538 Claims Marriage Equality Support Accelerating

Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com has analyzed the polling on public support for marriage equality and notes that there appears to be an acceleration in the rate at which support for legal recognition for gay and lesbian couples is increasing.

Something to bear in mind is that it's only been fairly recently that gay rights groups -- and other liberals and libertarians -- shifted toward a strategy of explicitly calling for full equity in marriage rights, rather than finding civil unions to be an acceptable compromise. While there is not necessarily zero risk of backlash resulting from things like court decisions -- support for gay marriage slid backward by a couple of points, albeit temporarily, after a Massachusetts' court's ruling in 2003 that same-sex marriage was required by that state's constitution -- it seems that, in general, "having the debate" is helpful to the gay marriage cause, probably because the secular justifications against it are generally quite weak.

In mathematical terms we we would say that the second derivative (the rate of the rate of increase) is positive, but you can just notice that there is an uptick in the blue graph at the end.

But no matter how you analyze it, it shows that the National Organization for Marriage will be out of business soon. Hurray!