Tuesday, October 20, 2009

Latest Maine Poll on Question 1: 48-48 Tie

It's exactly two weeks until election day in Maine where they will be voting on Question 1, a measure to eliminate marriage equality, very similar to last year's Proposition 8 in California. A PPP poll released today shows a 48-48 tie with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 points. PPP surveyed 1,103 likely voters by phone between October 16-19.

Opinion on the issue predictably breaks heavily along party lines. 74% of Republicans are planning to vote yes while only 25% of Democrats are. Independents may end up deciding which way it goes- presently 50% of them support rejecting the law with 44% in opposition.

Older voters are strongest in their support of cutting off gay marriage. 54% are in support with 40% opposed. Senior citizens can often dominate the electorate in low turnout elections so the ultimate fate of this measure may lie in how many younger people get out to the polls and vote.

There is a strong gender gap on the issue with 53% of men but only 43% of women wanting to reject the law. It's also interesting to note that while white voters oppose undoing the law by a thin 47-45 margin, nonwhite voters in the state support rejection by a 55-35 margin, creating the overall tie.

It's all about turnout! If you live in Maine or know anyone in Maine make sure you let them know you want them to VOTE NO ON QUESTION 1!

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