Celebrity Friday: Mitrice Richardson

The sad, mysterious story of Mitrice Richardson has come to an end with the revelation that skeletal remains found in a Malibu Canyon belong to the 25-year-old Black lesbian student and beauty queen who disappeared 11 months ago.

Richardson was arrested at Geoffrey's restaurant in Malibu after acting bizarrely and saying she was unable to pay her $89 dinner tab. She was released from custody shortly after midnight without her car — which had been impounded — or a cellphone or purse. Investigators believe she was spotted three times in the canyon area in daylight hours that morning. After that, she was never heard from again.

The remains — which include a skull — were found about two and a half miles from the last credible sighting of her on Sept. 17. The discovery casts an ominous shadow over the case of the missing woman.

[...]

The release of the Cal State Fullerton graduate into an area near a rugged canyon that she was not familiar with prompted widespread criticism of the Sheriff's Department. Her mother and father filed lawsuits accusing the Sheriff's Department of negligence in releasing her without transportation or conducting a mental health exam.

Geoffrey's staff told sheriff's personnel that Richardson was acting crazily at the restaurant. And police investigators said later that an examination of her diaries and text messages revealed she was probably suffering from a severe bipolar disorder and may not have slept for five days before her arrest.

Rod 2.0 posted this local ABC television coverage of the Mitrice Richardson story and decried "A young life lost over $89."

Freedom To Marry Returns To California...August 18

The Freedom to Marry returns to California...soon. There are multiple (unconfirmed) reports that Judge Vaughn Walker has lifted the stay on his decision striking down Proposition 8.

The official word is now that the judge has indeed ruled that the losers in Perry v. Schwarzenegger are denied a motion for stay but has stayed his own decision in this matter until Wednesday August 18th at 5pm.

Judge Walker's Final Order Lifting Stay on Prop 8 Ruling

538 Claims Marriage Equality Support Accelerating

Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com has analyzed the polling on public support for marriage equality and notes that there appears to be an acceleration in the rate at which support for legal recognition for gay and lesbian couples is increasing.

Something to bear in mind is that it's only been fairly recently that gay rights groups -- and other liberals and libertarians -- shifted toward a strategy of explicitly calling for full equity in marriage rights, rather than finding civil unions to be an acceptable compromise. While there is not necessarily zero risk of backlash resulting from things like court decisions -- support for gay marriage slid backward by a couple of points, albeit temporarily, after a Massachusetts' court's ruling in 2003 that same-sex marriage was required by that state's constitution -- it seems that, in general, "having the debate" is helpful to the gay marriage cause, probably because the secular justifications against it are generally quite weak.

In mathematical terms we we would say that the second derivative (the rate of the rate of increase) is positive, but you can just notice that there is an uptick in the blue graph at the end.

But no matter how you analyze it, it shows that the National Organization for Marriage will be out of business soon. Hurray!

MOVIE REVIEW: The Kids Are All Right

Decided to go see The Kids Are All Right starring Annette Bening and Juliane Moore as a lesbian couple on our 2nd wedding anniversary at the shiny, new L.A. Live Regal 14 Theaters in downtown Los Angeles. Mark Ruffalo stars as the sperm donor (I prefer the term sperm dad or "spad," being one myself) which resulted in the couples two kids, played by Mia Wasikowska (last seen in Timothy Burton's Alice in Wonderland) and Josh Hutcherson (who has starred in Journey to the Center of the Earth, Zathura, Bridge to Teribithia).

The film was written (with Stuart Blumberg) and directed by Lisa Cholodenko, a lesbian mom herself.

The Kids Are All Right is a heart-wrenchingly real depiction of American family life, especially from an LGBT perspective. It is also laugh-out-loud, gasping-for-air funny. However, as I told my husband on the way out, "There's an awful lot of heterosexual sex in that movie for a lesbian comedy!" He pointed out that there's a fair amount of depiction of gay sexuality as well, with multiple kisses and affection between Jules(played by Julianne) and Nic (played by Annette), not to mention the entire "gay man porn" subplot.

The basic premise is that the two kids, Joni (played by Wasikowska) and Laser (played by Hutcherson) become curious about their father and make contact with him. Since Joni is 18, she has to make the call to the sperm bank, at the request of her rambunctious 15-year-old brother. But it is another member of the family who ends up making a significant connection with Ruffalo's Paul, who is played with excessive charm.

