Wednesday, June 06, 2012

POLL: MN Prop 8 Copycat Measure Likely To Fail

A new poll from PPP shows a dramatic shift in favor of marriage equality in the opposition to a constitutional amendment (similar to California's Proposition8 in 2008) that would ban marriage equality by defining marriage as "the union between one man and one woman" in the state if passed by voters on the November 2012 ballot.
Previously the amendment was leading 48% Yes, 44% No but in a poll taken May 31st to June 3rd the numbers are now 43% Yes, 49% No (7% Undecided).

PPP reports:
Now only 43% of voters support the proposed amendment, with 49% of voters opposed to it. The shift since then has come with independent voters. After previously supporting the amendment by a 50/40 spread, they're now opposing it 54/37. Republicans continue to strongly favor the amendment (74/21) while Democrats are almost equally strong in their opposition (71/22).
Independents coming a lot closer to Democrats than Republicans on gay rights is becoming something of a constant in our polling. The GOP seriously risks antagonizing voters in the middle if it continues to pursue a far right social agenda.
Minnesota sees the same massive generational gap on this issue that we've found in other states. Voters over 45 support the proposed amendment by a 50/42 spread. But those under 45 oppose it by an even greater 60/34 margin.
Voters in the state think gay marriage should be legal by a 47/42 margin, closely matching the numbers on the amendment. And when you expand the discussion to civil unions 75% of voters support some form of legal recognition for gay couples to only 21% who think there should be none. That includes even 55% of Republicans.
There's a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points and proponents of LGBT equality should not breathe easily until support for the threshold question on marriage equality itself is above 50% outside of the margin of error, but the numbers are definitely moving in the right direction. Minnesota is the only state that will be voting to ban marriage equality in November, with North Carolina already having amended their constitution in May to ban not only same-sex marriages but also civil unions and domestic partnerships.

In Minnesota, voters respond to the "triple option" question (marriage equality, civil unions, no relationship recognition) with 43% supporting marriage equality, 32% supporting civil unions and only 21% supporting no recognition. That's a whopping 75% which supports either marriage equality or civil unions (the typical number in most states is around 2/3rds support).

It's nice to have good news in Minnesota, since we will also be looking at pro-gay marriage referendum questions in Washington, Maine and Maryland. It would be stunning if the pro-equality side could win all 4.

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