In 2012, I predicted 7 of the Top 8 categories correctly;
In 2011, I predicted 15 of 24 correctly (7 of the Top 8).
In 2010, I predicted 17 of 24 correctly (7 of the Top 8).
In 2009, I predicted 20 of 24 correctly (8 of the Top 8).
In 2008, I predicted 8 of the Top 8 categories correctly.
In 2007, I predicted 7 of the Top 8 categories correctly.
In 2008, I predicted 8 of the Top 8 categories correctly.
In 2007, I predicted 7 of the Top 8 categories correctly.
Here are my predictions for all 24 categories (with 2nd choices) for the 2013 Oscars:
Best Picture: Argo (2nd: Lincoln)
Director: Steven Spielberg (2nd: David O. Russell)
Original Screenplay: Django Unchained (2nd: Amour)
Adapted Screenplay: Lincoln (2nd: Argo)
Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis (2nd: Bradley Cooper )
Actress: Jennifer Lawrence (2nd: Jessica Chastain)
Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway (2nd: Amy Adams)
Supporting Actor: Robert De Niro (2nd: Tommy Lee Jones)
Editing: Argo (2nd: Zero Dark Thirty)
Production Design: Anna Karenina (2nd: Life of Pi)
Sound Mixing: Les Miserables (2nd: Life of Pi)
Sound Editing: Life of Pi (2nd: Django Unchained)
Cinematography: Life of Pi (2nd: Skyfall)
Costume Design: Anna Karenina (2nd: Lincoln)
Documentary: Searching for Sugarman (2nd: How To Survive A Plague)
Foreign Language: Amour (2nd: A Royal Affair)
Animated Film: Frankenweenie (2nd: Brave)
Makeup: The HobbitScore: Lincoln (2nd: Life of Pi)
Song: "Skyfall" (from Skyfall) (2nd: "Pi's Lullaby")
Visual Effects: Life of Pi (2nd: Prometheus)
Animated Short: Maggie Simpson in The Longest Daycare (2nd: Paperman)
Live Action Short: Buzkashi Boys (2nd: Asad)
Documentary Short: Inocente (2nd: Redemption)
Predictions Guru Nate Silver has gotten into the game, somewhat, by predicting the Top 6 categories. His choices are Argo, Spielberg, Lawrence, Day-Lewis, Hathaway, Jones.
I generally agree with him on his predictions, but the hardest category to pick is Best Supporting Actor this year (usually the first acting award given out of the night) and I think De Niro is going to pull a surprise win. And really there are 8 top categories so it is a bit of a cop-out to not do the screenplay categories. The adapted screenplay category is particularly tough this year, basically a coin flip between Argo and Lincoln while Original Screenplay is basically anyone's game (except Beasts of the Southern Wild--they have zero chance of winning any Oscars).
We'll know within several hours how well I did this year. I suspect my results in the Top 8 will not be as high as I am accustomed.
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