As a matter of fact, all the acting is superb, with Annette and Bening leading the pack. Annette's Nic is fragile, funny and domineering, but fiercely loves her family. Julianne's Jules is spacey, beautiful and (often inadvertently) hysterically funny. This film should get them both back into the Oscar nominations discussion, and may even win one or both of these beautifully aging actresses (Annette, 51; Julianne, 49) that little gold statuette they have been denied for years.

The writing is astonishing. All of the characters are flawed, but also appealing in some way. Just like in real life. Although some critics have taken issue with the degree of accuracy or fidelity in the depiction of lesbian sexuality as well as the non-depiction of people of color in a positive light,

overall I would argue this is a must-see film for most regular film goers.

(On a side note, it was pretty surreal to watch the final scenes of the movie and yell out "Hey, that's Occidental College!" Joni goes off to college, and the place she picks just happens to be the place at which I teach and work. Go figure. It's silly, but that familiar aspect, as well as the distinctive shots of Los Angeles gave the film an especially high emotional resonance with me.)

Running Time: 1 hour, 46 minutes. MPAA Rating: Rated R for strong sexual content, nudity, language and some teen drug and alcohol use.

Plot: A-.
Acting: A+.
Visuals: A.
Impact: A.

Overall Grade: A (4.0/4.0).

CNN Poll Shows National Majority Supports Marriage Equality

A spanking new CNN poll (released today) shows that a majority of Americans support marriage equality. However, as one can see from the excerpt above, there are slight variations in this "majority" support depending on how the question is asked.

The first question asks "Do you think gays and lesbians have a constitutional right to get married and have their marriage recognized by law as valid?" while the second question asks "Do you think gays and lesbians should have a constitutional right to get married and have their marriage recognized by law as valid?" Notice the support is higher in the second question. It's easier to say yes to something that SHOULD be true, as opposed to the first question which is asking for the respondent's evaluation of current law.

Note this interesting little nugget:

The gap widens dramatically when age is taken into account. Nearly six in ten Americans under the age of 50 say gay rights are protected under the Constitution. Only 38 percent of Americans over the age of 50 say the same thing.

"This is one of the few instances when independents side with one party rather than falling in between the Dems and the GOP," CNN Polling Director Keating Holland said. "56 percent of Democrats and 57 percent of Independents think the Constitution conveys the right to marry to same-sex couples. Only a quarter of all Republicans agree."

It should also be noted that the support for marriage equality (among the larger sample) is not above the margin of error of the poll.

Oh, and in other horrifying political opinion news, 49% of Americans think that birthright citizenship guaranteed by the 14th Amendment should be repealed (51% oppose it). Oy vey!

FOOD REVIEW: Five Guys Burgers

After hearing that Five Guys Burger was Barack Obama's favorite burger joint in D.C. the next time I was in town I checked it out. Apparently, Obama's new fave is Ray's Hell Burger (since that's were he took Russian President Dmitry Medvedev recently for a cheeseburger).

I have bad news for devotees of In-n-Out Burgers: I have found a better burger. The burgers at Five Guys are superior to the ones at In-n-Out although they are not as cheap. But I'd rather pay twice as much for a burger more than twice as good (and more than twice as filling).

Name: Five Guys Burgers
Location: 2300 Wilson Boulevard, Arlington, VA 22201.
Contact: 703-812-8440.

AMBIANCE: B-.
SERVICE: B+.
VALUE: A-.
FOOD: A.

OVERALL: A-.

ABA Endorses Marriage Equality

The American Bar Association endorsed marriage equality at its national conference today. The ABA passed the following resolution:

"RESOLVED, That the American Bar Association urges state, territorial, and tribal governments to eliminate all of their legal barriers to civil marriage between two persons of the same sex who are otherwise eligible to marry."

Evan Wolfson of Freedom To Marry noted:

"The American Bar Association, the largest voluntary professional organization in the world, has strongly declared that there is no good reason to continue excluding same sex couples from marriage. With today's resolution, the ABA embraces our nation's promise of liberty and equal protection under the law and signals a growing consensus in America's legal profession that marriage is a fundamental right that belongs to every citizen."

Another big win for marriage equality!

GOP Kills 2 API Federal Judicial Nominations

Edward M. Chen, federal district court nominee

Wow. The GOP must really care about what people of color think about their actions. What they really do care about is the (federal) judiciary. So, it is notable that they have done their best to kill the nominations of two Asian-American men to be federal judges in the 9th Circuit.

