Wednesday, June 03, 2009

FRENCH OPEN 2009: Men's Semifinals Preview

Here are my predictions for the men's semifinal matches at Roland Garros this year:

Robin Soderling SWE (23) vs. Andy Murray GBR (3) Fernando Gonzalez CHI (12). Soderling followed up his unthinkable 4th Round dismissal of 4-time French Open champ Rafael Nadal by delivering a vicious beat down to former World #3 Nikolay Davydenko in the quarterfinals to reach his first careeer semifinal. The powerful Swede will next face the brilliant Chilean Fernando Gonzalez who knocked out The Great White Hope of the British Isles, Andy Murray. Gonzo was scintillating in victory, winning a 6-0 third set, although serving for the match at 5-3 in the 4th set he was promptly broken. Happily, Murray decided to gift him the very next service game by repeatedly dumping balls into the net and losing the match.

Soderling versus Gonzalez is an intriguing match-up. They both have very strong forehands, but Soderling also has a very powerful (two-handed) backhand, while Gonzalez also has an excellent one-handed backhand (both topspin and slice) but is probably overpowered on that wing. At 6'3", the Swede is at least 3 inches taller than the Chilean and has the powerful serve to show for it. Gonzalez definitely has the edge on movement and feel but Soderling is currently in the middle of one of the great historical momentum sweeps through a major tournament. Soderling has lost to Gonzalez the last 4 consecutive times (of 7) they played, including their very last match on clay in 2007. But this Robin Soderling is a completely different player. This should be the better of the two semifinals, almost definitely 4 or 5 sets, with the man with more nerve the final one standing.

PREDICTION: Soderling in 4 sets.

Juan Martin Del Potro ARG (5) vs. Roger Federer SUI (2). What a long, strange trip it has been.

Once Federer got past Tommy Haas to make the final 8 there were only two players left in the draw who had ever beaten him and they were facing each other in the same quarterfinal (Andy Murray and Fernando Gonzalez). Happily for the 13-time major champion, Gonzalez won that battle. Federer has played The Kid from Argentina 5 times in the last two years and never lost a set. In fact, just a few months ago in a 2009 Australian Open quarterfinal the Swiss player humiliated del Potro 6-3 6-0 6-0. He also dismissed The Kid in the semifinals of the Madrid clay Master tournament on his way to winning the title.

However, del Potro is the real deal, a 20-year-old who is 6'5" with overwhelming firepower in multiple departments: service, forehand amd backhand. He is starting to improve his movement as well as his mental toughness. I have no doubt that he will win a major title eventually, just not this one.

PREDICTION: Federer in 4 sets.

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