Sunday, February 24, 2013

2013 OSCARS: Predictions, Mine and Nate Silver's

Sunday is the day of the Gay Super Bowl, i.e. the 85th Annual Academy Awards ceremony. I have previously made my predictions for this year's winners of the Top 8 categories, like I have done every year since 2007:

In 2011, I predicted 15 of 24 correctly (7 of the Top 8).
In 2010, I predicted 17 of 24 correctly (7 of the Top 8).
In 2009, I predicted 20 of 24 correctly (8 of the Top 8).
In 2008, I predicted 8 of the Top 8 categories correctly.
In 2007, I predicted 7 of the Top 8 categories correctly.

Here are my predictions for all 24 categories (with 2nd choices) for the 2013 Oscars:
Best Picture: Argo (2nd: Lincoln) 
Director: Steven Spielberg (2nd: David O. Russell) 
Original Screenplay: Django Unchained (2nd: Amour) 
Adapted Screenplay: Lincoln (2nd: Argo) 
Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis  (2nd: Bradley Cooper ) 
Actress: Jennifer Lawrence (2nd: Jessica Chastain) 
Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway (2nd: Amy Adams) 
Supporting Actor: Robert De Niro (2nd: Tommy Lee Jones) 
Editing: Argo (2nd: Zero Dark Thirty) 
Production Design: Anna Karenina (2nd: Life of Pi) 
Sound Mixing: Les Miserables (2nd: Life of Pi) 
Sound Editing: Life of Pi (2nd: Django Unchained) 
Cinematography: Life of Pi (2nd: Skyfall) 
Costume Design: Anna Karenina (2nd: Lincoln) 
Documentary: Searching for Sugarman  (2nd: How To Survive A Plague) 
Foreign Language: Amour (2nd: A Royal Affair) 
Animated Film: Frankenweenie (2nd: Brave) 
Makeup: The HobbitScore: Lincoln (2nd: Life of Pi) 
Song: "Skyfall" (from Skyfall) (2nd: "Pi's Lullaby") 
Visual Effects: Life of Pi (2nd: Prometheus) 
Animated Short: Maggie Simpson in The Longest Daycare (2nd: Paperman) 
Live Action Short: Buzkashi Boys (2nd: Asad)  
Documentary Short: Inocente (2nd: Redemption)

Predictions Guru Nate Silver has gotten into the game, somewhat, by predicting the Top 6 categories. His choices are Argo, Spielberg, Lawrence, Day-Lewis, Hathaway, Jones.

I generally agree with him on his predictions, but the hardest category to pick is Best Supporting Actor this year (usually the first acting award given out of the night) and I think De Niro is going to pull a surprise win. And really there are 8 top categories so it is a bit of a cop-out to not do the screenplay categories. The adapted screenplay category is particularly tough this year, basically a coin flip between Argo and Lincoln while Original Screenplay is basically anyone's game (except Beasts of the Southern Wild--they have zero chance of winning any Oscars).

We'll know within several hours how well I did this year. I suspect my results in the Top 8 will not be as high as I am accustomed.

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