Goodwin Liu and Edward Chen were nominated to the federal judiciary by President Obama but blocked by Republicans despite having received 12-7 endorsements from the Senate Judiciary committee.

Under a rarely invoked rule, the Senate must agree to carry over pending nominations when it goes on a 30-day recess. But Republican leaders objected to carrying over several disputed nominees, including Liu and Chen.

"The Republicans are obstructing and, in effect, trying to kill these nominations," Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) said Friday. "It is tragic because these are very worthy nominees who deserve to have their nominations debated and put to a vote."

The San Francisco Chronicle explains why the Republicans are blocking the confirmation of Liu and Chen to the bench.

Liu, a former Rhodes scholar and Supreme Court clerk, has been labeled an extreme liberal by Republican opponents, who cite his support of same-sex marriage and affirmative action.

Chen's opponents point to his background as an American Civil Liberties Union lawyer in San Francisco from 1985 until 2001, when federal judges appointed him as a magistrate.

Under procedures requiring unanimous consent, Republicans have regularly objected to holding Senate votes on Obama's judicial candidates.

They agreed to allow a handful of confirmation votes Thursday, the last day before the recess. But they blocked votes on more than 40 other candidates, and returned five who have encountered opposition, including Liu and Chen, to the White House.

If renominated, Liu and Chen will return to the Judiciary Committee for new votes after Congress returns Sept. 13. To force the Senate to consider their confirmation over Republican objections, Senate Democrats would have to muster 60 votes, which would require support from at least one Republican.

As I noted last month, whether Goodwin Liu joins the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals is a key test to see whether President Obama will actually go to bat for things that progressives believe in.

The 9th Circuit, of course is the appellate court which will be hearing the appeal of Perry v. Schwarzenegger, the Proposition 8 case.

Out College Presidents Meet and Organize

Nine college presidents met over the weekend in Chicago and agreed to form a new organization, called LGBTQ Presidents in Higher Education. Apparently, there were 25 invitations sent out, but nine who attended:

Charlita Shelton of University of the Rockies
Theodora Kalikow of the University of Maine at Farmington
Karen Whitney of Clarion University
Neal King of Antioch University Los Angeles
Katherine Ragsdale of the Episcopal Divinity School
Raymond Crossman of the Adler School of Professional Psychology
Charles Middleton of Roosevelt University
Les McCabel of Semester at Sea
Ralph Hexter of Hampshire College

Interestingly, missing from this list are the two Black LGBT college presidents MadProfessah blogged about earlier this year, DeRionne Pollard of Montgomery College and Raynard Kington of Grinnell College.

Hat/tip to TowleRoad.

Gay Beats Bolt In 100m in Stockholm

Well! For the first time, American Tyson Gay has beaten Jamaican phenom Usain Bolt in the 100m. It happened yesterday at a race in Stockholm, Sweden. Bolt, the World and Olympic record holder had not been beaten in over two years and over two dozen races. Gay won in 9.84while Bolt was second with 9.97, well below what he ran a month ago (9.82) or his reigning world record time of 9.58.

Watch it for yourself:

Hat/tip to Rod 2.0

Connecting Federal Rulings on Prop 8 and SB 1070

My friend Sandip Roy has a great piece up on Salon magazine connecting the two recent federal rulings on Arizona's SB 1070 and California's Proposition 8. Called "Proposition 8 and S.B. 1070: Sisters under the skin?", Sandip writes from the perspective of a queer immigrant to point out that the two apparently disparate rulings validated two parts of his identity but stemmed from the same law: the 14th amendment to the U.S. constitution.

On July 28 Susan Bolton issued an injunction that defanged the anti-immigrant S.B. 1070 in Arizona. On Aug. 4, Vaughn Walker found California’s Proposition 8 that outlawed same-sex marriage unconstitutional. For this they will both be tarred as “judicial activists.” Judge Bolton has received death threats. Judge Walker is being denounced.

I have no idea if the two judges know each other, but within one week, they had suddenly brought together two parts of who I am. As a gay immigrant, I am used to juggling identities, never sure which one is acceptable in which setting, which one I should check at the door.

[...]

The fight over Proposition 8 in California rested on the 14th Amendment of the U.S. constitution. What Judge Walker found was Proposition 8 violated the due process and equal protection clause of the 14th Amendment to the Constitution.

