CA-32: Chu Makes Her Intention To Run Clear

Judy Chu has made it official: she is running for California's 32nd Congressional district. An article in yesterday's Los Angeles Times carried her annoncement as well as interesting analysis of various politicians chances of winning the seat:

In an interview with The Times on Monday evening, Chu said she made the decision to run Sunday after days of urging from supporters.

"I've decided to heed those calls," she said. "I know this district very, very well and I believe the people of this district know me and know I'm very devoted to the San Gabriel Valley."
[...]

Romero could not be reached Monday afternoon, but said publicly last week that she would pursue the seat. A staunch labor supporter, Romero was elected to her state Senate seat in 2001, replacing Solis. She had previously served in the Assembly and said she represented the district at the state level for 10 years.

She would have an important leg up on Chu, according to political consultants.

"Most people believe a Latino would be favored," said Allan Hoffenblum, publisher of the California Target Book, a nonpartisan publication that analyzes and handicaps legislative races.

He said about 48% of the district's voters are Latino. Asians are the second-largest group, making up 13% of the vote.

But if several Latino candidates split the Latino vote, he said, a strong Asian candidate could put together Asian and white voters and take a majority.

Perhaps an even larger factor, said Democratic political strategist Steve Maviglio, is who the Los Angeles Federation of Labor backs, and how strongly.

"They have the most horses in the county. They have the most money. If they put all their firepower behind one candidate, it's pretty much over," he said.

That's partly because most special elections have turnouts below 20%, which he said favor grass-roots, get-out-the vote campaigns that are labor's strength.

Another interesting aspect of the race is that apparently there is not a residency requirement for the special election, so theoretically any big name Latino politician could consider running for the seat. Fabian Nunez, anyone? Then again he's a bit busy right now keeping his son out of jail!