Field in Leno-Migden Race Shrinks

According to Brian Leubitz at Calitics, the Democratic field in State Senate District #3 that Mad Professah has been following closely has narrowed recently from a four-way race to a three-way race when San Francisco Police Commissioner Joe Alioto Veronese. Senate District 3 is currently represented by openly lesbian Carole Migden and she is being challenged by openly gay Assemblymember Mark Leno who is termed out this year and former Assemblyman Joe Nation in the June Democratic primary.

The most recent polling has shown that Migden is in trouble of holding her seat:

A poll taken last week by David Binder found State Senate District 3 a two-way contest between challengers Joe Nation and Mark Leno, with incumbent Carole Migden trailing badly. Binder, who is San Francisco’s leading pollster and has been busy surveying for Barack Obama, found that Nation led Leno 27-24% on the initial ask, with Migden trailing at 17%. When pro and con statements about the candidates were read, the Leno-Nation numbers reversed, with Migden remaining at 17%. Joe Alioto Veronese was at 7 and 10%, and nearly a quarter of the electorate remains undecided.

In addition, Migden is in a legal dispute with the California Fair Political Practices Commission over money (nearly a million dollars) that she wants to spend in this race which she raised years ago when she was a Assemblyperson before she was elected to the State Board of Equalization and State Senate.

If the Binder poll numbers hold there will be strong pressure for Migden to drop out in April or May lest the seat that has been held by an openly gay San Francisco Democrat fall into the hands of a staight, more conservative Marin County man.