The fight over illegal immigration is about federal jurisdiction and states' rights but it also boils down to the 14th Amendment. That’s the grand prize, the Holy Grail that the Russell Pearces of Arizona are really aiming to overturn. Pearce wrote in an e-mail obtained by CBS 5 News: "I also intend to push for an Arizona bill that would refuse to accept or issue a birth certificate that recognizes citizenship to those born to illegal aliens, unless one parent is a citizen."

[...]

Yes, both victories are just rest stops in much bigger fights. Both fights are probably headed for an uncertain future in the U.S. Supreme Court. But until today I didn’t realize that in some ways it’s the same fight. Supervisor David Campos told the cheering crowd that this was about "justice for all" -- not just "gays and lesbians, but immigrants and minorities and transgender."

That can sound like San Francisco big umbrella talk. But these cases touch each other in ways I didn’t realize. My numerologist friend said, "Of course they do, the digits in 1070 add up to, you guessed it, 8."

[...]

If the twin judgments show anything it's this. Though the crowd that celebrated Bolton’s decision in Phoenix might look different from the crowd celebrating Walker’s ruling, these are sisters under the skin. As [Equal Justice Society's Eva] Paterson reminded the crowd, "It’s the same law that gave equality and protection to immigrants in Arizona."

A great example of intersectional analysis at work..

Eye Candy: Khalon Webb

Khalon Webb is a 29-year-old model from Washington, D.C. He is today's Eye Candy model although I first found about him on the Dark Flex blog.

08/08/08 2 Years Later: We're STILL Married

August 8, 2010 12noon: celebrating our 2nd wedding anniversary with a brunch at an East Hollywood restaurant called Square One Dining.

MOVIE REVIEW: Salt

The Other Half and I saw Salt at our new favorite theaters, the Arclight Cinemas in Pasadena, on its opening weekend.

Salt stars Angelina Jolie, Chiwetel Ejiofor and

Liev Schrieber in a script written by Kurt Wimmer and directed by Phillip Noyce (Clear and Present Danger, Dead Calm).

One of the interesting aspects of Salt is that the main character of Evelyn Salt was originally written for a male actor, namely Tom Cruise. When you see the movie this is not surprising because it is very reminiscent of the Jason Bourne movies (The Bourne Identity, The Bourne Supremacy, The Bourne Ultimatum.)

Similar to these movies, Salt is pretty action-packed; it is practically a non-stop thrill ride. As a feminist, it is quite fun to see Angelina Jolie kicking so much butt.

There are some aspects of the plots that don't quite past the smell test but in general events are proceeding so quickly one generally doesn't dwell on these imperfections. Without giving away any spoilers I will say that the movie ends in such a way that makes a sequel (or sequels) highly likely.

Running Time: 1 hour, 39 minutes. MPAA Rating: PG-13 for intense sequences of violence and action.

Plot: A.
Acting: A-.
Visuals: A-.
Impact: B.

Overall Grade: A-/B+ (3.583/4.0).

VIDEO: Inception vs Toy Story 3

CA GOV and CA AG Oppose Stay in Prop 8 Case

The State of California filed motions today opposing a stay in Judge Vaughn Walker's landmark decision ruling Proposition 8 unconstitutional; in other words Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and Attorney General Jerry Brown are on record saying they want same-sex couples to be able to get married while the decision is on appeal.

As governor, Schwarzenegger is named as a defendant in the case, although he remained neutral in the lawsuit challenging Proposition 8. The governor was against the initiative when it was on the ballot and chose not to defend the constitutional amendment in court. He filed his brief Friday in his role as a named defendant and on behalf of two other administration officials.

The Schwarzenegger administration contended in the brief that there is no governmental or public interest in continuing a ban on gay marriage after Walker's decision." Instead, the administration said that allowing such marriages to resume would further the state's interest in recognizing the rights of gays and lesbians. It also said that there would be no administrative burden for the state to issue marriage licenses to gay and lesbian couples. California issued 18,000 such licenses before passage of Proposition 8.

Schwarzenegger applauded Walker's decision earlier this week.

"For the hundreds of thousands of Californians in gay and lesbian households who are managing their day-to-day lives, this decision affirms the full legal protections and safeguards I believe everyone deserves," the governor said in a statement Wednesday.

California Attorney General Jerry Brown, a Democrat, filed a similar motion. Brown had argued that Proposition 8 was unconstitutional when the measure went before the California Supreme Court last year.

