New Poll Shows Increased Support For Marriage Equality

Newsweek magazine is reporting about a new poll by Princeton Research Associates that shows increased public support for civil marriage rights for all people. They polled 1007 people and have a margin of error of +/- 3.7 points.

Barack Obama's approval rating is 72 percent.

a. Legally-sanctioned gay and lesbian unions or partnerships
             YES NO   DON'T KNOW
CURRENT TOTAL 55  36    9
Men           52  38   10
Women         59  33    8
White         57  36    7
Non-White     54  34   12
18-34         58  31   11
35-44         65  29    6
45-64         56  39    5
65+           42  44   14
b. Legally-sanctioned gay and lesbian marriages
CURRENT TOTAL 39  55   6
Men           34  59   7
Women         44  50   6
White         40  55   5
Non-White     37  54   9
18-34         51  40   9
35-44         43  54   3
45-64         38  58   4
65+           22  69   9
See Marriage as Legal Matter (Q14)
             66  29   5
See Marriage as Religious Matter/Both (Q14)
             27  67   6

Note that equal marriage rights for same-sex couples is still opposed by a majority of respondents and every demographic except for 18-34. The poll also points out that the main source of opposition is religious dogma. For people who see marriage as a purely legal matter, 66% support equal marriage rights while 67% of people who see marriage as a religious matter or some combination of legal and religious matter oppose equal marriage rights.

13. Gay marriage can also be an issue at the state level. Suppose YOUR STATE held an election where you could vote for or against an amendment to the state constitution that would ban gay marriage. Would you be more likely to vote “yes” in favor of OR “no” against a ban on gay marriage in your state?

             Yes, favor ban     No, against ban     DON'T KNOW
Total         45                 49                         6
Men           50                 43                         7
Women         41                 55                         4
White         45                 50                         5
Non-white     45                 47                         8
18-34         37                 56                         7
35-44         47                 50                         3
45-64         52                 44                         4
65+           43                 47                        10

The interesting question here, is what should the polling look like before we are confident that a repeal of Proposition 8 would pass? I would say that we are not there yet. I believe that we can not win a popular initiative campaign to legalize gay marriage unless and until the TOTAL poll number on whether ``gay and lesbian" marriage should be legally sanctioned is above 50%. And even that is a NECESSARY condition, not a SUFFICIENT condition to win such an electoral battle, because one never knows whether the polled population and those who turn out to vote will be the same.

The second question is Jun 2010 (Primary) or November 2010 (General Election)?