nominees (haven't seen The Fabelmans, Triangle of Sadness or Women Talking as of this writing but I do intend to watch The Fabelmans eventually). 

Best Picture:
  • "All Quiet on the Western Front" 
  • "Avatar: The Way of Water" 
  • "The Banshees of Inisherin"
  • "Elvis"
  • "Everything Everywhere All at Once" 
  • "The Fabelmans"
  • "Tár"
  • "Top Gun: Maverick"
  • "Triangle of Sadness"
  • "Women Talking"

SHOULD WIN: Avatar: The Way of Water.
WILL WIN: Everything Everywhere All at Once.

  • Martin McDonagh (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
  • Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”) 
  • Steven Spielberg (“The Fabelmans”) 
  • Todd Field (“Tár”) 
  • Ruben Östlund (“Triangle of Sadness”)
SHOULD WIN: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once.
WILL WIN: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once.

Lead Actor:
  • Austin Butler (“Elvis”)  
  • Colin Farrell (“The Banshees of Inisherin”) 
  • Brendan Fraser (“The Whale”)
  • Paul Mescal (“Aftersun”) 
  • Bill Nighy (“Living”) 
SHOULD WIN: Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin.
WILL WIN: Austin Butler, Elvis.

Lead Actress:
  • Cate Blanchett (“Tár”) 
  • Ana de Armas (“Blonde”) 
  • Andrea Riseborough (“To Leslie”)
  • Michelle Williams (“The Fabelmans”) 
  • Michelle Yeoh (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
SHOULD WIN: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once.
WILL WIN: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Supporting Actor:
  • Brendan Gleeson (“The Banshees of Inisherin”) 
  • Brian Tyree Henry (“Causeway”) 
  • Judd Hirsch (“The Fabelmans”)
  • Barry Keoghan (“The Banshees of Inisherin”) 
  • Ke Huy Quan (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”) 
SHOULD WIN: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
WILL WIN: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once.

Supporting Actress:
  • Angela Bassett (“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”) 
  • Hong Chau (“The Whale”) 
  • Kerry Condon (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)
  • Jamie Lee Curtis (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”) 
  • Stephanie Hsu (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
SHOULD WIN: Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever.
WILL WIN: Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever.

Adapted Screenplay:
  • “All Quiet on the Western Front,” Screenplay by Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson & Ian Stokell
  • “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery,” Written by Rian Johnson
  • “Living,” Written by Kazuo Ishiguro
  • “Top Gun: Maverick,” Screenplay by Ehren Kruger and Eric Warren Singer and Christopher McQuarrie; Story by Peter Craig and Justin Marks
  • “Women Talking,” Screenplay by Sarah Polley
SHOULD WIN: All Quiet on the Western Front.
WILL WIN: Women Talking.

Original Screenplay:
  • “The Banshees of Inisherin,” Written by Martin McDonagh
  • “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” Written by Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert
  • “The Fabelmans,” Written by Steven Spielberg & Tony Kushner
  • “Tár,” Written by Todd Field
  • “Triangle of Sadness,” Written by Ruben Östlund
WILL WIN: The Banshees of Inisherin.

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