Read Attorney General's motion below.

CA AG Brown Motion To Oppose Stay in Prop 8 Case

New Season of Venture Bros Is Coming!!

The Venture Bros. is one of my favorite guilty pleasures. It is an absolutely wicked animated series on Cartoon Network, now entering it's 5th season. Check out the trailer.

Hat/tip to WonderMan

Celebrity Friday: Barack Obama

Wednesday was Barack Obama's 49th birthday. The next day, his second Supreme Court Justice was confirmed.

Kagan Confirmed To SCOTUS; It's Now 1/3 Female

By a vote of 63 to 37, the United States Senate confirmed President Barack Obama's second Supreme Court nominee, Elena Kagan, 50, to the country's highest court. That body will have three women serving simultaneously, the most ever when Kagan joins Ruth Bader Ginsburg, 77, and Sonia Sotomayor, 56, as the 112th Justice of the United States Supreme Court.

WATCH: Wolfson v. Gallagher on AC360

BOOK REVIEW: Paul McAuley's Outer Series

The Quiet War	Gardens of the Sun

Paul J. McAuley's The Quiet War and Gardens of the Sun are the first two books in what I will call "the Outer series" although it is not clear if there will be more. In researching authors like Alastair Reynolds, Iain M. Banks and Peter F. Hamilton the name Paul J. McAuley (and Ian Whates) came up.

The Quiet War and Gardens of the Sun tell the story of an Earth which has undergone severe climate change which has led to vast political upheaval. There are now only three political superpowers: Greater Brazil (basically South America and North America), Europe and Pacifica (China and India). Humanity has split into multiple strains, with colonies on Mars, the Moon and the Outer Planets. During the last war, the Mars colonists attempted to arrange for an asteroid to hit the Earth so the Chinese re-directed a comet to land on their colony and successfully re-directed the asteroid so it missed our planet.

Animosity between people still on earth and the people in outer space persist decades after these events, especially since the Outers as they are called, have taken to genetically adapting themselves to low-gravity conditions, using bio-engineering in ways that people on Earth find morally offensive. After almost ruining the planet with pollution in the 20th and 21st centuries, the people of Earth in the 23rd century are busily cleaning up their world and attempting to reverse the damage. They look upon any meddling with nature with suspicion.

Both Gardens of the Sun and The Quiet War are chock-full of the details of living in low and zero gravity, combined with a plot that features intricate, internecine political intrigue.

Overall, I would not say that these McAuley books are in the same league as the works of Hamilton or Reynolds, which are long, suspenseful, totally engrossing works of space opera. They are worth reading, however, and a reasonable diversion but not a substitute for hard science fiction, if that is where your tastes lie.

Title: The Quiet War

Author: Paul J. McAuley

Length: 405 pages.
Publisher: Pyr.
Date: September 22, 2009.

OVERALL GRADE: A-/B+.

PLOT: A-.
IMAGERY: B+.
IMPACT: B+.
WRITING: A-.

Title: Gardens of the Sun

Author: Paul J. McAuley

Length: 411 pages.
Publisher: Pyr.
Date: February 2010,.

OVERALL GRADE: A-/B+.

PLOT: A-.
IMAGERY: B+.
IMPACT: A-.
WRITING: B+.

Walker Stays Ruling Until Friday August 6

The Court has issued the following statement:

ORDER granting [706] Motion to Shorten Time. Plaintiffs,
plaintiff-intervenor and defendants are DIRECTED to respond to Doc #705 on
or before August 6, 2010. The clerk shall STAY entry of judgment herein
until the motion to stay pending appeal has been decided. (vrwlc1, COURT
STAFF) (Filed on 8/4/2010)

This means that no same-sex couples can get married right now. A hearing will be held on Friday August 6th and then the Judge will rule on the possibility of a stay. Even if he does NOT issue a stay, it is very likely that the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals will do so, pending the appeals process.

Federal Judge Rules Prop 8 Unconstitutional

This is a very big win.

Decision To Strike Down Prop 8

Prop 8 Decision Day Rally in Downtown LA

Interview With Dave Fleischer: Prop 8 Report Author

Dave Fleischer is the author of the 509-page Prop 8 Report which was released publicly on Tuesday. I have known Dave for years and he agreed to this on the record interview with MadProfessah.com.

MadProfessah: What are the main results or ideas you want people to gain from this report?

Dave Fleischer:
* The No on 8 campaign made a smart decision to invest in research. As a result, for the first time ever, in any campaign, the LGBT community has daily tracking polling that measures increases and decreases in our support as voters were being exposed to the anti-gay opposition campaign. This is far superior to episodic polls taken when voters are considering the question out of context and have not recently been exposed to the vile but effective opposition campaign. The No on 8 tracking polling by Lake allows us to correlate voter movement to significant changes in the political environment including but not limited to strategic decisions made by the competing campaigns. That's why this report is the first report ever to seriously evaluate why we struggle to compete in these campaigns. It provides evidence that allows us to consider and evaluate the wide range of competing hypotheses offered by a wide variety of observers. Up until now, we just had the hypotheses, not the data. Now, we have significant data. With the data, we are able to reject some hypotheses, confirm others, and notice areas where we need more information. We are on our way to learning more about the electoral reality in which we are operating.

* Based on the data, we know why we lost. We lost because in the final six weeks, when TV ads from both campaigns saturated the airwaves, almost 700,000 votes switched sides and decided to oppose same-sex marriage. It seems fair to me to conclude that Yes on 8 outcampaigned us in the final six weeks. We went from even to losing in the final six weeks. And it's fair to give Yes on 8 credit for what they accomplished, because we lost the most ground by far among the exact group of voters they targeted: parents.

* No on 8 regained some of the ground we lost, but only when we directly rebutted the opposition fear-mongering. "O'Connell" was No on 8's belated rebuttal of the pernicious Yes on 8 ads that exploited and stimulated anti-gay prejudice by making people fear that kids were in danger. The effectiveness of the "O'Connell" ad, while limited, suggests that we can successfully rebut the longstanding lies, at least among some voters. And the fact that it improved the situation compared to how we were doing when we were avoiding the issue makes it clear that avoidance serves us poorly. When the opposition attacks the character of LGBT people, we have to rebut immediately, directly, and clearly.

* As we prepare to go back to the ballot, we have to commit ourselves to gaining insight into how to rebut those attacks effectively. We still have so much to learn; after all, does "O'Connell" represent the best we can do? We simply don't yet know. We need to try out, in real world circumstances that simulate the campaign, what rebuttals help us most with most of the voters who are susceptible to the opposition fear-mongering. Luckily, we have a great immediate opportunity to enlarge our learning, when we canvass. From my point of view, when we are canvassing, this leads to a practical imperative: we should talk about kids to as many voters as we can; test different messages to see what works; and consider the canvass an investment in qualitative research, the largest, longest focus group in social science history. My concern is that if we don't do this -- if we don't talk about kids now, when the stakes are low -- we will be tempted once again to avoid the issue in an campaign, when the stakes are so high. Then history will repeat itself, to our detriment.

MP: How long did the report take to research and write and who paid for it?

DF: 18 months. Paid for by the LGBT Mentoring Project. No money solicited from nor did any come from CA individuals or organizations or the No on 8 campaign on anyone evaluated in the report.

MP: When do you think we should return to the ballot to overturn Proposition 8?

DF: We should return to the ballot when we have a decent chance to win. So we have homework to do. Should only choose the year when we have finished the homework. That could be 2012, or a different year. To me, what's relevant is: have we done our homework?

MP: One of the key findings is in wrong-way voting. Apparently there were 6% of voters who voted No who opposed marriage equality as opposed to 4% of Yes voters who supported marriage equality. Thus there's a net gain of 2 percentage points for the No side. Can you explain how confident you are of this result?

DF: Very confident. The Lake polling data and our methodology to interpret it are all laid in out detail in the report in a special appendix. [Appendix K]

We acknowledge all of the limitations of the data. But here's what we calculate:

* approx 1.525 million people were wrong-way voters

* of those, 875,000 voted No and opposed same-sex marriage

* and 650,000 voted Yes though they favored same-sex marriage

* the difference, 225,000 voters, made the margin closer by approx. 450,000 votes

FYI, David Binder's polling during the No on 8 campaign, commissioned by the No on 8 campaign, corroborated Lake. In the one poll where he asked questions you could use to gauge wrong-way voting, conducted Sept. 2-4, he found that

* 13% of the voters who found same-sex marriage acceptable said they'd vote Yes, and

* 19% of the voters who found same-sex marriage unacceptable said they'd vote No.

This is a less reliable measure of wrong-way voting than because a) it was further in advance of election day, and some voters self-correct; and b) Binder's question gave three options to respondents, so the middle group is sizeable and there's no way to tell if any of them were likely to wrong-way vote. But Binder's finding here is consistent with the idea that our side was the likely net beneficiary of wrong-way voting.

And of course Binder's May 2009 attempt to gauge wrong-way voting is very unlikely to be of any value. Polls are best at detecting wrong-way voting as or before people vote, not afterwards, especially not six months afterwards, when accurate recollection of their confusion is unlikely.

You will also enjoy looking at Lewis & Gossett, cited in the Prop 8 Report. Their excellent paper analyzing the Field and PPIC data uses regression analysis to compare the plausibility of four competing hypotheses to explain the failure of the two polls to gauge what was happening. They make a compelling case for wrong-way voting as the most probable explanation.

MP: What do you say to people that your source of daily tracking poll data by Celinda Lake ends 5 days before the election and the election could have been decided in that time frame?

DF: The Lake data is the best data we have on Prop 8, and the best data set our community has ever had on any of these ballot measures. That said, it is imperfect in a variety of ways, including the one you mention. There could have been significant changes in voter opinion in those final days. The Lake data would of necessity not reveal that. However, to the extent that the Binder tracking polling data in the final days tell us anything, they do not suggest massive voter movement or anything other than trivial voter movement. See the charts in the report with Binder data and Lake data side by side and you'll see what I mean. Binder tracked until election day (but he didn't start until much much later than Lake, when most of the big movement had long occurred).

Thanks, Dave!

Federal Prop 8 Decision TOMORROW!

The American Foundation for Equal Rights has announced that the decision in the federal challenge to California's Proposition 8, Perry v. Schwarzenegger will be released tomorrow, Wednesday August 4th (Barack Obama's 49th birthday!)

Federal district court judge Vaughn Walker is widely expected to strike down Proposition 8, but his reasoning and the extent of his ruling should be very interesting. Ted Olson and David Boies were the attorneys for the plaintiffs.

UPDATE TUESDAY 08/03/2010 6:41PM

The decision will be released electronically on the federal court's website between 1pm and 3pm on Wednesday August 4th.

LAT Op-ed Summarizes Prop 8 Report Results

Dave Fleischer, the author of the newly released Prop 8 Report has an op-ed in today's Los Angeles Times called "Behind the numbers of Prop 8" where he summarizes the main results of his voluminous, 500-plus-page document:

After the election, a misleading finding from exit polls led many to blame African Americans for the loss. But in our new analysis, it appears that African Americans' views were relatively stable. True, a majority of African Americans opposed same-sex marriage, but that was true at the beginning and at the end of the campaign; few changed their minds in the closing weeks.

The shift, it turns out, was greatest among parents with children under 18 living at home — many of them white Democrats.

The numbers are staggering. In the last six weeks, when both sides saturated the airwaves with television ads, more than 687,000 voters changed their minds and decided to oppose same-sex marriage. More than 500,000 of those, the data suggest, were parents with children under 18 living at home. Because the proposition passed by 600,000 votes, this shift alone more than handed victory to proponents.

[...]

Another misconception was that those who voted for Proposition 8 were motivated by hate. This does not describe most of the 687,000 who changed their minds in the closing weeks. After all, they supported same-sex marriage before the opposition peeled them away. Yes, they turned out to be susceptible to an appeal based on anti-gay prejudice. But they were frightened by misinformation. No on 8's one TV ad that directly responded to the fear-mongering helped assuage some of the fear, but it was too little, too late.

One final false assumption by same-sex marriage supporters was that the election was so close that it will be easy to pass same-sex marriage the next time out.

It's true that the official election results — 52% to 48% — appeared quite close. But the truth is more complicated. The data we analyzed show that the No on 8 campaign benefitted from voter confusion.

Polling suggests that half a million people who opposed same-sex marriage mistakenly voted against the proposition. They were confused by the idea that a "no" vote was actually a vote for gay marriage. This "wrong-way voting" affected both sides, but overwhelmingly it helped the "no" side. Our analysis suggests that the division among California voters on same-sex marriage at the time of Proposition 8 was actually 54% to 46% — not so close. We are actually 1 million votes away from being able to reverse Proposition 8.

As I mentioned earlier, there is a public forum with Dave Fleischer at the LA Gay and Lesbian Center's Village at Ed Gould Plaza next Tuesday August 10 7-9pm.

VitaminWater Is Declared A Scam!

OMG! Vitaminwater has been ruled to be a marketing scam by a federal court. This is very sad to me because I love drinking Vitaminwater! I like the "dwnld" and "XXX" flavors. I never believed the "health claims" but I figured that it was better than drinking juice or Gatorade.

However, the Center for Science in the Public Interest points out that each 20 ounce bottle ofVitaminwater has 32.5 g of sugars. There is no Recommended Daily Allowance (RDA) of sugars, but official guidelines indicate that a good goal is at most 40g of sugars for someone who has 2000 calories per day.

The CSPI sued Coca-Cola over the claims the company makes for Vitaminwater and a federal judge refused to dismiss the lawsuit.

By including the suggestion that the product will “keep you healthy” or “help bring about a healthy state of physical and mental being” alongside such statements, the quoted language implies that the nutrient content of vitaminwater may help consumers maintain healthy dietary practices. I conclude, therefore, in light of the language and context in which they are used, that the statements on the “defense” and “B- Relaxed” labels constitute implied nutrient content claims which use the word “healthy.” Such claims are in violation of violation of FDA regulations because . . . vitaminwater achieves its nutritional content solely through fortification that violates FDA policy.

Now that I am more aware of how sugary Vitaminwater is, I will limit my consumption accordingly!

Hat/tip to Joe.My.God

Everything You Know About Prop 8 Is Wrong

Finally, the definitive report on what happened during the 2008 proposition 8 ballot measure fight is being told by Dave Fleischer of the LGBT Mentoring Project (former of the National Gay and Lesbian task Force) in a report to be released on Monday August 2nd.

UPDATED MON 08/02/2010 09:37AM

Apparently the Fleischer briefing tonight is a private invitation-only event. There will be a public briefing next week. MadProfessah will attend and see what tidbits I can share with y'all.

The public briefing is Tuesday August 10 at 7pm at the Village at Ed Gould Plaza (1625 N. McCadden Ave, Los Angeles, CA)

Sam Querrey Repeats As Champion in LA

ROBYN BECK/AFP/Getty Images

American Sam Querrey became the first person since Andre Agassi in 2001 to defend his title in Los Angeles by defeating the top seed, World #4 Andy Murray 5-7 7-6(2) 6-3 on Sunday.

MadProfessah had been invited to visit the tournament earlier in the week for a USTA Diversity event and saw Querey and James Blake lose a desultory doubles match to the excessively handsome (and eventual semifinalist) Feliciano Lopez and Jarko Tipsarevic.

Eye Candy: Rafael Leonidas

Rafael Leonidas is a smoking hot 25-year-old fitness model of Dominican descent who lives in Miami and New York City. He is today's Eye Candy. Guapo, no?

UK PM Cameron Salutes LGBT Inclusion

In today's Independent new British Prime Minister David Cameron has published an op-ed which celebrates the inclusion of the LGBT community in contemporary British society.

But as well as being a celebration, the Pink List is a reminder that we must go further. Yes, the UK is a world leader for lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender equality, but we cannot be complacent. As long as there are people out there feeling marginalised or threatened, we must continue to tackle prejudice.

Of course, politicians have a big part to play in that. When I first stood on the steps of Downing Street as Prime Minister I paid tribute to what the last government did to make our country a more open and tolerant place – and we're continuing that work. In June, the coalition government set out an ambitious programme which includes tackling bullying in schools, changing the law on historical convictions for gay sex that is now legal and commencing the Equality Act. It's also important that we maintain the drive on tackling hate crime in our communities and promoting better recording of homophobic attacks. Violent crimes like those committed on Ian Baynham and James Parks – which happen simply on account of someone's sexuality – are disgusting and we must do everything possible to stop them happening.

[...]

But making this country a more equal, open place isn't just a job for government alone. The truth is we will never really tackle homophobia in schools, the workplace or in sport just by passing laws. We need a culture change as well.

There's no single lever we can pull or even collection of measures that we can take to make that happen. The wall of prejudice is also chipped away by high-profile role models, by public celebrations, by a positive approach to diversity. That's why I am proud that there are now more openly gay MPs in the Conservative Party than any other party. It's why I wish the upcoming Pride events – today in Leeds, all week in Brighton and on Saturday in Liverpool – every success. And it's why I congratulate everyone on this list for doing their bit to inspire and change attitudes. This is a country where people can be proud of who they are – and quite right too.